The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[WorkingonaName]

gonna ask u/RelevationAnimation for finical advice .  

[keysersoze123]

I think its similar to how Excel keep boasting how he was accurate for Pirates 3, Transformers and Iron Man etc while being wrong for 100s of movies :-) No one gets a pass at being super accurate(except may be @Porthos and his dark magic)

[Inceptionzq]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

What chatter is that and where?!?  Haven't seen it in this thread, FWIW.

 

Comps will take a hit once I switch to T-x comps + capacity is an obvious issue.

 

(FWIW mentally pegging this around 9m to 10m+ in previews, but that "+" is doing a ton of work after the last couple of days!)

Came across this post… it’s gone full circle lol

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Inceptionzq said:

Came across this post… it’s gone full circle lol

 

me right now as I see what I've unleashed on the world:

 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

with lower ATP, that will need close to 200K at MTC1. I think that needs significant expansion. While its possible but I would not bet on it based on just few days of presales. Hybrid release also could put a wrinkle on final week boost. 

Release is never an issue in US. You have ton of screens to fulfil any demand. The question is if pace can sustain for 10M demand.

 

Which for now looks doable.

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

FNAF tracking has showed me to never underestimate James Cameron u/RelevationAnimations

 

He was COMPLETELY correct about The Flash and Barbie. And it looks like he's also correct about FNAF. Seems to be good at predicting mega-hits and complete bombs, as well as distinguishing between astroturfing vs genuine excitement.

Bro I am not an oracle lmao ($300M TS opening weekend ring any bells?)

I just pay attention to the sales in this really great tracking forum and make judgments based on those sales, I can have right and wrong predictions

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

Came across this post… it’s gone full circle lol

If this pace semi-sustains and has a strong late push, I could see IT previews record going down

Edited October 5, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Flip]

2 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

I don't think I've ever seen a Stan account for a forum user but....

 

How's that $300M OW for Eras looking? 

wasn’t there a fan account for Sheldon?

[misterpepp]

Trolls Band Together goes on sale Oct 17

 

Nightmare Before Christmas 30th Anniversary goes on sale Oct 11

Edited October 5, 2023 by datpepper

[Ezen Baklattan]

I'm still surprised that nothing has tried to stake a claim on November 3rd yet, but guess Trolls and Marvels aren't moving lol

[Mojoguy]

3 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

I'm still surprised that nothing has tried to stake a claim on November 3rd yet, but guess Trolls and Marvels aren't moving lol

They really want that extra week of actors doing promotion I guess. Of course the strike will need to be over first.

[tdangie]

6 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

I'm still surprised that nothing has tried to stake a claim on November 3rd yet, but guess Trolls and Marvels aren't moving lol

With FNAF overperforming, I highly doubt any movie is gonna move up their release date at this point. Not sure how huge the second week drop is for FNAF due to the Peacock release, but I guess that's gonna depend on the movie's reviews and reception in the fandom.

[Mojoguy]

1 minute ago, tdangie said:

With FNAF overperforming, I highly doubt any movie is gonna move up their release date at this point. Not sure how huge the second week drop is for FNAF due to the Peacock release, but I guess that's gonna depend on the movie's reviews and reception in the fandom.

FNAF release date is so freaking stupid, should have opened one week earlier, so it could have had 2 strong weekends instead of 1 big weekend than a monster drop on the 2nd.

[Poseidon]

4 minutes ago, tdangie said:

With FNAF overperforming, I highly doubt any movie is gonna move up their release date at this point. Not sure how huge the second week drop is for FNAF due to the Peacock release, but I guess that's gonna depend on the movie's reviews and reception in the fandom.

Trolls 3 has pretty much no overlap with FNAF, even if that one does 50m 2nd WE, it doesn't matter. Wish opening the week after is a way bigger issue and I actually can't believe that they gave up on a schedule that worked out perfectly fine in the past with Drreamworks opening early in November/End of October and Disney opening over TG.

[filmlover]

21 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

I'm still surprised that nothing has tried to stake a claim on November 3rd yet, but guess Trolls and Marvels aren't moving lol

The Marvels clearly isn't blinking and nobody wants to get steamrolled in their second weekend, so they're mostly leaving the frame to smaller, non-threatening movies (Priscilla, The Marsh King's Daughter, What Happens Later).

[crazymoviekid]

9 hours ago, Hilts said:

Seeing Marvels showtimes starting to appear... 3pm start. Pretty pumped for my first MCU track 👊

So I guess Marvels is officially NOT having a last minute 1 week release push forward to Nov. 3?  Disney, you fools 

[keysersoze123]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews - 26263/166070 363958.99 1177 shows

Friday - 26499/298393 363891.5 1973 shows

 

Terrific day 3 for sure. Low show count is taking sales to Friday shows. Definite break out. 

 

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews - 29154/173786 405216.78 1230 shows

Friday - 30126/319091 418339.04 2093 shows

 

Still steaming along at a good pace. 

 

MTC2 Previews - 21099/258994 274156.18 1670 shows

 

Not bad at all. Early PS MTC2 tends to be quite a bit lower than MTC1 but here its over indexing relatively as confirmed from other data.  

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

Release is never an issue in US. You have ton of screens to fulfil any demand. The question is if pace can sustain for 10M demand.

 

Which for now looks doable.

You are right. We will have to wait until closer to release as movies rarely have a huge jump until then.  One comp could be Oppenheimer which had limited shows outside Imax/70 mm for a while and in fact only finished with 2262 shows even at release despite grossing 10.5m previews. But that benefited a lot from crazy demand for Imax/70mm and any other PLF it got. We have to see how things go with Freddy without PLF push.  

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

You are right. We will have to wait until closer to release as movies rarely have a huge jump until then.  One comp could be Oppenheimer which had limited shows outside Imax/70 mm for a while and in fact only finished with 2262 shows even at release despite grossing 10.5m previews. But that benefited a lot from crazy demand for Imax/70mm and any other PLF it got. We have to see how things go with Freddy without PLF push.  

Was thinking about something like John Wick perhaps. What's better is that sales seem well spread. Much better than Wick in MiniTC2.

 

You did raise a valid point of less shows for THU, which is probably why FRI is so BIG in MTC 1. May be if there were more shows, THU there be even better. 

Edited October 5, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[charlie Jatinder]

Been a while since I posted.

Five Nights at Freddy MiniTC2 T-21

 

Previews - 2295/33930 (131 showings)
Friday - 764/33759 (131 showings)

 

This is as of last night. Will post the tonight data in few hours. Absolutely incredible THU. FRI is less unlike MTC1 but is still a lot better than Halloween and Scream.

 

Comps

 

Previews

6.09x of Halloween 3 first 3 days of sales
~3.50x of Scream VI first 3 days of sales

3.12x of John Wick 4 first 3 days of sales

 

Friday

1.72x of Halloween 3 first 3 days of sales

0.97x of John Wick 4 first 3 days of sales