The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 11/13/2023 at 6:48 PM, vafrow said:

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-3, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 323

New sales: 30

Growth: 10.2%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 21

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.566x of Marvels for $3.7M

0.365x of FNAF for $3.8M

Avg: $3.7M

 

Single theatre comps

0.609x T:ROTB for $5.4M

1.400x IJ:DoD for $10.1M

Avg: $7.7M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis 

Avg: 15.4

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 4.3

Early Evening: 26.4

Late Evening: 8.5

 

By format:

Regular: 5.0

Dolby: 21.3

VIP: 18.0

IMAX: 13.3

4DX: 8.0

 

Came back down after a good day yesterday. It stayed pace with Marvels, when it needs to be gaining.

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-2, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 365

New sales: 42

Growth: 13.0%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 21

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.574x of Marvels for $3.7M

0.347x of FNAF for $3.5M

Avg: $3.6M

 

Single theatre comps

0.615x T:ROTB for $5.4M

1.333x IJ:DoD for $9.6M

Avg: $7.5M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis 

Avg: 17.4

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 7.8

Early Evening: 28.1

Late Evening: 10.1

 

By format:

Regular: 5.0

Dolby: 24.1

VIP: 20.6

IMAX: 15.5

4DX: 8.0

 

Another fairly mediocre day. 

 

Interestingly, the matinees saw big movement. Not sure what's driving that.

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/13/2023 at 5:20 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	67	191	1244	12719	9.78

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		787	121	63.26
MTC1:		719	91	57.8
Marcus:		202	35	16.24
Alamo:		102	9	8.2
Other chains:		221	56	17.77

 

Comps:

0.8x The Marvels: $5.3 Million

0.63x FNAF: $6.53 Million

0.24x Barbie (just Thursday): $5.13 Million

 

Average: $5.65 Million

 

Meh day, finally starting to drop against Barbie.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	93	204	1448	15422	9.39

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		900	113	62.15
MTC1:		823	104	56.84
Marcus:		238	36	16.44
Alamo:		108	6	7.46
Other chains:		279	58	19.27

 

Comps:

0.8x The Marvels: $5.3 Million

0.63x FNAF: $6.53 Million

0.23x Barbie (just Thursday): $4.96 Million

 

Average: $5.6 Million

 

Despite me posting these later than usual, I ironically did my counts today a tad earlier than usual, so it might self-correct a bit tomorrow. It held against FNAF and Marvels and dropped against Barbie, but I'm hoping it'll rise against the former two tomorrow

[YM!]

41 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I found the tracking of the final days for Elemental : with the 30% of Discount Tuesday to take into account

 Previews(T-4) - 11317/301405 177836.43 2151 shows

Elemental MTC1 Previews(T-3) - 13652/312865 211666.02 2263 shows +2335
Elemental MTC1 Previews(T-2) - 16851/337737 258446.67 2496 shows +3199
Elemental MTC1 Previews(T-1) - 21913/340828 329714.67 2519 shows +5062
Elemental MTC1 Previews Final - 45367/341483 661617.29 2521 shows

Friday (T-4) - 14317/482882 207658.53 3292 shows
Elemental Friday ( T-2) 24861/590735 353506.47 4234 shows // +6376

 

Clearly to surpass Elemental ( 2,4M) , Wish should make 65K , to make 2M , it should make around 53K-54K , also i forget that Wish had Early Access contrary to Elemental so i think and i hope we will have big jump Monday/Tuesday

Not sure if Wish could make the rounds it need to by Thursday evening to catch up to Elemental or go too much over it. That’s a hefty jump and it added about 1500 tickets these past four days in that chain.

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/13/2023 at 5:30 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Trolls: Band Together (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	76	27	155	9548	1.62

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		13	3	8.39
MTC1:		40	7	25.81
Marcus:		36	0	23.23
Alamo:		8	0	5.16
Other chains:		71	20	45.81

 

Comps:

0.64x Haunted Mansion (THU*): $1.91 Million

Paw Patrol 2 (FRI): Missed

4.27x Ruby Gillman: $3.1 Million

*Ballparking the EA at $100k, it was limited and never reported, so the preview number used here is $3 Million

 

Thanksgiving (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	21	9	103	2057	5.01

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		54	2	52.43
Marcus:		1	0	0.97
Alamo:		29	1	28.16
Other chains:		19	6	18.45

 

Comps:

The Exorcist: Believer: Missed

0.59x Saw X: $1.18 Million

0.73x Nun II: $2.26 Million

1.49x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.12 Million

0.77x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $957k (I totally forgot this had EA, last update did not have this, so while it still dropped, not nearly as starkly as it seems)

0.54x Insidious Red Door: $2.71 Million

 

Average: $1.64 Million

 

Thinking this market just got out ahead of others and it's correcting now, I was surprised at how weak the numbers were in Oklahoma and Orlando

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Trolls: Band Together (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	97	43	198	11638	1.7

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		19	6	9.6
MTC1:		49	9	24.75
Marcus:		48	12	24.24
Alamo:		10	2	5.05
Other chains:		91	20	45.96

 

Comps:

0.7x Haunted Mansion (THU*): $2.11 Million

Paw Patrol 2 (FRI): Missed

3.89x Ruby Gillman: $2.82 Million

*Ballparking the EA at $100k, it was limited and never reported, so the preview number used here is $3 Million

 

Thanksgiving (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	31	40	143	2705	5.29

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		72	18	50.35
Marcus:		13	12	9.09
Alamo:		31	2	21.68
Other chains:		27	8	18.88

 

Comps:

0.52x The Exorcist: Believer: $1.49 Million

0.58x Saw X: $1.17 Million

0.67x Nun II: $2.08 Million

1.38x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.04 Million

0.79x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $990k

0.48x Insidious Red Door: $2.41 Million

 

Average: $1.53 Million

 

Dropped against all but one comp (Talk to Me), feels like it'll converge in the 1-1.25 Million range.

Edited November 15, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[Flip]

2 hours ago, Cookson said:

Possible for Minus One to actually get to 20m here? That would be a huge success for Toho honestly. 

would be much higher if it had closer to 3000 theaters instead of 1500

[keysersoze123]

20 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Trolls Band Together MTC1

Previews - 6215/323717 88443.95 2157 shows +954

Friday - 13945/444159 199792.03 2850 shows +3527

 

Really bad increase for previews but Friday is "good".  

Trolls Band Together MTC1

Previews - 7590/363857 108049.80 2524 shows +1375

Friday - 18989/583642 271189.39 3923 shows +5044

 

Previews are not looking that good. Its all about weekend walkups. No change in my predictions. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/10/2023 at 5:30 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-8	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 18 theaters	67	24	141	8794	1.6
Saturday Nov 18 EA: 9 theaters	9	23	82	1100	7.45
TOTALS:	76	47	223	9894	2.25

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		118	23	52.91
Marcus:		51	11	22.87
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		54	13	24.22

 

Tuesday Comps:

1.27x Haunted Mansion (THU): $3.81 Million

0.6x Paw Patrol (FRI): $4.1 Million

0.85x TMNT (TUE): $3.27 Million

2.82x Trolls: Band Together: ??? (using average comp value from my latest update- $4.43 Million)

 

Average (not including Trolls): $3.73 Million

 

EA Comp:

0.68x TMNT Saturday EA: ~565k*

0.37x Trolls: Band Together Saturday EA: ???

 

*Operating under the assumption that TMNT's Saturday EA is ~825k, half of the reported EA gross for both days

 

Napoleon (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	37	72	149	6332	2.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		107	57	71.81
MTC1:		81	44	54.36
Marcus:		36	14	24.16
Alamo:		19	10	12.75
Other chains:		13	4	8.72

 

Comps:

0.39x KOFM: $1.01 Million

0.97x The Creator (just THU): $1.31 Million

0.1x Oppy: $1.04 Million

0.22x MI7 (just TUE): $1.54 Million

 

Average: $1.23 Million

 

Growing 50% in this past week is encouraging and all of these comps had longer windows, so they're imperfect, but for now this isn't looking great.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 18 theaters	79	52	193	9787	1.97
Saturday Nov 18 EA: 9 theaters	9	87	169	1100	15.36
TOTALS:	88	139	362	10887	3.33

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		180	62	49.72
Marcus:		73	22	20.17
Alamo:		3	3	0.83
Other chains:		106	52	29.28

 

Tuesday Comps:

1.27x Haunted Mansion (THU): $3.81 Million

0.39x Paw Patrol (FRI): $2.67 Million

0.89x TMNT (TUE): $3.44 Million

2.1x Trolls: Band Together: ???

 

Average (not including Trolls): $3.31 Million

 

EA Comp:

0.98x TMNT Saturday EA: ~800k*

0.28x Trolls: Band Together Saturday EA: ???

*Operating under the assumption that TMNT's Saturday EA is ~825k, half of the reported EA gross for both days

 

Napoleon (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	47	123	272	7380	3.69

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		176	69	64.71
MTC1:		136	55	50
Marcus:		65	29	23.9
Alamo:		37	18	13.6
Other chains:		34	21	12.5

 

Comps:

0.51x KOFM: $1.32 Million

1.54x The Creator (just THU): $2.07 Million

0.13x Oppy: $1.35 Million

0.3x MI7 (just TUE): $2.12 Million

 

Average: $1.715 Million

 

Great growth!

 

[MovieMan89]

Minus One may be looking to be the most acclaimed Godzilla film ever in the west. Hope it does something 

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 50789/413130 942173.67 2227 shows +6314

Friday - 54790/584307 980808.80 3165 shows +8659

 

This is as of yesterday night. I would say its very good day without any catalyst. This will have better saturday increase and Sunday Drop(next week Monday is like a Summer weekday) as well. Definitely over 50m OW. 

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 57009/458541 1048685.19 2573 shows +6220

Friday - 64891/699951 1148092.57 3947 shows +10101

 

That is not good. I guess @TwoMisfits was right about Atom deal bumping up the sales. Let me chew on this and predict its OW tomorrow. 

 

 

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Trolls Band Together MTC1

Previews - 7590/363857 108049.80 2524 shows +1375

Friday - 18989/583642 271189.39 3923 shows +5044

 

Previews are not looking that good. Its all about weekend walkups. No change in my predictions. 

How does MTC2 look? I know that’s usually more family friendly in general, but this film in particular might skew more than usual 

[Mojoguy]

Will Napoleon and Wish become a meme like Barbenheimer or did that never start?

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Will Napoleon and Wish become a meme like Barbenheimer or did that never start?

Never started.

 

There will never be another Barbenheimer. And if there is, it'll be entirely unexpected.

[Flip]

3 hours ago, Relevation said:

Does anyone have tracking numbers for The Boy and the Heron? Really curious to see if Miyazaki’s domestic audience has expanded enough for a double digit debut

it's taking long for showtimes to pop up, but the ones that have are selling well, the only problem there is so few. having 2 days of EA will help, but the real question is of how many theaters it can release in. If it's at least 3k I'd say it's easily guaranteed, based on what Suzume did earlier this year.

[filmlover]

In further movie discussion, with The Fall Guy now gone from March, this is what the month looks like now:

 

3/1: ...nothing

3/8: Kung Fu Panda 4 (uh, maybe), Imaginary

3/15: Dune 2

3/22: some Mark Wahlberg/Simu Liu movie from Lionsgate

3/29: Ghostbusters, Mickey 17 (unlikely)

 

Oof. And April doesn't look much better either. Godzilla x Kong and Challengers are currently the most high-profile movies set to release that month.

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 57009/458541 1048685.19 2573 shows +6220

Friday - 64891/699951 1148092.57 3947 shows +10101

 

That is not good. I guess @TwoMisfits was right about Atom deal bumping up the sales. Let me chew on this and predict its OW tomorrow. 

 

 

So American did become poorer and poorer. 

[Porthos]

On 11/14/2023 at 1:54 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-3]

1308/15290 (8.55% sold) [+185 tickets] [115 showings]

 

1.11130x GBA at T-3                  [5.65m] [ADJUSTED FOR ATP HIKES]
0.66161x FB3 at T-3                  [3.97m]
0.60221x BA at T-3                   [4.58m]
0.36980x TLM at T-3                [3.81m]
0.29334x AtSV at T-3               [5.09m]
0.66127x RotB at T-3                [5.82m]
0.35390x FNAF at T-3              [3.65m]
0.64338x The Marvels at T-3  [4.25m]

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-2]

1573/17186 (9.15% sold) [+265 tickets] [136 showings]

 

1.04172x GBA at T-2                  [5.30m] [ADJUSTED FOR ATP HIKES]
0.65678x FB3 at T-2                 [3.94m]
0.61230x BA at T-2                   [4.65m]
0.39602x TLM at T-2                [4.08m]
0.29113x AtSV at T-2                [5.05m]
0.62870x RotB at T-2               [5.53m]
0.37275x FNAF at T-2              [3.84m]
0.65899x The Marvels at T-2  [4.35m]

 

====

 

Been having internet troubles; T-7 Wish report will be up sometime tomorrow. I have most of the data, but not in a form ready for posting.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Porthos

[M37]

On 11/13/2023 at 7:37 AM, M37 said:

Hunger Games: BoSS Preview Tracking T-4 Update

 

We'll see what final days bring, but for now all averages are around ~$5.5M, but most trending up, so room to go higher. Still holding mostly steady against Barbie as well

 

Friday sales also look solid, better than Marvels without the holiday boost, so it should do better than the ~7x we're going to finish at there. Here's a quick FM, but with fewer data points, less certainty on the bounds and midpoints than usual. Looks like probably $40M+ to me, with potential to top Marvels and even make a run at $50M

 

HG:BoSS OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$4.8	$5.0	$5.3	$5.5	$5.8	$6.0	$6.3	$6.5	$6.8
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.50	$30.9	$32.5	$34.1	$35.8	$37.4	$39.0	$40.6	$42.3	$43.9
	6.75	$32.1	$33.8	$35.4	$37.1	$38.8	$40.5	$42.2	$43.9	$45.6
	7.00	$33.3	$35.0	$36.8	$38.5	$40.3	$42.0	$43.8	$45.5	$47.3
	7.25	$34.4	$36.3	$38.1	$39.9	$41.7	$43.5	$45.3	$47.1	$48.9
	7.50	$35.6	$37.5	$39.4	$41.3	$43.1	$45.0	$46.9	$48.8	$50.6
	7.75	$36.8	$38.8	$40.7	$42.6	$44.6	$46.5	$48.4	$50.4	$52.3
	8.00	$38.0	$40.0	$42.0	$44.0	$46.0	$48.0	$50.0	$52.0	$54.0
	8.25	$39.2	$41.3	$43.3	$45.4	$47.4	$49.5	$51.6	$53.6	$55.7
	8.50	$40.4	$42.5	$44.6	$46.8	$48.9	$51.0	$53.1	$55.3	$57.4

 

 

Hunger Games: BoSS Preview Tracking T-2 Update

 

I know others are suggesting higher, but to me continues to looks like $5.5-$6M Thursday

 

 

Friday sales remain strong, at 95% of Marvels at this same T-2 checkpoint for MTC1, which led to a $15M TFri (with a holiday bump), and though there is no data beyond that day, puts an 8x or more IM in play with reasonable Sat/Sun daily changes.  Most likely $40-$50M for OW, could wind up very close to where Marvels landed ($46.1M)

 

Starting to get the sense overall that 40 is the new 60.  Where in summer we had 5 consecutive weeks of $55M+ openers, with Fast X, Transformers and Flash have OWs of $67M, $61M, $55M, now Marvels, HG: BoSS and Wish could give us consecutive $40M OWs. Only there is no $100M OW for Mermaid or ATSV in that run

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-2

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 25

Seats sold - 686

Total seats - 4428

New sales - 103 (+16.2%)

 

Comp 

 

0.979x The Marvels T-2 = $6.46m

 

Friday T-3

 

Show count - 38

Seats sold - 783

New sales - 148 (+23.3%)

 

Comp 

 

1.03x The Marvels T-3 = $15.5m

---

 

Growth looks great vs. Marvels but Marvels underperformed here. Still thinking 5.5-6m previews overall. 

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-1

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 25

Seats sold - 760

Total seats - 4428

New sales - 74 (+10.8%)

 

Comp 

 

0.96x The Marvels T-1 = $6.31m

---

 

Friday shows expanded a bunch like they did for Marvels last week. Grew a bit worse than yesterday. 

[Relevation]

THANKSGIVING reviews are red hot right now (91% RT)

 

Wonder if we see a kind of big surge today ala M3GAN

[TwoMisfits]

Since this is buzz and tracking...

 

The reason I'm high on Garfield and Inside Out 2 next year (and have declared 2024 the animated year) is that my youngest boy (tween) and my youngest girl (older teen) both came to me and asked if I'd seen all the new movie trailer releases in the last 2 weeks.  I asked which ones they meant, and both responded (in a highly favorable way) to Garfield and Inside Out 2, and wanted me to watch both.

 

So, since my kids are on the pulse of the internet, I think the buzz in that 25 and under crowd is hitting hard for those 2 products.  And since I already expect both to benefit in the 25+ crowd from nostalgia, both could do very, very well.

 

YMMV, but this is the news from my kid movie whisperers...

 

PS - No movie got huge sets at my Cinemarks for this weekend, so nothing should be much higher than The Marvels OW total last weekend (and I expect all the openers to actually probably end up lower, although Hunger Games has the best chance at barely getting over).  See, I can bring this back to current presales, too:)...

Edited November 15, 2023 by TwoMisfits