The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[misterpepp]

The Color Purple on sale Nov 1

 

Early Access tickets for Wish go on sale today, the showings are on Nov 18.

Edited October 26, 2023 by misterpepp

[Grand Cine]

10 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

The Color Purple on sale Nov 1

 

Early Access tickets for Wish go on sale today, the showings are on Nov 18.

It's very early for Color People and at the almost same time of beginning than Hunger Games ( with the other movies to track)

 

I don't think than early access for Wish will change everything ( he will be 100K or 200K in the total previews)

Edited October 26, 2023 by Grand Cine

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26468	27574	1106	4.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

19

 

T-16 Comps:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	62.98		137	1756		0/96	13774/15530	11.31%		6409	17.26%		6.76m
GOTG3	31.80		45	3478		0/203	25617/29095	11.95%		10750	10.29%		5.56m
TLM	82.29		118	1344		0/154	21376/22720	5.92%		6561	16.86%		8.48m
AtSV	60.74		79	1821		0/123	18098/19919	9.14%		9744	11.35%		10.54m
Flash	99.10		34	1116		0/178	24032/25148	4.44%		5327	20.76%		9.61m
Indy 5	99.10		10	1116		0/128	19125/20241	5.51%		4767	23.20%		7.14m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     154/8661  [1.78% sold]
Matinee:    37/2547  [1.45% | 3.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:            70/5021  [1.39% | 6.33% of all tickets sold]

 

 

(Inexplicable) One Day Blip it is then!

("Ah, well, nevertheless" would have also worked here, but that might be a bit of a fringy meme)

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26458	27577	1119	4.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

13

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	59.43		127	1883		0/96	13658/15541	12.12%		6409	17.46%		6.38m
GOTG3	31.55		69	3547		0/203	25548/29095	12.19%		10750	10.41%		5.52m
TLM	77.71		96	1440		0/154	21277/22717	6.34%		6561	17.06%		8.00m
AtSV	59.14		71	1892		0/123	18027/19919	9.50%		9744	11.48%		10.27m
Flash	96.30		46	1162		0/178	23986/25148	4.62%		5327	21.01%		9.34m
Indy 5	95.72		53	1169		0/128	19072/20241	5.78%		4767	23.47%		6.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       157/8661  [1.81% sold]
Matinee:    38/2548  [1.49% | 3.40% of all tickets sold]
3D:              71/5021  [1.41% | 6.34% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

@keysersoze123 :  Um.... Not yet. 🙂 

 

PREEMPTIVE (not a mod, mind) "***NOT*** THE MARVELS THREAD" REMINDER, and keeping the following solely on tracking:  I did express some ambivalence at the idea that any sort of major rumor-mongering might have enough time locally to be picked up by tracking.  Could have gone either way, as I was just unsure.  So.... "Um... Not yet. 🙂 "

 

NB:  While I did mention a possible incoming Halo Effect in that very post, a key component of my Halo Effect thoughts is that folks have to be at the theater to get a "sure, I'll pick up some tickets for UPCOMING MOVIE while I'm here" boost.  I would tend to think just the opposite might be happening in the direct lead up/day before a major release.  Though I admit to not paying nearly as much casual attention to that sort of thing.

 

Anyway.... "Not yet. 🙂 "

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	23745	27965	4220	15.09%

 

Total Showings Added Today	15
Total Seats Added Today	1835
Total Seats Sold Today	524

 

T-2 Comps:   WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic2	201.34		466	2096		0/119	13278/15374	13.63%		3951	106.81%		12.58m
Min 2	154.35		829	2734		0/214	27446/30180	9.06%		6591	64.03%		16.59m
BA	164.27		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	93.90%		12.32m
Scrm6	236.95		268	1781		0/111	11647/13428	13.26%		3134	134.65%		13.51m
Wick4	131.92		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	77.46%		11.74m
AtSV	78.10		944	5403		0/230	23909/29312	18.43%		9744	43.31%		13.55m
GOTG3	58.70		883	7189		0/315	31900/39089	18.39%		10750	39.26%		10.27m
TLM	106.24		435	3972		0/221	24918/28890	13.75%		6561	64.32%		10.94m
Flash	149.54		409	2822		0/197	23670/26492	10.65%		5327	79.22%		14.51m
Barbie	55.41		1043	7616		0/244	19827/27443	27.75%		12077	34.94%		12.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        875/7186  [12.18% sold]
Matinee:    310/3138  [9.88% | 7.35% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Yeaaah, I dunno.  Thinking of lowering my target now to 11m-12m. Screen capacity is absolutely there, as even more screens got added tonight.  Could still hit 12-13, mind, as ironically enough Barbie is pointing to that, both on overall comp and pace.  But Barbs underperformed here (almost certainly thanks to capacity) and while FNAF will have more PLFs and more late night walkups, capacity is not gonna be an issue here.  At all.

 

Still... Not ruling out 12m-13m, as finding the right comps can be difficult at best.  Plus the early WOM out of the UK might start moving the needle.  But, keeping my mind open on it being 11m-12m is probably where I'm at right now.

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	246	23639	28792	5153	17.90%

 

Total Showings Added Today	11
Total Seats Added Today	827
Total Seats Sold Today	933

 

T-1 Comps:   WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR *SOME* OF THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic2	178.74		787	2883		0/125	12991/15874	18.16%		3951	130.42%		11.17m
Min 2	128.18		1286	4020		0/214	26160/30180	13.32%		6591	78.18%		13.78m
BA	163.38		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	114.66%		12.25m
Scrm6	226.11		498	2279		0/116	11326/13605	16.75%		3134	164.42%		12.89m
Wick4	131.62		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	94.59%		11.71m
AtSV	73.25		1632	7035		0/251	23809/30844	22.81%		9744	52.88%		12.71m
GOTG3	61.62		1174	8363		0/343	33312/41675	20.07%		10750	47.93%		10.78m
TLM	103.60		1002	4974		0/225	24182/29156	17.06%		6561	78.54%		10.67m
Flash	142.47		795	3617		0/203	23257/26874	13.46%		5327	96.73%		13.82m
Barbie	54.51		1837	9453		3/268	20134/29587	31.95%		12077	42.67%		12.16m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1093/7921  [13.80% sold]
Matinee:    219/2695  [8.13% | 4.25% of all tickets sold]

*NOTE: Matinee ticket number dropped after I took the time tonight to go through some recently added showtimes with a fine-tooth comb (as Fandango makes it an extra step to find out current pricing)

 

====

 

I was looking for something of an informal target of around 1000 tickets sold tonight as something of a benchmark tonight, and FNAF came up just a bit short.   Except for the GOTG3 comp, all comps came down across the board, though some only just.

 

Gun to my head, probably eyeballing 11.5m (or a touch less) right now out of Sacramento, but comps from GA based films (which this still is, relatively speaking) can always jump around a lot at T-0, so it could be lower or higher than that.  Will say I'm not seeing what I'd like for 12m-13m, but not willing to close the book on it touching 12m quite yet.

 

NB:  The Scream VI comp is particularly unsuitable due to heavy PLF show count and 3D and R rating, so keep that in mind when looking at it.  On the other hand, do think ATP needs to be considered when looking at Sonic 2, so swings and roundabouts.

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Porthos

[Hilts]

33 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

Early Access tickets for Wish go on sale today, the showings are on Nov 18.

 

Just saw that confirmed in the Wish thread so thanks for that.

 

Selfishly was literally just thinking when posting my latest tracking update earlier that if Wish had EA screenings that would be helpful to align my current comps, and voila! Let's see how wide the rollout is but aligning with Trolls being on a Saturday I'm thinking these will be pretty busy too.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-16, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 572

New sales: 26

Growth: 4.8%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 14.7

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.440x of ATSV for $7.6M

 

More meh.

 

The Marvels, T-15, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 604

New sales: 32

Growth: 5.6%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 15.5

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.619x of ATSV for $10.7M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 2.6 (2.8)

Early evening: 82.1 (83.4)

Late Evening: 14.6 (13.8)

 

Added in the showtime slot analysis. I'm not sure on the utility of this, but in terms of additional data dimensions that I could bring, it felt like the most interesting to me.  I was going to bring format instead, but, with so many variations and overlaps (Dolby, 3d, screen X, VIP recliner, etc.), it felt too complex. And with a small theatre set, I'm unsure on utility. I'm open to any feedback on this approach.

 

As for sales, no measurable impact of any cameo rumors. Nor would I expect much. I think fans focused on that are already on board (note: I have no idea what's even being rumored).

[vafrow]

In other news, Wish is available for sale in Canada for MTC4. I'm not sure when it went up.

 

I did a quick check, and there's about 10 tickets sold for my coverage area. I won't be tracking this though personally.

[charlie Jatinder]

Wish has added up to some sales in MiniTC2 for an original animation this far out. Could be a rare Disney W these days, especially after 2 disastrous Thanksgiving weekend. 

Edited October 26, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Malco Thursday T-1

 

Theater count - 10

Show count - 25

Seats sold - 298

Total seats - 4270

% sold - 6.98%

Coverage - 10/33 theaters

 

No comps

 

Friday T-2

 

Theater count - 10

Show count - 111

Seats sold - 1049

Total seats - 14570

% sold - 6.72%

Coverage - 10/33 theaters

 

Comp

 

3.52x FNaF Thursday = ??

---

 

Tickets just went on sale here yesterday evening lol. The Friday comp is def being impacted by blocked seats. I'd guess there are about 2 being counted per show,.. so the true multi on Thu is probably ~2.7x 

 

 

 

 

Five Nights at Freddy's Malco Thursday T-0

 

Coverage - 10/33 theaters

Show count - 25

Seats sold - 615

Total seats - 4270

% sold - 14.4%

New sales - 317

 

no comps

 

Friday T-1

 

Show count - 111

Seats sold - 1832

Total seats - 14570

% sold - 12.3%

New sales - 783

 

Comp 

 

2.98x FNaF Thu T-0 = ??

 

---

 

$30m+ true Friday looks in reach to me. Thinking $80m +/- $10m for the weekend. 

 

 

[filmlover]

Wish is having some early shows Saturday the 18th. Must've been just announced.

[filmlover]

Also showtimes are now starting to appear for both Hunger Games and Thanksgiving but they aren't on sale yet. Thursday preview start times are 3:00 for the former and 7:00 for the latter.

[Boxofficerules]

What are the chances that Thanksgiving outsells Hunger Games?

[Arlborn]

21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Also showtimes are now starting to appear for both Hunger Games and Thanksgiving but they aren't on sale yet. Thursday preview start times are 3:00 for the former and 7:00 for the latter.

3 PM, really? I know it’s been happening a lot lately, but they might as well just officially incorporate Thursdays to the box office weekend with the way things are going.   
 

Midnight previews were actually fun, it felt cool and exclusive, it felt nice to be surrounded by just the big fans of a certain franchise, the hype was very palpable always. Now they’re just not as special, but oh well, I won’t digress further into the old man yells at clouds trope.

[M37]

On 10/24/2023 at 9:15 AM, M37 said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Preview Tracking T-3 Update

Enough new data points to update the chart:

 

Not gonna lie, this is a bit messy, in part because comps are generally grouped very closely together - increasing confidence in the values - but also moving in different directions, which adds a layer of uncertainty. Average his dipped a bit to ~$12.75, and MTC1 is still on the low end (~$11M), so from here ~$12M Thursday seems like a good target to me (after adjusting for ATP)

 

There is good reason in the data to be not concerned, but certainly hesitant on projecting too high; pace since T-7 isn't quite where one might hope. However, FNAF has had a weird daily sales pattern, probably in large part because its a fan-driven IP - basically a YA film - to much of the audience, but much more a generic PG13 horror film to the GA. In terms of daily and multi-day pace, the closest comp I have been able to find is: Jurassic World Dominion. That's a notorious walk-up monster, which also has an atypical market skew including underindexing at MTC1. Just wanted to throw that out there in case we do see a huge final push, for Thursday and/or Friday

Five Nights at Freddy's Preview Tracking T-1 Update

 

Not a positive trendline heading into the final day

 

Most likely explanation is that FNAF is a fan driven, poorly-reviewed, day & date release and those factors are combining to limit the late sale push, comp values will continue to slide in the final day and wind up at $11M+, if not falling below that value.

 

But I do want to highlight what I mentioned in previous post, about FNAF tracking very closely pace wise to two particularly walk-up heavy titles:

 

Even in the best case seems unlikely that FNAF could match the growth in final day of those two notoriously walk-up heavy franchises, but with this being such an unusual audience composition, wouldn't rule out at least coming close, even if the values here are probably overstated. For context, a generic PG13 horror flick like Boogeyman saw sales nearly double in final day in some samples (see here and here), and while that certainly won't happen at this volume, it does illustrate the lake break of the non-IP fan audience

 

Overall, think OW is ~$80M, with the performance in final day determining whether to take the over or the under

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

3 PM, really? I know it’s been happening a lot lately, but they might as well just officially incorporate Thursdays to the box office weekend with the way things are going.   
 

Midnight previews were actually fun, it felt cool and exclusive, it felt nice to be surrounded by just the big fans of a certain franchise, the hype was very palpable always. Now they’re just not as special, but oh well, I won’t digress further into the old man yells at clouds trope.

Eh, 3:00 previews have been common for a while for the big titles. FNAF is starting at 2:00 today. Midnight shows quickly ceased being a thing after Aurora in 2012.

[TwoMisfits]

17 hours ago, Shawn said:

FNAF final* forecast is up. After back-to-back releases and being too bullish, hopefully the third time this month is the charm.

 

*unless the next 16-24 hours of pre-sales pacing is just putrid

 

My gut says a little high with $78M, but more in the ballpark than last week:).

 

If you want someone who's been pushing all month that ending/last minute/walk up sales are just not there after student loans and school restarted...

 

[M37]

8 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Early Access tickets for Wish go on sale today, the showings are on Nov 18.

Disney putting out a (late) EA/Sneak preview of Wish against the opening Saturday of Trolls (families) & Hunger Games (Disney Adults) is certainly a choice.  TMNT did do the same vs Haunted Mansion OW though 

 

@TheFlatLannister wouldn’t be surprised if your next update or two are negative as Tue pre-sales are swapped for the new EA show 

[Eric the Minion]

https://deadline.com/2023/10/the-hunger-games-the-ballad-of-songbirds-and-snakes-box-office-1235583987/

 

Quote

EXCLUSIVE: Lionsgate and Francis Lawrence’s return to the Suzanne Collins franchise with a pic based on her prequel novel is looking like a $50M start on Nov. 17, which is in the vicinity of 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes ($54.8M). While women 17-34 are indeed the hot demo for The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, it’s not excessively female as there is interest from males as well. The pic cost around $100M.

 

The Netflix Rewatch Campaign in March 2023 generated enormous engagement, generating new TikTok videos posted about The Hunger Games that month, a threefold increase compared to February 2023. The new posts reached an estimated 83M TikTok users and amassed 17M engagements on the platform.

Across Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter, The Hunger Games weekly new follower base increased +425% on average in the month of March. With stats like that, it made sense for Lionsgate to stay the course for the pic’s release in November.

 

[Eric the Minion]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

Disney putting out a (late) EA/Sneak preview of Wish against the opening Saturday of Trolls (families) & Hunger Games (Disney Adults) is certainly a choice.  TMNT did do the same vs Haunted Mansion OW though 

 

@TheFlatLannister wouldn’t be surprised if your next update or two are negative as Tue pre-sales are swapped for the new EA show 

I mean Universal has done the exact same playbook. Sing had sneak previews on the opening Saturday of Moana, Sing 2 on the opening Saturday of Encanto, Puss in Boots 2 the opening Saturday of Strange World. It's a free country, so why not copy the competition and play dirty right back?

[Grand Cine]

2 minutes ago, Eric Fazbear said:

https://deadline.com/2023/10/the-hunger-games-the-ballad-of-songbirds-and-snakes-box-office-1235583987/

 

 

Good for the budget , i think if the movie makes like 300-350M , i think it's a little victory for Lionsgate because outside John Wick , it's not a good year for them.