The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[M37]

On 9/22/2023 at 8:58 PM, M37 said:

To follow up on this question, the film with most frontloaded pre-sales in the Sacto data set was Strange MoM, which sold 2.31x its T-21 total by T-0, or in other words had sold 43% of its final tally by that T-21 checkpoint ... and ERAS has already sold 41% of all available seats for this market! [Yes, additional shows & seats can be added, but frankly not all that much for previously discussed reasons of start time and weekday screen fill]

 

We are almost certainly in unknown depths of frotloaded/U-curve bottoming out/low pace & growth rate, no path to guide, so its a bit of choose your own adventure. Setting aside comps (as none are viable), here is another way to speculate on the final total: what share of eventual tickets have already been purchased? Using the Sacto/Barbie PSM of ~$1850, and 1.5x (+50%) adjustment for ATP, gives an idea of where the range is approximately heading:

 

% sold	T-21 X	T-0 Proj	Est Gross
45%	2.22	17,082	$50.6
50%	2.00	15,374	$45.5
55%	1.82	13,976	$41.4
60%	1.67	12,812	$37.9
65%	1.54	11,826	$35.0
70%	1.43	10,981	$32.5
75%	1.33	10,249	$30.3

 

 

Personally, I believe - based on a big picture view of the data - that we're somewhere around the ~60% range at present, which puts $40M Fri in play (especially with the added layer of ATP adjustment), but could very well go under.  And that Saturday, despite far less capacity limitations, still trails Fri and isn't pacing all that much faster, is why my OW expectations have come down a fair amount over the past week or so

Now that we have final numbers on Swift ERAS, wanted to follow back up on this comment, to put some numbers down to how incredibly frontloaded the presales were for this release

 

I noted in above post that Strange MoM had sold 43% of its eventual final (T-0) ticket total by the T-21 checkpoint; sales more than doubled from there. Here's how much the various markets/samples had sold of their eventual final total by that same T-21 checkpoint for ERAS:

• Sacto = 76.9% [off the posted chart]
• Orlando = 82.5%
• Denver = 84.0%
• Drafthouse = 71.4%
• Emagine = 68.8%
• Oklahoma = 78.5%
• MTC1 (estimated) = 86%

I mean, there's frontloaded, within - or at least close to! - the normal bounds of box office tracking, and then there's off the charts, ridiculous, uber Swiftie frontloaded like we saw with ERAS (and are unlikely to see again, even with Beyonce)

[Shawn Robbins]

On Taylor:

 

For any baseball fans here, I feel like Bryce Harper after he realized he got too aggressive rounding second base in the 9th inning last Monday. 😔

 

Glad that track is over. Wish I'd have stuck with my gut on the pinpoint but hopefully the 105 floor will come to fruition (I personally doubt it will). The hype machine got too big over the last two months. Huge win for theaters no matter what though.

 

Nice work to all the counters here! I know that had to be a headache movie for literally everyone. 

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Average of the comps and my Thu/Fri multi are pointing to $40m OD. Uncertainty should run in both directions, but the vibes make me feel like something north of $42m won't happen. So I'll go with $36m +/- $5m for Friday. 

 

Need to brag about this because it's the only thing I got right about this movie 

 

 

Never questioning Jat again. 

 

[Inceptionzq]

19 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Saturday

336 Showings

10440

+945

46262

0.498	Barbie Fri T-1	23.81M
	Adjusted Barbie Fri T-1	35.72M

 

Bumped the adjustments for Saturday and Sunday up to 1.5x

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Saturday

330 Showings

11974

+1534

44529

0.943	Taylor Swift Fri	34.12M
0.465	Barbie Fri T-0	22.25M
	Adjusted Barbie Fri T-0	33.38M

0.505	Barbie Sat T-0	24.14M
	Adjusted Barbie Sat T-0	36.21M

[Inceptionzq]

19 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Saturday

359 Showings

17820

+1021

47502

ATP:

22.04

0.716	Thor L&T Fri T-1	29.05M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-1	43.48M
0.547	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-1	29.92M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-1	45.01M
0.482	NWH Fri T-1	34.70M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-1	52.05M

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Saturday

355 Showings

18856

+1036

46864

ATP:

22.09

0.635	Thor L&T Fri T-0	25.75M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-0	38.64M
0.507	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	27.74M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	41.83M
0.442	NWH Fri T-0	31.80M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-0	47.70M

0.547	Thor L&T Sat T-0	22.17M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-0	33.27M
0.429	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	23.45M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	35.37M
0.375	NWH Sat T-0	26.97M
	Adjusted NWH Sat T-0	40.46M

[Inceptionzq]

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Saturday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1888

5941

31.78%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2212

5982

36.98%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
10243	N/A	50709	20.20%	13	350

 

0.835

Taylor Swift Fri

30.22M

[Relevation]

On 9/21/2023 at 9:47 PM, Relevation said:

Gonna explore the question of where TS:Eras comps could end at in this post.

 

It’s been on a slow decline in comps every day for the last few weeks and the current T-# comps (with a 1.45x adjustment to calculate for ATP) have it at $45-54M FRI at @Porthos’s market and $60M FRI at @TheFlatLannister’s market. The bleeding appears to have been stopped in Orlando with comps stabilizing while Sacramento continues to slowly slide. Looking at these, I think heading into T-7 we can expect a roughly 3% rate of daily decline every day assuming Taylor doesn’t start some massive promo push. That’s 16 days of straight daily declines of 3% which would result in erosion of 40% by the time we get to T-7. So I predict we’ll be sitting around like $27-37M at T-7. From there it’s anyone’s guess as to what happens with that final week. Are there huge walkups as more casual fans buy their tickets? Does Taylor begin promoting it leading to higher awareness? Do comps just collapse? 
 

I do not think comps will collapse since there are still a huge contingent of casual Taylor fans who aren’t gonna buy the tickets at jump but still want to go, but it really depends as to how strong the late game sales are. I think there are 4 potential scenarios.

 

SCENARIO #1 - COMPS CONTINUE SLIDING FURTHER

For curiosity’s sake, let’s say comps just continue sliding further at their slow descent. In this scenario, comps continue sliding at the 3% rate of decline which would probably end comps at $22-30M for FRI. That off a 4.5-5x IM for Friday would probably yield a $110-135M opening weekend.

 

SCENARIO #2 - COMPS HOLD STEADY

In this outcome, let’s say that the walkups for The Eras Tour are just as straightforward as a normal MCU blockbuster and ergo, comps remain steady. If comps hold up around $27-37M for FRI then a 4.5-5x IM from Friday would result in an opening weekend for The Eras Tour of about $135-167M.

 

SCENARIO #3 - COMPS SEE SOME GROWTH

Now let’s explore the scenario in which the walkups for the Eras Tour do come in moderately strong force. The more casual fans decide to start buying their tickets late, the hype for the concert movie hits more of a pitch, and it can manage some moderate 5% daily growth heading into T-0. This would result in a strong 40% gain over that last week and bring comps back up to $38-52M for FRI. A 4.5-5x IM off that would get this to a massive $190-234M opening weekend.

 

SCENARIO #4 - COMPS SURGE WITH INSANE WALKUPS

And finally, let’s explore the optimistic scenario where Taylor Swift decides to put her full marketing force towards this concert movie. The casual fans come out in full force to buy tickets in the final week, the anticipation spikes, and the comps surge with 7.5% daily growth in the final week. That would send comps soaring 67% in the last week to a $45-62M FRI. And that gargantuan total off a 4.5x to 5x IM would send this to a $225-280M opening weekend.

 

In conclusion, I don’t think we can definitively rule out any of those scenarios from occurring when this movie reaches its final week because it depends on a myriad of X factors that we simply don’t know yet. However, I think I’ve explored the 4 potential paths this could take in that last week to hopefully get a sense of what this could do as that Oct 13 release looms.

Aaaaaaand SCENARIO 1 is the winner! I just overestimated how high the IM would be and underestimated how high FRI would be going into T-7.

[Nomoras]

Pulled just now. 

 

The Eras Tour	Occupied	Available	Seats	Filled	Quartiles	Theatre Count	Showtime Count
Today October 14, 2023	86048	142067	228115	37.72	0.0|14.2|38.11| 65.41|100.0	153/155	1024/1029
Delta (19h)	3836	-5749	-1913	1.98		154/155	1034/1036
Delta (72h)	8853	-10491	-1638	4.12		154/155	1029/1030

[keysersoze123]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I mean, it's all fun and games and a laugh on a Fri Night, but I tend to think it means... absolutely nothing at all.

 

Well, besides: Don't release tickets for non-IP animated family films a month and a third out!

 

10 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Its an original animation. Pre sales means nothing much till final week or two.

That said expecting a huge breakout or OW for these non franchise movies is setting yourself for disappointment. It could have Elemental kind of run but OW I am expecting to be meh. That said with a dreamworks animation(which looks trash but this shit works) coming up few weeks later and Wonka also being family friendly, its not going to be easy. Let us see where things are in a month. Do Critic screenings early and hope for universal rave to build hype. 

[tdangie]

Damn very impressed with @charlie Jatinder TET estimates! I can't believe $100M is (almost) ruled out for this movie.

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-26):

 

509 tickets sold (10 locations)/+18 YD

 

Comps:

0.735x Oppenheimer (D-26) = $7.72m

[Tinalera]

The Marvels

Vancouver Canada

Thurs Nov 9 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	18	96	3900	3996	0.0240

 

 

Gosh back to some sense of normality in tracking!

 

I will be getting Fridays included soon enough and hopefully back to cities like Calgary and Montreal soon. 

 

 

 

[emoviefan]

ERA's is out. Now everybody can start obessing about the Marvels and Wish....

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

ERA's is out. Now everybody can start obessing about the Marvels and Wish....

Nah. 1st

 

 

and of course the biggest movie of the month

 

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nah. 1st

 

 

and of course the biggest movie of the month

 

I am there For Killers. Really hoping it does well this final week.  Freddy's don't give a shit. I get there is a massive fanbase. I am not part of it. 

[charlie Jatinder]

TET will have 4.5M tix sold for weekend. think Freddy can top that with $55M type weekend.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/12/2023 at 2:26 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

FNAF MiniTC2 T-15 Days
 

Previews - 4631/48998 (189 showings)

Comps

1.05x Barbie - $23.6M

2.75x Oppenheimer - $26M (Adj for ATP)
1.15x Avatar 2 - $17.5M (Adj for ATP)
2.3x Eternals - $22M

 

4.6x of Scream VI - $26M

LOL.

FNAF MiniTC2 T-13 Days

 

Previews - 5334/62850 (247 showings)

 

Comps

1.06x Barbie - $23.8M

2.81x Oppenheimer - $26.25M (Adj for ATP)
1.16x Avatar 2 - $17.5M (Adj for ATP)
2.40x Eternals - $22.8M

2.24x The Flash - $21.7M

Still growing for Barbie comp. LOL.

Friday - 2081/61868 (241 showings)

 

Comps
0.64x Barbie - $30.9M

1.82x The Flash - $26.6M

 

Pretty Great result. I am obviously over-indexing for this which does happen at times for horror films but still LOL. The usual overindexing should still see these comps around $17-18M for THU. 
 

[Giorno]

How are friday sales looking for the marvels?

[Grand Cine]

@keysersoze123 you still can’t access at MTC1, MTC2.

 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Shawn said:

On Taylor:

 

For any baseball fans here, I feel like Bryce Harper after he realized he got too aggressive rounding second base in the 9th inning last Monday. 😔

 

Glad that track is over. Wish I'd have stuck with my gut on the pinpoint but hopefully the 105 floor will come to fruition. The hype machine got too big over the last two months. Huge win for theaters no matter what though.

 

Nice work to all the counters here! I know that had to be a headache movie for literally everyone. 

 

Objectively speaking, I did much worse than you, but...