The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[MysteryMovieMogul]

9 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

I still don't think it's gonna pull a DARK KNIGHT and make 2.5x its predecessor's gross but a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes with an 8.7/10 average for a big spectacle movie is going to convince a fair few people to give it a chance. 

Oh totally, this film will do better than the predecessor, which came out during a pandemic, and also the same day on streaming.

 

But also, this is what the 2:25 showing looks like for me at my local theater on March 1:


EDIT: And in the Dolby theater (our theaters version of Premium), there's a 11:45 AM showing with only 6 seats unavailable, as opposed to the above's 9 unavailable seats.

Edited February 21 by MysteryMovieMogul

[keysersoze123]

Just now, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Oh totally, this film will do better than the predisessor, which came out during a pandemic, and also the same day on streaming.

 

But also, this is what the 2:25 showing looks like for me at my local theater on March 1:

That is a regular 2d show on a working day. It would be better by the time show times start. Its presales are perfectly fine for 9 days to release. We have sufficient data for the same in this thread. Anecodotal or single show information is irrelevant. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is a regular 2d show on a working day. It would be better by the time show times start. Its presales are perfectly fine for 9 days to release. We have sufficient data for the same in this thread. Anecodotal or single show information is irrelevant. 

This far out from both Oppenheimer and Barbie, these same theaters were booked solid. I know, again it's anecdotal, and I hope I'm wrong and these theaters are an anomaly, but I still think there's overprediction happening.

EDIT: The 9:55 PM Friday showing:
 

Edited February 21 by MysteryMovieMogul

[Last Man Standing]

3 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

This far out from both Oppenheimer and Barbie, these same theaters were booked solid. I know, again it's anecdotal, and I hope I'm wrong and these theaters are an anomaly, but I still think there's overprediction happening.

EDIT: The 9:55 PM Friday showing:
 

Do you understand that the predictions that do exist do what you're doing, counting ticket sales, on a much bigger scale?

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

This far out from both Oppenheimer and Barbie, these same theaters were booked solid. I know, again it's anecdotal, and I hope I'm wrong and these theaters are an anomaly, but I still think there's overprediction happening.

EDIT: The 9:55 PM Friday showing:
 

it still does not matter. its just regular digital 2d show. It will fill close to release day. Barbenheimmer were more show constrained and started filling 2d shows by this point. Dune is not constrained. Al ready its release is bigger than Oppenheimer and it has all the Imax and PLF unlike Barbenheimer. Its presales at this point is still ahead of Oppenheimer though pace is lower as of yesterday. I expect it to amp up now that the reviews are out and early imax shows will build WOM as well. Its doing fantastic for the genre with not exactly huge built in fanbase. 

[Eric Lasagna]

Quorum Updates

Imaginary T-16: 30.86%

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-16: 64.1%

Love Lies Bleeding T-23: 17.41%

The Strangers: Chapter 1 T-86: 26.24%

Bad Boys 4 T-114: 45.11%

The Forge T-184: 19.67%

 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Hashira Training T-2: 24.07% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Drive-Away Dolls T-2: 18.47% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Ordinary Angels T-2: 27.29% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-37: 45.6% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 95% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 59% chance of 40M, 36% chance of 50M, 32% chance of 60M, 18% chance of 90M, 14% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 60% chance of 50M, 40% chance of 60M

[keysersoze123]

We dont have weekday BO thread. WTF is happening to Lisa Frankenstein?

 

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
-	(1)	Bob Marley: One Love	Paramount Pi…	$2,915,750	-41%		3,539	$824	$54,420,777	7
-	(8)	Lisa Frankenstein	Focus Features	$2,779,555	+579%	+502%	3,143	$884	$10,914,635	12
-	(2)	Madame Web	Sony Pictures	$1,725,000	-31%		4,013	$430	$27,780,875	7

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

This far out from both Oppenheimer and Barbie, these same theaters were booked solid.

 

And Barbenheimer opened to a combined $33m (well $32.8) on its preview night and had a combined OW of 244m.

 

Not exactly a good comparison here as right now the mid-point of Dune: Part Two projections might be around the 80m OW mark (more or less). 

 

Now I do get what you're saying about the GA and there is an... inertia of First Impressions that has to be overcome.  At the same time 97/8.7 out of the gate is exactly the sort of eye-popping RT score that has a chance of resetting expectations/moving some fence sitters (hell, I was expecting a very high 80s/low 90s so even this RT score makes me arch my eyebrow a tad).

 

That being said, this might, and I do mean might, be a case where it shows up more on legs than on OW, as it might take time for WOM to filter around and people are ground down by incessant evangelizing from Dune fanatics as the raves about how different D2 is from D1 get spread around.

 

So I suppose the debate really is: How much will this move the needle?  And if so, how quickly?

 

On the one hand, we joke about Tomato Law on this board quite a bit, but I do think it is generally true that a great RT score can (can not will) give a strong boost to ticket sales.  On the other hand, was only about nine months ago that another highly anticipated film came out to stellar reviews raving about the film's action scenes that didn't move the needle much at all.  On the third hand, I've been staging a mini-campaign to combat recency bias lately and I do think there is a slight difference between great RT scores moving the needle on a seventh installment of a franchise and the second installment.

 

On the fourth hand...  Maybe the first impressions for the first Dune film really are that firm and it's gonna take a hell of a lot to shift them.

 

All I can say is that very high 90s on RT and raving about the action and comparing/contrasting the differences between the two films is exactly what needs to be done to bring the horse to the water.  The open question is: Will the horse drink the water?  

 

Find out soon enuf, I suppose.

Edited February 21 by Porthos

[MysteryMovieMogul]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

And Barbenheimer opened to a combined $33m (well $32.8) on its preview night and had a combined OW of 244m.

 

Not exactly a good comparison here as right now the mid-point of Dune: Part Two projections might be around the 80m OW mark (more or less). 

 

Now I do get what you're saying about the GA and there is an... inertia of First Impressions that has to be overcome.  At the same time 97/8.7 out of the gate is exactly the sort of eye-popping RT score that has a chance of resetting expectations/moving some fence sitters (hell, I was expecting a very high 80s/low 90s so even this RT score makes me arch my eyebrow a tad).

 

That being said, this might, and I do mean might, be a case where it shows up more on legs than on OW, as it might take time for WOM to filter around and people are ground down by incessant evangelizing from Dune fanatics as the raves about how different D2 is from D1 get spread around.

 

So I suppose the debate really is: How much will this move the needle?  And if so, how quickly?

 

On the one hand, we joke about Tomato Law on this board quite a bit, but I do think it is generally true that a great RT score can (can not will) give a strong boost to ticket sales.  On the other hand, was only about nine months about that another highly anticipated film came out to stellar reviews raving about the film's action scenes that didn't move the needle much at all.  On the third hand, I've been staging a mini-campaign to combat recency bias lately and I do think there is a slight difference between great RT scores moving the needle on a seventh installment of a franchise and the second installment.

 

On the fourth hand...  Maybe the first impressions for the first Dune film really are that firm and it's gonna take a hell of a lot to shift them.

 

All I can say is that very high 90s on RT and raving about the action and comparing/contrasting the differences between the two films is exactly what needs to be done to bring the horse to the water.  The open question is: Will the horse drink the water?  

 

Find out soon enuf, I suppose.

I mean, this film is going to do really well. I think that's guaranteed at this point.

 

I just don't think this film is going to surprise by how well it does.

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

We dont have weekday BO thread. WTF is happening to Lisa Frankenstein?

 

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
-	(1)	Bob Marley: One Love	Paramount Pi…	$2,915,750	-41%		3,539	$824	$54,420,777	7
-	(8)	Lisa Frankenstein	Focus Features	$2,779,555	+579%	+502%	3,143	$884	$10,914,635	12
-	(2)	Madame Web	Sony Pictures	$1,725,000	-31%		4,013	$430	$27,780,875	7

The Cole Sprouse fans finally arrived en masse. Maybe it was his birthday?

 

JK. The Numbers has now fixed that number. Lisa F earned $278,625 rather than $2.7796 M on Tuesday. Just a small bad.

 

Btw, can only administrators start threads like a weekday BO thread? It would be nice to have one, but I'm still pretty new here so I don't want to be presumptuous.

[Porthos]

Just now, MysteryMovieMogul said:

I mean, this film is going to do really well. I think that's guaranteed at this point.

 

I just don't think this film is going to surprise by how well it does.

 

Well then, what would be a "surprise"?  100m OW?  300m DOM total?  Hell, would $250m DOM be a surprise since that is in fact greater than 2.5x Dune DOM?

 

Part of the problem, if not all of the problem, I have with the Expectations Game surrounding Dune: Part Two is that it is releasing in such a different environment/different way than Dune was (not to mention it apparently being a pretty different film) that I'm really not sure what would be a surprise TO ME.

 

Someone comes from the future and tells me that D2 did 90/325 (OW/DOM Total), I'd say "Yeah I could see that happening".  Someone comes from the future and tells me that D2 did 75/190 (OW/DOM Total), I'd also say "Yeah, I can see that happening".  

 

Just such a wiiiiiiide range of possibilities that I personally don't know what would qualify as "surprising".

 

VERY IMPORTANT NOTE BENE:

When I day something like 90/325 wouldn't surprise me it's only because I can see the potential for it to absolutely catch fire.  But the stars would have to align exactly right and it's not something I'm expecting.  At all. 

 

I suppose I am saying it'd have the be a really big outlier to actually surprise me. 

 

[Grand Cine]

https://deadline.com/2024/02/bob-marley-one-love-drive-away-dolls-demon-slayer-box-office-1235833436/

 

One Love : 15M ( -45% , good hold if it's this )

Madame Web : 6,8M (-55% , i expect a much bigger drop)

Demon Slayer : 7-8M

Ordinary Angels : 5-7M

Drive Away Dolls : 4M

Edited February 21 by Grand Cine

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

Box Office Pro's weekend forecast is also posted:

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-demon-slayer-to-the-hashira-training-drive-away-dolls-and-ordinary-angels/

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 25	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Bob Marley: One Love	Paramount Pictures	$19,400,000	$78,300,000	-32%
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training	Sony Pictures & Crunchyroll	$9,800,000	$9,800,000	NEW
Madame Web	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$6,300,000	$35,500,000	-59%
Ordinary Angels	Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company	$5,500,000	$5,500,000	NEW
Migration	Universal Pictures & Illumination	$3,100,000	$120,600,000	-19%
Argylle	Universal Pictures	$3,000,000	$41,700,000	-38%
Wonka	Warner Bros. Pictures	$2,700,000	$214,700,000	-23%
Drive-Away Dolls	Focus Features	$2,300,000	$2,300,000	NEW
The Beekeeper	MGM	$2,000,000	$63,100,000	-38%
The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6	Fathom Events	$1,600,000	$7,400,000	-56%

[misterpepp]

Looking like Arthur the King will be on sale Feb 28.

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/20/2024 at 3:36 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1055	19	1353	77.97%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

537

1794

29.93%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

497

2137

23.26%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2365	37	20072	11.78%	13	100

 

1.293	Oppenheimer T-9	13.58M
2.616	Indiana Jones T-9	18.84M

0.644	Ant-Man 3 T-9	11.27M
0.763	Avatar 2 T-9	12.97M
0.433	Thor L&T T-9	12.57M
0.851	Batman T-9*	18.37M
2.075	Dune Part 1 T-9	10.58M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday Previews only

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1094	39	1353	80.86%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

548

2092

26.20%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

510

2137

23.87%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2517	152	20904	12.04%	13	107

 

1.276	Oppenheimer T-8	13.40M
2.701	Indiana Jones T-8	19.44M

0.655	Ant-Man 3 T-8	11.46M
0.758	Avatar 2 T-8	12.89M
0.446	Thor L&T T-8	12.94M

2.055

Dune Part 1 T-8

10.48M

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/20/2024 at 3:39 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-9 Thursday

192 Showings

9888

+277

27775

ATP:

17.96

0.654	Barbie T-9	14.59M
1.862	Oppenheimer T-9	19.55M
1.888	Indiana Jones T-9	13.59M

1.992	Avatar T-9	33.87M
0.756	Thor L&T T-9	21.91M
1.021	Batman T-9*	17.96M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-10 Friday

265 Showings

11526

+344

38894

ATP:

17.64

0.752	Barbie T-10	36.26M
1.909	Oppenheimer T-10	42.98M
2.445	Indiana Jones T-10	41.07M

1.751	Avatar T-10	63.38M
1.042	Thor L&T T-10	42.25M
1.174	Batman T-10	41.20M

 

T-11 Saturday

277 Showings

13508

+370

40712

ATP:

17.10

0.830	Barbie T-11	39.66M
1.846	Oppenheimer T-11	49.00M
2.962	Indiana Jones T-11	55.03M

1.802	Avatar T-11	79.89M
1.294	Thor L&T T-11	54.50M
1.405	Batman T-11	60.78M

 

T-12 Sunday

249 Showings

8953

+292

36440

ATP:

17.15

0.737	Barbie T-12	32.19M
1.877	Oppenheimer T-12	43.54M
3.337	Indiana Jones T-12	60.40M

1.955	Avatar T-12	71.49M
1.548	Thor L&T T-12	50.32M
2.126	Batman T-12	72.57M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-8 Thursday

202 Showings

10412

+524

28770

ATP:

17.92

0.638	Barbie T-8	14.23M
1.853	Oppenheimer T-8	19.45M
1.899	Indiana Jones T-8	13.68M

1.951	Avatar T-8	33.16M
0.770	Thor L&T T-8	22.34M

 

T-9 Friday

265 Showings

11987

+461

38894

ATP:

17.59

0.726	Barbie T-9	35.01M
1.838	Oppenheimer T-9	41.38M
2.449	Indiana Jones T-9	41.15M

1.707	Avatar T-9	61.79M
1.044	Thor L&T T-9	42.32M

 

T-10 Saturday

277 Showings

13984

+476

40712

ATP:

17.08

0.806	Barbie T-10	38.54M
1.753	Oppenheimer T-10	46.53M
2.938	Indiana Jones T-10	54.58M

1.737	Avatar T-10	77.00M
1.287	Thor L&T T-10	54.19M

 

T-11 Sunday

249 Showings

9341

+388

36440

ATP:

17.10

0.713	Barbie T-11	31.17M
1.769	Oppenheimer T-11	41.03M
3.307	Indiana Jones T-11	59.85M

1.850	Avatar T-11	67.66M
1.543	Thor L&T T-11	50.16M

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/20/2024 at 3:40 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-9 Thursday

104 Showings

1544

+85

17525

1.066	Oppenheimer T-9	11.20M
1.406	Indiana Jones T-9	10.12M

 

T-10 Friday

162 Showings

2150

+128

27705

1.315	Oppenheimer T-10	29.61M
2.664	Indiana Jones T-10	44.76M

 

T-11 Saturday

168 Showings

2057

+148

28835

1.700	Oppenheimer T-11	44.63M
4.874	Indiana Jones T-11	90.57M

 

T-12 Sunday

166 Showings

768

+89

28444

1.200	Oppenheimer T-12	27.83M
4.439	Indiana Jones T-12	80.35M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-8 Thursday

105 Showings

1647

+103

17720

1.002	Oppenheimer T-8	10.52M
1.455	Indiana Jones T-8	10.48M

 

T-9 Friday

163 Showings

2320

+170

27893

1.184	Oppenheimer T-9	26.67M
2.691	Indiana Jones T-9	45.22M

 

T-10 Saturday

169 Showings

2234

+177

29021

1.502	Oppenheimer T-10	39.44M
4.815	Indiana Jones T-10	89.46M

 

T-11 Sunday

171 Showings

902

+134

28732

1.178	Oppenheimer T-11	27.31M
4.533	Indiana Jones T-11	82.04M

[TheFlatLannister]

4 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

But you still saw the first one, and you're on a box office forum talking movies. I didn't love the first Dune either, but I'm also still going to see Part 2. But also, I'm on a box office forum talking about movies.

 

General Audiences? I don't hear much buzz about this film in the same way I heard buzz about Barbie or even Oppenheimer. This film will do much better than the first, but I don't think it's going to be the surprise hit of the year like some are predicting/hoping.

Still not sure why Dune 2 is being compared to Oppy and Barbie. It's a lot harder to convince the GA to see a sequel than it is to see original films like Oppenheimer or Barbie. 

 

ATSV is probably a much better comparison in terms of box office run

[Tinalera]

On 2/20/2024 at 5:01 PM, keysersoze123 said:

@Tinalera does track Toronto along with few other cities. She did post an update few days ago. 

Not as much as Id like to track these days. But yes, right now Im doing Vancouver, Calgary Toronto and Montreal. Used to do east coast but there doesn't seem to be much of an interest (not to mention tracking Nova Scotia, New Brunswick NewFoundland can get VERY spotty and weird with what presales they do.

 

Speaking of tracking

 

Dune Part 2

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

Thurs March 29 and Fri Mar 1 (t-9 Friday)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	4	30	927	4617	5544	0.1672
	Fri	4	28	1337	4881	6218	0.2150
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	30	689	5333	2671	0.2579
	Fri	4	27	935	2500	3435	0.2721

 

 

I track 4 theatres in Vancouver and 4 in Calgary (also 4 in toronto and Montreal) to try keep and keep things somewhat consisten. Sadly dont get to track as much as Id like or as consistently as Id like, real life and all. But I try and post where I can

Edited February 21 by Tinalera

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/19/2024 at 4:40 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	42	54	466	5976	7.8

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		147	11	31.55
MTC1:		272	37	58.37
Marcus:		117	10	25.11
Alamo:		13	0	2.79
Other chains:		64	7	13.73

 

Comps:

0.3x Boy and the Heron: $720k

0.47x Godzilla Minus One: $980k

0.71x Dragon Ball Super Hero: $2.82 MIllion

 

Average: $1.51 Million

 

I'm inclined to get rid of the Heron comp, that went bonkers here and that had a bunch of EA which skews things quite a bit. Still quite a bit of range between Godzilla and Dragon Ball lol

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	58	93	559	7810	7.16

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		170	23	30.41
MTC1:		307	35	54.92
Marcus:		139	22	24.87
Alamo:		13	0	2.33
Other chains:		100	36	17.89

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	N/A
3-Day:	35.68

 

Comps (3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.33x Boy and the Heron: $780k (67%, number is messed up because it's only for Thursday)

0.48x Godzilla Minus One: $1 Million (46%, number is messed up because it's only for Thursday)

0.59x Dragon Ball Super Hero: $2.36 MIllion (50%)

 

Average: $1.38 Million

 

All these comps are bad for various reasons (BatH and Godzilla are different genres, and EA breakdown was never provided; Dragon Ball includes less theaters than the ones I currently track). So I'm not pleased at all with this track. I'll go super broad with a $1.5 Million, +/- 0.3 prediction, but this one is mostly for future comps.

Edited February 21 by abracadabra1998