The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Also, while thread diving for these numbers, found this exchange in regards two particular June releases to be particularly interesting after the fact (CC @Porthos)

 

 

GIft? 

 

*looks back over at Ava 2 posts*

 

More like Curse, sometimes. 

 

Spoiler

I did in fact draw attention to that exchange post-Flash at some point.  Can't recall if it was in one of the Tracking threads or a WE thread.

 

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, Austin said:

Just out of genuine curiousity, how might one go about tracking? Like, how to start? I don't know if there's a post or thread about this somewhere but I was just considering maybe getting into tracking myself.

As others have said well, just find something comfortable and just start. It might just be 1 theatre in your town, There are ways to count, from people using scrapers to get data to just manually counting a theatre from a website. Don't worry about getting into things like comps if you don't want to, even just a simple "Theatre X Five Nights at Freddys 200 of 400 seats sold" type of thing. Any data is good data and we are all just volunteers doing what we can. Even if you can't do every day but just pop in every few days, its all good and it all counts. It is very welcoming here, effort appreciated, whether its 1 theatre, a number of theatres, or countrywide. Just do what you feel comfortable with

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

After Death							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	12	23	1	84	2,116	3.97%	1.20%
T-6	12	23	9	93	2,116	4.40%	10.71%
T-5	12	23	8	101	2,020	5.00%	8.60%
T-4	12	23	5	106	2,020	5.25%	4.95%
T-3	12	23	17	123	2,020	6.09%	16.04%
MTC1	5	9	+4	31	732	4.23%	14.81%
MTC2	2	4	+2	26	392	6.63%	8.33%
MTC3	3	6	+7	60	706	8.50%	13.21%
Other	2	4	+4	6	190	3.16%	200.00%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.976x	=	$1.07m
Sound of Freedom					0.045x	=	$0.23m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					1.685x	=	$0.93m
A Haunting in Venice					0.885x	=	$1.06m
The Creator					0.502x	=	$0.80m

 

After Death							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	12	23	9	93	2,116	4.40%	10.71%
T-5	12	23	8	101	2,020	5.00%	8.60%
T-4	12	23	5	106	2,020	5.25%	4.95%
T-3	12	23	17	123	2,020	6.09%	16.04%
T-2	17	33	24	147	2,950	4.98%	19.51%
MTC1	5	9	+4	35	732	4.78%	12.90%
MTC2	4	8	+4	30	860	3.49%	15.38%
MTC3	3	6	+16	76	706	10.76%	26.67%
Other	5	10	0	6	652	0.92%	0.00%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.891x	=	$0.98m
Sound of Freedom					0.047x	=	$0.24m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					1.729x	=	$0.95m
A Haunting in Venice					0.795x	=	$0.95m
The Creator					0.471x	=	$0.75m

 

Would go with just under $1m at the moment.

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	23	122	97	1,540	17,247	8.93%	6.72%
T-6	23	127	163	1,703	17,848	9.54%	10.58%
T-5	23	133	133	1,836	18,653	9.84%	7.81%
T-4	23	137	128	1,964	18,992	10.34%	6.97%
T-3	23	141	231	2,195	19,325	11.36%	11.76%
MTC1	7	32	+87	831	3,333	24.93%	11.69%
MTC2	4	43	+43	488	6,015	8.11%	9.66%
MTC3	3	35	+55	500	5,855	8.54%	12.36%
Other	9	31	+46	376	4,122	9.12%	13.94%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.540x	=	$13.56m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					2.226x	=	$12.47m
Haunted Mansion					4.900x	=	$15.19m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.357x	=	$9.77m

 

Beat my self-imposed target. Best day so far. Will be keen to see everyone else's updates.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	23	127	163	1,703	17,848	9.54%	10.58%
T-5	23	133	133	1,836	18,653	9.84%	7.81%
T-4	23	137	128	1,964	18,992	10.34%	6.97%
T-3	23	141	231	2,195	19,325	11.36%	11.76%
T-2	24	163	308	2,503	21,648	11.56%	14.03%
MTC1	7	33	+112	943	3,421	27.57%	13.48%
MTC2	4	48	+55	543	6,559	8.28%	11.27%
MTC3	3	39	+79	579	6,395	9.05%	15.80%
Other	10	43	+62	438	5,273	8.31%	16.49%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.500x	=	$13.20m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.959x	=	$10.97m
Haunted Mansion					4.293x	=	$13.31m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.404x	=	$10.11m

 

Average is right around $12m without any ATP adjustment so thinking it comes in a bit below which is obviously still really good.

 

Show count is pretty much up there with all the larger ones I've tracked, a far cry from the 61 shows on day one.

 

The largest theatre I track (a MTC1) in terms of screens as well as number of seats usually sold still only has 3 showtimes for this on Thursday, haha. Maybe tomorrow they see the light.

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-21	21	173	14	493	32,650	1.51%	2.92%
T-20	21	173	15	508	32,650	1.56%	3.04%
T-19	21	173	27	535	32,650	1.64%	5.31%
T-18	21	173	14	549	32,650	1.68%	2.62%
T-17	21	173	18	567	32,650	1.74%	3.28%
MTC1	8	59	+5	293	10,485	2.79%	1.74%
MTC2	4	48	+5	72	8,204	0.88%	7.46%
MTC3	3	39	+3	154	8,077	1.91%	1.99%
Other	6	27	+5	48	5,884	0.82%	11.63%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.703x	=	$5.07m
Barbie					0.423x	=	$9.39m
Oppenheimer					0.729x	=	$7.65m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.107x	=	$9.75m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.672x

 

Added M:I comp, let's see how that goes. Everything pretty steady for now.

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-20	21	173	15	508	32,650	1.56%	3.04%
T-19	21	173	27	535	32,650	1.64%	5.31%
T-18	21	173	14	549	32,650	1.68%	2.62%
T-17	21	173	18	567	32,650	1.74%	3.28%
T-16	21	173	12	579	32,650	1.77%	2.12%
MTC1	8	59	+7	300	10,485	2.86%	2.39%
MTC2	4	48	+4	76	8,204	0.93%	5.56%
MTC3	3	39	+1	155	8,077	1.92%	0.65%
Other	6	27	0	48	5,884	0.82%	0.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.688x	=	$4.95m
Barbie					0.401x	=	$8.90m
Oppenheimer					0.704x	=	$7.40m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.059x	=	$9.31m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.648x

 

I would agree show count does seem a bit bloated but to be fair there is not a lot of competition around then and runtime is shorter that most other big titles this year. Wonder how much they will expand as we get closer to release. Anyway pretty quiet one again today.

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-20	21	173	15	508	32,650	1.56%	3.04%
T-19	21	173	27	535	32,650	1.64%	5.31%
T-18	21	173	14	549	32,650	1.68%	2.62%
T-17	21	173	18	567	32,650	1.74%	3.28%
T-16	21	173	12	579	32,650	1.77%	2.12%
MTC1	8	59	+7	300	10,485	2.86%	2.39%
MTC2	4	48	+4	76	8,204	0.93%	5.56%
MTC3	3	39	+1	155	8,077	1.92%	0.65%
Other	6	27	0	48	5,884	0.82%	0.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.688x	=	$4.95m
Barbie					0.401x	=	$8.90m
Oppenheimer					0.704x	=	$7.40m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.059x	=	$9.31m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.648x

 

I would agree show count does seem a bit bloated but to be fair there is not a lot of competition around then and runtime is shorter that most other big titles this year. Wonder how much they will expand as we get closer to release. Anyway pretty quiet one again today.

 

They won't have any expansion at most places.  I would bet there's less than 20% increase in DOM showtimes the week of.  I mean, look at your preview numbers compared to the number of showings/seats available.  And know the weekend is currently more barren.  And that there are other openers on Nov 3 and Nov 10..,

[Hilts]

On 10/18/2023 at 10:54 PM, Hilts said:

Trolls Band Together							OK
Saturday - 2pm - Early Access Screenings

 

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-17	10	10	28	28	1,481	1.89%

 

MTC1	3	3		11	213	5.16%
MTC2	2	2		0	239	0.00%
MTC3	3	3		15	634	2.37%
Other	2	2		2	395	0.51%

Thursday - showings starting 2pm

 

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-29	20	90	18	18	13,182	0.14%

 

MTC1	7	25		2	2,673	0.07%
MTC2	4	27		0	4,460	0.00%
MTC3	3	16		6	3,224	0.19%
Other	6	22		10	2,825	0.35%

 

Day 1 Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.767x	=	$2.38m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.465x	=	$2.60m
Wish					1.385x

 

Pretty good start? Wish comp excludes EA for parity.

 

Pardon my ignorance but didn't even realise this was the 3rd one in the franchise...

 

 

Trolls Band Together							OK
Saturday - 2pm - Early Access Screenings
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-15	10	10	7	44	1,481	2.97%	18.92%
T-14	10	10	6	50	1,481	3.38%	13.64%
T-13	10	10	0	50	1,481	3.38%	0.00%
T-12	10	10	18	68	1,481	4.59%	36.00%
T-11	10	10	35	103	1,481	6.95%	51.47%

 

Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-27	20	86	2	27	12,634	0.21%	8.00%
T-26	20	86	0	27	12,634	0.21%	0.00%
T-25	20	86	2	29	12,634	0.23%	7.41%
T-24	20	86	2	31	12,634	0.25%	6.90%
T-23	20	86	0	31	12,634	0.25%	0.00%

 

Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.492x	=	$1.53m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.387x	=	$2.17m

 

Thought I'd drop an update here.

 

EA sales dominating, I think Thursday previews will stay pretty low until we get past that Saturday.

 

Take comps with a pinch given the EA rollout skewing things but think this is a reasonable ballpark. Unfortunately I missed Elemental which would be ideal here.

 

Wish is still very quiet locally but we are still a month out. If it sells any tomorrow I will post then.

[Relevation]

What are the odds we see a split like this for FNAF’s opening weekend

 

$12M Thurs

$37M Fri ($49M OD)

$32M Sat

$21M Sun

$102M OW

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, Relevation said:

What are the odds we see a split like this for FNAF’s opening weekend

 

$12M Thurs

$37M Fri ($49M OD)

$32M Sat

$21M Sun

$102M OW

I hope that happens, so you and @Bob Train can be correct

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Relevation said:

What are the odds we see a split like this for FNAF’s opening weekend

 

$12M Thurs

$37M Fri ($49M OD)

$32M Sat

$21M Sun

$102M OW

Too high. I am not seeing that high. Would need Mario kind of walkups which is not happening for sure. 

[DAJK]

Re tracking, I started back in 2015 when I started working at a local theatre. I kept track of sales at that theater, and used those comparisons to make predictions for upcoming releases. Over time I added more theaters to my usual tracking. Over time, the other amazing people in this thread made the system better, gathering more and more data and using those regional comparisons to predict opening weekends based on presales, something I was never able to do using just a few handful of theaters.

[keysersoze123]

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC2 Friday  - 135845/811062 1635530.81 5636 shows

 

Really strong at both big MTC. 

[Porthos]

@Austin

 

The single biggest/most important piece of advice I can give you?

 

Well, besides soaking in all of the other advice?

 

DO NOT, and I can not stress this enough, ***DO NOT*** USE SMALL/MEDIUM RELEASES AS A GAUGE OF WHAT YOU ARE COMFORTABLE WITH WHEN IT COMES TO SAMPLING!

 

Why?

 

Because you'll think you can reach an equilibrium and then a Huge Release Monster will come around and just blow that sense of equilibrium out of the fucking water.

 

Or worse, two or three or four or five releases out at the same time will come along and just swamp you.

 

More trackers than I can count have flamed out to burnout because they misgauged or just got sick and tired of what they would be comfortable with when it came to tracking.  Including long time heavy hitters like our own @Eric Mouse (though in the case of Eric, they also had shifting work patterns but that Mar-May period this year was hellish).

 

Varying ways of automation, starting with semi-automation (key word searches via HTML code/Inspect Elements) and going all the way up to full blown scrapers can help.  But at a certain point, it can get overwhelming no matter how many tools/shortcuts one has at their disposal.

 

Hell, only reason I track the entire Greater Sacto region was because when I started out previews typically started at 7pm and about 1/3rd of the market was still non-reserved seating.  Over the years, as previews have dramatically expanded and practically everyone has reserved seating? Let's just say that I personally would have quit years ago if I hadn't found several ways to mitigate the time to do things.

 

(and even here I've been considering revising my informal 7/70 rule due to IMs getting kneecapped with 2pm/3pm previews becoming standard)

 

So, yeah, listen to the technical advice and find out what works for you as well as what interest you in the area?  But, as a more general matter?  Whatever you think you'd like to look at?  Ask yourself if you'd really want to look at all those theaters with an Endgame like monster going on. 

[M37]

Deadline: $50M+ for FNAF

 

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, M37 said:

Deadline: $50M+ for FNAF

 

 

$50M+

 

 

[Porthos]

Quote

Presales have grown to a crazy amount on this $20M production since we last reported (some saying well north of $11M), with some exhibitors projecting a tentpole-type opening of $85M. However, what should give one pause here is the whole theatrical day-and-date of it all on Peacock (note the movie is only available on a paid tier). Last year, many swore $50M+ on Halloween Ends and that wound up crashing at a $40M opening, as the sequel wound up scoring record weekend viewership on Peacock simultaneously.

 

@M37 secret identity profession being put in jeopardy here?!? 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/23/2023 at 6:59 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2208	52152	4.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

29

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-17

 

 

(0.443x) of GOTG3~$7.75M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.75M

 

Remember when I said...

 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2228	52152	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

 

(0.439x) of GOTG3~$7.68M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.68M

[Eric Burnett]

42 minutes ago, M37 said:

Deadline: $50M+ for FNAF

 

There is a +. It’s not wrong when you think about it.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/23/2023 at 7:05 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
231	4313	43329	9.95%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

449

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

26

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.194x) of Flash $11.58M Previews

(0.717x) of ATSV $12.44M Previews

(1.953x) of Fast X $14.65M Previews

(0.561x) of Barbie $11.83M Previews

Comps AVG: $12.63M

 

Looks like exhibitors are giving this a blockbuster rollout. Previews over The Marvels looks locked imo (barring some crazy late surge by The Marvels)

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
284	4779	53719	8.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

466

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

53

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.185x) of Flash $11.50M Previews

(0.706x) of ATSV $12.25M Previews

(1.916x) of Fast X $14.38M Previews

(0.537x) of Barbie $11.33M Previews

Comps AVG: $12.37M

 

 

Sheesh show count exploded today. I'm agreeing with the ~12m previews projections 

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/20/2023 at 4:22 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Wish (T-32):

Day: T-32	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	60	2	32	7419	0.43

 

Type of tix:		Total:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0
MTC1:		16	50
Marcus:		11	34.38
Alamo:		0	0
Other chains		5	15.63

 

Going to start adding this table, posting this today as sort of a pilot (looks silly for this release specifically because of so few tickets sold). PLF includes anything that is considered PLF for that theater/chain: IMAX, Dolby, Prime, XDX, DLX, EMX, Monster Alamo's "the big show". I wanna keep track of three specific chains: MTC1, because it's always the one with most pre-sales; Alamo, because it has overindexed in some specific releases that usually do not reflect as much walk-up traffic (KOFM is the latest example); Marcus, because I have noticed the opposite happening (when it overindexes, it seems to reflect better walk-up traffic). All of these are anecdotal observations so I want to keep track of that and see if it checks out. More date is usually better anyway!

 

Other chains include: 5 Emagine theaters, a few local/Midwestern chains (2 Mann theaters, 1 B&B, 1 CMX, 1 Showplace Icon, and 1 local theater.

 

Also, I once again apologize for the different colors, makes this look like a rainbow but my brain needs them to keep my spreadsheet organized lol.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Wish (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	60	7	39	7419	0.53

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		19	3	48.72
Marcus:		11	0	28.21
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		9	4	23.08

 

Haunted Mansion and Paw Patrol comps in one week. Limited in usefulness of course, but better than nothing!