The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Jake4]

53 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Renaissance MTC1 

Previews - 72119/288062 1829895.00 1407 shows

Friday - 51997/633288 1329930.00 2995 shows

 

Already Friday pace is much better. Bodes well for good multi over the weekend. That said this is gonna over index here more than even Eras. 

Is it possible this could do at least 40m opening weekend in the states? what are you predictions for opening weekend

[Shawn Robbins]

Deadline's $30m for Exorcist comes from studio sources, but... I dunno. This is one I'd rather be careful on, much like Saw X last week, and be pleasantly surprised if it can significantly over-perform all of these data points in front of me. Going under for the final forecast today.

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, Jake4 said:

Is it possible this could do at least 40m opening weekend in the states? what are you predictions for opening weekend

Too early to make a call. It has 3 full days plus previews unlike Eras. But its doing way worse than Eras in smaller markets compared to MTC1. But Eras was 70%+ full by OD presales while here there is greater potential of growth. This also has really long presale cycle and so we will not see that much happening until close to release or Beyonce is doing something to up the ante. 

 

If put a gun on my head I would say over for 40m. 

[vafrow]

For Exorcist, for southern Ontario region for MTC4, eyeballing sales (as the best I can really offer right now) , it's doing worse than Saw (which overindexed here), but probably a bit better than Nun 2 (which likely under indexed here, and threw off comps for me that came after).

[keysersoze123]

I am shocked there are chatter around Freddy's having 15m previews !!! I know Sacramento numbers are really strong but nothing about the presales is screaming that big a number. Its release is relatively quite small so far and hybrid release could impact that as well. 

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am shocked there are chatter around Freddy's having 15m previews !!! I know Sacramento numbers are really strong but nothing about the presales is screaming that big a number. Its release is relatively quite small so far and hybrid release could impact that as well. 

The pace after day one is solid. It can still slow down but I hope $10M happen.

[M37]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

I know comps are limited - and many falling - but count me in the $30M+ camp for Exorcist.  Keep in mind Nun II had only an 8-day presale period, with a holiday weekend in the middle, so dropping vs those comps should have been expected, including not keeping pace on the post-holiday T-2 catch-up day. I don't know if it will quite match Nun II's pace over the last 2 days given the longer presale window, but the Blumhouse brand is strong and I expect the usual (and female skewing) horror crowd will show up (unlike Saw X, which was 57% M)

 

Something like ~$3.5M Thursday, not ruling out $4M/$40M OW

 

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

Deadline's $30m for Exorcist comes from studio sources, but... I dunno. This is one I'd rather be careful on, much like Saw X last week, and be pleasantly surprised if it can significantly over-perform all of these data points in front of me. Going under for the final forecast today.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

$10M for FNAF seems possible depending on its pace in sales throughout the month.

[Tinalera]

On 10/1/2023 at 9:21 AM, vafrow said:

Just a heads up, Cineplex has upgraded their app. 

 

I just downloaded the new version, and it's going to make my updates a lot harder to execute.

 

I'm going to play around with it a bit, but, I might have to change my approach, and may not be able to cover as many theatres.

 

Edit: It's worse than I thought. They no longer display the amount of seats sold or still available. I don't have the skill or patience of @Tinalerato do the manual counting.

Yep I wondered when the APP stuff would change over to not showing sales. I do get not having that patience. Its why Im in the process now of counting seats in theatre on my pages, keeping a "total seats" for each theatre, and they being AVX/IMAX/VIP ect

 

Im doing it on a PC so its a little easier to zoom in and count (and I am doing it in small stages, hence why I havent been posting counts lately (also real world stuff and busyness).

 

Its a serious pain in the tush though I agree. 

Edited October 4, 2023 by Tinalera

[Tinalera]

So are we going to be seeing a plethora of concert films in the near future now with Swift and now Beyonce I wonder?

[vafrow]

12 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Yep I wondered when the APP stuff would change over to not showing sales. I do get not having that patience. Its why Im in the process now of counting seats in theatre on my pages, keeping a "total seats" for each theatre, and they being AVX/IMAX/VIP ect

 

Im doing it on a PC so its a little easier to zoom in and count (and I am doing it in small stages, hence why I havent been posting counts lately (also real world stuff and busyness).

 

Its a serious pain in the tush though I agree. 

 

I only do updates from my phone, but, I've had people reach out to me to offer a script that can do the pulls automatically. I don't have a PC that I can install stuff like that though.

 

You might want to look into that to ease the burden. But, I'm not a techy, so no idea how it works.

[Hilts]

Seeing Marvels showtimes starting to appear... 3pm start. Pretty pumped for my first MCU track 👊

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am shocked there are chatter around Freddy's having 15m previews !!! I know Sacramento numbers are really strong but nothing about the presales is screaming that big a number. Its release is relatively quite small so far and hybrid release could impact that as well. 

 

What chatter is that and where?!?  Haven't seen it in this thread, FWIW.

 

Comps will take a hit once I switch to T-x comps + capacity is an obvious issue.

 

(FWIW mentally pegging this around 9m to 10m+ in previews, but that "+" is doing a ton of work after the last couple of days!)

Edited October 4, 2023 by Porthos

[ChipDerby]

28 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

So are we going to be seeing a plethora of concert films in the near future now with Swift and now Beyonce I wonder?

 

Around 2008, for about 5 years or so we were seeing them. They did well, and I can't imagine they cost a lot to produce. So we've had about a 10 year break. We'll definitely start seeing more in the coming years.

[Porthos]

If said chatter is over at r/boxoffice or elsewhere... Well, I'd simply say...

 

...

 

Actually, no I won't say what I want to say.  

 

If I could find that Calm Down Cat meme that @M37 I believe likes to post [I think it was M37 at least], I'd post that instead, but here we are.

 

====

 

Look, FNAF is shattering expectations right now.  Or at least shattering the expectations of the folks who were more or less saying, "Prove it."

 

Well, it is so far.

 

But that emphasis is on so far.  It still has the very real issue of capacity and how many screens will be given to it.

 

That being said, I do think there's a danger of over-selling the Day and Date angle.  If this was a Big Boy Streamer like Netflix, HBO Max, or Disney/Hulu, that'd be one thing.  Or even a Medium Boy like Apple or Amazon.  But this is D+D on fucking Peacock.  

 

I...  I think we are overthinking it a bit when it comes to just how much Peacock is gonna harm FNAF.

 

Then there is the, IMO, obvious Halloween theming going on.  This is on the weekend right before Halloween, and the synergy looks to be through the roof.

 

Still, this does have obvious hurdles and it is absolutely right to keep that in mind.  But... gotta tell y'alls this.  I'll start doubting FNAF when it gives me a reason to.  And so far, it hasn't.  In the end, it might just come down to how many screens this ends up getting when all is said and done.  Personally, and this is just as a gut-read, I don't think that will be all that much of a problem as some might think as this isn't a long movie, is starting at 2pm, and isn't debuting against another heavy hitter.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

The pace after day one is solid. It can still slow down but I hope $10M happen.

with lower ATP, that will need close to 200K at MTC1. I think that needs significant expansion. While its possible but I would not bet on it based on just few days of presales. Hybrid release also could put a wrinkle on final week boost. 

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

What chatter is that and where?!?  Haven't seen it in this thread, FWIW.

 

Comps will take a hit once I switch to T-x comps + capacity is an obvious issue.

 

(FWIW mentally pegging this around 9m to 10m+ in previews, but that "+" is doing a ton of work after the last couple of days!)

You know where these chatter happen and your update was the catalyst. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

You know where these chatter happen and your update was the catalyst. 

 

lol

 

Now I'm the famous one apparently.

 

@M37

 

(consider everything I said in my last post to be my comments on that as read 😉)

[Relevation]

$15M is obviously excessive given the data we have, but I can’t get the Barbie comparison out of my head. That started off similarly strongly to FNAF and just kept increasing against comps in the face of initial capacity issues. There was a level off eventually but comps got so high that it didn’t matter. Obviously I’m not saying FNAF will open to $150M+ but honestly, I don’t think saying 12.5/100 is that unreasonable of an assertion.

[Porthos]

Just now, Relevation said:

$15M is obviously excessive given the data we have, but I can’t get the Barbie comparison out of my head. That started off similarly strongly to FNAF and just kept increasing against comps in the face of initial capacity issues. There was a level off eventually but comps got so high that it didn’t matter. Obviously I’m not saying FNAF will open to $150M+ but honestly, I don’t think saying 12.5/100 is that unreasonable of an assertion.

 

whispers very quietly: you ain't the only one to have made that mental comparison.