The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 3/30/2024 at 5:04 AM, vafrow said:

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-6, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 46

New Sales : 7

Growth: 18%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.6

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 39/2

Late Evening: 7/2

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 30/2
Regular: 16/2

 

Comps

0.202x HG: BoSS for $1.2M

0.422x Aquaman 2 for $1.9M

0.070x Dune 2 for $0.7M

Average: $1.3M

 

Decent day.

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-5, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 60

New Sales : 14

Growth: 30%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 6.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 44/5

Late Evening: 16/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 30/8

Dolby: 30/2

 

Comps

0.241x HG: BoSS for $1.4M

0.496x Aquaman 2 for $2.2M

0.084x Dune 2 for $0.8M

Average: $1.5M

 

It keeps chugging along and rising against comps.

 

I might just be heavily in the target market for this, but I've been seeing a lot of promotion for it. It might help explain the uptick. 

[vafrow]

On 3/24/2024 at 7:53 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-40, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales: 2

Growth: 100%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 3/6

Late Evening: 1/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 4/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 0/2

 

EA sales

Total: 4

Showtimes: 5

Theatres: 4

 

Not much happening at this stage. I'll update again sometime next week unless something interesting happens. There's no good comps at this stage either.

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-33, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales since T-40: 0

Growth: 100%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 3/6

Late Evening: 1/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 4/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 0/2

 

EA sales

Total: 18

Showtimes: 5

Theatres: 4

 

No growth for previews, but good activity for EA. 

 

I'm not bothering with comps until I get closer to date at this point.

[Krissykins]

21 hours ago, filmlover said:

I always thought a total close to the '06 remake (which itself was heavily boosted by a highly gimmicky release date) would've been a major win for it. The Omen as an IP doesn't seem to carry the same relevancy today as other horror franchises, especially when it's religiously-themed and horror movies like that are a dime a dozen (one is even playing in theaters right now).

I’d be shocked if this films 3 day is over the 1 day of Omen 06. 
 

20 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

I feel Disney feel like they make more profit when they don’t market their horror movies. Both Ready Or Not and Barbarian got very little marketing and did quite well considering and they made profits. Yet I ready they spent a lot of money on Boogyman and that killed their profits for that movie is.

And yet they still haven’t released Barbarian on disc, urgh. 

[M37]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Saturday - 388657/1140879 6323934.01 6500 shows +234796

 

So it actually finished ahead of Friday. I would think that should be sufficient for a saturday increase. But other places probably under performed. Saturday ratios tend to be lower but this week it should be around the same as both days were almost the same. 

The market share & ratios will change because Friday was a holiday, which typically helps to boost the smaller MTCs and markets more than the big ones, as it brings out a larger volume of the casuals who have some unplanned free time. Saturday likely reverted back to a more normal weekend ratio. My guess is that Sunday will be somewhere in between 

[Issac Newton]

Quote

EASTER SUNDAY AM UPDATE: Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire is at $80M….more…, roughly $2M behind the opening of Dune: Part Two. No one saw this coming.

Via @Deadline

[M37]

50 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

No one saw this coming.

::looks back over last 10-20 pages::

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/28/2024 at 5:10 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla x Kong Emagine Entertainment [+7 days of sales]

T-3 Sunday

306 Showings

859

+671

44051

0.768

GB Frozen T-3

8.61M

0.963	Transformers T-3	14.93M
0.405	AtSV T-3	12.64M

Godzilla x Kong Emagine Entertainment [+3 days of sales]

T-0 Sunday

308 Showings

4004

+3145

44282

1.035	Transformers T-0	16.04M
0.388	AtSV T-0	12.11M

 

Adjusted:

Transformers T-0	9.75M
AtSV T-0	11.48M

On 3/28/2024 at 5:13 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla x Kong Alamo Drafthouse [+7 days of sales]

T-3 Sunday

289 Showings

1952

+1353

39999

ATP:

14.79

0.495	GB Frozen T-3	5.56M
0.223	AtSV T-3	6.96M
1.453	Transformers T-3	22.53M
0.897	Black Adam T-3	14.89M
0.203	JW Dominion T-3	7.83M

Godzilla x Kong Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

T-0 Sunday

294 Showings

6130

+4178

40400

ATP:

14.14

0.291	AtSV T-0	9.08M
1.470	Transformers T-0	22.78M

 

Adjusted:

AtSV T-0	13.81M
Transformers T-0	17.66M

 

Numbers are from a few hours ago. Easter unsurprisingly having an effect, especially at Emagine.

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

Can someone update us that WB/Legendary had 6 million in the couch cushions to get over 200m opening weekend for actuals? 😂

[abracadabra1998]

Before I post the numbers for today, here is a quick update on some changes I made/will be making with my posts and tracking. Read if you are interested  I will try to make it not too long as to not take up too much space in this thread, and use spoiler boxes to make it shorter.

 

For those that have read my posts/tracking updates in the past, you know I have long been complaining about my sample's limitations: too urban, too cinephile-heavy, and when I overindex, I overindex a LOT, which can make comps and predictions complicated. To address this, I am changing my sample a bit. Here is a short summary of how it is changing:

 

1. Number of theaters: I used to track a total of 20 theaters, now I am tracking 25.

 

2. Location of theaters: All of my theaters used to all be in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metro area, which was a large reason for those limitations/problems listed above. I am changing this up a little bit:

 

Spoiler

I have dropped 3 of the theaters I used to track: all three were local chains in Minneapolis or Saint Paul. These were often late to post showings, and would swing wildly if the release was heavy on the pre-sales. I think this would lead my sample to overindex a lot at times, as I posted above.

 

To replace them, I have added 8, all in smaller cities/towns around Minnesota, NOT in the metro area : 2 in the Duluth area, 2 in the Rochester area, 2 in the Saint Cloud area, 1 in Mankato, and 1 in Moorhead (this one is actually in Fargo, ND, but I'm going to conveniently forget that). I am hoping that a little more geographic diversity can lead to a more diverse demographic/ audience that my previous sample wasn't quite catching.

 

3. Type of theaters: As said above, I dropped 3 theaters that were local chains, and replaced them with bigger chains (chains that have presence outside of Minnesota, I will put it that way).

 

Spoiler

For those interested, my sample now consists of: 5 MTC1 theaters, 6 Emagine theaters, 8 Marcus theaters (all the ones in Minnesota), 1 Alamo Drafthouse, 2 CMX theaters, 1 B&B theater, 1 Cinemark, and 1 Showplace Icon. 

 

4. Time of tracking: This is for more personal reasons, but I will be checking the numbers and posting my updates later, usually 9-10 PM Central Time is what I will shoot for. This might mess with comps that were taken before this change, but it should only become a problem (if at all) at T-2 or T-1 I think.

 

I will stick to my usual MO of tracking biweekly until the week of release, and daily updates starting at T-4. For comps, I will always do apples-to-apples comps, and make note on the post from now on when I am doing that.

 

I always take advice, so if after reading this something jumped out to you or a change I could make, don't hesitate to reach out to me via DM, I always appreciate it  as always, thanks for letting me be a part of this amazing community!

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/24/2024 at 3:52 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Sample Previews:

 

Monkey Man (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	35	19	132	4075	3.24

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		83	12	62.88
MTC1:		109	17	82.58
Marcus:		2	0	1.52
Alamo:		21	2	15.91
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Comps:

1.33x Argylle: $2.27 Million

0.34x KoFM: $895k

0.79x The Creator (w/ EA): $1.26 Million

 

Average: $1.47 Million

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Monkey Man (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	49	N/A	214	5273	4.06

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		130	N/A	60.75
MTC1:		169	N/A	78.97
Alamo:		22	N/A	10.28
Other chains:		23	N/A	10.75

 

Comps:

1.01x Argylle: $1.73 Million (17 theaters)

1.96x The Iron Claw: $1.31 Million (17 theaters)

0.51x Napoleon (TUE): $1.52 Million (17 theaters)

0.85x The Creator (THU): $1.15 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.43 Million

 

Still really heavy on the MTC1, we'll see if this breaks out at all this last week.

Edited April 1 by abracadabra1998

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

First Omen (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	28	40	40	3052	1.31

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		12	12	30
MTC1:		29	29	72.5
Alamo:		8	8	20
Other chains:		3	3	7.5

 

Comps:

0.77x Night Swim: $1.12 Million (17 theaters)

0.3x Saw X: $600k (17 theaters)

0.35x Nun II: $1.08 Million (17 theaters)

0.25x Insidious Red Door: $1.24 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.01 Million

 

Perhaps I am being too kind with the comps (all super short windows or super huge late breakouts), but I don't think it makes much sense to comp it with other horror movies since this had such a short window. If the week's growth doesn't reflect that I will adjust the comps.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I always take advice, so if after reading this something jumped out to you or a change I could make, don't hesitate to reach out to me via DM, I always appreciate it  as always, thanks for letting me be a part of this amazing community!

 

Not even gonna make this a DM as I think it's good General Advice for trackers.  I really like that you're sampling more outside of the Twin Cities Metro area.  I think you might be surprised at how much the exurbs/outlying areas will fluctuate for given movies, even if judging on a smaller scale.  I know that after observing the patterns a while it gave me a decent feeling which films might be more Middle America and which films might be more urban and which might be somewhere inbetween.

 

It also gave me a sense of breakout potential if I saw a theater that normally sells, oh say 20 tickets total for a given genre sell 30 or 40 instead.  After watching them long enough, even gave me a sense of sub-genre appeals.  Spreading them out enough also let me smooth out most of the outliers if any one particular small theater was relatively over (or under) performing.

 

You might already have a sense of this of course if you've already been keeping an eye on them.  But in general, love this.

 

Just...  as is always my #1 Piece of Advice: Don't bite off more than you can chew.  🙂 

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/24/2024 at 3:57 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Civil War (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-15	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	57	72	72	10591	0.68
Monday April 8 EA: 1 theater	1	51	51	212	24.06
TOTALS:	58	123	123	10803	1.14

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		71	71	98.61
MTC1:		46	46	63.89
Marcus:		2	2	2.78
Alamo:		22	22	30.56
Other chains:		2	2	2.78

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Comps (including EA at this point):

1.23x Monkey Man: ??

1.64x The Creator: $2.62 Million

0.41x KoFM: $1.07 Million

 

Not a bad start but heavy on the EA (only 1 screen despite there being more IMAX screens in town, must be pretty limited). I will have better comps as the days go by

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Civil War (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-8	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	81	N/A	200	14403	1.39
Monday April 8 EA: 1 theater	1	N/A	97	212	45.75
TOTALS:	82	N/A	297	14615	2.03

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		187	N/A	93.5
MTC1:		116	N/A	58
Alamo:		46	N/A	23
Other chains:		38	N/A	19

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Comps (including EA at this point):

2.16x Monkey Man: ?? (17 theaters)

1.7x The Creator: $2.71 Million (17 theaters)

0.74x KoFM: $1.93 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.32 Million

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/21/2024 at 9:26 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-42):

Day: T-42, T-41	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	51	17	63	9691	0.65
Sunday May 1 EA: 13 theaters	16	14	61	3764	1.62
TOTALS:	67	31	124	13455	0.92

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		58	15	92.06
MTC1:		59	13	93.65
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		4	4	6.35
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Chuggin along

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-32):

Day: T-32, T-31	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	75	N/A	85	13674	0.62
Wednesday May 1 EA: 18 theaters	23	N/A	81	5090	1.59
TOTALS:	98	N/A	166	18764	0.88

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		73	N/A	85.88
MTC1:		70	N/A	82.35
Alamo:		10	N/A	11.76
Other chains:		5	N/A	5.88

 

Comps:

0.15x Oppy: $1.57 Million (12 theaters)

 

I hope I don't have to outline the myriad of reasons that Oppy is a terrible comp, it's just the only one I have at the moment.

[abracadabra1998]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just...  as is always my #1 Piece of Advice: Don't bite off more than you can chew.  🙂 

 

I should make that into a sticker and put it on my laptop  changing my tracking to twice a week has really helped, but I always (try to) keep that in mind!

 

And the rest of your post is great advice, appreciate your wisdom as always!

[keysersoze123]

On 3/30/2024 at 10:15 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 11658/145589 213538.26 1023 shows

Friday - 8164/251322 146611.70 1730 shows

 

9 days after last update. Pace is up but still quite low.  Have to see how it ends. Its hard to extrapolate for small movies. Ratios are all over the pace and final week sales could end up meh as well. I hope it does do at high end of pro box office expectations(that did go down this week). 

 

 

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 12940/145589 235473.00 1023 shows +1282 

Friday -  9384/251380 168013.26 1731 shows +1220

 

Probably looking at 1.5-2m preview depending on how the pace goes next 4 days. I am thinking low teens OW for now.  

[keysersoze123]

On 3/12/2024 at 5:25 PM, keysersoze123 said:

The Fall Guy MTC1

Wednesday(5/1) - 969/90635 21348.37 365 shows

Previews - 3420/323065 69285.00 1544 shows

The Fall Guy MTC1

Wednesday(5/1) - 2688/90635 60715.54 365 shows

Previews - 5812/326152 120407.32 1563 shows

 

This is 19 days of presales 🙂

[keysersoze123]

On 3/24/2024 at 12:39 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 2430/9257 57299.70 29 shows

Previews - 6851/332600 139096.05 1649 shows

Friday - 4682/548178 89748.26 2652 shows

 

Its definitely not bad. I definitely can buy @Shawn Robbins call here. its start is stronger than Monkey Man or Fall Guy. Hope the trend continues and have a successful movie.  

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 3779/9257 86228.21 29 shows

Previews - 11840/335115 240427.94 1655 shows

Friday - 8333/554769 164342.59 2674 shows

 

Week worth of presales. Probably looking at highest OW for the month. Thinking 2ish previews and high teens OW for now. 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-5, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 60

New Sales : 14

Growth: 30%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 6.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 44/5

Late Evening: 16/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 30/8

Dolby: 30/2

 

Comps

0.241x HG: BoSS for $1.4M

0.496x Aquaman 2 for $2.2M

0.084x Dune 2 for $0.8M

Average: $1.5M

 

It keeps chugging along and rising against comps.

 

I might just be heavily in the target market for this, but I've been seeing a lot of promotion for it. It might help explain the uptick. 

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-4, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 82

New Sales : 22

Growth: 37%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 8,2

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 60/5

Late Evening: 22/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 51/8

Dolby: 31/2

 

Comps

0.280x HG: BoSS for $1.6M

0.603x Aquaman 2 for $2.7M

0.101x Dune 2 for $1,0M

Average: $1.8M

 

It's averaged  almost 30% growth over the last 3 days. It continues to rise against comps, it'll probably settle into the mid 2s, mayhe higher.

 

Based on demographics, I still expect an overindex locally, but regardless, I expect this to be walkup friendly.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/30/2024 at 8:25 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-5	Jax	5	10	0	7	1,366	0.51%
		Phx	6	12	0	14	1,681	0.83%
		Ral	5	11	0	1	1,236	0.08%
	Total		16	33	0	22	4,283	0.51%
Monkey Man	T-5	Jax	6	18	8	29	3,006	0.96%
		Phx	6	14	7	50	1,683	2.97%
		Ral	7	14	1	35	1,840	1.90%
	Total		19	46	16	114	6,529	1.75%
Someone Like You	T-3	Jax	5	10	6	58	892	6.50%
		Phx	6	12	-1	6	1,316	0.46%
		Ral	6	15	1	33	1,213	2.72%
	Total		17	37	6	97	3,421	2.84%

 

Someone Like You T-3 adjusted comps

- I Wanna Dance - .485x (362k)

 - Respect (Total) - .212x (146k)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - .109x (201k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .219x (279k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 428k

 

Monkey Man T-5 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - 1.107x (1.25m)

 - Cocaine Bear - missed

 - Equalizer 3 - .407x (1.27m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.14x (1.25m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .435x (1.34m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .242x (1.14m)

 - Green Knight - 2.11x (1.68m)

 - Beast - 1.97x (1.86m)

 - 65 - 1.41x (1.72m)

 - Haunting in Venice (Total) - .912x (1.09m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.41m

 

First Omen T-5 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .297x (370k)

 - Last Voyage - .324x (243k)

- Don't Breathe 2 - 1.1x (1.13m)

 - Forever Purge - .88x (1.24m)

 - Escape Room 2 - .647x (823k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.14m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-3	Jax	5	10	1	8	1,366	0.59%
		Phx	6	12	3	17	1,681	1.01%
		Ral	6	12	7	8	1,303	0.61%
	Total		17	34	11	33	4,350	0.76%
Monkey Man	T-3	Jax	6	18	11	40	3,006	1.33%
		Phx	6	14	20	70	1,683	4.16%
		Ral	7	14	12	47	1,840	2.55%
	Total		19	46	43	157	6,529	2.40%
Someone Like You	T-1	Jax	5	10	2	60	892	6.73%
		Phx	6	12	11	17	1,316	1.29%
		Ral	6	15	4	37	1,213	3.05%
	Total		17	37	17	114	3,421	3.33%

*New sales since Saturday

 

Someone Like You T-1 adjusted comps

- I Wanna Dance - .367x (274k)

 - Respect (Total) - .269x (185k)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - .098x (180k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .205x (260k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 307k

 

Monkey Man T-3 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - 1.377x (1.55m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .646x (1.29m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .421x (1.31m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.05x (1.16m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - missed

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .252x (1.18m)

 - Green Knight - 1.805x (1.43m)

 - Beast - 1.99x (1.88m)

 - 65 - 1.37x (1.67m)

 - Haunting in Venice (Total) - .789x (947k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.38m

 

This has been pretty steady in the 1.2-1.6m range for a while now.  I'm pulling for the higher end, especially with good sales over the weekend.  

 

First Omen T-3 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .324x (403k)

 - Last Voyage - .32x (240k)

- Don't Breathe 2 - 1.1x (1.13m)

 - Forever Purge - .508x (716k)

 - Escape Room 2 - .446x (567k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.08m