The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

KotFM, counted yesterday for Friday, October 20. 22 days left:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 41 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 22 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes, new)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 2 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 175 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 346 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 586. 
 

25% up since Tuesday.
Comps (all three films counted for Friday): Crawdads (5M true Friday) had on Thursday of the release week (= 21 days left for KotFM to increase the margin) 262 sold tickets.
Dune (12.4M) had 1.419 sold tickets with 17 days left.
And Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (11.1M true Friday; running time 2 hrs 41 min) had on Monday of the release week (= 18 days left to overtake) 837 sold tickets = 70% for KotFM (up from 56% on Tuesday).
 

Some worried that it couldn't get enough shows. It has at the moment 35 showings in my theaters. For comparison, Gran Turismo finally had 46 and The Nun II finally had 57. So very probably it won't get as many as The Nun II had but I expect an average number (in my theaters).

By the way, Saw X had a nice jump today, the best of all days. I have to search for Friday comps and will report later.

[Shawn Robbins]

Official Preview Results

The Creator: $1.6M (includes $250K pre-Thursday)

Dumb Money: TBD

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie: none

Saw X: $2.0M

[Shawn Robbins]

1.6 Creator

[vafrow]

I was hoping they would report Paw Patrols number, as it would give a rare chance to get Canada specific reporting. But it's likely to just get rolled into Friday figures.

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, Shawn said:

1.6 Creator

Does it include early shows on Wednesday or do they add them to friday gross as had been done for many recent movies like MI7 and TMNT. 

[eman92]

32 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Official Preview Results

The Creator: $1.6M

Dumb Money: TBD

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie: none

Saw X: $2.0M

I'm happy with a 2.0M for Saw after everything felt like it was going to come in around 1.6-1.8M yesterday. Still sad to me it couldn't do 2.5-3M in previews, but I will take a 2.0! Jigsaw did 1.6M in previews so I'm expecting Saw X to do better than Jigsaw.

 

I'm hoping somehow it can maybe do 22-24M if Friday and Saturday are very strong because of reviews. In my book that would be a solid opening for Saw X. At the very least I'm hoping it can do 20M OW which would still be a success, just much less than what I was anticipating earlier in the week. 

[Shawn Robbins]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Does it include early shows on Wednesday or do they add them to friday gross as had been done for many recent movies like MI7 and TMNT. 

Probably rolled into Thursday, but still waiting on confirmation.

[DAJK]

You know that BOT is spoiled rotten when @Shawn is here himself providing numbers first. If this isn't truly the best place on the internet for those of us who follow box office, I don't know what is.

[Jsmitty]

11 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Probably rolled into Thursday, but still waiting on confirmation.

FWIW Deadline stating Wednesday numbers are included in the 1.6 figure

[Pinacolada]

1 minute ago, Jsmitty said:

FWIW Deadline stating Wednesday numbers are included in the 1.6 figure

All I know is pain

[jeffthehat]

On 9/28/2023 at 9:26 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-15

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 106 (+1)

Seats sold - 6069

Total seats - 17681 

% sold - 34.3%

New sales - 86 (+1.4%)

6-day average of new sales - 86.2 tickets/day

 

Social media bump could be lingering. Could also be the start of the upward trend. 

 

Comp at my local theater

 

Barbie T-2 Hours (1.17x) - $26.12m / $37.9m ATP adjusted

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-14

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 106

Seats sold - 6157

Total seats - 17681

% sold - 34.8%

New sales - 85 (+1.4%)

7-day average of new sales - 86 tickets/day

 

Looks like it's trended up here. 

 

Weekly growth

 

T-34 to T-28: +376 (+7.7%)

T-27 to T-21: +240 (+4.5%)

T-20 to T-14: +576 (+10.1%)

 

Comp at my local Malco

 

Barbie T-2 hours (1.19x) - $26.7m / $38.5m ATP Adjusted (+45%)

 

 

[keysersoze123]

That is beyond awful for Creator. It over indexed more than any other movie I have ever tracked :-) Saw X on the other hand under indexed big time. I think with these small openers I can rather spin the wheel :-)

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/29/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
10/6/2023	Dicks: The Musical (Limited)						A24
10/6/2023	The Exorcist: Believer	$21,000,000 – $31,000,000			$48,000,000 – $79,000,000		Universal Pictures
10/6/2023	Foe						Amazon Studios
10/6/2023	Cat Person						Rialto Pictures
10/6/2023	Freeland						Freelance
10/6/2023	Untitled Focus Features Film						Focus Features
10/13/2023	Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour	$105,000,000 – $155,000,000			TBD		AMC Theatres / Variance Films
10/20/2023	Killers of the Flower Moon	$27,000,000 – $36,000,000			$90,000,000 – $134,000,000		Paramount Pictures / Apple Studios
10/20/2023	Soul Mates						Faith Media Distribution
10/27/2023	After Death						Angel Studios
10/27/2023	Five Nights at Freddy’s	$33,000,000 – $42,000,000			$60,000,000 – $90,000,000		Universal Pictures / Blumhouse
10/27/2023	Freelance						Relativity Media
10/27/2023	Sight						Briarcliff Entertainment

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-five-nights-at-freddys/

[vafrow]

32 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is beyond awful for Creator. It over indexed more than any other movie I have ever tracked 🙂 Saw X on the other hand under indexed big time. I think with these small openers I can rather spin the wheel 🙂

 

Both of mine were completely off.

 

I think both of these films had some big regional differences. 

 

But, even with my estimates off, the ratio between Saw X and Creator seemed to be on point. Creator was 75% of Saw, and if you estimate $100K for early access, it's pretty much spot on.

 

With my data for the region only being very recent films, my comps might just be off.

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

1.6 Creator

$250K was from pre-Thu. Haven't received a confirmation on whether that's included in 1.6, but as @Jsmitty  mentioned Deadline is saying that it is.

 

Edit: Studios confirmed as well.

[Eric Lasagna]

Quorum Updates

Dumb Money T-1: 29.97% Awareness

Killers of the Flower Moon T-22: 31.86%

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-50: 34.32%

Napoleon T-55: 22.42%

Wish T-55: 29.14%

Wonka T-78: 52.56%

 

The Creator T-1: 33.51% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 43% chance of 10M

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie T-1: 37.88% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Saw X T-1: 47.26% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 32% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 83% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 40M

 

The Exorcist: Believer T-8: 46.92% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 32% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 83% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 40M

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

(0.462x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.53M THUR Previews

(0.194x) of RoTB ~$1.71M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.62M

 

Quote

 

Official Preview Results

The Creator: $1.6M (includes $250K pre-Thursday)

Dumb Money: TBD

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie: none

Saw X: $2.0M

 

 

My The Creator projection was close enough, but Saw X overindexed by $500k here. Also S/O to @Hilts for that insanely accurate Creators EA projection. Looks like El Sid $15M OW prediction is coming to fruition. BOT tracking team is amazing👏 

[el sid]

Saw X, counted today (ca. 7 hours ago) for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 306 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 84 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 34 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 53 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 104 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 348 (9 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 936.

Up nice 50.5% since yesterday.
Comps (I was too lazy to search more films and the good jump is more important anyway; all three films counted on Friday for Friday): Crawl (3.4M true Friday) had 571 sold tickets = 5.6M.
The Woman King (4.9M) had 792 = 5.8M.

and Expend4bles (3.55M) had 344 sold tickets = 9.25M.
So 6.9M true Friday on average.

With solid preview numbers, for this series stellar reviews and good WOM 20M are my goal now. Maybe Smile's OW (22.6M) is possible?

[Hilts]

20 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Saw X							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-4	21	55	0	26	128	8,401	1.52%
T-3	21	55	0	41	169	8,401	2.01%
T-2	23	66	0	62	231	9,411	2.45%
T-1	23	68	0	160	391	9,593	4.08%
T-0	23	67	0	178	569	9,540	5.96%
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.467x	=	$2.33m
Talk To Me					1.835x	=	$2.29m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.574x	=	$1.84m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.115x	=	$1.59m
The Nun II					0.781x	=	$2.42m
Expend4bles					2.231x	=	$1.67m

 

Not the ending I hoped. Worst final day growth I have tracked but that is caveated with me noting T-1 numbers later than usual and I guess everyone bought yesterday when the embargo dropped.

 

I would guess $2.25m based on my final data but would not be surprised with $2m now or just missing that.

 

20 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-4	3	3	0	8	39	1,224	3.19%
T-3	3	3	0	2	41	1,224	3.35%
T-2	3	3	0	19	60	1,224	4.90%
T-1	3	3	0	17	77	1,224	6.29%
T-0	3	3	0	44	121	1,224	9.89%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-4	20	45	0	15	144	9,394	1.53%
T-3	20	45	0	41	185	9,394	1.97%
T-2	23	55	0	50	235	11,291	2.08%
T-1	24	58	0	97	332	11,754	2.82%
T-0	24	58	0	142	474	11,754	4.03%
Comps
Asteroid City					1.390x	=	$1.53m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.189x	=	$1.67m
Haunted Mansion					0.497x	=	$1.54m
Strays					1.299x	=	$1.43m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					2.347x	=	$1.29m
A Haunting In Venice					1.476x	=	$1.77m

 

Again final day growth not great but I did take T-1 numbers later than normal so looks worse than it is.

 

This has been ~$1.5m for me for a while so I will stick with that, +$200k-$250k EA.

 

30 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

My The Creator projection was close enough, but Saw X overindexed by $500k here. Also S/O to @Hilts for that insanely accurate Creators EA projection. Looks like El Sid $15M OW prediction is coming to fruition. BOT tracking team is amazing👏 

 

I concur with the earlier sentiment that this is one of the best threads on the internet.

 

Unfortunately previews didn't turn out as strong as we hoped but I am at least happy with the accuracy. My comp average for Saw was actually bang-on $2m I just decided to split down the middle between that and Nun. Was just a tad high on Creator but nailed the EA which is nice - I am starting to feel useful!

 

Great job to all the trackers.

[Hilts]

On 9/28/2023 at 7:54 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-11	20	74	0	6	91	15,606	0.58%
T-10	20	74	0	9	100	15,606	0.64%
T-9	22	79	0	17	117	16,150	0.72%
T-8	22	80	0	7	124	16,341	0.76%
T-7	22	80	0	5	129	16,341	0.79%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.544x	=	$1.69m
Asteroid City					1.344x	=	$1.48m
Strays					1.418x	=	$1.56m
A Haunting In Venice					1.955x	=	$2.35m
Talk To Me					4.300x	=	$5.35m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					4.778x	=	$3.58m
Insidious: The Red Door					1.518x	=	$7.59m
The Nun II					2.115x	=	$6.56m

 

Added some horror comps. These should change swiftly with their shorter presale windows.

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-10	20	74	0	9	100	15,606	0.64%
T-9	22	79	0	17	117	16,150	0.72%
T-8	22	80	0	7	124	16,341	0.76%
T-7	22	80	0	5	129	16,341	0.79%
T-6	22	80	0	10	139	16,341	0.85%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.460x	=	$1.43m
Strays					1.350x	=	$1.48m
A Haunting In Venice					1.675x	=	$2.01m
Talk To Me					4.344x	=	$5.41m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					4.484x	=	$3.36m
Insidious: The Red Door					1.448x	=	$7.24m
The Nun II					1.527x	=	$4.74m
The Creator					0.908x	=	$1.45m
Saw X					1.580x	=	$3.16m

 

Aaand back to the grind. Still not entirely sure where this will settle. Longer window comps still pointing around $1.5m for now (including Creator now that's confirmed), should start to ramp up in a couple of days and I guess it's just a wait and see on how the horror comps eventually tally. Have a decent number in the genre now to feel more confident in prediction accuracy.