The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

Exorcist: The Beginning adjusts to just over $70M total with nearly 20 years of inflation. That's probably where this is headed in total depending on where it lands this weekend, unless it pulls a Halloween Kills/Ends and dies instantly starting Monday (which is also not impossible).

[keysersoze123]

On 10/4/2023 at 8:19 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Renaissance MTC1 

Previews - 72119/288062 1829895.00 1407 shows

Friday - 51997/633288 1329930.00 2995 shows

 

Already Friday pace is much better. Bodes well for good multi over the weekend. That said this is gonna over index here more than even Eras. 

Renaissance MTC1 

Previews - 75756/303883 1921380.00 1494 shows

Friday - 55204/670459 1411299.00 3194 shows

 

Percentage wise the comps will go up against Eras with longer PS cycle and available capacity. Its also adding more shows considering smaller start.  

[Tinalera]

Taylor Swift

Fri Oct 13

Vancouver Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Fri	4	11	1704	174	1878	0.9073

 

 

2 shows added. Almost all shows at 10 or less from sellout

[Shawn Robbins]

For our veteran counters here that have their data from two years ago, Dune might be an outside-the-box comp for FNAF. Hybrid release in October + PG-13 rating + pre-existing fan base but not a sequel + on sale at T-18 (vs. around T-26 for FNAF with some staggering).

 

How the two pace against each other is the variable, of course, and COVID era walk-ups aren't the same as today. Dune similarly had a strong share of Friday shows relative to Thursday, largely because of IMAX and PLF demand (which, of course, also means some ATP adjustment as Freddy will be lower on that end).

 

Might be valuable temporarily, long-term, or not at all. Just ran across it in my samples this week and saw some intriguing similarities in early sales.

[el sid]

The Exorcist: Believer, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 344 (13 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 153 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 23 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 17 (9 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 25 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 182 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 639 (17 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.383.

Up mediocre 24% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): The Nun II (9.9M true Friday) had 1.106 sold tickets = 12.4M (yesterday it were 13.3M).
Saw X (8M) had 622 sold tickets = 13.3M (yesterday 13.7M). So The Exorcist didn't lose much in the comp but Saw X had a very good jump till Friday last week.
Halloween Ends (15M) had 1.561 sold tickets = 13.3M.
M3gan (8.95M) had 752 sold tickets = 16.5M.
Smile (6.2M) had 549 sold tickets = 15.6M.
Prey for the Devil (2.14M) had 262 sold tickets
and The Pope's Excorcist (2.65M) had 199 sold tickets.
 

As expected it did lose in the comps but not that much. The average number from the bigger films is still 14.2M true Friday.
I saw that the reviews aren't good (maybe that's not too surprising because I doubt that critics really like this type of film; Prey for the Devil had 17%, The Pope's Exorcist 48%). Of course the reviews won't help but I think they also won't hurt that much.
Let's say it loses again in the comps till tomorrow what I expect. But even then it should stay above 10M true Friday (at least judging from my theaters).

So I say 30M OW.

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Taylor Swift

Fri Oct 13

Vancouver Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Fri	4	11	1704	174	1878	0.9073

 

 

2 shows added. Almost all shows at 10 or less from sellout

 

Are the new shows close to sell out? What type of shows were added. Was it adding a new screen, or was it adding back matinees?

 

My area didn't add any new shows while I was tracking, other than one theatre adding an 11:00 pm show that's not selling much yet.

[Porthos]

31 minutes ago, Shawn said:

For our veteran counters here that have their data from two years ago, Dune might be an outside-the-box comp for FNAF. Hybrid release in October + PG-13 rating + pre-existing fan base but not a sequel + on sale at T-18 (vs. around T-26 for FNAF with some staggering).

 

How the two pace against each other is the variable, of course, and COVID era walk-ups aren't the same as today. Dune similarly had a strong share of Friday shows relative to Thursday, largely because of IMAX and PLF demand (which, of course, also means some ATP adjustment as Freddy will be lower on that end).

 

Might be valuable temporarily, long-term, or not at all. Just ran across it in my samples this week and saw some intriguing similarities in early sales.

 

Sales pattern might be worth a look, but I can tell you locally at least the the PLF skew makes it a really tough adjustment even before ATP differenced from 2021 are brought into play.

 

Current FNAF PLF share: 12.75% of all tickets sold

Dune Final PLF share:      54.20% of all tickets sold 

 

Don't have easy access to T-x numbers for Dune PLF share, as it was on an older PC at the time, but it was much much higher in early days (in the 70s IIRC).  The FNAF PLF will probably go up a bit as PLF screens were added late, but I kinda doubt it'll get very high, especially with KotFM still having the local IMAX screens.

 

The other issue is that Dune started at T-17 (I count T-x slightly differently than you, it appears as I go to T-0), meaning FNAF is gonna have eight more days of pre-sale, which will make comping even more difficult.

 

I do see the logic, but I think the demos (SciFi Nerds + Film Twiiter vs Gamers and Teens) + stark PLF difference + pre-sale window disparity makes it a tough lift even before ATP rears its head.

[Porthos]

@Shawn

 

Though as I think on it/chew it over, there has been a significant ATP rise since then.  Maybe enough to cover a large portion of the PLF difference?  Though still the demo/pre-sale window problems.

 

Hmmm...

 

 

FNAF (Day 4) = 1.897x Dune (Day 4) [8.5m]

FNAF = 39.83% of Dune Sales FINAL at T-0

 

Might work, yeah.  But thinking the ATP rise isn't quite covering the PLF diff.  Plus still got a bits to go before the T-x comps align.

 

Pretty sure I'm the only current tracker that has Dune info, unless @Inceptionzq was covering Dune.  I'll keep it in my back pocket and think about it when it gets to T-17/T-15 or so.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Porthos

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[misterpepp]

ERC is a little mistaken there. It's $100m in global pre-sales, not solely domestic like he seems to be implying.

 

It's also not for entirely opening weekend, it's for all pre-sales across the whole run.

Edited October 5, 2023 by datpepper

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-13	20	163	0	65	11,720	28,984	40.44%
T-12	20	163	0	73	11,793	28,984	40.69%
T-11	20	164	0	118	11,911	29,080	40.96%
T-10	20	166	0	87	11,998	29,294	40.96%
T-9	24	185	0	355**	12,353	31,189	39.61%
MTC1	7	67	0		6,975	11,518	60.56%
MTC2	4	41	0		1,943	6,420	30.26%
MTC3	3	34	0		2,201	6,396	34.41%
Other	10	43	0		1,234	6,855	18.00%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.249x	=	$26.36m	$39.54m
Oppenheimer				2.537x	=	$26.64m	$39.96m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				4.096x	=	$29.49m	$44.23m
T-9 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie (EA)				19.241x	=	$21.17m	$31.75m

 

*+50%

 

**one of the smaller chains here (B&B) only just released their showings today for me to track, which is why the TC and showings are showing a material uptick. Now I think they were available to purchase (and therefore sold) a few weeks ago when pre-sales started probably direct from their website and not sold today, therefore inaccurately inflating the amount today, but can't confirm. Either way, not a huge deal in the grand scheme. For those interested, excluding that chain the amount sold today was 106, so still a decent day and remains a step above the growth seen before the recent bump.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-12	20	163	73	11,793	28,984	40.69%	0.62%
T-11	20	164	118	11,911	29,080	40.96%	1.00%
T-10	20	166	87	11,998	29,294	40.96%	0.73%
T-9	24	185	355	12,353	31,189	39.61%	2.96%
T-8	24	185	54	12,407	31,189	39.78%	0.44%
MTC1	7	67	+22	6,997	11,518	60.75%
MTC2	4	41	0	1,943	6,420	30.26%
MTC3	3	34	+20	2,221	6,396	34.72%
Other	10	43	+12	1,246	6,855	18.18%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.255x	=	$26.48m	$39.72m
Oppenheimer				2.548x	=	$26.76m	$40.13m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				4.114x	=	$29.62m	$44.43m
T-8 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie (EA)				18.272x	=	$20.10m	$30.15m

 

*+50%

 

Slightly slower day today. Added new sales split by chain plus daily growth.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Hilts

[Tinalera]

52 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Are the new shows close to sell out? What type of shows were added. Was it adding a new screen, or was it adding back matinees?

 

My area didn't add any new shows while I was tracking, other than one theatre adding an 11:00 pm show that's not selling much yet.

No new afternoon shows that I could see, there was what looks like two shows (2 theatres 1 show each)  added for an evening show. Im surprised that the Matinees were taken out, they sold like hotcakes-I know I heard it had something to do with the Britney agents not wanting them-maybe trying to do the "limited scarcity" type thing-but money is money right? 

Edited October 5, 2023 by Tinalera

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-19	21	82	0	113	955	15,266	6.26%
T-18	21	82	0	93	1,048	15,266	6.86%
T-17	21	82	0	70	1,118	15,266	7.32%
T-16	21	82	0	162	1,280	15,266	8.38%
T-15	21	82	0	70	1,350	15,266	8.84%
MTC1	8	32	0		574	5,897	9.73%
MTC2	4	18	0		275	3,132	8.78%
MTC3	3	18	0		368	3,798	9.69%
Other	6	14	0		133	2,439	5.45%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.577x	=	$16.56m
Barbie					0.871x	=	$19.34m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					2.364x	=	$20.81m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.554x	=	$11.19m
Sound of Freedom					1.408x	=	$7.32m
Asteroid City					19.014x	=	$20.92m

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-18	21	82	93	1,048	15,266	6.86%	9.74%
T-17	21	82	70	1,118	15,266	7.32%	6.68%
T-16	21	82	162	1,280	15,266	8.38%	14.49%
T-15	21	82	70	1,350	15,266	8.84%	5.47%
T-14	21	82	81	1,431	15,266	9.37%	6.00%
MTC1	8	32	+26	600	5,897	10.17%
MTC2	4	18	+18	293	3,132	9.36%
MTC3	3	18	+19	387	3,798	10.19%
Other	6	14	+18	151	2,439	6.19%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.573x	=	$16.51m
Barbie					0.856x	=	$19.01m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					2.268x	=	$19.96m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.583x	=	$11.40m
Sound of Freedom					1.389x	=	$7.22m
Asteroid City					19.338x	=	$21.27m

 

Still selling decently everywhere. Finally largely settled against comps. Actual accurate number is probably ~25% of these.

[Shawn Robbins]

Really hoping FNAF gets the PLF treatment I personally think it's justified to have. My casual gaming community interactions in recent years have played into my bullish expectations for the movie since it was announced. That and my 12-year-old nephew's keen interest in it. 😄

 

Show counts + PLF and the hybrid release are really the main detractors for me at the moment. *Maybe* frontloading concerns, but it feels like it has a real shot to become Blumhouse's #2 opening behind Halloween (2018). Exhibitors just might need to match the demand and help those ATPs climb.

[Hilts]

On 10/4/2023 at 10:02 PM, Hilts said:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-25	15	61	0	195	195	10,575	1.84%
T-24	16	64	0	156	351	10,818	3.24%
T-23	16	64	0	123	474	10,818	4.38%
T-22	16	67	0	103	577	11,157	5.17%

 

MTC1	7	21	0		268	2,213	12.11%
MTC2	4	21	0		118	3,504	3.37%
MTC3	3	20	0		147	4,277	3.44%
Other	2	5	0		44	1,163	3.78%

 

Comps
Asteroid City					14.425x	=	$15.87m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.943x	=	$17.10m
Barbie					0.571x	=	$12.68m
Haunted Mansion					7.213x	=	$22.36m
Oppenheimer					0.878x	=	$9.22m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.880x	=	$6.33m
The Exorcist: Believer					12.822x
Killers of the Flower Moon					0.897x

 

Another strong day increasing on most comps inc Barbie+EA.

 

Can confirm what @keysersoze123 is seeing though, MTC1 with really low show count but selling well here. Feel like maybe they missed a trick here by not expanding sooner.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-25	15	61	195	195	10,575	1.84%	-
T-24	16	64	156	351	10,818	3.24%	80.00%
T-23	16	64	123	474	10,818	4.38%	35.04%
T-22	16	67	103	577	11,157	5.17%	21.73%
T-21	16	67	73	650	11,157	5.83%	12.65%
MTC1	7	21	+25	293	2,213	13.24%
MTC2	4	21	+15	133	3,504	3.80%
MTC3	3	20	+27	174	4,277	4.07%
Other	2	5	+6	50	1,163	4.30%
Comps
Asteroid City					14.130x	=	$15.54m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.952x	=	$17.18m
Barbie					0.600x	=	$13.31m
Haunted Mansion					7.831x	=	$24.28m
Oppenheimer					0.977x	=	$10.26m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.953x	=	$6.86m
The Exorcist: Believer					14.444x
Killers of the Flower Moon					0.895x

 

Slowing down at pretty even pace but most comps still rising. No new shows added today.

[Bob Train]

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
10/13/2023	Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour	$105,000,000 – $140,000,000		$156,000,000 – $226,000,000		AMC Theatres / Variance Films
10/20/2023	Killers of the Flower Moon	$29,000,000 – $38,000,000	+17%	$97,000,000 – $141,000,000	+17%	Paramount Pictures / Apple Studios
10/20/2023	Soul Mates					Faith Media Distribution
10/27/2023	After Death					Angel Studios
10/27/2023	Five Nights at Freddy’s	$35,000,000 – $55,000,000	+25%	$65,000,000 – $118,000,000	+25%	Universal Pictures / Blumhouse
10/27/2023	Freelance					Relativity Media
10/27/2023	Inspector Sun					Viva Pictures
10/27/2023	Sight					Briarcliff Entertainment
11/3/2023	The Marsh King’s Daughter					STX / Lionsgate / Roadside Attractions
11/3/2023	Priscilla	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000		$10,000,000 – $27,000,000		A24
11/3/2023	What Happens Later					Bleecker Street

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-a24s-priscilla-plus-updates-on-taylor-swift-killers-of-the-flower-moon-and-five-nights-at-freddys/

Edited October 5, 2023 by Bob Train

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
154	1135	27238	4.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

126

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(2.816x) of Boogeyman~$3.09M THUR Previews

(1.381x) of Nun II~$4.28M THUR Previews

(1.793x) of Saw X~$3.59M THUR Previews

(2.379x) of Venice~$2.86M THUR Previews

COMPS AVG: $3.46M

 

Comps are all over the place so I'm not so sure but it looks like $3M-$3.5M previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-0 *Final Update 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
154	1651	27238	6.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

516

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(3.581x) of Boogeyman~$3.94M THUR Previews

(1.384x) of Nun II~$4.29M THUR Previews

(1.604x) of Saw X~$3.21M THUR Previews

(2.038x) of Venice~$2.45M THUR Previews

COMPS AVG: $3.47M

 

I'll officially go with $3.4M previews. This could be overindexing a lot here 

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Pretty sure I'm the only current tracker that has Dune info, unless @Inceptionzq was covering Dune.  I'll keep it in my back pocket and think about it when it gets to T-17/T-15 or so.

I do have Dune numbers, full data in Denver and partial in Drafthouse. It overperformed in both though, so the comps will be useless.

[ChipDerby]

1 hour ago, datpepper said:

ERC is a little mistaken there. It's $100m in global pre-sales, not domestic like he seems to be implying.

 

It's also not for entirely opening weekend, it's for all pre-sales across the whole run.

 

Not gonna get twitter likes when you do that though

[Hilts]

On 10/4/2023 at 9:33 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-5	22	80	0	22	161	16,341	0.99%
T-4	22	80	0	30	191	16,341	1.17%
T-3	22	80	0	39	230	16,341	1.41%
T-2	25	101	0	48	278	18,794	1.48%
T-1	25	107	0	66	344	19,512	1.76%
MTC1	8	31	0		158	6,037	2.62%
MTC2	4	29	0		44	5,265	0.84%
MTC3	3	17	0		105	3,510	2.99%
Other	10	30	0		37	4,700	0.79%

 

Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.447x	=	$1.38m
Strays					1.638x	=	$1.80m
A Haunting In Venice					1.404x	=	$1.68m
Talk To Me					2.709x	=	$3.37m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					3.373x	=	$2.53m
Insidious: The Red Door					0.891x	=	$4.46m
The Nun II					1.082x	=	$3.35m
The Creator					1.036x	=	$1.40m
Saw X					0.880x	=	$1.76m

 

Comp average: $2.42m. Few things to point out here.

 

1) I have upgraded my sheets to include a breakdown between major chains plus the rest. Should be able to do this for each track fairly easily going forward. Still need a bit of time to crack the new daily amounts per chain but will take a bit longer with how I have everything set up currently. Honestly quite eye opening already which you will see when I post each update today.

2) EA is playing havoc with a few of these comps as it normally does at T-1.

3) Really not that great growth today. Obviously reviews do not impact horror as much but with how it's shaping it will surely not help tomorrow.

4) Saw had a really good T-1 here before collapsing plus I took those numbers later than normal so I would not look too much at that comp today.

 

For now I am under $3m, more like $2.5m. Good jump tomorrow can change that but I am not convinced following the last few days.

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-4	22	80	30	191	16,341	1.17%	18.63%
T-3	22	80	39	230	16,341	1.41%	20.42%
T-2	25	101	48	278	18,794	1.48%	20.87%
T-1	25	107	66	344	19,512	1.76%	23.74%
T-0	25	106	333	677	19,340	3.50%	96.80%
MTC1	8	31	+95	253	6,037	4.19%
MTC2	4	29	+85	129	5,265	2.45%
MTC3	3	16	+100	205	3,338	6.14%
Other	10	30	+53	90	4,700	1.91%

 

Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.702x	=	$2.18m
A Haunting In Venice					1.680x	=	$2.02m
Talk To Me					2.184x	=	$2.72m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					2.517x	=	$1.89m
Insidious: The Red Door					0.555x	=	$2.78m
The Nun II					0.929x	=	$2.88m
The Creator					1.138x	=	$1.82m
Saw X					1.190x	=	$2.38m

 

If it does squeak to $3m I won't be shocked but my data does not quite support that.

 

Pure horror comp average is $2.5m, it did have a decent final day but did not move the needle much so I will bump slightly my prediction to $2.7m.

 

I am liking Friday numbers from @el sid though so can scrape over $30m OW. Reckon it may be a nailbiter/fudge.