The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[YachtyLogs]

On 11/23/2023 at 1:17 PM, YachtyLogs said:

MIGRATION

T-28

 

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

0/1453 - (0%)

 

New sold: 0

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 15

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

Maybe the parade bump will help tomorrow but for now, Lol. 

MIGRATION

T-27

 

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

0/1453 - (0%)

 

New sold: 0

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 15

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

No new sales today but thats nothing new for this movie. I'm really surprised not a single ticket has sold thus far honestly. 

[Arlborn]

4 hours ago, Bob Train said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-and-migration/

 

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
12/1/2023	Godzilla Minus One	$5,000,000 – $9,000,000		$9,000,000 – $18,000,000		Toho International
12/1/2023	Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé	$27,000,000 – $36,000,000		$40,000,000 – $80,000,000		AMC Theatres Distribution
12/1/2023	The Shift	$3,000,000 – $7,000,000		$6,000,000 – $21,000,000		Angel Studios
12/1/2023	Silent Night	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000		$10,000,000 – $27,000,000		Lionsgate
12/8/2023	The Boy and the Heron					GKIDS
12/8/2023	Eileen (Wide Expansion; Platform Dec. 1)					NEON
12/8/2023	Poor Things (Limited)					Disney / Searchlight Pictures
12/15/2023	American Fiction (Limited)					MGM / MRC
12/15/2023	Concrete Utopia (Wide Expansion; NY+LA on Dec. 😎					Lotte Entertainment
12/15/2023	Wonka	$25,000,000 – $35,000,000		$125,000,000 – $210,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
12/22/2023	All of Us Strangers (Limited)					Disney / Searchlight Pictures
12/22/2023	American Fiction (Expansion)					MGM / MRC
12/22/2023	Anyone But You					Sony / Columbia Pictures
12/22/2023	Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom	$32,000,000 – $42,000,000		$105,000,000 – $168,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
12/22/2023	The Iron Claw					A24
12/22/2023	Migration	$25,000,000 – $30,000,000		$140,000,000 – $250,000,000		Universal Pictures / Illumination

That's quite a range for Migration. 250M? That'd be great.

[misterpepp]

Tickets for Unsung Hero's April 24 early access shows are now on sale at select chains. Waiting on general tix date.

[MovieMan89]

I mean never count out illumination I guess, but 250 for migration would be way more shocking than if Wonka does 400+. Especially since - very  uncharacteristically for them - seem to have forgotten about marketing for Migration. 

[HummingLemon496]

56 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

That's quite a range for Migration. 250M? That'd be great.

It might go all the way to 300

Edited November 24, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Porthos]

37 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

Tickets for Unsung Hero's April 24 early access shows are now on sale at select chains. Waiting on general tix date.

 

 

(and folks thought I was kidding when I mentioned at the start of Fast X's pre-sales that some special event/Fathom/indie films can have absurdly long pre-sale windows that would put even Fast X's pre-sale window to shame)

Edited November 24, 2023 by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
148	306	30792	0.99%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.467x) of Exorcist $1.33M Previews

(0.675x) of The Creator $912k Previews

Comps AVG: $1.12M

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

650 seats sold over 20 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
148	311	30792	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.458x) of Exorcist $1.31M Previews

(0.666x) of The Creator $899k Previews

Comps AVG: $1.10M

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

650 seats sold over 20 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-28

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	177	32850	0.54%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-28

 

(0.889x) of Trolls 3 $1.16M Previews

(0.516x) of Elemental $1.24M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.20M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	192	32850	0.58%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-27

 

(0.970x) of Trolls 3 $1.26M Previews

(0.550x) of Elemental $1.32M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.29M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
195	739	36197	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(0.427x) of Indy 5 $3.07M Previews

(0.369x) of TLM $3.80M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.43M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
195	758	36197	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(0.429x) of Indy 5 $3.09M Previews

(0.373x) of TLM $3.84M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.47M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-28

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	667	38536	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

42

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-28

 

(0.360x) of The Marvels $2.38M Previews

(0.425x) of Indy 5 $3.06M Previews

(0.170x) of GOTG 3 $2.98M Previews

Comps AVG: $2.81M

 

No Blue Beetle comp or Flash comp until T-22. Using Indy 5 and Guardians temporarily  

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	692	38536	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-27

 

(0.366x) of The Marvels $2.41M Previews

(0.436x) of Indy 5 $3.14M Previews

(0.173x) of GOTG 3 $3.02M Previews

Comps AVG: $2.86M

 

No Blue Beetle comp or Flash comp until T-22. Using Indy 5 and Guardians temporarily  

 

Well, it could be worse...It's still increasing against comps 

[TheFlatLannister]

BTW, if I had to guess Blue Beetle comp will spit out ~$6M once i add it 

 

Flash should be around ~$4.5M

Edited November 25, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[HummingLemon496]

$2.39M --> $2.72M --> $2.86M --> $2.89M

 

Consistent upward trend. 

 

 

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

(and folks thought I was kidding when I mentioned at the start of Fast X's pre-sales that some special event/Fathom/indie films can have absurdly long pre-sale windows that would put even Fast X's pre-sale window to shame)

 

To add to this, it's a Lionsgate title that is faith-based, and those tend to have tremendously long pre-sale windows to build up church group sales.

[joselowe]

Anyone have any early opening weekend predictions for The Color Purple? Or is it too early to predict?

[Flip]

47 minutes ago, joselowe said:

Anyone have any early opening weekend predictions for The Color Purple? Or is it too early to predict?

Can’t really predict opening weekend since it’s releasing on a monday

[JonathanMB]

‘Wonka’ Sweet In Short-Lead Tracking With $35M-$40M Pre-Christmas Opening – Box Office Update [DEADLINE]

 

Saw that Deadline updated this tracking article from a few weeks ago earlier today, but didn't tweet out the update for whatever reason.

 

Quote

 

UPDATED EXCLUSIVE: Warner Bros‘ feature musical Wonka arrived on three-week-out tracking this week with a revised industry projection of $35M-$40M when it opens on Dec. 15.

 

That start is in the vicinity of Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle ($36.2M) which opened before Christmas on Dec. 20. While going pre-Christmas is always risky for any movie, family branded pics are quite safe and remain a powerful distraction for families who are still in the throes of shopping.

 

The Timothée Chalamet movie is great with women right now, under and over 25. Unaided awareness is 22-23 with women which is the category by which respondents cite a movie’s name to pollster’s without being prodded (it’s evidence that a movie’s promo machine is working on a title). Those numbers are a point above the unaided awareness for females on Illumination/Universal’s Super Mario Bros Movie. In first choice at 12 for women under 25, and 15 for women over 25, Wonka is more than double in each category ahead of the first choice for Trolls Band Together ($30M) and Mary Poppins Returns ($23.5M 3-day, 5-day $32.3M).

 

 

[VanillaSkies]

What are thoughts on Beyoncé ATP for next weekend. I find it interesting that child and senior tickets for regular shows are $22, same as general admission. IMAX and Dolby are up to $30/$32 per ticket in some regions. AND no matinee pricing. 
With an ATP of around $24 or so, it would only need 2 million people in North America to go see it to hit 48 million weekend. Is that a tall ask, or can she pull it out? The tour itself did quite well in North America, so anything is possible I guess.

[Jake4]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

What are thoughts on Beyoncé ATP for next weekend. I find it interesting that child and senior tickets for regular shows are $22, same as general admission. IMAX and Dolby are up to $30/$32 per ticket in some regions. AND no matinee pricing. 
With an ATP of around $24 or so, it would only need 2 million people in North America to go see it to hit 48 million weekend. Is that a tall ask, or can she pull it out? The tour itself did quite well in North America, so anything is possible I guess.

Most likely not, but i think its also partly because this isn't a copy and paste pure concert like eras tour was. It has a substantial documentary element to it (which make it more interesting imo) but might not be appealing to those that did not get to go and want to see the full concert. 

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

What are thoughts on Beyoncé ATP for next weekend. I find it interesting that child and senior tickets for regular shows are $22, same as general admission. IMAX and Dolby are up to $30/$32 per ticket in some regions. AND no matinee pricing. 
With an ATP of around $24 or so, it would only need 2 million people in North America to go see it to hit 48 million weekend. Is that a tall ask, or can she pull it out? The tour itself did quite well in North America, so anything is possible I guess.

There is no discount whatsever. Not even for kids tickets or anything. so I am expecting record ATP for sure. Of course demand levels are no where near Eras. Still its starting at a lower base and I am expecting better finish than Eras at least on a % basis enough to take it to mid to high 20s OW. 

 

So far the release itself is way smaller than Eras as well. 

[Taylor89]

3 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

What are thoughts on Beyoncé ATP for next weekend. I find it interesting that child and senior tickets for regular shows are $22, same as general admission. IMAX and Dolby are up to $30/$32 per ticket in some regions. AND no matinee pricing. 
With an ATP of around $24 or so, it would only need 2 million people in North America to go see it to hit 48 million weekend. Is that a tall ask, or can she pull it out? The tour itself did quite well in North America, so anything is possible I guess.

 

 

1.8m people attended her tour in US and it did very well but don't think those people would go watch the movie in theaters..so no. lol. she can't.