The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Issac Newton]

$2.6M Salaar THU Previews

 

2nd Biggest for an Indian Title after RRR $3.46M

[Borobudur]

30 minutes ago, M37 said:

Some recovery on a walk-up friendly semi-holiday Thursday sure, but Friday sales always looked solid enough to me for an OW in the teens; just dropping the IM lower now that we have final (bigger) Th & Fri PS

 

Agree $100M would be a stretch, unless it’s “good enough” to leg out into Jan/Feb as the default option for families with younger kids 

The problem is Wonka is also a very viable option out there for families. PIB2 last year had a perfect situation that Migration isn't coming close to enjoy that. 

[JonathanMB]

I think even with Wonka, Migration will benefit from being the only animated film in release until Kung Fu Panda 4. I also think a lot of the December releases will have better legs than normal simply due to how barren January is, especially the last two weeks.

[filmlover]

I know they partially have the strikes to thank for it, but it's rather wild just how barren the first few months of the year are. February should be better than January due to more variety, though how much better is up for debate when the big anchor of the month is intended to be Madame Web (the "obvious flop in waiting" vibes are strong with this one).

[TheFlatLannister]

Sacto dark magic @Porthos

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[dallas]

$4.5M previews for Aquaman confirmed! Probably won't have a great IM considering that audience score, but walkups were pretty decent (did the Keaton walkups finally arrive?)

[Krissykins]

Higher previews than I expected for both Aquaman and Migration. 

[dallas]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Higher previews than I expected for both Aquaman and Migration. 

The power of Holiday walkups.

[Relevation]

17 hours ago, Relevation said:

Ok maybe I was a lil off on how bad the reviews would be but frankly I view this as a W prediction unless the actuals just throw me for a curveball

The actuals did in fact, throw me for a curveball

[abracadabra1998]

57 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Sacto dark magic @Porthos

 

Gonna stop tracking CBMs, all we need is Sacto for them. Awesome stuff @Porthos!!

 

At least my bullish numbers for Anyone But You and Migration were confirmed, was right on the money for the former. The Iron Claw though, good stuff! Way overperformed my predictions and numbers

[joselowe]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

Well, who knows. Greatest Showman opened worse and has worse reviews, and it does fulfill the "Illumination" expectation if not the "Benjamin Renner" one.

 

 

People keep forgetting that the soundtrack for The Greatest Showman saved the movie. It was the best selling album worldwide of 2017. Most of these non musicals without a popular soundtrack can’t really be compared to The Greatest Showman

[Bob Train]

2 minutes ago, joselowe said:

People keep forgetting that the soundtrack for The Greatest Showman saved the movie. It was the best selling album worldwide of 2017. Most of these non musicals without a popular soundtrack can’t really be compared to The Greatest Showman

Puss in Boots 2 had like 14x multiplier, without a popular/viral soundtrack

 

Don’t think Migration will come close to that at all really, but there have been other December leggy hits without popular soundtrack, even if not TGS levels of backloaded.

[joselowe]

10 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Puss in Boots 2 had like 14x multiplier, without a popular/viral soundtrack

 

Don’t think Migration will come close to that at all really, but there have been other December leggy hits without popular soundtrack, even if not TGS levels of backloaded.

I agree that’s a better example with the exception that Puss in Boots 2 had stellar reviews, GG and Oscar nominations and it mainly suffered the first fews weeks because it was competing at the same time that Avatar TWOW. This December has been pretty slow overall

Edited December 22, 2023 by joselowe

[rehpyc]

14 hours ago, rehpyc said:

MTC3 typically performs well on CBM films, but fearing a bit of underperformance here. Underperformance? 4.5M Average performance? 4.25M

 

So let's say 4.375M +/- .125M

 

Okay, I think I was being a bit too pessimistic in the MTC's performance, but don't think it'll be to the degree as previous comps.

 

Going a little more conservatively, without much time to analyze, 4M +/- .25M.

Glad I reverted from my original forecast, thinking surely the MTC wouldn't underperform as badly as I initially feared.. Not. Never again.

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, joselowe said:

People keep forgetting that the soundtrack for The Greatest Showman saved the movie. It was the best selling album worldwide of 2017. Most of these non musicals without a popular soundtrack can’t really be compared to The Greatest Showman

 

I'm just saying there's precedent. Wonka probably ate into upfront demand but there's nothing else new coming out for kids for two months, so I can see it having staying power just by virtue of being a timekiller that shuts them up for a bit.

 

I'm not expecting Greatest Showman legs, but it likely won't need that just to hit nine figures.

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by AniNate

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Sacto dark magic @Porthos

 

 

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Gonna stop tracking CBMs, all we need is Sacto for them. Awesome stuff @Porthos!!

 

At least my bullish numbers for Anyone But You and Migration were confirmed, was right on the money for the former. The Iron Claw though, good stuff! Way overperformed my predictions and numbers

 

[keysersoze123]

I did say 4.5m is definitely possible :-) it did better outside MTC1 than other DC flicks. But Sacto is definitely sufficient for SH movies :-) 

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Color Purple (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	130	973	3283	14689	22.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		530	414	16.14
MTC1:		1360	373	41.43
Marcus:		437	111	13.31
Alamo:		246	33	7.49
Other chains:		1240	456	37.77

 

Comps:

3.12x Hunger Games BoSS (THU): $17.93 Million

0.5x Barbenheimer (THU): $15.7 Million

12.63x Wish (TUE): $22.73 Million

8.09x Napoleon (TUE): $24.26 Million

2.42x MI7 (TUE): $16.97 Million

3.78x Paw Patrol (FRI OD): $25.69 Million

 

Average: $20.55 Million

 

Using the Thursday comps @M37 mentioned, plus a few of those Tuesday ones that might require less of an adjustment, from now on. Notable increase in PLFs and it continuing to underindex further at MTC1 versus other blockbusters

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Color Purple (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	130	443	3726	14689	25.37

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		573	43	15.38
MTC1:		1517	157	40.71
Marcus:		496	59	13.31
Alamo:		256	10	6.87
Other chains:		1457	217	39.1

 

Comps:

3x Hunger Games BoSS (THU): $17.22 Million

0.44x Barbenheimer (THU): $14.08 Million

12.46x Wish (TUE): $22.43 Million

7.36x Napoleon (TUE): $22.09 Million

2.45x MI7 (TUE): $17.13 Million

 

Average (no adjustments): $18.58 Million

 

Slowed down today, I think capacity is starting to become a big issue. This is the type of release where depending on where in town, a theater is either super packed or almost empty, so even though it says near 25% capacity that is really hiding the fact that some theaters are way more impacted than others (extreme case- one theater is at almost 85% capacity!). I don't really see it being able to keep up the pace it has been having due to this, but perhaps I am wrong.

[HummingLemon496]

7 hours ago, Relevation said:

The actuals did in fact, throw me for a curveball

 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

I did not post this yesterday

Color Purple MTC1 // As of yesterday evening

12/25 - 202301/559338 2530497.77 3952 shows

12/26 -56006/515813 713277.18 3546 shows

 

I am thinking 275K by the time shows start and probably 25m OD is in play !!!  but pace for 12/26 is about 1/4 of Christmas day sales and 12/27 is all about walkups. So this is a unique run from my perspective.