The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[eman92]

I feel like The Nun II isn't gonna break out like the first one did. I feel like it isn't selling too well at my local theater, or at least not as much as I thought it would. I'm sure it'll still do 30M+ but I know some people thought it would do 40-50M, which I'd be very surprised to see at this point. Things can change or maybe it'll be walk up heavy.

 

Also how the hell did the Exorcist already get their tickets on sale a whole month out, and especially with them moving up a week. The Nun II, Venice and Saw X are all getting just 9-10 days presales before release date. Equalizer only got 2 weeks so I'm surprised to see Exorcist already on sale.

[vafrow]

On 9/4/2023 at 7:09 AM, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, southern Ontario, T-40 (7 am pull)

 

Total sales:  19,783

New Sales: 284

Growth from yesterday: 1%

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  214

Tickets per showtime: 92.4

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Another small growth day. I likely won't be able to do as many updates as my routine changes a bit as kids go back to school. These updates are also unwieldly, and I'm pretty sure method is producing some inaccuracies.

 

I think in general, we'll need to see what happens this week as people get back into the regular routines, and as this event hits the radar of general audiences.

 

I agree with the sentiment that there isn't this stark divide between Swifties and non fans. There's a large group in the middle that enjoy her songs, and, for 10 cents on the dollar for what one of her concert tickets usually sell for, can be convinced to check this out if the hype is high.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, southern Ontario, T-38 (9 pm pull)

 

Total sales:  20,852

New Sales: 1069

Growth from Monday morning: 5%

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  214

Tickets per showtime: 97.4

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Sales perked up a bit today, but, I also think I undercounted last time, so, the jump may be a bit overstated. Still, it seems reasonable that sales would increase today as people settle in after the long weekend.

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

More like The None

[VanillaSkies]

Oh, AMC just added some 1am IMAX showings for Ears Tour Friday night. Looks like they will be adding shows right through the next month as demand dictates.

[keysersoze123]

Nun 2 MTC1 previews - 18376/402437 358222.04 2181 shows

 

I dont have any clue about daily pace. But I would say 3m previews is in play if it plays similar to most horror flicks.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T - 39) - 484713/740701 10243907.57 4324 shows +6334

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T - 38) - 488280/750996 10321017.20 4410 shows

 

Slowed down quite a bit. Its adding few late shows as others have said. Those have not made a big difference at this point. I expect sat/sun to drive big part of sales until closer to release when I expect more prime time shows added.

[misterpepp]

7 hours ago, datpepper said:

 

No general tix sale date yet, but the early access shows go on sale on Sep 7.

 

I've been told the general tix sales may start the same day as the early access after all. We shall see!

[MovieMan89]

On 9/2/2023 at 2:20 PM, YM! said:

So Swift is easily going to be the biggest movie of the October to December season right?

I don’t think it’s hitting 400 DOM, but I think Wonka is if King brings his Paddington quality A game. Feel the same about that movie as a huge breakout as I did about Mario and Barbie 

[tonytr87]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don’t think it’s hitting 400 DOM, but I think Wonka is if King brings his Paddington quality A game. Feel the same about that movie as a huge breakout as I did about Mario and Barbie 

 

Say what? Even with big presales you know legs are going to be shit. I see Eras topping out at 200 mil DOM max. 

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Say what? Even with big presales you know legs are going to be shit. I see Eras topping out at 200 mil DOM max.

Hence why I said I don’t think it will be the #1 release of the Oct-Dec stretch?? Though I do think 200 is waaay too low of a total for Eras when we might be like 80% there on OW….

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Say what? Even with big presales you know legs are going to be shit. I see Eras topping out at 200 mil DOM max. 

We really know? The phenomenon is really unpredictable.

 

With his atp even if only 1.5M fans went back to second weekend you already have 30-35M second weekend.

We don't know about It but i don't know .. this 100M First weekend 150M Total run looks with not much sense to me. 

Edited September 6, 2023 by vale9001

[Porthos]

At the risk of starting a multi-page argument, if folks want to give me a ballpark/estimated/good-enough-for-governmenttracking-work/spitball estimate for the ATP of the Taylor Swift concert film I can use that against the official current NATO ATPs for the last couple of years and give a slightly better sense where current comps out of Sacramento are pointing to.

 

What I am not looking for: A hyper-exact bullseye figure.

What I am looking for: Something better than nothing.

 

Honestly, even within 5% to 10% of what the ATP ends up being is probs good enough.  At least for now.

 

If I get a consensus that feel right (to me at least), likely to use it in some form in my coming charts.

 

(this is a one-time ask, for this event film only.  In all other cases, I'll just use my own historical comps + my own sense of judgement)

[Hilts]

On 9/4/2023 at 8:50 PM, Hilts said:

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	18	37	0	1	50	4,136	1.21%
T-6	19	38	0	6	56	4,167	1.34%
T-5	19	38	0	4	60	4,167	1.44%
T-4	19	38	0	4	64	4,167	1.54%
T-3	20	41	0	9	73	4,364	1.67%
Comps
Strays					0.437x	=	$0.48m
Joy Ride					0.753x	=	$0.83m
Asteroid City					0.579x	=	$0.64m
No Hard Feelings					0.537x	=	$1.15m

 

Bit better. Comp average = $780k

 

 

The Nun II							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	22	83	0	61	61	16,223	0.38%
T-6	23	84	0	30	91	16,293	0.56%
T-5	23	84	0	10	101	16,293	0.62%
T-4	23	84	0	5	106	16,293	0.65%
T-3	23	84	0	42	148	16,293	0.91%
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.800x	=	$4.00m
Talk To Me					2.792x	=	$3.48m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.691x	=	$2.02m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.587x	=	$1.88m

 

Much better. Comp average = $2.84m

 

Meg not a great comp for me but just kept there due to the same short sale window, so ignore if you wish.

 

Demeter does really poorly next couple of days so that will rise quickly.

 

Catching Insidious will be tough (monster final day growth, best I've tracked) but won't rule it out yet.

 

These were counted at my normal time I just didn't have time to post earlier. Busy night setting up Exorcist and Haunting in Venice too (it is just me or is there a LOT of horror coming up).

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-6	19	38	0	6	56	4,167	1.34%
T-5	19	38	0	4	60	4,167	1.44%
T-4	19	38	0	4	64	4,167	1.54%
T-3	20	41	0	9	73	4,364	1.67%
T-2	21	45	0	12	85	4,559	1.86%
Comps
Strays					0.452x	=	$0.50m
Joy Ride					0.450x	=	$0.49m
Asteroid City					0.515x	=	$0.57m
No Hard Feelings					0.452x	=	$0.97m

 

Comp average = $630k

 

As it keeps falling, unless this picks up thinking ~$500k. Even with very good IM doubtful it reaches $10m OW.

 

The Nun II							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-6	23	84	0	30	91	16,293	0.56%
T-5	23	84	0	10	101	16,293	0.62%
T-4	23	84	0	5	106	16,293	0.65%
T-3	23	84	0	42	148	16,293	0.91%
T-2	23	87	0	65	213	16,822	1.27%
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.772x	=	$3.86m
Talk To Me					2.366x	=	$2.95m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.958x	=	$2.22m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.607x	=	$1.94m

 

Comp average = $2.75m

 

Seeing similar range to Abracadabra. If it follows Insidious late surge I could see $3.5m maybe. Tricky to get to $40m OW now but let's see.

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

At the risk of starting a multi-page argument, if folks want to give me a ballpark/estimated/good-enough-for-governmenttracking-work/spitball estimate for the ATP of the Taylor Swift concert film I can use that against the official current NATO ATPs for the last couple of years and give a slightly better sense where current comps out of Sacramento are pointing to.

 

What I am not looking for: A hyper-exact bullseye figure.

What I am looking for: Something better than nothing.

 

Honestly, even within 5% to 10% of what the ATP ends up being is probs good enough.  At least for now.

 

If I get a consensus that feel right (to me at least), likely to use it in some form in my coming charts.

 

(this is a one-time ask, for this event film only.  In all other cases, I'll just use my own historical comps + my own sense of judgement)

 

imo opinion you should considered 25% of the tickets children (0-12) + seniors (13.13 dollars) + 75% with 19.89 dollars tickets.

(standard screening)

For Imax screenings (right now the ones have sold more tickets with no surprise) tickets are 18.13 seniors + children, 24.89 standard ticket (25%-75% seems always a good split).

 

In my opinion atp right now it's like 21.50-22 dollars 😅

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by vale9001

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

imo opinion you should considered 25% of the tickets children (0-12) + seniors (13.13 dollars) + 75% with 19.89 dollars tickets.

(standard screening)

For Imax screenings (right now the ones have sold more tickets with no surprise) tickets are 18.13 seniors + children, 24.89 standard ticket (25%-75% seems always a good split).

 

In my opinion atp right now it's like 21.50-22 dollars 😅

 

 

FWIW, in my market PLF sales account for 33% of all sales in the region and that number will go down as the PLF seats are capped and standard showings very much aren't (might fluctuate a bit up and down in the short/medium term as lesser tiered PLF theaters fill up their showtimes or get added/if the TrueIMAX local theater gets it, but the overall trajectory only has one direction to go, IMO).

 

Probably about now is when I should light the Bat Signal for @M37, who commented during Oppenheimer's run that a 6pm preview start time was a particularly bad one for a long movie like Oppenheimer as it knee-capped later showings.  

 

My thoughts on this for The Era Tours aren't quite solidified yet, but I'll note it too is a loooooong movie which is capping PLF showings big time on Friday.  Overall, showings in the 9pm range are still selling relatively well.  10pm range?  Well doing better than most films, but still dropping fairly sharply.  Anything 10:45pm and beyond right now is practically a ghost town.

 

Now we are 38 days from release as of today's sales, so still lots of time for rapid fans to buy later in the night seats.  But I am curious to see how the late night showings eventually fill up.

 

Mind, this is an ad-hoc just glancing at the numbers feeling.  If I have time tomorrow, might break out sales by start time (either 15 min, 30 min or 60 min intervals) and see if my gut read is in fact correct.

[Porthos]

On 9/5/2023 at 12:49 AM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-39 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	133	11521	18246	6725	36.86%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	510
Total Seats Sold Today	180

 

(SOME COMPS RETURNING SOON-ISH)

 

Regal:     2028/6150  [32.98% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

23.86% of No Way Home's final total      [11.93m]

31.85% of Doctor Strange 2's final total [11.46m]

40.03% of Black Panther 2's final total.  [11.21m]

74.84% of Avatar 2's final total                [12.72m]

145.53% of Oppenheimer's final total     [15.28m]

55.68% of Barbie's final total                  [12.42m]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-38 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	135	11519	18333	6814	37.17%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	87
Total Seats Sold Today	89

 

(BP2 COMP RETURNING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS)

 

Regal:     2065/6150  [33.58% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

24.18% of No Way Home's final total      [12.09m]

32.27% of Doctor Strange 2's final total [11.62m]

40.56% of Black Panther 2's final total.  [11.36m]

75.83% of Avatar 2's final total                [12.89m]

147.46% of Oppenheimer's final total     [15.48m]

56.42% of Barbie's final total                  [12.58m]

[vafrow]

On 9/5/2023 at 5:12 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Nun 2, Thursday previews T-3, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  277

New Sales: 88

Growth from Sunday evening: 47%

Theatre Count:  48

Showtimes:  115

Tickets per showtime: 2.409

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Comps

0.642x Equalizer 3 for $2.4M

0.473x Blue Beetle for $1.6M

 

It continues to edge up against comps.

 

The Nun 2, Thursday previews T-2, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  429

New Sales: 152

Growth from yesterday: 55%

Theatre Count:  48

Showtimes:  115

Tickets per showtime: 3.730

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Comps

0.753x Equalizer 3 for $2.9M

0.570x Blue Beetle for $1.9M

 

The growth rate continues to be really strong. It's been outpacing the comps daily. I'm not sure if that's just more typical of horror, or if the combination of short sales window and coming off a long weekend.

 

Interestingly, it still only has one screen at my local theater for Thursday previews, but on Friday, it's getting two screens at my local. There seems to be confidence in it.

Edited September 6, 2023 by vafrow

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, vale9001 said:

 

imo opinion you should considered 25% of the tickets children (0-12) + seniors (13.13 dollars) + 75% with 19.89 dollars tickets.

(standard screening)

For Imax screenings (right now the ones have sold more tickets with no surprise) tickets are 18.13 seniors + children, 24.89 standard ticket (25%-75% seems always a good split).

 

In my opinion atp right now it's like 21.50-22 dollars 😅

 

I’d go for a 5:1 adult split is 18.76 for standard/23.76 for imax. Not sure where final imax % will settle based on showing availability in the region, @Porthos should have the better idea there, but something like $19.5-20ish probably what I’d use (15-25% imax).

[el sid]

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3, counted yesterday for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 51 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 35 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 57 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 164.

Comps (all three films counted on the same day, Tuesday of the release week, for Thursday):
Downton Abby 2 (1M from previews) had 125 sold tickets,
80 for Brady (1.3M) had 120
and DWD (3.1M from previews on Thursday and Monday) had 589 sold tickets.
Ticket to Paradise (1.1M) had 101 sold tickets on Wednesday (=1 day later)

and TLC (2.5M) had also on Wednesday 520 sold tickets.
No Hard Feelings (2.15M) finally (=on Thursday for Thursday) had 368 sold tickets.

Not that bad IMO. At the moment I would say that it should reach at least over 1M from previews.

[M37]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

Probably about now is when I should light the Bat Signal for @M37, who commented during Oppenheimer's run that a 6pm preview start time was a particularly bad one for a long movie like Oppenheimer as it knee-capped later showings

Fwiw, Oppy was a 5pm start, not 6pm, but same principles apply

 

ERAS is going to run into similar issues with showings keeping a lid on potential for what is essentially the preview night on Friday. Now one thing I will note is that the gap between shows is shorter than what the running time would suggest; not sure if they are planning an abbreviated trailer set for this release or just going to run the ushers into the ground cleaning between shows, but its 3:30 instead of the expected 3:45 (or 4:00 like we saw for Oppy) so that helps, but ...

 

The typical show set (if screens allow) will run every half hour from 6p-1030/11p, for 10 or 11 shows (unless location/market make sense to run later). For comparison, a typical 3pm MCU preview start would net about 18-20 shows for a similar screen allocation. Some busier locations have already started adding in shows on the 15s (like 615/945), so can squeeze maybe 6-8 more shows (again, if screens allow). And its a Friday, not a Thursday, and a younger skewing audience than Oppy, so that will help later night shows, but in general I expect a wall will be hit at some point and business pushed to Sat/Sun instead