The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

$1.6-1.65M pre-sales for Dune 2 shows today in US. Canada another $175K+. Total $1.75-1.8M, final shall be close to $2M.

Are you accounting for all the shows. Good Ol' Luiz said 406 screenings in US. Canada supposedly has around 100 Imax screens but not all off them will be playing the movie. 

 

 

 

Edited February 26 by keysersoze123

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are you accounting for all the shows. Good Ol' Luiz said 406 screenings in US. Canada supposedly has around 100 Imax screens but not all off them will be playing the movie. 

 

 

 

 

I'm not sure how you'd get to 100 IMAX screens in Canada, unless you start counting the types you get in museums and such playing short nature films.

 

In the broader GTA radius, I count 9 playing Dune in MTC4. I'd venture to say there's probably around 30-35 nationwide if I was to extrapolate. Which would probably align to that $175K figure from Jat.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are you accounting for all the shows. Good Ol' Luiz said 406 screenings in US. Canada supposedly has around 100 Imax screens but not all off them will be playing the movie. 

 

 

 

406 is NA. Per last IMAX report I found there were 360 IMAX cinemas in United States and 40 in Canada.

Edited February 26 by charlie Jatinder

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/21/2024 at 10:52 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Imaginary (Day 1 *kinda*, T-15):

Day: T-15	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	21	10	10	1948	0.51

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		10	10	100
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.71x Night Swim: $1.04 Million

0.32x Thanksgiving: $325k

 

Obviously at 10 tickets sold, do not take any comps seriously. Just wanted to get sheets set up. Also I know it's not a true Day 1 since it went on sale last night, but it's within 24 hours, soooooo it counts? Next update on Sunday, T-11.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Imaginary (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	23	6	20	2074	0.96

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		18	10	90
Marcus:		2	0	10
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Comps:*

1.25x ISS: Never reported, 1.25x of total FRI number is ~1.58 Million)

0.42x Thanksgiving: $420k

0.19x Exorcist Believer: $530k

 

Average (sans I.S.S): $475k

 

*At low numbers like these, there is high degree of variance. Take comps with a big grain of salt

[DAJK]

FWIW, for the theater that I track that had both Wednesday early access for The Batman as well as Dune shows tonight, Dune was 70% higher than The Batman did for its early access on Wednesday. 

 

Mind you, this is Canada, where @charlie Jatinder has already said Dune will overindex. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/22/2024 at 10:06 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	30	104	10441	1

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		6	2	5.77
MTC1:		69	16	66.35
Marcus:		9	2	8.65
Alamo:		5	0	4.81
Other chains:		21	12	20.19

 

Comps:

0.54x Wonka: $1.9 Million

0.59x Wish (w/ EA): $1.36 Million

0.65x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $2.02 Million

0.31x TMNT (w/ EA): $1.69 Million

 

Average: $1.74 Million

 

Slowly rising against comps.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	33	137	10441	1.31

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		6	0	4.38
MTC1:		86	17	62.77
Marcus:		11	2	8.03
Alamo:		7	2	5.11
Other chains:		33	12	24.09

 

Comps:

0.57x Wonka: $1.98 Million

0.97x Wish (TUE): $1.75 Million

0.8x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $2.48 Million

2.69x Migration: $4.03 Million

2.74x Trolls (THU): $3.56 Million

 

Average: $2.76 Million

 

Added Trolls and Migration, which will be going down (Trolls had EA up until this update, and Migration was an original holiday release so very late sales), but the good news is the rest of the comps keep going up.

[keysersoze123]

32 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

406 is NA. Per last IMAX report I found there were 360 IMAX cinemas in United States and 40 in Canada.

Only thing is this is only Commercial multiplex locations. There are others like Museum Imaxes. Many are playing Dune 2 and those I checked all sold out their shows today. 

 

I am not even sure this list includes Jordan Imax which are stand alone theater located in MA. 

[abracadabra1998]

4 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-1 hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 18 theaters	86	474	3143	17059	18.42
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	108	1055	1082	97.5
TOTALS:	90	582	4198	18141	23.14

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2748	405	87.43
MTC1:		1521	195	48.39
Marcus:		333	53	10.59
Alamo:		399	44	12.69
Other chains:		890	182	28.32

(Chart is Thursday tickets only)

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.17x Oppy: $12.24 Million

2.27x The Marvels: $14.96 Million

1.62x MI7 (w/ EA): $14.6 Million

0.62x Barbie (w/ EA): $13.72 Million

 

Average: $13.88 Million

 

@TheFlatLannister I have been super busy so I wasn't able to answer your post, but basically The Marvels is the only MCU movie I have, no ATSV or anything else  I know it's not a good comp, but I have a serious dearth of good ones. Oppy expectedly dropping, I think the comp value will be under $10 Million at T-1.

 

As to the big city problem that @M37 has mentioned, I definitely agree. My market consistently overperforms for cinephile/ younger-skewing titles (KoFM, Dune, Hunger Games etc.). I am planning on expanding a bit of the theaters I track to include some greater Minnesota (maybe Mankato, Rochester, Duluth, or at least greater metro area) to address this, but that is a summer project for me. Teaching is just too much at the moment and this is the most I can do  

 

For EA Comps only, Dune 2 T-1 hour was at: 1.15x MI7 EA: $2.3M

 

That's the only useful EA comp I have, no other IMAX only I can think of

[dallas]

Dune: Part Two

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-4

Tickets Sold: 248(+7)

Growth: 3%

% PLF: 39%

5 theaters/29 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.580x) of Aquaman 2 - $7.07 Million

(1.722x) of Madame Web - $10.42 Million

(7.090x) of Argylle - $12.05 Million

COMPS AVG - $9.85 Million

 

Really meh growth today. I think the $90M dream is dead. And if this pace continues, then $85M might be off the table too. 

[TheFlatLannister]

8 minutes ago, dallas said:

Dune: Part Two

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-4

Tickets Sold: 248(+7)

Growth: 3%

% PLF: 39%

5 theaters/29 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.580x) of Aquaman 2 - $7.07 Million

(1.722x) of Madame Web - $10.42 Million

(7.090x) of Argylle - $12.05 Million

COMPS AVG - $9.85 Million

 

Really meh growth today. I think the $90M dream is dead. And if this pace continues, then $85M might be off the table too. 

So i'm not crazy...

 

This is kind of giving me Mi7 flashbacks during it's final stretch in presales. 

 

My hypothesis is that EA crippled previews sales for the past few days and we will see a nice bounce back tomorrow and on...If not then yeah don't know about $10M true Thursday and WB will probably report previews as $11M+ with EA baked in 

[SpiderByte]

Hey 80 mil ain't no slouch. People were guessing 70 as the optimistic guess a few months ago.

Edited February 26 by SpiderByte

[charlie Jatinder]

44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Only thing is this is only Commercial multiplex locations. There are others like Museum Imaxes. Many are playing Dune 2 and those I checked all sold out their shows today. 

 

I am not even sure this list includes Jordan Imax which are stand alone theater located in MA. 

I feel they would include all. Besides the list I sent you had 330+ shows available online including 7 non reserved seating. So 360 overall seems about right.

 

Besides we have official screen count from WB, ERC posted 406 North America locs, that also fits.

 

Edit: Ok yeah may be this is just commercial ones i.e. 360. Dune is playing in 366 if reducing 40 for Canada, so could be 6-10 extra IMAXes.

Edited February 26 by charlie Jatinder

[emoviefan]

17 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

So i'm not crazy...

 

This is kind of giving me Mi7 flashbacks during it's final stretch in presales. 

 

My hypothesis is that EA crippled previews sales for the past few days and we will see a nice bounce back tomorrow and on...If not then yeah don't know about $10M true Thursday and WB will probably report previews as $11M+ with EA baked in 

This is going to have a good to great opening that we all still be bored and underwhelmed by because we want more and to have a surprise we can  get excited about. Otherwise next weekend will just one big eh. 

[leoh]

58 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	33	137	10441	1.31

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		6	0	4.38
MTC1:		86	17	62.77
Marcus:		11	2	8.03
Alamo:		7	2	5.11
Other chains:		33	12	24.09

 

Comps:

0.57x Wonka: $1.98 Million

0.97x Wish (TUE): $1.75 Million

0.8x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $2.48 Million

2.69x Migration: $4.03 Million

2.74x Trolls (THU): $3.56 Million

 

Average: $2.76 Million

 

Added Trolls and Migration, which will be going down (Trolls had EA up until this update, and Migration was an original holiday release so very late sales), but the good news is the rest of the comps keep going up.

if it keeps this growth rate it can dream with 5M to 6M+ on Thursday, animations usually are backloaded.

Edited February 26 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 43763/55706 849027.99 182 shows +3073

Previews(T-5) - 80224/553651 1550141.86 2809 shows +3532

Friday -  88344/808399 1688691.96 4083 shows +6161

Saturday - 92163/849882 1682717.53 4296 shows +7972

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows Final - 47397/55706 914581.85 182 shows +3634

Previews(T-4) - 86404/554093 1659675.30 2814 shows +6180

Friday - 98029/808399 1860059.53 4083 shows +9685

Saturday - 102841/849882 1862895.15 4296 shows +10678

 

~2m ish early BO as expected. Not sure if studio would even separate it out or add it to previews or even just friday BO as some studios have done. Anyway headwind for thursday ticket sales is gone and I am expecting big acceleration tomorrow with double boost coming from early WOM from fan screenings. 

 

Based on saturday number and pace and expected show times, I am expecting 30m+ BO that day. Let us see how presales go next 2 days to confirm my expectations 🙂.  

[Grand Cine]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows Final - 47397/55706 914581.85 182 shows +3634

Previews(T-4) - 86404/554093 1659675.30 2814 shows +6180

Friday - 98029/808399 1860059.53 4083 shows +9685

Saturday - 102841/849882 1862895.15 4296 shows +10678

 

~2m ish early BO as expected. Not sure if studio would even separate it out or add it to previews or even just friday BO as some studios have done. Anyway headwind for thursday ticket sales is gone and I am expecting big acceleration tomorrow with double boost coming from early WOM from fan screenings. 

 

Based on saturday number and pace and expected show times, I am expecting 30m+ BO that day. Let us see how presales go next 2 days to confirm my expectations 🙂.  

So around 80-85M OW ?

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/24/2024 at 3:27 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1224	50	1353	90.47%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

642

2092

30.69%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

566

2137

26.49%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3002	164	20791	14.44%	13	106

 

0.871

Guardians T-5

15.25M

0.735

Avatar 2 T-5

12.49M

0.881	Batman T-5*	19.04M
2.016	Dune Part 1 T-5	10.28M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1297	73	1353	95.86%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

662

2092

31.64%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

617

2137

28.87%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3165	163	20902	15.14%	13	107

 

0.854

Guardians T-4

14.95M

0.728	Avatar 2 T-4	12.38M
0.474	Thor L&T T-4	13.74M

0.884	Batman T-4*	19.10M
1.992	Dune Part 1 T-4	10.16M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

 

Numbers are from earlier today when I usually count, just didn't have time to post.

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/24/2024 at 3:29 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-5 Thursday

206 Showings

11774

+412

29023

ATP:

17.77

0.978	Guardians T-5	17.12M
1.721	Avatar T-5	29.25M

0.974

Batman T-5*

17.15M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-6 Friday

272 Showings

13694

+544

39555

ATP:

17.45

1.258	Guardians T-6	38.48M
1.542	Avatar T-6	55.81M

1.094

Batman T-6

38.39M

 

T-7 Saturday

281 Showings

16036

+853

40920

ATP:

16.95

1.319	Guardians T-7	51.28M
1.622	Avatar T-7	71.91M

1.238

Batman T-7

53.55M

 

T-8 Sunday

253 Showings

10998

+636

36648

ATP:

16.97

1.667	Guardians T-8	52.38M
1.768	Avatar T-8	64.64M

1.819

Batman T-8

62.10M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-4 Thursday

206 Showings

12273

+499

29019

ATP:

17.72

0.974	Guardians T-4	17.04M
1.668	Avatar T-4	28.36M
0.725	Thor L&T T-4	21.03M

0.959	Batman T-4*	16.89M
3.021	Dune Part 1 T-4	15.41M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-5 Friday

272 Showings

14403

+709

39549

ATP:

17.38

1.223	Guardians T-5	37.44M
1.493	Avatar T-5	54.03M
0.999	Thor L&T T-5	40.53M

1.065	Batman T-5	37.37M
2.655	Dune Part 1 T-5	32.93M

 

T-6 Saturday

281 Showings

16895

+859

40918

ATP:

16.88

1.271	Guardians T-6	49.42M
1.579	Avatar T-6	70.00M
1.230	Thor L&T T-6	51.80M

1.186	Batman T-6	51.32M
3.195	Dune Part 1 T-6	43.83M

 

T-7 Sunday

253 Showings

11702

+704

36644

ATP:

16.89

1.555	Guardians T-7	48.86M
1.668	Avatar T-7	61.00M
1.481	Thor L&T T-7	48.14M

1.691	Batman T-7	57.74M
3.250	Dune Part 1 T-7	31.78M

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/24/2024 at 3:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-5 Thursday

109 Showings

2152

+186

18353

 

T-6 Friday

166 Showings

3218

+356

28340

 

T-7 Saturday

172 Showings

3113

+374

29454

 

T-8 Sunday

176 Showings

1369

+189

29220

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-4 Thursday

109 Showings

2326

+174

18363

 

T-5 Friday

167 Showings

3666

+448

28551

 

T-6 Saturday

172 Showings

3626

+513

29564

 

T-7 Sunday

176 Showings

1680

+311

29331

[Grand Cine]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows Final - 47397/55706 914581.85 182 shows +3634

Previews(T-4) - 86404/554093 1659675.30 2814 shows +6180

Friday - 98029/808399 1860059.53 4083 shows +9685

Saturday - 102841/849882 1862895.15 4296 shows +10678

 

~2m ish early BO as expected. Not sure if studio would even separate it out or add it to previews or even just friday BO as some studios have done. Anyway headwind for thursday ticket sales is gone and I am expecting big acceleration tomorrow with double boost coming from early WOM from fan screenings. 

 

Based on saturday number and pace and expected show times, I am expecting 30m+ BO that day. Let us see how presales go next 2 days to confirm my expectations 🙂.  

I see in the old Tracking Thread and i see a comparaison with TLM , ok not the best comp but the same jump in sales the last two days

 

TLM at T-5 :

Previews(T-5) - 61229/918650 1050194.73 5606 shows +4173

Friday - 72481/1040087 1189629.95 5743 shows +7951

 

Dune 2 at T-5 :

Previews(T-5) - 80224/553651 1550141.86 2809 shows +3532

Friday -  88344/808399 1688691.96 4083 shows +6161

 

TLM at T-4 :

Previews(T-4) - 67189/919974 1146903.83 5615 shows +5960

Friday - 81668/1041293 1333447.74 5758 shows +9187

 

Dune 2 at T-4 :

Previews(T-4) - 86404/554093 1659675.30 2814 shows +6180

Friday - 98029/808399 1860059.53 4083 shows +9685

 

Ok it's only two days of tracking for comparaison but I noticed that and i think it could be interesting

 

PS : TLM had also EA in Wednesday but they are much lower than Dune 2 ( around 60% of the the potential for all the seats available ) so the impact for Thursday Previews ( to not take off) was much lower . That’s why now the previews pace today was better