The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

40 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

what is the amc mystery movie screening

Any chance for it to be Marvels. Would be a good idea from Disney :-)

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	592	29762	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(1.487x) of Elemental $3.57M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

455 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

125 seats sold over 10 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	612	29762	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-19

 

(1.526x) of Elemental $3.66M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

151 seats sold over 10 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	308	31233	0.99%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-15

 

EA on Saturday = 387 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.692x) of Elemental $1.66M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.66M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	311	31233	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-14

 

EA on Saturday = 464 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.679x) of Elemental $1.63M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.63M

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
275	2589	55831	4.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

55

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.405x) of GOTG3 $7.09M Previews

(0.919x) of Flash $8.91M Previews

Comps AVG: $8.00M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
275	2657	55831	4.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

68

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.405x) of GOTG3 $7.09M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.09M

 

Absolutely no sign of life. Could be looking at ~$6M previews if thing don't somewhat improve 

[Hilts]

On 11/1/2023 at 9:47 PM, Hilts said:

 

Trolls Band Together							OK
Saturday - 2pm - Early Access Screenings						ATP	$10.03
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	11	11	7	138	1,953	7.07%	5.34%
T-6	11	11	43	181	1,953	9.27%	31.16%
T-5	11	11	25	206	1,953	10.55%	13.81%
T-4	11	11	31	237	1,953	12.14%	15.05%
T-3	11	11	58	295	1,953	15.10%	24.47%
MTC1	3	3	+34	119	604	19.70%	40.00%
MTC2	2	2	+9	46	239	19.25%	24.32%
MTC3	3	3	+13	100	634	15.77%	14.94%
Other	3	3	+2	30	476	6.30%	7.14%
Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$11.59
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-19	20	87	2	36	12,669	0.28%	5.88%
T-18	20	87	0	36	12,669	0.28%	0.00%
T-17	20	87	4	40	12,669	0.32%	11.11%
T-16	20	87	0	40	12,669	0.32%	0.00%
T-15	20	87	9	49	12,669	0.39%	22.50%
MTC1	7	25	+6	14	2,813	0.50%	75.00%
MTC2	4	27	0	9	4,460	0.20%	0.00%
MTC3	3	12	+3	14	2,536	0.55%	27.27%
Other	6	23	0	12	2,860	0.42%	0.00%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.563x	=	$1.75m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.551x	=	$2.12m

 

Matinee: 30.61%

3D: 12.24%

 

Trolls Band Together							OK
Saturday - 2pm - Early Access Screenings						ATP	$10.08
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	11	11	43	181	1,953	9.27%	31.16%
T-5	11	11	25	206	1,953	10.55%	13.81%
T-4	11	11	31	237	1,953	12.14%	15.05%
T-3	11	11	53	290	1,953	14.85%	22.36%
T-2	11	11	77	363	1,953	18.59%	25.17%
MTC1	3	3	+12	122	604	20.20%	10.91%
MTC2	2	2	+15	61	239	25.52%	32.61%
MTC3	3	3	+39	139	634	21.92%	39.00%
Other	3	3	+11	41	476	8.61%	36.67%
Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$11.65
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-18	20	87	0	36	12,669	0.28%	0.00%
T-17	20	87	4	40	12,669	0.32%	11.11%
T-16	20	87	0	40	12,669	0.32%	0.00%
T-15	20	87	9	49	12,669	0.39%	22.50%
T-14	20	87	4	53	12,669	0.42%	8.16%
MTC1	7	25	+4	18	2,813	0.64%	28.57%
MTC2	4	27	0	9	4,460	0.20%	0.00%
MTC3	3	12	0	14	2,536	0.55%	0.00%
Other	6	23	0	12	2,860	0.42%	0.00%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.602x	=	$1.87m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.495x	=	$1.91m

 

Matinee: 30.19%

3D: 11.32%

 

EA boomin. Would estimate ~$700k for early shows on top of the above based on some EA only comps.

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15 *First few hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
168	843	32190	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.683x) of RoTB $6.01M Previews

(1.650x) of Blue Beetle $5.44M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.73M

 

First few hours:

 

(0.902x) of FNAF $9.29M Previews

(1.947x) of Blue Beetle $6.42M Previews

(0.521x) of The Marvels ??? Previews

 

NOTE: Blue beetle has a similar presales window, so that's why i'm using it as a comp. The Little Mermaid is not a viable comp due to Disney

 

Not a bad start, but also not an explosive one. 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
168	1019	32190	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

176

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.710x) of Fast X $5.33M Previews

(1.930x) of Blue Beetle $6.37M Previews

(0.425x) of FNAF $4.38M Previews

(0.460x) of The Flash $4.47M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.14M

 

A very good day #2

[Hilts]

On 11/1/2023 at 10:42 PM, Hilts said:

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$15.39

 

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-15	19	81	248	248	15,547	1.60%

 

MTC1	8	28	+127	127	5,040	2.52%
MTC2	4	23	+45	45	3,655	1.23%
MTC3	3	20	+50	50	5,355	0.93%
Other	4	10	+26	26	1,497	1.74%

 

Day 1 Comps
Barbie					0.471x	=	$10.47m
Blue Beetle					3.263x	=	$10.77m
The Creator					4.960x	=	$7.94m
Five Nights At Freddy's					1.272x	=	$13.10m
The Marvels					0.961x

 

Matinee: 6.85%

PLF: 41.53%

 

As some already said show count is feeling the squeeze, I believe higher than FNAF started with but less than half of Marvels.

 

Unfortunately I don't have Day 1 for Oppenheimer. FNAF comp is starting quite high but the following days saw a smaller drop off so depending on how quickly THG settles down I would expect that to go down but let's see. Interesting that this is basically level with Marvels. If anything, I am pulling the numbers a little sooner than I normally would so comps may look slightly weaker than they actually are. Honestly I was expecting less so I would say this is pretty decent start but let's see how front-loaded it is or not. I would also point out compared to Marvels that PLF share is quite a bit lower at the moment which may bring the ATP down slightly.

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$15.22
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-15	19	81	248	248	15,547	1.60%	-
T-14	20	83	94	342	15,757	2.17%	37.90%

 

MTC1	8	28	+35	162	5,040	3.21%	27.56%
MTC2	4	23	+26	71	3,655	1.94%	57.78%
MTC3	3	20	+14	64	5,355	1.20%	28.00%
Other	5	12	+19	45	1,707	2.64%	73.08%
Day 2 Comps
Barbie					0.507x	=	$11.26m
Blue Beetle					4.275x	=	$14.11m
The Creator					6.218x	=	$9.95m
Five Nights At Freddy's					0.974x	=	$10.04m
The Marvels					1.043x

 

Matinee: 5.59%

3D: 0.59%

PLF: 35.00%

 

These are Day 2 Comps, I tried to switch to T-14 but this is outperforming anything I have tracked with shorter pre-sale windows by some margin and then comping to longer windows gives it an unfair uphill climb. I'll see what it looks like tomorrow.

 

Blue Beetle had very poor days after initial launch hence the high number there. But you can see already slipping to FNAF and already overtaken Marvels. So if I had to guess now I would say this will fall somewhere between the two once we reach the end. Does seem to be overperforming in my region though.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Hilts
Typo on Barbie comp

[Giorno]

3 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$15.22
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-15	19	81	248	248	15,547	1.60%	-
T-14	20	83	94	342	15,757	2.17%	37.90%

 

MTC1	8	28	+35	162	5,040	3.21%	27.56%
MTC2	4	23	+26	71	3,655	1.94%	57.78%
MTC3	3	20	+14	64	5,355	1.20%	28.00%
Other	5	12	+19	45	1,707	2.64%	73.08%
Day 2 Comps
Barbie					0.205x	=	$11.26m
Blue Beetle					4.275x	=	$14.11m
The Creator					6.218x	=	$9.95m
Five Nights At Freddy's					0.974x	=	$10.04m
The Marvels					1.043x

 

Matinee: 5.59%

3D: 0.59%

PLF: 35.00%

 

These are Day 2 Comps, I tried to switch to T-14 but this is outperforming anything I have tracked with shorter pre-sale windows by some margin and then comping to longer windows gives it an unfair uphill climb. I'll see what it looks like tomorrow.

 

Blue Beetle had very poor days after initial launch hence the high number there. But you can see already slipping to FNAF and already overtaken Marvels. So if I had to guess now I would say this will fall somewhere between the two once we reach the end. Does seem to be overperforming in my region though.

0.205x Barbie would be around 4.4m or so or was that just a accident with the %?

[Relevation]

32 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Absolutely no sign of life. Could be looking at ~$6M previews if thing don't somewhat improve 

Genuinely I don’t think that gets it over a $40M OW

 

[Arlborn]

8 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Genuinely I don’t think that gets it over a $40M OW

 

I’m starting to think the same myself. Unless this buckles the MCU frontloaded tradition, it really should be posting better numbers by now if it wants to get itself to at least a 7M preview and a 50M OW. 
 

I’m very curious about the OW weekend multi of this movie.

[keysersoze123]

On 10/30/2023 at 9:24 PM, keysersoze123 said:

The Wish MTC1

Early Shows(11/18) - 804/22061 8377.12 188 shows

Previews (11/21) - 4387/212577 66486.57 1306

 

Not much of a growth from last update. Its doing better than Trolls in previews but overall Trolls has sold more tickets(duh as early shows are 5 days later). I wonder how the BO will be between these 2 movies. I think Wish has the edge but they may not be that far off here.

The Wish MTC1

Early Shows(11/18) - 1254/22152 14477.12 188 shows

Previews (11/21) - 4801/212209 73574.29 1307 shows

 

Slow progress for now. 

[Boxofficerules]

Any word on when they'll drop the embargo for Thanksgiving?

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-15, D1, hr ~21, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 47

New sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 19

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Tickets per showtime analysis (tickets sold/showtimes= tickets per showtime)

Avg: 2.5

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 1/3= 0.3

Early Evening: 35/9=3.9

Late Evening: 11/7=1.6

 

By format:

Regular: 2/3=0.7

Dolby: 18/7=2.6

VIP: 21/3=7.0

IMAX: 6/4=1.5

4DX: 0/2=0

 

Trying something new. I don't think I'll have much in the way of comps. Will try this approach for this run if it offers any value.

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-14, D2, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 76

New sales: 29

Growth: 61.7%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 19

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable regional comps available

 

Tickets per showtime analysis (tickets sold/showtimes= tickets per showtime)

Avg: 4.0

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 3/3= 1.0

Early Evening: 58/9=6.4

Late Evening: 15/7=2.1

 

By format:

Regular: 4/3=1.3

Dolby: 29/7=4.1

VIP: 25/3=8.3

IMAX: 18/4=4.5

4DX: 0/2=0

 

Okay second day. Due to lack of data around this, I don't have much in comps. I was debating doing some single theatre comps, but at this low volume, it seems like its not too relevant. I may do so closer.

 

Even then, I don't have much, but thinking about what might be somewhat relevant of what I do have, does T:ROTB make sense. Similar target weekend. Similar in terms of franchise status, of a once dominant franchise aiming to do a reboot/prequel type of thing.

Edited November 2, 2023 by vafrow

[ViewerAnon]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Any chance for it to be Marvels. Would be a good idea from Disney :-)

 

If Disney was confident in building WOM that way they'd have done official early access screenings like with GOTG V3.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, ViewerAnon said:

 

If Disney was confident in building WOM that way they'd have done official early access screenings like with GOTG V3.

I am flabbergasted by why they are not doing it. They did it for Guardians since that had meh pace and they did what is needed to amp it up. Assume Marvels is not Guardians, its not going to be any worse than where things are. I dont see any point in this strategy. 

[ViewerAnon]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am flabbergasted by why they are not doing it. They did it for Guardians since that had meh pace and they did what is needed to amp it up. Assume Marvels is not Guardians, its not going to be any worse than where things are. I dont see any point in this strategy. 

 

I hope to be proven wrong - I like DaCosta - but I don't think Disney has all that much faith in THE MARVELS in terms of quality. They were confident in GUARDIANS 3 and knew/figured if they showed it early, the reaction would be very positive. They don't seem to feel the same way this time out.

I just posted it in the MARVELS thread as well but as far as I'm aware they still haven't screened the whole movie for critics yet, just half an hour or so for junket press this week. That isn't a sign of studio confidence.

[keysersoze123]

On 11/1/2023 at 4:33 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Trolls Band Together Early Shows(11/4)

MTC1 - 8382/46657 88818.70 272 shows

MTC2 - 7462/34384 88788.70 228 shows

 

 

Really good pace(> 1K per day) at both MTC. Thinking it can triple this number at MTC1 and may be 250% growth at MTC2. I am thinking between 750K-1m range for early shows. 

Trolls Band Together Early Shows(11/4)

MTC1 -10369/46657 109777.43 +1987

MTC2 - 9844/34645 116084.75 228 shows +2382

 

Really good day again.  

[keysersoze123]

I forgot to post this. But this is of really early morning today.

 

Hunger Games  Blah Blah MTC1 Previews - 15608/337234 308432.18 1793 shows

 

Its ok but nothing great. Let us see how it holds after day or 2. At least reviews will be out in a week's time. Hopefully it ramps up to a good final number. For now I am not feeling 50m OW for now. 

[M37]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

(0.710x) of Fast X $5.33M Previews

(1.930x) of Blue Beetle $6.37M Previews

(0.425x) of FNAF $4.38M Previews

(0.460x) of The Flash $4.47M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.14M

 

Just confirming, these are T-14 comps, not Day 2, correct? If so, would think those values - except maybe Blue Beetle - are more representative of the floor given the much shorter sales window

 

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Hunger Games  Blah Blah

 

We'll see how next couple of days go, but for now count me in the HG:BoSS over Marvels camp (at least for Thursday previews, OWs may be fairly close)

[cooldude97]

Looks like Godzilla Minus One Tickets Are Already on Sale in some places, tickets fully go on sale in 6 hours