The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[M37]

Put me down for a sub-5x for Godzilla (maybe closer to 4x?); should play very fan(boy) heavy, similar to an anime release, and with the extra day of EA shows - which appear to have sold more than the full Thursday preview - that's likely to siphon off business from the weekend and drag the IM down even lower. That the film is subtitled is going to be a limiting factor in expanding the audience pool even if WOM is very good

 

One Piece Film Red for example, had a $9.8M OW off a $1.7M preview in November of last year

[Brainbug]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Put me down for a sub-5x for Godzilla (maybe closer to 4x?); should play very fan(boy) heavy, similar to an anime release, and with the extra day of EA shows - which appear to have sold more than the full Thursday preview - that's likely to siphon off business from the weekend and drag the IM down even lower. That the film is subtitled is going to be a limiting factor in expanding the audience pool even if WOM is very good

 

One Piece Film Red for example, had a $9.8M OW off a $1.7M preview in November of last year

 

Do you have to be a downer? ☹️

[Joyous Legion]

Don’t worry bug, Godzilla 250x IM  

[M37]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Do you have to be a downer? ☹️

As always, just trying to keep expectations in check (and I could be wrong!) 

 

On the flip side, the market has been fairly barren for a solid action flick (save Marvels and all that baggage) since September, so there is room to surprise. But IMO, getting to double digits would qualify as an above average result given the likely fan & preview heavy nature of such a release 

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

NEW OPENER PREVIEW RESULTS (per Deadline):

 

- Renaissance $5 M

- Godzilla $2.1 M (EA + Thurs)

- Silent Night $250k

 

From Deadline:

 

AMC Entertainment’s second concert film theatrical release, Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce, fired up last night with $5M previews from showtimes that began at 7PM...Given Beyonce’s pull on older audiences, particularly woman (those over 25 showed up at 53%), an opening in the vicinity of $15M-$20M is expected, and indeed, last night’s ticket sales are considered to be frontloaded...

 

Toho International’s first self-distributed U.S. theatrical release, Godzilla Minus One (for those keeping tabs, Crunchy Roll previously released Toho movies), earned $2.1M Wednesday and Thursday previews. The Japanese reboot is expected to make in the high single digits-$10M+ for the weekend.

 

Lionsgate has John Woo’s first U.S. theatrical release in 20 years, Silent Night, which did $250K in previews last night. The movie is expected to file in the low single digits this weekend.

 

Link to the Deadline post

[Shawn Robbins]

I know someone will ask, but no, the studio isn't breaking out Godzilla's EA from Thursday yet.

[keysersoze123]

That is not bad for Renaissance. MTC1 did not crazy over index like what I thought. 

 

Godzilla was just under my low end. I guess early shows did over index even more at MTC1. 

[Cookson]

4 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I know someone will ask, but no, the studio isn't breaking out Godzilla's EA from Thursday yet.

Wait so this 2.1 number doesn’t include EA numbers? 

[Giorno]

2 minutes ago, Cookson said:

Wait so this 2.1 number doesn’t include EA numbers? 

it does, the studios just haven't given out the exact EA and Thursday numbers like is it 1.1 for EA and 1 for PV or whatever

[Cookson]

Just now, Giorno said:

it does, the studios just haven't given out the exact EA and Thursday numbers like is it 1.1 for EA and 1 for PV or whatever

Oops I see now. Thanks! 

[Issac Newton]

I wonder how it's tracking.

[Flip]

6 hours ago, JimmyB said:

Do social media reactions move the needle anymore? The over the top positive reactions read like The Onion and the average moviegoer has been burned so many times by over the top positive reactions and the movie is meh or just bad. 

I think they’re helpful in that they remind people about a movie, get it trending which definitely boosts sales

[Flip]

49 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

I wonder how it's tracking.

Less than Suzume, would’ve hoped for more but there’s just a ton of movies clogging up screens

[SchumacherFTW]

10 minutes ago, Flip said:

Less than Suzume, would’ve hoped for more but there’s just a ton of movies clogging up screens

Crunchyroll is a part of Sony, so much bigger distribution resources

[Porthos]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ

 

Less tickets sold on T-0 vs T-1...Not a great sign I would say. Feels like i'm shooting in the dark with this one so I'll go with $4.5M-$5M 

 

3 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

NEW OPENER PREVIEW RESULTS (per Deadline):

 

AMC Entertainment’s second concert film theatrical release, Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce, fired up last night with $5M previews from showtimes that began at 7PM...Given Beyonce’s pull on older audiences, particularly woman (those over 25 showed up at 53%), an opening in the vicinity of $15M-$20M is expected, and indeed, last night’s ticket sales are considered to be frontloaded...

 

 

(as for me?  Lack of AMC screwed me, as I expected it to.  Also probably undershot the ATP difference between it and TET, but frankly was never gonna really come that particularly close with no AMCs to boost the totals)

[rehpyc]

MTC1 will always need to particularly be the rule for these events, always heavily weighted in share. Other MTCs just largely come way under the norm.

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

(as for me?  Lack of AMC screwed me, as I expected it to.  Also probably undershot the ATP difference between it and TET, but frankly was never gonna really come that particularly close with no AMCs to boost the totals)

For me, I think the demographics of the twin cities had a big impact as well. Kinda goes back to a point that @M37 made a while back, I think we have a bit of a blind spot right now with movies that will overindex with people of color, particularly Black audiences, as was the case with this one

[MysteryMovieMogul]

5 hours ago, Shawn said:

I know someone will ask, but no, the studio isn't breaking out Godzilla's EA from Thursday yet.

That feels like an unofficial way of saying Wednesday made more than Thursday. But I could be wrong.

[rehpyc]

9 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

That feels like an unofficial way of saying Wednesday made more than Thursday. But I could be wrong.

At one MTC, yes. Not by much, but yes.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

That feels like an unofficial way of saying Wednesday made more than Thursday. But I could be wrong.

That is a lock based on MTC1 data. it did slightly more than twice thursday on wednesday. Of course it played wider on thursday and so MTC ratio was way lower. I am thinking 1.3/.8 split.