The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[joselowe]

Wonka can’t really be compared to The Greatest Showman. The reason The Greatest Showman had those legs is because the soundtrack was huge despite a low opening week at the B.O. The soundtrack ended up being the top selling album worldwide for 2018

WB isn’t even promoting Wonka as a musical.

 

This weekend will likely be a clear indication for how the film will do domestically.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/12/2023 at 12:25 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 99607/324776 1258796.15 2292 shows

12/26 - 25167/310741 317289.67 2175 shows

 

 Atleast it did not maintain the crazy pace seen yesterday. Still its very strong. I think if capacity is not a concern, it could hit 20m OD :-)  

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 107233/336043 1355969.35 2379 shows

12/26 - 27228/317293 343781.92 2221 shows

 

Still the skew is crazy.  

[Shawn Robbins]

3 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Holiday legs will help but Wonka's lower than I would have guessed 

I erred on the lowish end of the range to be safe but I wouldn't be shocked with 40-45. My data pointed closer to 4m Thursday than 3.5 but it's so dependent on marginal shifts for the final 36 hours that it's hard to be certain.

[Eric Prime]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Wonka hitting 40 for OW would give me like 90% confidence in 400 DOM

 

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Well that’s true, they can have 20x legs in recent years. My bad. 

 

You know @M37 already did this, but I'm gonna go further. Because I did my own research. Was waiting to share this in the weekend thread for easy likes, but might as well do it now. I have compiled every single mid-December opener that I could find, courtesy of The-Numbers. Specificially ones like Wonka that are 3-day openers to level the playing field. I did have some issues with years like 2014, where the 19th was arguably pre-Christmas and mid-December, as well as 2015, when Christmas was on a Friday, but I just included that weekend and the weekend prior to make things kind of easier and also add even more comparisons. So without further ado, here's every 3-day mid-December opening available to me and their OW multipliers.

 

Spoiler

Avatar 2: 5.1x

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home: 3.13x

Nightmare Alley: 4.03x

 

Jumanji: The Next Level: 5.35x

Richard Jewell: 4.75x

Black Christmas: 2.46x

 

Into the Spider-Verse: 5.38x

The Mule: 5.93x

Mortal Engines: 2.11x

 

Star Wars Last Jedi: 2.82x

Ferdinand: 6.3x

 

Rogue One: 3.44x

Collateral Beauty: 4.37x

 

Star Wars Force Awakens: 3.78x

Alvin and Chipmunks Road Chip: 6.01x

Sisters: 6.25x

In the Heart of the Sea: 2.26x

 

Night at the Museum 3: 6.65x

Annie: 5.42x

Exodus: Gods and Kings: 2.70x

Top Five: 3.67x

 

Madea Christmas: 3.28x

Hobbit 1: 3.58x

 

Sherlock Holmes 2: 4.71x

Alvin 3: 5.73x

 

Tron: Legacy: 3.91x

Yogi Bear: 6.11x

How Do You Know?: 4.04x

 

Avatar: 10.19x

Did You Hear About the Morgans: 4.47x

The Princess and the Frog: 4.31x

Invictus: 4.35x

 

Yes Man: 5.35x

Seven Pounds: 4.71x

The Tale of Desperaux: 5.04x

The Day the Earth Stood Still: 2.60x

 

I Am Legend: 3.32x

Alvin and the Chipmunks: 4.9x

 

The Pursuit of Happyness: 6.13x

Eragon: 3.23x

Charlotte’s Web: 7.24x

 

The Family Stone: 4.8x

 

A Series of Unfortunate Events: 3.95x

Spanglish: 4.77x

Flight of the Phoenix: 4.19x

 

Something’s Gotta Give: 7.76x

Stuck On You: 3.59x

Love Don’t Cost a Thing: 3.47x

 

Maid in Manhattan: 5.02x

Star Trek: Nemesis: 2.34x

Drumline: 4.47x

The Hot Chick: 4.74x

 

Vanilla Sky: 4.02x

Not Another Teen Movie: 3.00x

 

What Women Want: 5.44x

Dude, Where’s My Car?: 3.37x

The Emperor’s New Groove: 9.13x

 

Stuart Little: 9.32x

Bicentennial Man: 7.07x

Anna and the King: 7.51x

 

You’ve Got Mail: 6.29x

The Prince of Egypt: 6.98x

Star Trek: Insurrection: 3.18x

Jack Frost: 4.88x

 

Titanic: 23.55x

Tomorrow Never Dies: 4.98x

Mouse Hunt: 10.21x

Scream 2: 3.08x

For Richer or Poorer: 5.27x

Home Alone 3: 6.04x

 

Jerry Maguire: 9.01x

Mars Attacks!: 4.02x

The Preacher’s Wife: 6.29x

 

Jumanji: 9.06x

Heat: 7.98x

Sabrina: 9.61x

 

Dumb and Dumber: 7.77x

Speechless: 5.18x

 

The Pelican Brief: 5.98x

Beethoven’s 2nd: 8.75x

 

Toys: 4.46x

 

Leap of Faith: 6.92x

 

Hook: 8.85x

The Last Boy Scout: 7.51x

 

Look Who’s Talking Too: 5.75x

Mermaids: 10.0x

Havana: 4.23x

 

The Wizard: 6.66x

Family Business: 11.05x

We’re No Angels: 5.15x

Blaze: 10.95x

 

Rain Man: 24.67x

 

Eddie Murphy Raw: 5.56x

Batteries Not Included: 9.90x

Overboard: 14.21x

Leonard Part 6: 3.04x

Throw Momma from the Train: 7.29x

Wall Street: 10.68x

 

Little Shop of Horrors: 10.59x

No Mercy: 5.60x

King Kong Lives: 4.02x

 

The Golden Child: 6.91x

Three Amigos: 6.61x

 

Jewel of the Nile: 10.27x

Clue: 6.64x

 

Dune: 4.56x

The Cotton Club: 8.93x

Starman: 9.99x

Runaway: 5.67x

 

Two of a Kind: 7.08x

Uncommon Valor: 8.87x

D.C. Cab: 10.31x

The Man Who Loved Women: 8.17x

Gorky Park: 12.32x

To Be Or Not to Be: 12.76x

 

Tootsie: 31.98x

The Dark Crystal: 8.71x

Best Friends: 9.11x

Trail of the Pink Panther: 5.37x

 

Neighbors: 4.62x

Sharky’s Machine: 10.91x

Any Which Way You Can: 8.81x

 

9 to 5: 26.04x

Stir Crazy: 11.65x

 

1941: 12.65x

 

Superman: 12.95x

 

Saturday Night Fever: 35.97x

 

So of the 127 movies, 127 of them, the only movies that have gotten to over 20x their opening on this weekend. Five of them. Just five. And the last one? Well, it was a movie that came out 26 years ago and um...was pretty atypical from most runs. Something called Titanic.

 

Of the movies listed that did 10 times their opening? A bit more at about 19. But you know...that's only 15% of the movies listed. And the last one listed there was a movie called Avatar, which also had a pretty atypical run. So yeah. Seems pretty tough for Wonka to achieve a feat that you say is a total breeze and it can do in its sleep.

 

Now let's look at the openings that came out on December 15 specifically. After all, release date really matters when it comes to December legs.

Spoiler

Star Wars Last Jedi: 2.82x

Ferdinand: 6.3x

 

The Pursuit of Happyness: 6.13x

Eragon: 3.23x

Charlotte’s Web: 7.24x

 

What Women Want: 5.44x

Dude, Where’s My Car?: 3.37x

The Emperor’s New Groove: 9.13x

 

Jumanji: 9.06x

Heat: 7.98x

Sabrina: 9.61x

 

The Wizard: 6.66x

Family Business: 11.05x

We’re No Angels: 5.15x

Blaze: 10.95x

 

Superman: 12.95x

 

Wowie zowie, only 3 three movies got to 10x. And the last ones were in 1989 with two movies that literally nobody in this forum has ever heard of before. That seems pretty challenging for Wonka to achieve.

 

Now, let's move onto just adding in G/PG-rated movies to make a genre comparison.

 

Spoiler

Into the Spider-Verse: 5.38x

 

Ferdinand: 6.3x

 

Alvin and Chipmunks Road Chip: 6.01x

 

Night at the Museum 3: 6.65x

Annie: 5.42x

 

Alvin 3: 5.73x

 

Yogi Bear: 6.11x

 

The Princess and the Frog: 4.31x

 

The Tale of Desperaux: 5.04x

 

Alvin and the Chipmunks: 4.9x

 

Eragon: 3.23x

Charlotte’s Web: 7.24x

 

A Series of Unfortunate Events: 3.95x

 

The Emperor’s New Groove: 9.13x

 

Stuart Little: 9.32x

Bicentennial Man: 7.07x

 

The Prince of Egypt: 6.98x

Jack Frost: 4.88x

 

Mouse Hunt: 10.21x

Home Alone 3: 6.04x

 

Jumanji: 9.06x

 

Beethoven’s 2nd: 8.75x

 

Hook: 8.85x

 

Look Who’s Talking Too: 5.75x

 

The Wizard: 6.66x

 

So on that list, only one single movie got above 10x, and it only just barely did so. Mouse Hunt, a film that came out 26 years ago.

 

So riddle me this, Batman. Why and/or how would Wonka get to 10x its opening? Or 15x its opening, as you claim? You said movies can do it on Christmas just like that, but I'm showing you for films with similar release dates as Wonka, that the evidence is not there. Why and/or how can this film reach 10x or 15x or 20x or whatever, when it will be playing pre-pre Christmas break, will lose screens to a whopping 5 new releases (and Poor Things expanding), with two more new releases three days later, will lose all its PLFs to Aquaman, at a time when PLFs are more important than ever to find success, and with moviegoing cut dramatically after COVID and the streaming wars gave theaters a huge blow? Tell me. I want to know.

I showed my work, and you seem ultra cocky about 10x being a total 100% no question lock for Wonka. So show me yours. Because this attitude you've been having over this movie and Migration and how they will have the greatest legs in movie history has gotten pretty old and tired and everybody's sick of it. Show me your work.

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/12/2023 at 4:18 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wonka (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	128	75	510	21268	2.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		365	52	71.57
MTC1:		302	43	59.22
Marcus:		51	8	10
Alamo:		65	6	12.75
Other chains:		92	18	18.04

 

Comps:

0.08x Barbie (THU): $1.77 Million

1.51x Wish (TUE): $2.72 Million

2.58x Trolls Band Together: $3.35 Million

1.21x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.76 Million

0.35x Hunger Games: $2.03 Million

0.3x Indiana Jones: $2.14 Million

 

Average: $2.63 Million

 

Staying flat, but the comps versus the family-oriented fare (Wish, Trolls, Haunted Mansion) are still very encouraging (that average is $3.28 Million, without accounting for Wish's Tuesday discount). Kind of regretting comping it with so many IP blockbusters but I guess the growth rates tomorrow will be revealing.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wonka (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	132	111	621	22334	2.78

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		431	66	69.4
MTC1:		357	55	57.49
Marcus:		65	14	10.47
Alamo:		65	0	10.47
Other chains:		134	42	21.58

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	21.76
3-Day:	69.67

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.08x Barbie (THU): $1.72 Million (25%, 94%)

1.44x Wish (TUE): $2.59 Million (27%, 65%)

2.41x Trolls Band Together: $3.13 Million (30%, 101%)

1.5x Haunted Mansion (switching to THU): $4.49 Million (47%, 115%)

0.35x Hunger Games: $2.02 Million (22%, 67%)

0.31x Indiana Jones: $2.26 Million (16%, 65%)

 

Average: $2.7 Million

 

Not a good T-1 update here, way closer to the stuff like Hunger Games or Indiana Jones versus Haunted Mansion, Trolls, or Wish. This seems to be stronger elsewhere, and looking at just those three family-oriented comps gives an average of $3.4 Million (with Wish unadjusted). With that, taking into account the very soft growth, and not being able to give a final update tomorrow and having very little idea of walk-ups, I'll go with a final prediction of $3.1 Million, +/- 0.3. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	249	33106	0.75%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-17

42

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-17

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.711x) of Trolls 3 $925k Previews

(0.451x) of Elemental $1.08M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.00M

 

Just not much going on

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	246	33106	0.74%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-3

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.663x) of Trolls 3 $862k Previews

(0.423x) of Elemental $1.01M Previews

Comps AVG: $936k

 

3 returns no sales 

[Grand Cine]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 107233/336043 1355969.35 2379 shows

12/26 - 27228/317293 343781.92 2221 shows

 

Still the skew is crazy.  

The pace continue to be really good for OD , and the pace for the 26th begins to climb . With the good marketing this week , the final week could be big

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	109	25978	0.41%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.752x) of Greek Wedding 3 $413k Previews

(0.580x) of Asteroid City $638k Previews

Comps AVG: $526k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	116	25978	0.44%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.806x) of Greek Wedding 3 $443k Previews

(0.569x) of Asteroid City $626k Previews

Comps AVG: $535k

[nguyenkhoi282]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Wonka hitting 40 for OW would give me like 90% confidence in 400 DOM

I'd like to see that universe but after seeing other analysis, I'm gonna be happy with 200-300M DOM.

[MovieMan89]

Lmao at Eric once again getting way too pressed over something not remotely such a big deal. Neve change dude.

 

The issue though is treating this as a “mid December” movie given this years cal configuration and the lack of any big right before Xmas release (we know it’s not Aquabro lol). No reason this wouldn’t  play far more similarly to the Jumanji 2s and TGSs of the holiday legs world than The Hobbits and whatnot. 
 

I’ve given tons to reasons for months why Wonka is a lock for incredible legs with great WOM, not repeating them. If WOM isn’t great, then throw that all out the window. It has always hinged on great WOM like I said. And yeah, I stick to the predictions I’m passionate about because I tend to have a knack for that sort of thing. Once again, who else was predicting 500/1b+ for Mario and Barbie a year or so out? Relax. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	1051	38536	2.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-17

191

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-17

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(1.163x) of Blue Beetle $3.84M Previews

(0.381x) of The Flash $3.70M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.77M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	1072	38536	2.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(1.147x) of Blue Beetle $3.78M Previews

(0.381x) of The Flash $3.70M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.74M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
252	1515	49367	3.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-10

584

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-10

57

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.170x) of Barbie $3.59M Previews

(0.324x) of TLM $3.34M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.47M

 

Looks like $3M-$4M previews 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
252	1702	49367	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

187

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.161x) of Barbie $3.39M Previews

(0.319x) of TLM $3.29M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.34M

 

decreased against both comps. Average growth

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
172	3415	32294	10.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-21

1645

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-21

12

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-13

 

Comps with Thursday previews 

(1.159x) of Barbie $24.46M 

(1.312x) of TLM $13.51M 

Comps AVG: $18.99M

 

 

Christmas day is blockbuster level

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
172	3471	32294	10.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

56

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-12

 

Comps with Thursday previews 

(1.073x) of Barbie $22.64M 

(1.310x) of TLM $13.50M 

Comps AVG: $18.07M

[joselowe]

1 hour ago, Eric Wonka said:

 

You know @M37 already did this, but I'm gonna go further. Because I did my own research. Was waiting to share this in the weekend thread for easy likes, but might as well do it now. I have compiled every single mid-December opener that I could find, courtesy of The-Numbers. Specificially ones like Wonka that are 3-day openers to level the playing field. I did have some issues with years like 2014, where the 19th was arguably pre-Christmas and mid-December, as well as 2015, when Christmas was on a Friday, but I just included that weekend and the weekend prior to make things kind of easier and also add even more comparisons. So without further ado, here's every 3-day mid-December opening available to me and their OW multipliers.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Avatar 2: 5.1x

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home: 3.13x

Nightmare Alley: 4.03x

 

Jumanji: The Next Level: 5.35x

Richard Jewell: 4.75x

Black Christmas: 2.46x

 

Into the Spider-Verse: 5.38x

The Mule: 5.93x

Mortal Engines: 2.11x

 

Star Wars Last Jedi: 2.82x

Ferdinand: 6.3x

 

Rogue One: 3.44x

Collateral Beauty: 4.37x

 

Star Wars Force Awakens: 3.78x

Alvin and Chipmunks Road Chip: 6.01x

Sisters: 6.25x

In the Heart of the Sea: 2.26x

 

Night at the Museum 3: 6.65x

Annie: 5.42x

Exodus: Gods and Kings: 2.70x

Top Five: 3.67x

 

Madea Christmas: 3.28x

Hobbit 1: 3.58x

 

Sherlock Holmes 2: 4.71x

Alvin 3: 5.73x

 

Tron: Legacy: 3.91x

Yogi Bear: 6.11x

How Do You Know?: 4.04x

 

Avatar: 10.19x

Did You Hear About the Morgans: 4.47x

The Princess and the Frog: 4.31x

Invictus: 4.35x

 

Yes Man: 5.35x

Seven Pounds: 4.71x

The Tale of Desperaux: 5.04x

The Day the Earth Stood Still: 2.60x

 

I Am Legend: 3.32x

Alvin and the Chipmunks: 4.9x

 

The Pursuit of Happyness: 6.13x

Eragon: 3.23x

Charlotte’s Web: 7.24x

 

The Family Stone: 4.8x

 

A Series of Unfortunate Events: 3.95x

Spanglish: 4.77x

Flight of the Phoenix: 4.19x

 

Something’s Gotta Give: 7.76x

Stuck On You: 3.59x

Love Don’t Cost a Thing: 3.47x

 

Maid in Manhattan: 5.02x

Star Trek: Nemesis: 2.34x

Drumline: 4.47x

The Hot Chick: 4.74x

 

Vanilla Sky: 4.02x

Not Another Teen Movie: 3.00x

 

What Women Want: 5.44x

Dude, Where’s My Car?: 3.37x

The Emperor’s New Groove: 9.13x

 

Stuart Little: 9.32x

Bicentennial Man: 7.07x

Anna and the King: 7.51x

 

You’ve Got Mail: 6.29x

The Prince of Egypt: 6.98x

Star Trek: Insurrection: 3.18x

Jack Frost: 4.88x

 

Titanic: 23.55x

Tomorrow Never Dies: 4.98x

Mouse Hunt: 10.21x

Scream 2: 3.08x

For Richer or Poorer: 5.27x

Home Alone 3: 6.04x

 

Jerry Maguire: 9.01x

Mars Attacks!: 4.02x

The Preacher’s Wife: 6.29x

 

Jumanji: 9.06x

Heat: 7.98x

Sabrina: 9.61x

 

Dumb and Dumber: 7.77x

Speechless: 5.18x

 

The Pelican Brief: 5.98x

Beethoven’s 2nd: 8.75x

 

Toys: 4.46x

 

Leap of Faith: 6.92x

 

Hook: 8.85x

The Last Boy Scout: 7.51x

 

Look Who’s Talking Too: 5.75x

Mermaids: 10.0x

Havana: 4.23x

 

The Wizard: 6.66x

Family Business: 11.05x

We’re No Angels: 5.15x

Blaze: 10.95x

 

Rain Man: 24.67x

 

Eddie Murphy Raw: 5.56x

Batteries Not Included: 9.90x

Overboard: 14.21x

Leonard Part 6: 3.04x

Throw Momma from the Train: 7.29x

Wall Street: 10.68x

 

Little Shop of Horrors: 10.59x

No Mercy: 5.60x

King Kong Lives: 4.02x

 

The Golden Child: 6.91x

Three Amigos: 6.61x

 

Jewel of the Nile: 10.27x

Clue: 6.64x

 

Dune: 4.56x

The Cotton Club: 8.93x

Starman: 9.99x

Runaway: 5.67x

 

Two of a Kind: 7.08x

Uncommon Valor: 8.87x

D.C. Cab: 10.31x

The Man Who Loved Women: 8.17x

Gorky Park: 12.32x

To Be Or Not to Be: 12.76x

 

Tootsie: 31.98x

The Dark Crystal: 8.71x

Best Friends: 9.11x

Trail of the Pink Panther: 5.37x

 

Neighbors: 4.62x

Sharky’s Machine: 10.91x

Any Which Way You Can: 8.81x

 

9 to 5: 26.04x

Stir Crazy: 11.65x

 

1941: 12.65x

 

Superman: 12.95x

 

Saturday Night Fever: 35.97x

 

So of the 127 movies, 127 of them, the only movies that have gotten to over 20x their opening on this weekend. Five of them. Just five. And the last one? Well, it was a movie that came out 26 years ago and um...was pretty atypical from most runs. Something called Titanic.

 

Of the movies listed that did 10 times their opening? A bit more at about 19. But you know...that's only 15% of the movies listed. And the last one listed there was a movie called Avatar, which also had a pretty atypical run. So yeah. Seems pretty tough for Wonka to achieve a feat that you say is a total breeze and it can do in its sleep.

 

Now let's look at the openings that came out on December 15 specifically. After all, release date really matters when it comes to December legs.

  Reveal hidden contents

Star Wars Last Jedi: 2.82x

Ferdinand: 6.3x

 

The Pursuit of Happyness: 6.13x

Eragon: 3.23x

Charlotte’s Web: 7.24x

 

What Women Want: 5.44x

Dude, Where’s My Car?: 3.37x

The Emperor’s New Groove: 9.13x

 

Jumanji: 9.06x

Heat: 7.98x

Sabrina: 9.61x

 

The Wizard: 6.66x

Family Business: 11.05x

We’re No Angels: 5.15x

Blaze: 10.95x

 

Superman: 12.95x

 

Wowie zowie, only 3 three movies got to 10x. And the last ones were in 1989 with two movies that literally nobody in this forum has ever heard of before. That seems pretty challenging for Wonka to achieve.

 

Now, let's move onto just adding in G/PG-rated movies to make a genre comparison.

 

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Into the Spider-Verse: 5.38x

 

Ferdinand: 6.3x

 

Alvin and Chipmunks Road Chip: 6.01x

 

Night at the Museum 3: 6.65x

Annie: 5.42x

 

Alvin 3: 5.73x

 

Yogi Bear: 6.11x

 

The Princess and the Frog: 4.31x

 

The Tale of Desperaux: 5.04x

 

Alvin and the Chipmunks: 4.9x

 

Eragon: 3.23x

Charlotte’s Web: 7.24x

 

A Series of Unfortunate Events: 3.95x

 

The Emperor’s New Groove: 9.13x

 

Stuart Little: 9.32x

Bicentennial Man: 7.07x

 

The Prince of Egypt: 6.98x

Jack Frost: 4.88x

 

Mouse Hunt: 10.21x

Home Alone 3: 6.04x

 

Jumanji: 9.06x

 

Beethoven’s 2nd: 8.75x

 

Hook: 8.85x

 

Look Who’s Talking Too: 5.75x

 

The Wizard: 6.66x

 

So on that list, only one single movie got above 10x, and it only just barely did so. Mouse Hunt, a film that came out 26 years ago.

 

So riddle me this, Batman. Why and/or how would Wonka get to 10x its opening? Or 15x its opening, as you claim? You said movies can do it on Christmas just like that, but I'm showing you for films with similar release dates as Wonka, that the evidence is not there. Why and/or how can this film reach 10x or 15x or 20x or whatever, when it will be playing pre-pre Christmas break, will lose screens to a whopping 5 new releases (and Poor Things expanding), with two more new releases three days later, will lose all its PLFs to Aquaman, at a time when PLFs are more important than ever to find success, and with moviegoing cut dramatically after COVID and the streaming wars gave theaters a huge blow? Tell me. I want to know.

I showed my work, and you seem ultra cocky about 10x being a total 100% no question lock for Wonka. So show me yours. Because this attitude you've been having over this movie and Migration and how they will have the greatest legs in movie history has gotten pretty old and tired and everybody's sick of it. Show me your work.

Facts on top of facts!

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, joselowe said:

Facts on top of facts!

And I may actually appreciate where he was coming from if he wasn’t unnecessarily aggressive and hostile towards me for literally no reason. But that’s his style. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Inceptionzq]

36 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Also screenshotted my last two posts for other mods in case you decide to phantom delete my posts you disagree with but broke no forum guidelines like you consistently do (don’t think I don’t notice).

As I’ve said before, if you have problems with a moderator, please PM Cap instead of posting about it on the forums. She is less active right now for personal reasons though, but you can also PM any of us moderators to discuss it if you want.

[TwoMisfits]

I know this is tracking and buzz, but this is tangentially on buzz...

 

I think the big question for this holiday season is will families and friends continue to make the group holiday trip to the movies en masse as they have done in many holiday seasons (to include 2021's Spidey and 2022's Avatar), regardless if there is a "hit" blockbuster, or not, or has streaming and finances finally pushed folks home.  

 

I think it clears with the Color Purple, especially looking at the huge grouping sales at my locals (6-10 seats taken before a space vs the normal 1-2) that black families and friends are still prioritizing this activity.  But, they do have a blockbuster directly made to appeal, and the bigger and better the movie draw, the more you'll pay for the family to have fun together.

 

With other demographics though, will the same happen?  And if so, will they all rally to one movie, or will Wonka, Migration, Aquabros, and Color Purple all share the wealth?

 

I don't know - partly b/c my kids STILL don't know if and what they want to watch...and you know they are my box office whisperers.  1st my kid wanted Aquabros...and then backed off.  Now, he wants Wonka, but not enough he wants me to buy tickets.  So, I have no whispering for this season.  

 

Except to say that my head says that The Color Purple will probably be a Black Panther meets Women King phenomenon.  Whatever the Women King demo that brings ALL their families and friends to the theater (like happened with Black Panther) can get you, that movie will get.  So, I would not be so quick to poo-poo its chances of winning the December box office.  It doesn't need to share its draw.  Instead, its more-originally-narrow draw could work like Godzilla and start drawing others not planning to see it in...even if it's not great, b/c it will be talked about a lot fervently by a lot of people.

 

And it's got nostalgia on its side which builds the movie, which I can't say Wonka's does...

 

I'm in no real clubs and taking no bets on this box office, but if you want my thoughts on buzz and box office...The Color Purple has it and I'd bet on it to win December if Migration can't take off...and it's looking more clear that it doesn't seem to be...

[VanillaSkies]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

And it's got nostalgia on its side which builds the movie, which I can't say Wonka's does...

 

I'm in no real clubs and taking no bets on this box office, but if you want my thoughts on buzz and box office...The Color Purple has it and I'd bet on it to win December if Migration can't take off...and it's looking more clear that it doesn't seem to be...

While I agree with most of your post, I don’t think we can say Wonka has no nostalgia going for it. Parents with fond memories of the book and original movie certainly will have some nostalgia towards it, especially since the movie goes into the original Gene Wilder film as a defacto prequel. That nostalgia can help build stellar WOM that feeds the box office over the holidays. 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

While I agree with most of your post, I don’t think we can say Wonka has no nostalgia going for it. Parents with fond memories of the book and original movie certainly will have some nostalgia towards it, especially since the movie goes into the original Gene Wilder film as a defacto prequel. That nostalgia can help build stellar WOM that feeds the box office over the holidays. 

The nostalgia factor is tricky to figure out with it. On one hand, WB must have wanted it because what reason to tie it in otherwise. Yet on the other, they’ve done a terrible job highlighting the tie in in the marketing overall. So it’s very odd

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

While I agree with most of your post, I don’t think we can say Wonka has no nostalgia going for it. Parents with fond memories of the book and original movie certainly will have some nostalgia towards it, especially since the movie goes into the original Gene Wilder film as a defacto prequel. That nostalgia can help build stellar WOM that feeds the box office over the holidays. 

 

Nostalgia is not a clear win for Wonka - it doesn't feel like it's a prequel to those who've seen it, so it's bound to have nostalgia possibly be a detriment vs a win...b/c expectations matter...