The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Outlander]

I know the general consensus on here is that Eras will have next to none walk ups but why do I feel like it will be more than decent 🫣

 

[vafrow]

57 minutes ago, Derpity said:

My local theater must be expecting A LOT of walk-ups, they have 16 Taylor Swift showings tonight, and there are currently 70 tickets sold. Multiple have 0 tickets sold.

 

What region/ chain? And what type of time slots are we talking about. Even if you're getting two showtimes per screen, how does a chain bump off 8 films with short notice.

 

That's a surprising approach given the reported frustration from theatre chains on the timing of the announcement, and how slow sales have been for the last month.

[Porthos]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

PREVIEW SEATS SOLD SO FAR

 

*****NO COMPS AS OF YET — COMPS (OF A SORT) WILL SHOW UP TOMORROW*****

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area PREVIEW NIGHT (THR) Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	18715	19196	481	2.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

481

 

======================

 

That's actually kinda impressive given the insanely haphazard nature of the rollout, maybe?   Especially given that a lot of theaters didn't have showtimes up 'till 8pm or so?

 

Maybe?

 

Hell if I know.

 

No other thoughts, including about Friday as things are hella unsettled.  Want to wait for the dust to settle a bit before reassessing Friday.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area PREMIERE NIGHT

(Thr Prev) Seat Report:  PREMIERE (THR PREV) MID-DAY REPORT [12:00pm-12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	155	18378	19180	802	4.18%

 

 

Total Net Showings Removed Since Last Night	1
Total Net Seats Removed Since Last Night	16
Total Net Seats Sold Since Last Night	321

NOTE:  One of the local theaters, understandably perhaps, set a couple of 2pm showtimes for today last night, which were subsequently yanked this morning.

 

TET Thru (Mid-Day) = 0.08621x TET Fri (T-2) [????m] (802/9303)

---

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:  [USE MOSTLY FOR PACE PURPOSES ONLY!!!! - ***MOSTLY*** IGNORE THE COMPS]

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	3.04		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	2.85%		1.52m	2.20m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	4.12		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	3.80%		1.48m	2.15m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	5.38		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	4.73%		1.56m	2.26m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	5.44		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	4.77%		1.52m	2.21m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	8.54		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	7.66%		1.49m	2.17m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	8.72		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	7.46%		1.53m	2.21m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

YET MORE T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps: [AGAIN USE MOSTLY FOR PACE PURPOSES!!!]

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
Bats [11:30-12:35]	7.65		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	6.82%		1.65m	2.40m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	8.45		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	7.31%		1.52m	2.21m
BA [11:35-12:25]	22.15		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	17.85%		1.68m	2.44m
Ava 2[11:30-12:15]	10.14		666	7907		0/310	27128/35035	22.57%		8986	8.92%		1.72m	2.50m
Shaz2[11:45-12:10]	64.37		177	1246		0/165	21921/23167	5.38%		1663	48.23%		2.19m	3.17m
TLM [11:40-12:15]	14.31		629	5603		0/225	23553/29156	19.22%		6561	12.22%		1.47m	2.14m
AtSV[11:40-12:15]	9.94		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	8.23%		1.72m	2.50m
RotB[11:40-12:10]	20.46		487	3919		0/202	21893/25812	15.18%		4973	16.13%		1.80m	2.61m
Barb [11:30-12:40]	7.58		1130	10583		3/271	19233/29816	35.49%		12077	6.64%		1.69m	2.45m
Oppy[12:15-12:25]	19.69		367	4074		2/80	6785/10859	37.52%		4621	17.36%		2.07m	3.00m
Barbn[11:30-12:10]	5.47		1497	14657		5/351	26018/40675	36.03%		16698	4.80%		1.79m	2.60m

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     124/5770  [2.15% sold]

 

=======

 

Ain't gonna pull up the "I've made a huge mistake" Arrested Development meme for those theater owners expecting a huge amount of walkups tonight as for all I know it'll still do better than normal Thursday night numbers.  But if they were expected a rush to the doors, they might want a re-think.

 

I pulled in a ton of lower grossing movies mostly for pace.  Is obviously outpacing the Shazam 2's of the world and maybe is a tier or so below the Black Adam's and the Rise of the Beasts type movies.

 

Might do a check of my Master List to see similar films that did 300 to 375 at the mid day (one benefit of tracking a bazillion movies is that I have a bazillion comps I can pull from) to get a sense of what this might get tonight.  If so, won't be for a bit.

 

As for what showtimes are selling?  PLFs, obvs.  And the 6pm'ers.  Anything else?  Not much.

 

Again, wouldn't read too much into the comps as every last one of those films had pre-sale windows and this one didn't.  But as a guide for expecting sales for the rest of the day?  A compare/contrast to final numbers at end of tracking might work.

 

But, I had like NO TIME to do any of that.  In fact, consider y'alls lucky you even got the extra info on smaller releases. 😛

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Also, apologize for the ugly charts but those extra columns are fucking back-breakers right now.  I'll try to make it look a little better over the next few minutes.

 

(no promises tho)

 

Alright, shrank them more than I personally like, but at least they don't look hideous anymore. 

 

At least on some browsers.  Obvs won't be able to make them look great on all. 

 

Better on *MY* screen at least.  And, really, that's what counts in the end. 😛

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Porthos

[Derpity]

25 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

What region/ chain? And what type of time slots are we talking about. Even if you're getting two showtimes per screen, how does a chain bump off 8 films with short notice.

 

That's a surprising approach given the reported frustration from theatre chains on the timing of the announcement, and how slow sales have been for the last month.

 

Regal in Georgia that unloaded their clip at this movie -- 6pm, 615pm, 630pm, 645pm, 700pm, 730pm, 745pm, 8pm, 830pm, 9pm, 940pm, 955pm, 1010pm, 1025pm, and 1040pm.

 

4 of the showtimes have 0 tickets sold. But it is up to 93 tickets in total now.

[Relevation]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios’ THE MARVELS

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 10/12/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
10/20/2023	Killers of the Flower Moon	$33,000,000 – $42,000,000	+11%	$110,000,000 – $156,000,000	+8%	Paramount Pictures / Apple Studios
10/20/2023	Soul Mates					Faith Media Distribution
10/27/2023	After Death					Angel Studios
10/27/2023	Five Nights at Freddy’s	$41,000,000 – $60,000,000	+13%	$76,000,000 – $129,000,000	+13%	Universal Pictures / Blumhouse
10/27/2023	Freelance					Relativity Media
10/27/2023	Inspector Sun					Viva Pictures
10/27/2023	Sight					Briarcliff Entertainment
11/3/2023	The Marsh King’s Daughter					STX / Lionsgate / Roadside Attractions
11/3/2023	Priscilla	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000		$10,000,000 – $27,000,000		A24
11/3/2023	What Happens Later					Bleecker Street
11/10/2023	The Holdovers (Wide Expansion; LA+NY Oct. 27, Limited Nov. 3)					Focus Features
11/10/2023	The Marvels	$50,000,000 – $75,000,000		$121,000,000 – $189,000,000		Disney / Marvel Studios
11/10/2023	Journey to Bethlehem	TBD		TBD		Sony / AFFIRM Films

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Relevation

[Derpity]

51 minutes ago, Outlander said:

I know the general consensus on here is that Eras will have next to none walk ups but why do I feel like it will be more than decent 🫣

 

We're in uncharted waters here, so it might be a walk-up monster. I'm personally skeptical of that, because it seems like an event that you plan to see and arrange a schedule around, not something you see on a whim. Especially true given the higher-cost and close to zero marketing.

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

25 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

What region/ chain? And what type of time slots are we talking about. Even if you're getting two showtimes per screen, how does a chain bump off 8 films with short notice.

 

That's a surprising approach given the reported frustration from theatre chains on the timing of the announcement, and how slow sales have been for the last month.

Looking at the Tampa Bay Area (FL), most theaters are running 3-4 TET showings tonight. However, the big AMC Veterans 24 (in Tampa) already has 17 showings scheduled for tonight: 2 in IMAX; 2 in Dolby; and 13 standard. Just glancing at showing starting the first hour of EA screenings: the 6:30 pm IMAX showing has 77 seats sold (adult ticket price: $26.76). The 6:15 pm Dolby showing has 40 sold (adult ticket price: $26.76 as well). Standard 6:15 pm showing has 4 sold, the 6:45 pm has 5 sold  (both at a $21.38 ticket price). 

 

Across the bay in St. Petersburg, the one IMAX theater (AMC Sundial 12) has a 6 pm TET showing that has sold 81 tickets (adult ticket price of $26.63). It's not like a fair number of seats aren't filling up, particularly in the premium formats.

[nevermore]

The Marvels 💀

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	26689	27313	624	2.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

71

 

Day 2 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	58.15		199	1073		0/96	14470/15543	6.90%		6409	9.74%		6.25m
GOTG3	28.93		265	2157		0/205	27411/29568	7.30%		10750	5.80%		5.06m
TLM	114.71		90	544		0/154	21462/22006	2.47%		6561	9.51%		11.81m
AtSV	49.06		253	1272		0/123	18626/19898	6.39%		9744	6.40%		8.52m
Flash	82.32		118	758		0/174	23970/24728	3.07%		5327	11.71%		7.99m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     57/8661  [0.66% sold]
Matinee:    20/2547  [0.79% | 3.21% of all tickets sold]
3D:            42/4901  [0.86% | 6.73% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yeaaah, thazza not good.  Nothing else to add.

 

(also brain too fried for real commentary)

I just wondered how the 1st movie did with presales and we all know presales have grown a lot in past few years. This has sold like less than 1/3rd based on your initial update.  So I am thinking 8m previews and 55-60m OW is the initial target. But it could go up if the pace picks up. Let us see post Eras OW if the pace is more than norm for what we see for movies in their 2nd week of presales. 

 

 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

3 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 15	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour	AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films	$105,000,000 – $145,000,000	$105,000,000 – $145,000,000	~3,850	NEW
The Exorcist: Believer	Universal Pictures & Blumhouse	$9,000,000	$42,400,000	~3,663	-66%
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	Paramount Pictures	$7,800,000	$50,900,000	~3,700	-31%
Saw X	Lionsgate	$4,300,000	$39,500,000	~3,200	-45%
The Creator	20th Century Studios	$4,000,000	$32,200,000	~3,100	-36%
The Blind	Fathom Events	$2,100,000	$14,200,000	~1,200	-34%
A Haunting in Venice	20th Century Studios	$1,900,000	$38,900,000	~2,200	-29%
Dumb Money	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$1,400,000	$13,200,000	~2,300	-34%
The Nun II	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,400,000	$83,500,000	~2,100	-46%
The Equalizer 3	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$1,300,000	$90,900,000	~1,500	-28%

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-taylor-swift-the-eras-tour/

 

I tossed in the final pinpoint ($131m) a little bit ago.

 

I realize this is markedly higher than a few people in this thread think is possible now, but, that was technically the final forecast early yesterday and I won't have time to revise it today (not sure that I would if I did... hard to say).

 

Even if it's on the high end, it's one I don't mind (too much) being off on given how few-to-zero true comparisons there are for this. It's going to have a HUGE result no matter what as a tentpole created out of thin air less than two months ago and I don't think any of us should lose sight of that when the actual numbers start rolling in tomorrow.

 

I don't usually openly invite too many @s or PMs on these topics, but happy to address any questions via either method as to why the final is deviating from the fears of missing $100m. A lot of things in play, not the least of which is the average ticket price possibly skewing higher than expected.

[M37]

25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Might do a check of my Master List to see similar films that did 300 to 375 at the mid day (one benefit of tracking a bazillion movies is that I have a bazillion comps I can pull from) to get a sense of what this might get tonight.  If so, won't be for a bit.

Because you only bring out the Dark Magic for the bigger releases, not many data points in the lower level range, which is how this last minute show addition should behave in terms of pace.  The highest final day growth I have down for you is the Q&D for Elemental, which nearly doubled from T-1 (no mid-day update though), and I don't see any reason why ERAS Thursday won't beat that, performing like a family or horror film as majority walk-ups

 

Fwiw, ~1500-1600 was my ballpark target range for your sample's final count

 

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

I tossed in the final pinpoint ($131m) a little bit ago.

 

I realize this is markedly higher than a few people in this thread think is possible now, but, that was technically the final forecast early yesterday and I won't have time to revise it today (not sure that I would if I did... hard to say).

 

Even if it's on the high end, it's one I don't mind (too much) being off on given how few-to-zero true comparisons there are for this. It's going to have a HUGE result no matter what as a tentpole created out of thin air less than two months ago and I don't think any of us should lose sight of that when the actual numbers start rolling in tomorrow.

 

I don't usually openly invite too many @s or PMs on these topics, but happy to address any questions via either method as to why the final is deviating from the fears of missing $100m. A lot of things in play, not the least of which is the average ticket price possibly skewing higher than expected.

@Shawn why so low on Freddy's. All signs from numbers on this thread point to humongous OW. Unless you see horrendous walkups due to day and date on Peacock. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area PREMIERE NIGHT

(Thr Prev) Seat Report:  PREMIERE (THR PREV) MID-DAY REPORT [12:00pm-12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	155	18378	19180	802	4.18%

 

 

Total Net Showings Removed Since Last Night	1
Total Net Seats Removed Since Last Night	16
Total Net Seats Sold Since Last Night	321

NOTE:  One of the local theaters, understandably perhaps, set a couple of 2pm showtimes for today last night, which were subsequently yanked this morning.

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Might do a check of my Master List to see similar films that did 300 to 375 at the mid day (one benefit of tracking a bazillion movies is that I have a bazillion comps I can pull from) to get a sense of what this might get tonight.  If so, won't be for a bit.

 

 

Alright did a bit of a check.

 

For movies in the last couple of years that I have easy-to-access data [i.e. not the Q&Ds which I usually get rid of]:

 

First number is Mid-Day Check, second number is ticket sold after Mid-Day Check through stop of tracking:

 

NTTD:        303 | 648 

Dune:         284 | 524

GBA:           413 | 541

Morbs:        414 | 581

Sonic 2:      364 | 704

Scream 6:  324 | 531

Wick 4:       430 | 1103

Oppy:         367 | 547

 

Wick 4 and Sonic 2 are the obvious outliers.  But maybe set a target of somewhere between 550 to 650 tickets sold, maybe?

 

One wrinkle is due to the 6pm preview start time, I'll be doing my pull about 60 to 90 minutes later than many of the above films, which will mean more tickets sold.  On the other hand, also won't have all of the completed matinee showings boosting the totals.  Still, as a *ROUGH GUIDE*, might work.

 

Or not.  But it's not like I have anything better to give you all. 👍

Edited October 12, 2023 by Porthos

[BadOlCatSylvester]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I just wondered how the 1st movie did with presales and we all know presales have grown a lot in past few years. This has sold like less than 1/3rd based on your initial update.  So I am thinking 8m previews and 55-60m OW is the initial target. But it could go up if the pace picks up. Let us see post Eras OW if the pace is more than norm for what we see for movies in their 2nd week of presales. 

 

 

 

Lowest opening weekend in the franchise? That'd be nuts! At that point I'd be more excited about Marvel's reaction to such an outcome than the movie itself.

[vafrow]

19 minutes ago, Derpity said:

 

Regal in Georgia that unloaded their clip at this movie -- 6pm, 615pm, 630pm, 645pm, 700pm, 730pm, 745pm, 8pm, 830pm, 9pm, 940pm, 955pm, 1010pm, 1025pm, and 1040pm.

 

4 of the showtimes have 0 tickets sold. But it is up to 93 tickets in total now.

 

Thanks.

 

So, East coast leaves this with not much time before things start, and sales are definitely lagging.

 

My region (greater Toronto area) has added screenings from my check this morning, but almost everything is still just one showtime per theatre. It's interesting to see theatres take wildly different approaches.

 

I'm just eyeballing things, but we're looking at sales around 20-25 per showtime on average or so. And this is with some bigger auditoriums added, so there's going to be a lot of empty seats tonight.

 

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I just wondered how the 1st movie did with presales and we all know presales have grown a lot in past few years. This has sold like less than 1/3rd based on your initial update. 

 

 

Worse than that as I have more seat level data now than I did then.  I'll have to tidy up my sheet to see just how much worse.

 

Should remind though that CM over-performed here for whatever reason. There was lots of debate back then, but I never found the answers satisfactory.

 

(also, haven't run numbers recently for lack of caring, but don't forget that Sacramento seemed to be taking a larger share of the DOM back in 2021 than it was in 2019.  Don't know if we've gotten back to 2019 levels or not but I suspect 'rona related closures/movie viewing habits permanently shifted ratios a bit)

Edited October 12, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

Because you only bring out the Dark Magic for the bigger releases, not many data points in the lower level range, which is how this last minute show addition should behave in terms of pace.  The highest final day growth I have down for you is the Q&D for Elemental, which nearly doubled from T-1 (no mid-day update though), and I don't see any reason why ERAS Thursday won't beat that, performing like a family or horror film as majority walk-ups

 

Fwiw, ~1500-1600 was my ballpark target range for your sample's final count

 

 

Saw this before I made my next-to-last post and this makes sense.  But those ticket sales I just posted a few minutes ago might still be of use, especially maybe the higher end ones. 

[M37]

12 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

I tossed in the final pinpoint ($131m) a little bit ago.

 

I realize this is markedly higher than a few people in this thread think is possible now, but, that was technically the final forecast early yesterday and I won't have time to revise it today (not sure that I would if I did... hard to say).

 

Even if it's on the high end, it's one I don't mind (too much) being off on given how few-to-zero true comparisons there are for this. It's going to have a HUGE result no matter what as a tentpole created out of thin air less than two months ago and I don't think any of us should lose sight of that when the actual numbers start rolling in tomorrow.

 

I don't usually openly invite too many @s or PMs on these topics, but happy to address any questions via either method as to why the final is deviating from the fears of missing $100m. A lot of things in play, not the least of which is the average ticket price possibly skewing higher than expected.

Just curious, do you expect MTC1 to have a normal or over-index for ERAS? Because if all I knew was their numbers, I could buy $120M+, as Friday was trending towards ~$45M (with a 40% ATP bump), and that was before more Friday shows were added 

 

But because this was a co-release, their name prominent at the jump, and such a large share of tickets were bought in the first few days/week, I’m of the opinion they’re going to remain a high-end outlier, the rest of the market not able to catch-up as we typically see with more GA/walk-up friendly releases 

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Thanks.

 

So, East coast leaves this with not much time before things start, and sales are definitely lagging.

 

My region (greater Toronto area) has added screenings from my check this morning, but almost everything is still just one showtime per theatre. It's interesting to see theatres take wildly different approaches.

 

I'm just eyeballing things, but we're looking at sales around 20-25 per showtime on average or so. And this is with some bigger auditoriums added, so there's going to be a lot of empty seats tonight.

 

 

3850 theaters * $22/ticket (when combining PLF and not-PLF) * 50 seats sold for each theater on Thursday = $4.235M Thurs

 

At the prices and huge footprint this movie has, you don't need to sell many tickets at many showings for it to add up quickly...