The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

On 1/31/2024 at 4:10 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
722	17	1353	53.36%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

315

1794

17.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

242

1388

17.44%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1192	38	18464	6.46%	13	89

 

1.416

Oppenheimer T-29

14.86M

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
742	20	1353	54.84%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

325

1794

18.12%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

250

1388

18.01%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1245	53	18464	6.74%	13	89

 

1.421

Oppenheimer T-28

14.92M

[Inceptionzq]

On 1/31/2024 at 4:11 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2 [+2 days of sales]

T-29 Thursday

159 Showings

5102

+475

24359

ATP:

19.00

2.006

Oppenheimer T-29

21.07M

 

T-30 Friday

243 Showings

5732

+516

36761

ATP:

18.32

2.582

Oppenheimer T-30

58.14M

 

T-31 Saturday

257 Showings

6717

+711

38820

ATP:

17.73

2.412

Oppenheimer T-31

64.03M

 

T-32 Sunday

234 Showings

3282

+499

35111

ATP:

18.22

2.257

Oppenheimer T-32

52.34M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-28 Thursday

161 Showings

5318

+216

24573

ATP:

18.97

2.002

Oppenheimer T-28

21.02M

 

T-29 Friday

243 Showings

5988

+256

36761

ATP:

18.27

2.571

Oppenheimer T-29

57.89M

 

T-30 Saturday

257 Showings

7060

+343

38820

ATP:

17.67

2.434

Oppenheimer T-30

64.61M

 

T-31 Sunday

234 Showings

3524

+242

35111

ATP:

18.18

2.208

Oppenheimer T-31

51.20M

[Inceptionzq]

On 1/31/2024 at 4:13 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-29 Thursday

104 Showings

594

+57

17509

1.305

Oppenheimer T-29

13.71M

 

T-30 Friday

163 Showings

562

+42

27763

1.965

Oppenheimer T-30

44.25M

 

T-31 Saturday

168 Showings

498

+45

28739

2.465

Oppenheimer T-31

64.72M

 

T-32 Sunday

162 Showings

136

+22

27840

1.511

Oppenheimer T-32

35.04M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-28 Thursday

104 Showings

641

+47

17509

1.330

Oppenheimer T-28

13.96M

 

T-29 Friday

163 Showings

603

+41

27763

1.908

Oppenheimer T-29

42.97M

 

T-30 Saturday

168 Showings

550

+52

28742

2.582

Oppenheimer T-30

67.78M

 

T-31 Sunday

162 Showings

141

+5

27840

1.424

Oppenheimer T-31

33.03M

[keysersoze123]

On 1/28/2024 at 8:29 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 19734/55434 402623.92 181 shows +872

Previews(T-32) - 30858/511607 631727.38 2545 shows +3675
Friday - 24319/789991 498565.89 3968 shows +3741
Saturday - 24241/832248 477980.37 4185 shows +3826

 

Another good day for sure. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 20939/55434 425011.65 181 shows

Previews - 35497/512374 721086.21 2553 shows

Friday - 29155/791604 593488.57 3981 shows

Saturday - 29314/833989 572965.42 4199 shows

 

Not sure if it has hit bottom of the curve. But overall numbers are still very good.

 

 

[Eric S'ennui]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-dune-part-two/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/1/24)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
2/9/2024	Lisa Frankenstein	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$18,000,000 – $39,000,000	Focus Features
2/9/2024	Out of Darkness			Bleecker Street
2/9/2024	Turning Red			Disney / Pixar
2/14/2024	Bob Marley: One Love	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000	$47,000,000 – $86,000,000	Paramount Pictures
2/14/2024	Madame Web	$20,000,000 – $29,000,000	$56,000,000 – $95,000,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
2/15/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6	$3,000,000 – $7,000,000	$4,500,000 – $11,000,000	Fathom Events
2/23/2024	Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training	$14,000,000 – $23,000,000	$25,000,000 – $51,000,000	Sony Pictures / Crunchyroll
2/23/2024	Drive-Away Dolls			Focus Features
2/23/2024	Ordinary Angels	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000	$27,000,000 – $46,000,000	Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
2/23/2024	Tenet (2024 Re-Issue)			Warner Bros. Pictures
2/29/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8			Angel Studios
3/1/2024	Dune: Part Two	$50,000,000 – $75,000,000	$125,000,000 – $195,000,000	Warner Bros. Pictures

[M37]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

Just so you know, I felt bad calling on you by name, but I do love those sweet, sweet charts!

 

In all seriousness though, this is very helpful. Valentine's Day is one of the weirder variables.  When I realized how few situations that we've had like this, it made me realize how challenging that multiplier guess is, but I think you've pinned down a solid range.

Eh, you can always tag me, and sometimes I can figure something out, and others I’ll just be 

 

[leoh]

51 minutes ago, Eric Argylle said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-dune-part-two/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/1/24)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
2/9/2024	Lisa Frankenstein	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$18,000,000 – $39,000,000	Focus Features
2/9/2024	Out of Darkness			Bleecker Street
2/9/2024	Turning Red			Disney / Pixar
2/14/2024	Bob Marley: One Love	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000	$47,000,000 – $86,000,000	Paramount Pictures
2/14/2024	Madame Web	$20,000,000 – $29,000,000	$56,000,000 – $95,000,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
2/15/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6	$3,000,000 – $7,000,000	$4,500,000 – $11,000,000	Fathom Events
2/23/2024	Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training	$14,000,000 – $23,000,000	$25,000,000 – $51,000,000	Sony Pictures / Crunchyroll
2/23/2024	Drive-Away Dolls			Focus Features
2/23/2024	Ordinary Angels	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000	$27,000,000 – $46,000,000	Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
2/23/2024	Tenet (2024 Re-Issue)			Warner Bros. Pictures
2/29/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8			Angel Studios
3/1/2024	Dune: Part Two	$50,000,000 – $75,000,000	$125,000,000 – $195,000,000	Warner Bros. Pictures

Regarding Dune (50-75M range/125-195M) this matches what I’m noticing in AMC NY Theaters: Dune sells really well for IMAX formats but it’s not that great in non PLFs. If you look at an IMAX theater you’ll think wow Dune is close to Oppenheimer, however when you look at non-PLFs you realise it is still far away from doing anything close to Oppenheimer success.

 

I remember Variety saying “rival studios are projecting Dune to have potential for 1 billion ww”. Lol

 

it’s one of my favo movies coming out this year, but I’m aware that it does have that pop culture appeal to go even close to 1 Bi. 

Edited February 2 by leoh

[iEnri]

4 minutes ago, leoh said:

Regarding Dune this matches what I’m noticing in the NY AMC Theaters: Dune sells really well in IMAX formats but not that great in non PLFs. If you look at IMAX theater you’ll think wow Dune is close to Oppenheimer, however when you look at non-PLFs you realise it is still   Far away from doing anything close to Oppenheimer success.

 

I remember Variety saying “rival studios are projecting Dune to have potential to make 1 billion”. Lol

 

it’s one of my favo movies to coning out this year, but I’m aware that it does have that pop culture appeal to go even close to 1 Bi. 

It doesnt need 1B, it can get to 700M and it will be amazing. Spiderverse also didnt need 1B.

Edited February 2 by iEnri

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	2203	93918	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

123

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

612

*50 seats sold 

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(1.159x) of Blue Beetle $3.83M 

(0.656x) of AquaMan 2 $2.95M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.39M

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	2264	93918	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

61

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

669

*57 seats sold 

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(1.230x) of Blue Beetle $4.06M 

(0.698x) of AquaMan 2 $3.14M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.60M

[joselowe]

23 minutes ago, leoh said:

Regarding Dune (50-75M range/125-195M) this matches what I’m noticing in AMC NY Theaters: Dune sells really well for IMAX formats but it’s not that great in non PLFs. If you look at an IMAX theater you’ll think wow Dune is close to Oppenheimer, however when you look at non-PLFs you realise it is still far away from doing anything close to Oppenheimer success.

 

I remember Variety saying “rival studios are projecting Dune to have potential for 1 billion ww”. Lol

 

it’s one of my favo movies coming out this year, but I’m aware that it does have that pop culture appeal to go even close to 1 Bi. 

This is going to sound silly but I think once Zendaya and Timmy start promoting, it box office numbers will be a lot higher. These numbers currently are based off just the Dune fanbase, but Zendaya and Timmy are media darlings with huge fan bases and I'm sure the publicity of this will be amazing. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3412	104695	3.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

117

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1424

*35 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-29

 

(1.465x) of Oppenheimer $15.38M 

(0.930x) of Indy 5 $6.69M 

(2.865x) of Wonka $10.03M 

(2.278x) of Aquaman 2 $10.25M 

Comps AVG: $10.59M

 

Just echoing what others have said...Kind of at the bottom of the U curve here

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-28

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3453	104695	3.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

41

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1461

*37 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-28

 

(1.452x) of Oppenheimer $15.25M 

(0.931x) of Indy 5 $6.70M 

(2.656x) of Wonka $9.30M 

(2.190x) of Aquaman 2 $9.86M 

Comps AVG: $10.28M

 

Slowed down a lot. Thinking this will have a good amount of fan rush to it. 

[keysersoze123]

@Shawn Robbins is being conservative about Dune 2 and that is ok. I think once the reviews are out and closer to release, regular shows will fill up. Oppenheimer went through the same. initial sales were all Imax/70mm. 

[leoh]

21 minutes ago, iEnri said:

It doesnt need 1B, it can get to 700M and it will be amazing. Spiderverse also didnt need 1B.

I have no doubt it’ll be a great movie, I’ll be there on day one for sure, but I’m aware it doesn’t have a big pop culture appeal. From what I’m seeing so far in pre sales, and considering it’s not a big deal neither in China nor in Japan, but it’s quite popular in Europe, I’d say it’ll def get a bigger box office, but not as much of a crazy growth like Spider-Verse 2. So I’d say a ww box office closer to Wonka rather than Spider-Verse 2. So between 550M and 600M.

[Porthos]

People can say I'm taking crazy pills and that's fine, but I still maintain what is going to really move the needle among the GA/casuals is early WOM/social media buzz about the action quota of the film once people actually start seeing it.

 

The first Dune had very respectable legs (2.64x) even with it being on HBO Max on Day and Date. The only real common criticism against it was that it was as dry as the desert it was set in.  If, if, the word gets out that there is more action in this film I really do think that will cause a bump in sales.  

 

The other point I have to make is... 30+ days of pre-sales is a looooooong time and that is just going to lead to a bottoming out of sales (I tend to think we're still in the deceleration phase of it, FWIW).   Yes, there are exceptions like Barbie which didn't have much of a u-curve to speak of or films like The Little Mermaid which decided to goose sales around the T-18 or so stage.  But for the most part, we're in the marathon portion of the run where there just isn't gonna be much to speak of when it comes to ticket sales analysis. 

 

Hell, I'm actually a little bit surprised at the staying power of Dune: Part Two in that it didn't just fall off a cliff after the first couple of days of sales.  Has been a decline, but it's been more of a gentle slope than I expected.

 

NFL advertising is probably mucking up analysis here a bit as well if it cannibalized sales from folks who were going to get them within a few days and then got reminded to do it last Sunday (that is, a bump on sales on Sun/Mon at the expensive of mooted sales on Tue/Wed/Thr/Fri). 

 

Speaking of the NFL, the upcoming Super Bowl might just be the most watched in USA history (by number, not percentage) given the two teams involved (plus Taylor Smith).  Gonna be a whoooooole lot of eyeballs seeing a mooted Dune: Part Two trailer/tv spot which should indeed goose sales... though again, perhaps at the partial expense of the next few days.

 

Anyway, D2 is doing very well in my mind.  The only real question I personally have is how Teh Casuals will feel about it, and that we really have little way of knowing until we get much closer to release.

Edited February 2 by Porthos

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

People can say I'm taking crazy pills and that's fine, but I still maintain what is going to really move the needle among the GA/casuals is early WOM/social media buzz about the action quota of the film once people actually start seeing it.

 

The first Dune had very respectable legs (2.64x) even with it being on HBO Max on Day and Date. The only real common criticism against it was that it was as dry as the desert it was set in.  If, if, the word gets out that there is more action in this film I really do think that will cause a bump in sales.  

 

The other point I have to make is... 30+ days of pre-sales is a looooooong time and that is just going to lead to a bottoming out of sales (I tend to think we're still in the deceleration phase of it, FWIW).   Yes, there are exceptions like Barbie which didn't have much of a u-curve to speak of or films like The Little Mermaid which decided to goose sales around the T-18 or so stage.  But for the most part, we're in the marathon portion of the run where there just isn't gonna be much to speak of when it comes to ticket sales analysis. 

 

Hell, I'm actually a little bit surprised at the staying power of Dune: Part Two in that it didn't just fall off a cliff after the first couple of days of sales.  Has been a decline, but it's been more of a gentle slope than I expected.

 

NFL advertising is probably mucking up analysis here a bit as well if it cannibalized sales from folks who were going to get them within a few days and then got reminded to do it last Sunday (that is, a bump on sales on Sun/Mon at the expensive of mooted sales on Tue/Wed/Thr/Fri). 

 

Speaking of the NFL, the upcoming Super Bowl might just be the most watched in USA history (by number, not percentage) given the two teams involved (plus Taylor Smith).  Gonna be a whoooooole lot of eyeballs seeing a mooted Dune: Part Two trailer/tv spot which should indeed goose sales... though again, perhaps at the partial expense of the next few days.

 

Anyway, D2 is doing very well in my mind.  The only real question I personally have is how Teh Casuals will feel about it, and that we really have little way of knowing until we get much closer to release.

Yeah the movie is still 4 weeks away and the casuals will not even focus on it  until a week or two before it comes out. 

[TheFlatLannister]

Argylle is straight up imploding...

 

Walkups are pacing worse than Night Swim and the comp is not at $1.7M!

[DAJK]

Yep, not to pile on to an already-dead horse, but Argylle has pretty much had zero walkups today.

 

The 5:30 show ended with just as many tickets as it had sold last night. The main 6:30 IMAX show is at 3 tickets more than it was at 7:30 this morning. Late evenings are at nothing lmao.

[ViewerAnon]

38 minutes ago, Porthos said:

People can say I'm taking crazy pills and that's fine, but I still maintain what is going to really move the needle among the GA/casuals is early WOM/social media buzz about the action quota of the film once people actually start seeing it.

 

It's been screening for a little while, Warner Bros is very confident in it. I just don't know how much appeal there is for people who don't already love the first one.

[keysersoze123]

On 1/30/2024 at 1:52 PM, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Friday(2/16)

Madame Web - 4416/575119 72280.38 2673 shows

Bob Marley - 2599/305767 37315.71 1850 shows

 

Marley number is atrocious if its on sale for a week. MW is also bad but I still expect it to win the weekend but neither movie look like a breakout to me. 

MTC1 Friday(2/16)

Madame Web - 5288/575728 87983.40 2677 shows

Bob Marley - 3348/308975 48539.78 1875 shows

 

2+ day later, pace is putrid for friday for both movies. 

 

[abracadabra1998]

26 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Argylle is straight up imploding...

 

Walkups are pacing worse than Night Swim and the comp is not at $1.7M!

Worth mentioning that Argyle has PLFs propping it up versus Night Swim but yeah…. Yikes