The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/29/2024 at 1:42 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-8 Days

 

Previews - 274/35594 (167 showings)

 

Comps

1.77x Elemental - $4.25M

2.11x Trolls 3 - $2.75M

0.33x Minions 2 - $3.5M

0.78x Haunted Mansion - $2.4M

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

Thursday - 1556/35944 (170 showings)

 

Comps

1.25x Elemental - $3M

1.99x Trolls 3 - $2.6M

0.23x Minions 2 - $2.5M

0.92x Haunted Mansion - $2.85M

 

Friday - 3675/98336 (462 showings)

 

Comps

2.05x Elemental - $19.1M (Summer, ignore)

1.45x Trolls 3 - $11.7M

4.20x Migration - $17.64M (Xmas & too small, ignore)

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@keysersoze123 Troll 3 FRI MTC 1 was just 18.5%. Never really bothered about looking chain wise share for small animation films but make sense they will underindex heavily in MTC1. Though I guess KFP may be a bit better than Trolls 3.

 

For everyone, Trolls 3 MTC1 comps for KFP 4  are $3.75M THU & $15.5M FRI. 

 

If they end up true, it could be

3.75
15.5
23
16 // 58

For Trolls they clubbed the early BO with Friday BO. so actual Friday BO was lower than what was estimated for sure. 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

For Trolls they clubbed the early BO with Friday BO. so actual Friday BO was lower than what was estimated for sure. 

Trolls 3 $8M+ is actual FRI

1 - 1.50M
2 - 1.10M
3 - 1.28M

 

Mini1 - 0.25M
Mini2 - 0.14M

Edited March 7 by charlie Jatinder

[Grand Cine]

19 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

what was the prediction?

It make this in the Weekdays Thread but i predicted yesterday with a lot of factors and comparaisons a 2nd Weekend about 51M

[Minnale101]

Well I feel a lot more confident at 45 million ow now, I could see 20 million Saturday looking at booking in my area but I can’t see 15 million on Friday 

 

dune 2  second weekend doing 50 million and kfp4 doing 45 million ow

 

in march 

 

that’s pretty damn good start for month 

 

kfp3 did 143 million domestic after 41 million ow, kfp4 got spring break and Easter

 

 

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Trolls 3 $8M+ is actual FRI

1 - 1.50M
2 - 1.10M
3 - 1.28M

 

Mini1 - 0.25M
Mini2 - 0.14M

Weird. I tracked just 100128/607860 1394136.12. So that was just 93% of actuals. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Weird. I tracked just 100128/607860 1394136.12. So that was just 93% of actuals. 

FRI tracked being 90-95% is quite normal.

[Grand Cine]

i don't be on 50M + train for OW , i'm more 40-45M at this point ( and more a low 40's)

 

i think the predictions of KFP and Dune like Deadline or Variety said will be opposite for this movie ( 50M for Dune and 40M for KFP)

[Grand Cine]

For The Debate that you have what is your OW prediction for KFP4 @keysersoze123 and @charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

FRI tracked being 90-95% is quite normal.

Plus this is assuming all tickets are adult tickets. Which would be weird for a family flick. 

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

For The Debate that you have what is your OW prediction for KFP4 @keysersoze123 and @charlie Jatinder

I dont know man. Let us see how walkups go tomorrow. I think it goes below expectations. Free tickets from xfinity will screw up the extrapolations. 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Plus this is assuming all tickets are adult tickets. Which would be weird for a family flick. 

We are missing some 100 locs I think.

 

Yes there will be discounted kids tickets, MiniTC2 actual gross is around 95% of what mine using all adult seats come but that is all locs all shows covered.

 

The 100+ missing locs for you cover the adult vs kids diff and then some more.

 

Also for a kids film like Troll 3 there wont be much A list sales, so whatever they sell is at face value. A presales heavy film like MCU Dune Oppy have many A list ticket solds which arent booked face value but at an agreed price. That’s why our tracked was coming higher than actuals for some films.

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

For The Debate that you have what is your OW prediction for KFP4 @keysersoze123 and @charlie Jatinder

I am in high 40s to low 50s

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 73308/755501 1405317.88 4420 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 100087/788924 1787976.65 4607 shows

 

Its maintaining 80/90% of daily pace of last week. Similar ratio will take it 195K for Friday for 14m ish 2nd friday, 22m saturday and 15m Sunday for 51m 2nd weekend 🙂

 

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1 Saturday - 57517/875280 798886.43 5913 shows

 

This is as of just now. So around half of Dune in gross even if ratios are different. 

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
527	3029	103166	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

412

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

946

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(2.070x) of Migration $3.10M

 

COMP AVG: $3.10M

 

Does look just like over $3M

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
639	4027	125188	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 1:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

998

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

112

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1237

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.667x) of Migration $2.5M

 

COMP AVG: $2.5M

 

Yeah not seeing $3M right now, maybe it can get there with walkups. I'll go with $2.5M

 

Ruby GIllman is the only comp that gets me to $3M+ and that had bad presales 

[katnisscinnaplex]

49 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

(1.667x) of Migration $2.5M

 

COMP AVG: $2.5M

 

Yeah not seeing $3M right now, maybe it can get there with walkups. I'll go with $2.5M

 

Ruby GIllman is the only comp that gets me to $3M+ and that had bad presales 

[keysersoze123]

49 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
639	4027	125188	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 1:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

998

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

112

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1237

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.667x) of Migration $2.5M

 

COMP AVG: $2.5M

 

Yeah not seeing $3M right now, maybe it can get there with walkups. I'll go with $2.5M

 

Ruby GIllman is the only comp that gets me to $3M+ and that had bad presales 

How about Elemental and Trolls 3?

[keysersoze123]

Panda 4 previews are at 38840/464899 563138.32 at this time. I think it can get to 750K and 3m finish if it has 25% ratio like what @charlie Jatinder mentioned earlier. I am curious what @rehpyc has by end of day. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
639	4027	125188	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 1:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

998

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

112

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1237

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.667x) of Migration $2.5M

 

COMP AVG: $2.5M

 

Yeah not seeing $3M right now, maybe it can get there with walkups. I'll go with $2.5M

 

Ruby GIllman is the only comp that gets me to $3M+ and that had bad presales 

 

Florida and Sacto have been singing from the same hymn sheet for this movie for quite a while.  Haven't started my check yet (and didn't take a mid-day sample so this isn't even softing a result), but this is making me go    before I even look.

 

Here's hoping you're the outlier this time. 

 

  

[kayumanggi]