The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

But likewise, we might be in unprecedented territory for -1. I say again, when did a foreign movie last overperform so much in opening and get rave WOM from domestic audience? Crouching Tiger maybe? Obviously not comparable for opening. 

 

Last time in terms of overall very good perfomance was probably Parasite (2019), which was a steady 2-4M weekly grosser and ended up with a 53M total. However, its not comparable in terms of OW obviously, Minus One has a major headstart with that. And with Parasite, its also important to consider the major awards buzz it had in January/Feburary 2020 that helped it immensely in its grosses.

[M37]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Last time in terms of overall very good perfomance was probably Parasite (2019), which was a steady 2-4M weekly grosser and ended up with a 53M total. However, its not comparable in terms of OW obviously, Minus One has a major headstart with that. And with Parasite, its also important to consider the major awards buzz it had in January/Feburary 2020 that helped it immensely in its grosses.

The most semi-comparable Parasite weeks would probably be the Nov 1st --> 8th --> 15th weekends, when an expansion from 461 location to 603 led to a +2.1% change, then adding 17 more (probably some additional adds and drop) led to a -28% drop. That was all WOM (and advertising?) driven, but not a perfect analog given the limited release had burned off some of the "see it now" demand that leads to a bigger 2nd weekend decline from a true OW

 

EEAAO, not foreign but certainly Art House breaking into the mainstream, also had a 2% increase when expanding from 1250 to 2220 for Easter weekend

 

I'm very curious to see what G-1 number we get for today (Wed); not going to be totally shocked if its up a decent amount from Monday the WOM wave continues to build

[MovieMan89]

I’d love to see a small increase this weekend, that would mean all bets are off for how high it can go if given the chance. 

[Flip]

looking at Poor Things showings for this weekend, and I'm expecting it to at least get #2 PTA of the year, without Dolby I think it would've been close between it and Beau is Afraid though

[Joyous Legion]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Well, since you asked...

 

$6M.

 

Do I have a comp?  Nope.  

 

I mean, I was tempted to give a Sound of Freedom comp - aka, a movie that normally appeals to a very narrow base, which came out of nowhere right before open with large presales and decent reviews, and then grew over OW from spectacular WOM that extended past its narrow base and into the public at large. 

 

But, that comp would have to be an increase from this weekend...and as you said, The Boy and The Heron is gonna overlap a lot:)...

 

But, you did ask for a comp, and since we don't have a foreign movie that broke through its tiny market to the GA at large, I got more creative.

FWIW I think a small increase on true fss is possible. Always hard to call such things with only the current amount of data available though

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

According to a Deadline article published Wednesday evening:  "Distributor Toho International said it’s been adding screens this week due to marketplace demand. It will be playing the film by Takashi Yamazaki in 2,540 locations (up from 2,308)."

 

Link to Deadline Article "Godzilla Minus One Highest Grossing Live Action Japanese Film in North America"

 

 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/5/2023 at 8:12 PM, keysersoze123 said:

The Boy and the heron MTC1

Monday Imax Final - 18777/45227 360088.07 144 shows

Wed early shows - 6373/12448 97203.13 77 shows

Previews - 8928/141549 146286.14 984 shows

Friday -  15225/272125 243598.85 1773 shows

 

Monday walkups was just ok. I am not expect wednesday to move the needle that much but its playing wider at other MTCs which do not have IMAX. Already friday sales relative to thursday shows there is potential for good OW. I think 3m+ true friday should happen. 

The Boy and the heron MTC1

Wednesday Early Shows Final - 7480/13528 113291.46 85 shows

Previews(T-1) - 12287/149911 202816.21 1036 shows +3359

Friday - 20758/285224 333012.22 1856 shows +5533

 

MTC2 Wed Final - 4893/14447 71431.70 92 shows

 

Thinking around 350-400K today with early shows. Probably around 500K yesterday(Mostly MTC1/3 imax screens). I think another 700-800K tomorrow and it has been playing limited shows for a while as well. So around 2m overall including everything. Friday is doing very well. Definitely hitting double digits. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews -18438/471830 336014.68 2241 shows

Friday - 15895/725701 274741.53 3383 shows 

Wonka MTC1

Previews -19364/472930 352697.02 2246 shows

Friday - 16913/725428 292294.45 3383 shows 

 

Pace is just ok at this point. 

[misterpepp]

Sony Classics will be re-releasing Amelie on Feb 14, 2024.

 

Angel Studios has 7 releases set for 2024, 5 of which are untitled.

[vafrow]

On 12/6/2023 at 4:59 AM, vafrow said:

 

Wonka, T-9, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 44

New Sales since last update: 8

Growth: 22%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 2/4

Early Evening: 35/8

Late Evening: 7/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 22/6

VIP: 10/4

IMAX: 12/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.246x of HG:BoSS for $1.4M

 

It's showing a little life. It'll be interesting to see how it does down thr stretch.

 

Wonka, T-8, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 46

New Sales since last update: 2

Growth: 4.5%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 2/4

Early Evening: 37/8

Late Evening: 7/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 22/6

VIP: 12/4

IMAX: 12/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.238x of HG:BoSS for $1.4M

 

More meh

[el sid]

A more detailed update later today, also with more comps.

The Boy and the Heron had yesterday 408 sold tickets for Thursday (with showtimes in 6 theaters).
Comps (all three films counted for Thursday and always the final presales = counted on Thursday for Thursday so The Boy and the Heron has 1 day left): One Piece Film: Red (? from previews/4.8M OD/ 9.3M OW) had 849 sold tickets,
Godzilla Minus One (2.1M from previews on Wednesday and Thursday; I think it was reported here that around 800k were from Thursday) had 285 sold tickets = 1.1M + 1 day left (means definitely more than 1.15M from previews).

and Dungeons & Dragons (4.1M from previews on Thursday) had 1.265 sold tickets = 1.3M + 1 day left.

Edited December 7, 2023 by el sid

[emoviefan]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews -19364/472930 352697.02 2246 shows

Friday - 16913/725428 292294.45 3383 shows 

 

Pace is just ok at this point. 

Still got to believe it will be all about WOM with this movie. No reason it to think it can not be another PIB 2 or TGS if audiences like it. And it's going to have a much better opening weekend than either one of them did.

[joselowe]

It’s crazy Willy Wonka has barely sold any seats at my local AMC here in Miami yet the color purple has sold out most shows a week later. 

[Shawn Robbins]

15 hours ago, M37 said:

Here's what I wrote in the weekdays thread earlier fwiw

 

But looking at the direct comp with Suzame, the ratio of their daily grosses has gone from 1.79x for TFri to 2.29x Sat, 2.41x Sun, 2.69x Mon, and 3.14x Tue.  Even if G-1 falls back down to the ~2.5x range for Wed (which would project to a ~$4.0M 2nd weekend), I don't think its reasonable to expect a similar -25% Thursday and pathetic +28% increase for Friday, even with the loss of IMAX shows and Heron competition

 

Meanwhile, G-1 is also gaining in dailies vs Smile (.42, .43, .51, .56, .57), and 0.5 of Smile's second weekend would be over $9M, before adjusting for IDP Day and IMAX loss. I like the Smile comp because it started out as a basic horror flick, but the WOM expanded the audience pool and led to a very leggy run, and I think G-1 has already broken free of the more niche anime-adjacent/Godzilla-fan type audience, to the broader action and/or monster crowd as @TwoMisfits suggested, despite the foreign language barrier

 

And on flip side here on BOT, because it's going to be a terrible weekend leading into what is expected to be a fairly weak Christmas season, we have not much else to pay attention to other than a potential nice little run for G-1

 

16 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Well, since you asked...

 

$6M.

 

Do I have a comp?  Nope.  

 

I mean, I was tempted to give a Sound of Freedom comp - aka, a movie that normally appeals to a very narrow base, which came out of nowhere right before open with large presales and decent reviews, and then grew over OW from spectacular WOM that extended past its narrow base and into the public at large. 

 

But, that comp would have to be an increase from this weekend...and as you said, The Boy and The Heron is gonna overlap a lot:)...

 

But, you did ask for a comp, and since we don't have a foreign movie that broke through its tiny market to the GA at large, I got more creative.

 

15 hours ago, DAJK said:

Also @Shawn -1 is getting a massive expansion in Canada this weekend. Platform release last weekend (I think only 11 cineplex locations) but it is expanding into a pretty wide release this weekend. That will also help soften the drop.

 

Wednesday came in at $1.361m (-21%). 2.98x Suzume's 1st Wed.

 

So yeah, let's go a flat $6.0m "team" number.

[Shawn Robbins]

17 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

The evidence would basically be amazing holds since Sunday indicate wildfire WOM spreading.  They don’t look like anything frontloaded, but no I’m sure there’s no good comp since when was the last time a foreign movie way over performed on OW and got great WOM? 

I think my main caution here is that it's still a little soon to judge daily holds without something that has truly broken away from a normal-ish pattern. Tuesday was definitely on the "very good" spectrum, but everything before that looked pretty much as expected.

 

(And keep in mind, you guys don't see these forecasts until you've seen Tuesday's gross which is often not available when I'm compiling certain forecasts and reports.)

 

As @M37 alluded to, it's really that Thu-Fri pattern of Suzume that GMO needs to avoid in order to prevent a sharp second weekend decline, which is certainly feasible as anime is a different beast than a known monster IP even if both share some other DNA (i.e., being a foreign film). But even with strong reception among fans, there's a ceiling on how much it can expand its audience. We just don't know where it is yet.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

17 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

 

 

Wednesday came in at $1.361m (-21%). 2.98x Suzume's 1st Wed.

 

So yeah, let's go a flat $6.0m "team" number.

Thanks for all you do for the box office community, @Shawn! It's awesome how collaborative and team-spirted you are with the folks on BOT.

 

Btw, on your updated Box Office Pro chart, you currently still have GMO listed in 2400 theaters for the weekend. Isn't its new theater count ~2540 based on the widely circulated posts from Toho @Godzilla_Toho and Deadline (which specified 2540) last evening?

 

Link to Godzilla Toho Tweet

[ChipDerby]

I think it's funny to use GMO as the abbreviation for the movie because Godzilla is a GMO.

[keysersoze123]

I prefer -1 :-)

[el sid]

The Boy and the Heron, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 35 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 87 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 37 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 163 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 122 (4 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 456.

Up modest 12% since yesterday.
Comps (always counted on Thursday for Thursday): One Piece Film: Red (? from previews/4.8M OD) had 849 sold tickets = 54%,
Godzilla Minus One (2.1M from previews on Wednesday and Thursday; I think it was reported here that around 800k came from Thursday) had 285 sold tickets = 1.3M,

Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero (4.3M - I'm not sure if this was the true Thursday number or included EA shows) had 1.457 sold tickets = 1.35M

and Dungeons & Dragons (4.1M true Thursday) had 1.265 sold tickets = 1.5M.

On an average 1.4M from previews (Thursday only) for The Boy and the Heron.
And also in my theaters the Friday presales look way better than the Thursday presales. E.g. in the AMC in NY it has 35 sold tickets for Thursday but 86 sold tickets for Friday. So I'm also very confident that it will reach 10M+ over the weekend.

Edited December 7, 2023 by el sid