The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/biggest-movies-theaters-november-2023/

 

A new Disney animated musical, a new Marvel Cinematic Universe installment, a new Hunger Games prequel. With 14 wide releases, by Boxoffice PRO‘s count, this might mark the largest amount of new wide releases of any post-pandemic month to date.

And not a one of them a sure fire hit 

[filmlover]

The only real surprise on that Fandango poll is Trolls 3 nowhere to be found (considering it's a franchise - which these tend to favor - and releasing in just a few weeks). Feeding into the notion that going VOD during the pandemic with the last one really took the theatrical air out of this IP.

[Arlborn]

52 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

And not a one of them a sure fire hit 

There’s always something unexpected that rises up, especially when nothing is a sure hit around it.

[YM!]

56 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The only real surprise on that Fandango poll is Trolls 3 nowhere to be found (considering it's a franchise - which these tend to favor - and releasing in just a few weeks). Feeding into the notion that going VOD during the pandemic with the last one really took the theatrical air out of this IP.

I’m not worried about it not making especially when the target audience aren’t the ticket buyers, same goes for Migration and Wish. I mean, Elemental didn’t make Fandango’s top ten and become second biggest film of June 2023. The fact that Wish is number 6 on here is impressive.

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Feeding into the notion that going VOD during the pandemic with the last one really took the theatrical air out of this IP.

 

huh

I myself thought 5hat was one of the biggest things it had going for it

and for such a kiddy movie I dont think an absence in a top 10 means anything 

 

[keysersoze123]

46 minutes ago, YM! said:

I’m not worried about it not making especially when the target audience aren’t the ticket buyers, same goes for Migration and Wish. I mean, Elemental didn’t make Fandango’s top ten and become second biggest film of June 2023. The fact that Wish is number 6 on here is impressive.

while Elemental legs was really good, why is "2nd biggest" movie is any impressive in a month of disasters(Flash and Indy 5). 

 

Plus domestic(which this thread is tracking), Elemental was actually 4th behind Spidey, Indy 5 and Transformers. 

 

What was crazy about summer list is how low Barbie was. While I get why Oppy was that low(not that many nolanites voting on fandango for sure) but Barbie had social media buzz even in May. That is when I realized its going to do well and joined Valonqor's club. 

 

Anyway with Wish being on the list, there is little justification for Trolls Sequel to be missing. Just that I feel most will wait for it to hit streaming. Presales so far seem to be ok(not terrible for sure) but nothing noteworthy(as is for Wish). Let us see how WOM is for early screenings this saturday. Hopefully things pick up and we have good 1-2 punch along with Hunger Games. 

Edited November 1, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes tickets are now live.

 

I suspect they went live at midnight, Eastern (though I didn't check at that exact time).

Edited November 1, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 10/30/2023 at 11:46 PM, Porthos said:

 

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26310	27628	1318	4.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

67

 

T-10 Comps:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	55.75		124	2364		0/96	13177/15541	15.21%		6409	20.56%		5.99m
GOTG3	32.66		153	4036		0/205	25321/29357	13.75%		10750	12.26%		5.71m
TLM	65.74		142	2005		0/153	20609/22614	8.87%		6561	20.09%		6.77m
AtSV	54.89		154	2401		0/129	18385/20786	11.55%		9744	13.53%		9.53m
Flash	92.23		59	1429		0/178	23719/25148	5.68%		5327	24.74%		8.95m
Indy 5	85.75		114	1537		0/134	19034/20571	7.47%		4767	27.65%		6.17m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     206/8596  [2.40% sold]
Matinee:    52/2546  [2.04% | 3.95% of all tickets sold]
3D:            79/5008  [1.58% | 5.99% of all tickets sold]

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	190	26315	27697	1382	4.99%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	69
Total Seats Sold Today	64

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	55.61		121	2485		0/99	13201/15686	15.84%		6409	21.56%		5.97m
GOTG3	32.60		124	4239		0/207	25745/29984	14.14%		10750	12.86%		5.71m
TLM	64.88		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	9.06%		6561	21.06%		6.68m
AtSV	53.30		192	2593		0/140	19549/22142	11.71%		9744	14.18%		9.25m
Flash	89.22		120	1549		0/175	23344/24893	6.22%		5327	25.94%		8.65m
Indy 5	84.89		91	1628		0/134	18934/20571	7.91%		4767	28.99%		6.11m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     212/8665  [2.45% sold]
Matinee:    52/2546  [2.04% | 3.76% of all tickets sold]
3D:            83/5008  [1.66% | 6.01% of all tickets sold]

[JustLurking]

55 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	190	26315	27697	1382	4.99%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	69
Total Seats Sold Today	64

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	55.61		121	2485		0/99	13201/15686	15.84%		6409	21.56%		5.97m
GOTG3	32.60		124	4239		0/207	25745/29984	14.14%		10750	12.86%		5.71m
TLM	64.88		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	9.06%		6561	21.06%		6.68m
AtSV	53.30		192	2593		0/140	19549/22142	11.71%		9744	14.18%		9.25m
Flash	89.22		120	1549		0/175	23344/24893	6.22%		5327	25.94%		8.65m
Indy 5	84.89		91	1628		0/134	18934/20571	7.91%		4767	28.99%		6.11m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     212/8665  [2.45% sold]
Matinee:    52/2546  [2.04% | 3.76% of all tickets sold]
3D:            83/5008  [1.66% | 6.01% of all tickets sold]

Not sure which of the two is wrong but I think there's a mistake on the GOTG3 row, as it says sold was 124 but total increased by 203.

Edited November 1, 2023 by JustLurking

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Not sure which of the two is wrong but I think there's a mistake on the GOTG3 row, as it says sold was 124 but total increased by 203.

 

Neither is wrong.  That was the day I discovered that a couple of the local theaters were indeed having the GOTG Marathon, and I added it to the totals (I had checked it periodically but hadn't caught it until then)

 

From my Master Sheet:

	Showings	Seats	Sold Seats
Marathon Added:	2	606	79

 

79 + 124 = 203. 🙂 

 

I suppose I could have made a note about it in the post just now, but I didn't feel it made that much difference as the daily pace (which was indeed 124 that day) and the overall comp are still measuring two different things.  Do appreciate you paying close attention though as I do make the occasional mistake! 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Porthos

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Neither is wrong.  That was the day I discovered that a couple of the local theaters were indeed having the GOTG Marathon, and I added it to the totals (I had checked it periodically but hadn't caught it until then)

 

From my Master Sheet:

	Showings	Seats	Sold Seats
Marathon Added:	2	606	79

 

79 + 124 = 203. 🙂 

 

I suppose I could have made a note about it in the post just now, but I didn't feel it made that much difference as the daily pace and the overall comp are still measuring two different things.  Do appreciate you paying close attention though as I do make the occasional mistake! 

 

 

Ah I see, good to know.

[charlie Jatinder]

The Marvels MiniTC2 T-9 Days

Previews - 1305/69630 (262 showings)

 

Comps

0.46x of Eternals - $4M
0.47x of The Flash - $4M
0.77x of Shang Chi - $6.5M

0.28x of Spider Verse 2 - $4.9M
0.18x of GoTG 3 - $3.2M
0.11x of Black Panther 2 - $3M (adj for under indexing $3.3M)

[vafrow]

Hunger Games has tickets for sale on Cineplex (although not all locations yet, I imagine it will be added over the morning). I'm debating on whether to do a track or not. The short cycle helps. I'll also likely shift to a five theatre sample.

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The Marvels MiniTC2 T-9 Days

Previews - 1305/69630 (262 showings)

 

Comps

0.46x of Eternals - $4M
0.47x of The Flash - $4M
0.77x of Shang Chi - $6.5M

0.28x of Spider Verse 2 - $4.9M
0.18x of GoTG 3 - $3.2M
0.11x of Black Panther 2 - $3M (adj for under indexing $3.3M)

Your area is really underestimated LOL

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-10, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 727

New sales: 29

Growth: 4.2%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 41

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.350x of ATSV for $6.1M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 2.6 (2.7)

Early evening: 81.2 (80.8)

Late Evening: 16.2 (16.5)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 2.7

Early Evening: 32.8

Late Evening: 7.4

Avg: 17.7

 

Better than yesterday. Still not great.

 

The one theatre that wasn't playing it yet added showtimes. It's odd to add it now, when theyre doing the full schedule update later today.  But they've added full weekend sets, so it makes sense.

 

Speaking of which, we'll find out what type of expansion it gets as the schedule to Thursday is established. At this point, there's little challenge in getting a ticket. Only showtimes near sellout are the smaller, 60 seat VIP auditoriums. But if you want an IMAX or regular screen, there's lots of space. But, it's not like there's a lot of other options for theatres right now, so we'll see.

 

The Marvels, T-9, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 759

New sales: 32

Growth: 4.4%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 56

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.311x of ATSV for $5.4M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 2.9 (2.6)

Early evening: 80.8 (81.2)

Late Evening: 16.3 (16.2)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 1.8

Early Evening: 26.7

Late Evening: 5.9

Avg: 13.6

 

Growth remains weak. 

 

Showtimes were added. It went from 41 to 56. Given sales level, it's pretty aggressive, but, for a Marvel movie in general, it usually adds a lot more at this stage. I don't think any of the added showtimes saw any sales last night, but, maybe people had better things to do than focus on Marvel tickets.

[TwoMisfits]

So, my locals are definitely feeling the Nov 17 movie crunch or like FNAF, they are taking a wait and see approach to the Hunger Games prequel. 

 

Right now, both my locals are going 2 screens, but that means only 6-8 showings/day (depending if Fri/Sat).  It does get 1 of the 2 XD at my PLF local.

 

Now, to see if we have a Spidey/FNAF scenario where they expand before release week, or if this just gets limited b/c of showings...right now, the set is not great for anyone who wants a breakout...

[tdangie]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, my locals are definitely feeling the Nov 17 movie crunch or like FNAF, they are taking a wait and see approach to the Hunger Games prequel. 

 

Right now, both my locals are going 2 screens, but that means only 6-8 showings/day (depending if Fri/Sat).  It does get 1 of the 2 XD at my PLF local.

 

Now, to see if we have a Spidey/FNAF scenario where they expand before release week, or if this just gets limited b/c of showings...right now, the set is not great for anyone who wants a breakout...

Maybe theaters wanna be conservative with scheduling shows due to its long runtime? I'm also seeing less showtimes in my area than I expected especially for a big-budget blockbuster. Although at least I'm seeing some PLFs reserved for it, which FNAF didn't have on the first pre-sale day, so the exhibitors do have some expectations on how this film should perform in the box office.

 

Another part of me wonders if The Marvels underperforming in pre-sales is making exhibitors more wary about reserving a lot of showtimes for some of these upcoming movies? Idk that's just a theory lol 

[M37]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, my locals are definitely feeling the Nov 17 movie crunch or like FNAF, they are taking a wait and see approach to the Hunger Games prequel. 

It definitely the Thanksgiving crunch, as there are 6 wide releases in the same week because of holiday

 

Fri 11/17 = Hunger Games, Trolls, Thanksgiving

Wed 11/22 = Wish, Napoleon, Holdovers

Plus holding Marvels (which initial sales offerings are set for a $100M+ opening), and whatever limited run features will be included for each market/location. 

 

However, do think HGBS&S will potentially be the title to feel the squeeze the most: Trolls will get a couple of screens, Napoleon 1-2, TG and HO just one, and Wish likely gets a large allotment as theaters are prone to bet on (cater to) Disney ... leaving just a 2-3 screen allotment left, even if presales shows that may be on the lower end of what is needed

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

It definitely the Thanksgiving crunch, as there are 6 wide releases in the same week because of holiday

 

Fri 11/17 = Hunger Games, Trolls, Thanksgiving

Wed 11/22 = Wish, Napoleon, Holdovers

The Holdovers is going wide on the 10th, Saltburn and Dream Scenario are going wide on Thanksgiving weekend. Next Goal Wins is also opening wide on 11/17. Real battle for screen space.

[filmlover]

Also, tickets for The Color Purple are now on sale as well.