The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

Civil War should post fine enough numbers and doesn't seem nearly as reliant on targeted festival buzz since it has a slew of notable names involved and has been building buzz in general for a while. Monkey Man was going to be a streaming exclusive until it shifted gears not even 12 weeks ago.

[filmlover]

Quote

 

“Deadpool 3,” “Bad Boys: Ride or Die” and “Despicable Me 4” are the most anticipated summer films of 2024, according to the annual Moviegoing Trends & Insights study by Fandango. The results come just ahead of the National Association of Theatre Owners’ official convention CinemaCon, which takes place April 8 to 11 in Las Vegas.

 

The study surveyed more than 6,000 moviegoers on their attitudes and behaviors when heading to the cinemas. Rounding out the list of the top 10 most anticipated summer flicks are John Krasinski’s “A Quiet Place: Day One,” Pixar’s “Inside Out 2,” “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes,” “The Watchers,” Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt’s “The Fall Guy,” “The Garfield Movie” and “Borderlands.”

 

 

[filmlover]

The Watchers definitely stands out as the most unexpected appearance on that list, especially when much more expensive titles like Furiosa and Twisters are nowhere to be found.

[M37]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 18409/195085 330037.91 1399 shows +2613

Friday - 15209/429512 264384.69 2997 shows +3085

 

Another movie that slowed down after solid boost on Monday 🙂

I think the NCAA tournament games are messing with normal sales patterns, weakening the FSS sales, then catching up a bit Monday, so what looks like a drop for Tue - as GxK had last week as well - is really just returning to baseline, plus Easter this weekend as well

 

Growth from T-5 (didn't see a T-7) to T-2 is +58%, just a smidge below GxK, on the upper end of pace, and while I don't believe it will be nearly that walk-up friendly, sales doubling from here would be closer to $2M than the $1.5M that seems to be the approximate consensus. Most films in this growth range add at least another 75% (32.5K final), but also decent chance MTC1 over-indexes here

 

10 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Makes sense. Really feels like the movie's buzz was heavily concentrated in small online circles. Feel like the heavily Indian aspect turns off your average action-movie watcher and doesn't seem like something an Indian from any region of the country would go for either. Could see a John Wick type performance here tho.

I think some were hoping for a Cocaine Bear type of online/viral push, but to me seems more like Creator, less GA friendly

[Minnale101]

Being south Asian and watching monkey man trailer, a movie like this, revenge stories, it’s beaten to death like dead horse, I don’t see Indian population overseas flocking to this, nothing About it is unique at all 

 

very niche movie 

[filmlover]

$14-15M for The First Omen and $12M for Monkey Man.

[JonathanMB]

24 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

 

Here's last year's top 15 for comparison:

 

 

[joselowe]

21 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

 

Here's last year's top 15 for comparison:

 

 

I love that 7 and 8 ended up being 1 and 2

Edited April 3 by joselowe

[SpiderByte]

22 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

 

Here's last year's top 15 for comparison:

 

 

Yeah Fandangos anticipated is basically recency bias and brand recognition

[charlie Jatinder]

34 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Being south Asian and watching monkey man trailer, a movie like this, revenge stories, it’s beaten to death like dead horse, I don’t see Indian population overseas flocking to this, nothing About it is unique at all 

 

very niche movie 

Indian diaspora goes for face value, Dev Patel has none. 

[ringedmortality]

Twisters snubbed

[Minnale101]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Indian diaspora goes for face value, Dev Patel has none. 

Yeahh I maybe misremembering but I don’t even remember slumdog millionaire being huge in India 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Yeahh I maybe misremembering but I don’t even remember slumdog millionaire being huge in India 

 

 

That had oscar buzz which was huge so it did well but all other Dev Patel films are non openers in India or Indian diaspora in US.

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

I set the bar low. Anything over 10m for Monkey Man and the First Omen I see as an absolute win. 15m for either would be a great result imo.

[whatsupdoc]

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Are these final prediction comparison day before release or so? I don't think tracking should be judged by that because by then pre-sales are already out.

Will like to see how TQ, BOP and NRG compares say 6 weeks or 3 weeks out.

 

Edit:

 

Based on your previous post, 6 & 3 weeks out forecast for major films.

https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/6WOFTR-03.01.24.pdf

Dune 2 - $42-49M & $58-65M - ❌

KFP 4 - $46-53M & $46-53M - Acceptable
Imaginary - $18-22M & $14-17M - ❌

Arthur - $13-16M & $13-16M - ❌

Ghostbusters - $50-57M & $50-57M - ❌

Godzilla - $46-53M - ❌

 

Only 1 title had an acceptable result I think. Not really a good track record IMO.

 

In comparison BO Pro, using 3 weeks out. BO Pro rangers are unreasonably big so will be using their midpoints and +/- 5%.

Dune 2 - $61-69M - somewhat acceptable

KFP 4 - $33-37M - ❌

Imaginary - 16-19M - ❌

Arthur - $13-16M - ❌

Ghostbusters - 39-45M - ✅

Godzilla - $43-50M - ❌

 

One Win for BO Pro, One acceptable. Rest pretty much same for other 3 titles and 1 big miss compared to Quorum.

 

 

What's often lost in conversations about tracking is the fact that forecasts change. We offer our first forecast at 6 weeks out, but that numbers fluctuate from 6 weeks out to day of release based on the survey data. BARBIE and DUNE 2 are great examples. Interest in both films took off at about 3 weeks out, and their forecasts went up accordingly. There are times when the forecasts go down because the material isn't connecting or a film is struggling to gain interest from people outside the core audience. 

 

It's the same for folks here who track resales from the first day they go on sale through opening. The story changes. 

 

So why do we offer a forecast at 6 weeks if we know it can change? We do it because it serves as an important check for our studio clients. They can get a sense of whether the campaign is working or if adjustments have to be made. 

 

 

 

 

[Eric Quinn]

Y'all better pray Civil War actually breaks out. Otherwise, I'm going on my "nostalgic toy commercial" rants all throughout April lmao

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

What's often lost in conversations about tracking is the fact that forecasts change. We offer our first forecast at 6 weeks out, but that numbers fluctuate from 6 weeks out to day of release based on the survey data. BARBIE and DUNE 2 are great examples. Interest in both films took off at about 3 weeks out, and their forecasts went up accordingly. There are times when the forecasts go down because the material isn't connecting or a film is struggling to gain interest from people outside the core audience. 

 

It's the same for folks here who track resales from the first day they go on sale through opening. The story changes. 

 

So why do we offer a forecast at 6 weeks if we know it can change? We do it because it serves as an important check for our studio clients. They can get a sense of whether the campaign is working or if adjustments have to be made. 

I get the forecasts are subject to change, just that I think the purpose of traditional tracking is to give a picture with polling before sales aren't there. Once sales are there, there are rare chances of surprise.

 

That said I don't think Dune 2 had any kind of change in one month of pre-sales run. Always looked like $70M or so start.

[misterpepp]

Tarot on sale April 10

 

Back to Black on sale April 22

[ringedmortality]

23 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Y'all better pray Civil War actually breaks out. Otherwise, I'm going on my "nostalgic toy commercial" rants all throughout April lmao

 

Surprised you didn't call Dune 2 a nostalgic toy commercial.

[whatsupdoc]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I get the forecasts are subject to change, just that I think the purpose of traditional tracking is to give a picture with polling before sales aren't there. Once sales are there, there are rare chances of surprise.

 

That said I don't think Dune 2 had any kind of change in one month of pre-sales run. Always looked like $70M or so start.

Presales are an important barometer. But keep in mind that presales appeal to a very specific avid consumer. They don't capture awareness and interest for more casual consumers or walk-ups. 

 

Also keep in mind that marketing campaigns don't begin in earnest until 21 days out, which, in some cases, can be after pre-sales begin. The money spent and the response to the campaign in the final 3 weeks can greatly impact the opening weekend forecast. 

 

More importantly, these are all tools in our toolbox. Survey tracking and pre-sale tracking should work to complement each other. It's not one or the other.