The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Danhjpn]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Boy and the heron MTC1

Monday Imax Final - 18777/45227 360088.07 144 shows

Wed early shows - 6373/12448 97203.13 77 shows

Previews - 8928/141549 146286.14 984 shows

Friday -  15225/272125 243598.85 1773 shows

 

Monday walkups was just ok. I am not expect wednesday to move the needle that much but its playing wider at other MTCs which do not have IMAX. Already friday sales relative to thursday shows there is potential for good OW. I think 3m+ true friday should happen. 

The number for true Friday is currently +70% from Thursday preview.... is it normal for movie to jump much from Thursday preview into true Friday? 

[cannastop]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Soul is Docter's movie. So I think that has the best potential though releasing after the movies being available on D+ is a different ball game. May be disney should pull those movies off the platform for next 3-4 months while the movie is being released 🙂

yeah but they're not doing that

[keysersoze123]

19 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

The number for true Friday is currently +70% from Thursday preview.... is it normal for movie to jump much from Thursday preview into true Friday? 

its expected for kids movies especially off summer or holidays. it will do better over the weekend than during weekdays. 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/4/2023 at 6:59 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews - 16450/468856 300440.40 2215 shows

Friday - 13571/725352 234677.03 3379 shows

 

its chugging along and its preview to friday presales is considerably better than say SH movies as well. I expect it to have good IM. It should start to accelerate this week.  

Wonka MTC1

Previews -18438/471830 336014.68 2241 shows

Friday - 15895/725701 274741.53 3383 shows 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/4/2023 at 7:00 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews - 17604/506813 349577.30 2593 shows

Friday - 9891/724239 185096.33 3733 shows

 

It should beat Shazam and Blue Beetle in previews fairly easily.  

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews - 18818/506505 372929.20 2593 shows

Friday - 10776/721175 201675.28 3725 shows

 

 

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews -18438/471830 336014.68 2241 shows

Friday - 15895/725701 274741.53 3383 shows 

Is this a notable grow? Or positive review still means nothing?

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Wonka, T-10, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 36

New Sales since last update: 10

Growth: 36%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 2/4

Early Evening: 27/8

Late Evening: 7/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 14/6

VIP: 10/4

IMAX: 12/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.243x of HG:BoSS for $1.4M

 

Two interesting developments. One, it was a good sales day, likely driven by the review embargo dropping. Sales all came from small groups of 2-3 tickets and spread pretty evenly throughout.

 

The other development is the dropping of a late show. That's the theatre closest to me dropping the late show, which means they're not going to keep the theatre open late on weeknights, which indicates just how pessimistic they are.

 

Wonka, T-9, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 44

New Sales since last update: 8

Growth: 22%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 2/4

Early Evening: 35/8

Late Evening: 7/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 22/6

VIP: 10/4

IMAX: 12/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.246x of HG:BoSS for $1.4M

 

It's showing a little life. It'll be interesting to see how it does down thr stretch.

[PrinceRico]

So is Wonka still only looking at a low to mid 20s opening 

[Wandavisionlover0924]

1 hour ago, PrinceRico said:

So is Wonka still only looking at a low to mid 20s opening 

One Deadline article was saying 35-40M. Idk about predictions here

[MysteryMovieMogul]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Soul is Docter's movie. So I think that has the best potential though releasing after the movies being available on D+ is a different ball game. May be disney should pull those movies off the platform for next 3-4 months while the movie is being released 🙂

That would have way more of a negative impact than a positive one. I mean, talk about not being able to trust streaming platforms.

 

Also, judging by each film's release date, they're only going to be in theaters for a month, at most.

[misterpepp]

Anyone But You and Boys in the Boat on sale Friday.

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

I just saw the newly posted Box Office Pro Weekend Forecast. Most of it makes sense (Boy & the Heron pinpoint of $10.2 M, etc.), but I cannot get my head around the prediction for Godzilla Minus One to drop 72% and only earn $3.2 million this coming weekend -- below Trolls, Wish and Napoleon. @Shawn, I'd love to hear more about how your team came up with that number.

 

Box Office Pro Weekend Forecast Link

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 10	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
The Boy and the Heron	GKIDS	$10,200,000	$10,200,000	~2,100	NEW
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes	Lionsgate	$9,500,000	$135,600,000	~3,500	-33%
Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé	AMC Theatres Distribution	$6,300,000	$29,300,000	~2,539	-71%
Trolls Band Together	Universal Pictures	$6,000,000	$82,900,000	~3,500	-23%
Wish	Disney	$5,300,000	$49,300,000	~3,400	-31%
Napoleon	Sony Pictures & Apple	$4,500,000	$53,300,000	~3,300	-38%
Godzilla Minus One	Toho International	$3,200,000	$18,800,000	~2,400	-72%
The Shift	Angel Studios	$1,800,000	$8,200,000	~2,450	-58%
Silent Night	Lionsgate	$1,500,000	$5,500,000	~1,870	-50%
Thanksgiving	Sony Pictures & TriStar	$1,500,000	$30,800,000	~2,000	-43%

[VanillaSkies]

2 hours ago, PrinceRico said:

So is Wonka still only looking at a low to mid 20s opening 

Rotten Tomatoes now has Wonka certified fresh at 85% with 84 reviews. Hopefully once the public gets wind of the good reviews/WOM it will help boost sales. Importantly, it’s opening this Friday in many overseas markets, so audience reactions from around Europe, etc. could help boost US sentiment and sales.

[Brainbug]

Yeah i dont get that forecasted -72% drop on Godzilla -1 either. Its loosing IMAX, but it would think the WOM will help it to manage quite a soft drop. Im thinking more like 30% range.

[PrinceRico]

If TCP does open to low to mid teens or higher what is its opening week total looking like 

[keysersoze123]

I am surprised by that prediction from @Shawn. It does not seem plausible looking at weekday holds. 

[Issac Newton]

+2,200 Locs!

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Issac Newton

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

+2,200 Locs!

 

 

Foreign movies will save this weekend for theaters. If it was only Hollywood movies out right now ... it would look extremely bleak.

[MovieMan89]

Shawn must be thinking there’s only room for one Japanese movie on the market since Heron also is looking like a breakout? No other explanation for the -1 predict. Personally, I think both will smash this weekend. All hail our rising sun overlords. 

[MovieMan89]

I would seriously be less surprised with -1 staying flat this weekend than a 70% drop