The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

IF - 175/6,121

 - Super Pets - .621x (1.37m)

 - Bad Guys - 1.944x (2.24m)

 - Lightyear - .213x (1.04m)

 

Strangers - 224/4,161

 - Abigail - 3.446x (3.446m)

 - Northman - 1.409x (1.9m)

- Nope - .292x (1.87m)

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1 previews -  7031/605240 135256.57 3082 shows

Definitely not great but this is not a fan driven movie. Let us see where things are in the final week. 

In hindsight, Little Mermaid presales were really good.

[titanic2187]

11 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Where is Deadline getting this 40 million opening stuff from? Nothing in the presales seems to indicate that.

Yeah, it is trye more often than not tracking here were way more accurate but there are still instances where trades call the number right before the tracking show any sign. Recent example are KFP4 and Apes. Both are tracking around low-40 but trader call out ~55m OW way ahead of tracking.  

[YM!]

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In hindsight, Little Mermaid presales were really good.

TLM skewed older than IO2 likely will. Kind of like Across and to a lesser extent Barbie. I imagine in the sea of Minions2/KFP4 to Across/TLM - despite the nine year wait, IO2 doesn’t really have the nostalgia play at bay and will function more as a family film. Pace is going to be the most important thing until the month of June.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, YM! said:

TLM skewed older than IO2 likely will. Kind of like Across and to a lesser extent Barbie. I imagine in the sea of Minions2/KFP4 to Across/TLM - despite the nine year wait, IO2 doesn’t really have the nostalgia play at bay and will function more as a family film. Pace is going to be the most important thing until the month of June.

Am not suggesting it as a comp per se just noting that TLM had really strong presales despite those garbage trailers. Guess missed opportunity.

 

could have done billie or close with better lead like Zendaya.

Edited May 15 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

30 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In hindsight, Little Mermaid presales were really good.

it was. But that was live action of beloved Disney animation movie. Look at OW of all the remakes we had just before pre covid. There is no doubt there is a strong fanbase to those movies. 

 

Inside Out 2 would behave different for sure. At least the show counts show Plexes are expecting a big OW. 

 

Inside Out 2 Friday - 5925/1010841 102618.23 5167 shows

 

I dont remember when we last had a animation movie start with so many shows. I wont count Mario as that was a fan driven movie. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-30 Days

 

Previews - 134/52278 (203 showings)

 

Comps

4.2x Kung Fu Panda 4 first day - $16M

11.2x Elemental first day - $27M

 

1.25x Haunted Mansion - $3.9M

1x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire first day - $4.5M

2.23x Wonka first day - $7.8M

 

 

Edited May 15 by charlie Jatinder

[AniNate]

Panda 4 is the only comp that means anything imo

[Eric is Quiet]

48 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In hindsight, Little Mermaid presales were really good.

That’s because Halle’s an icon. A queen. A goddess. Everything really.

 

 

[YM!]

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Am not suggesting it as a comp per se just noting that TLM had really strong presales despite those garbage trailers. Guess missed opportunity.

 

could have done billie or close with better lead like Zendaya.

It’s a live action remake of a Disney renaissance, there’s a high baseline domestically on how low one of them can go. Worldwide is another issue and partly due in-real life racism. However, I do think having a few bigger names would’ve helped it. Like Holland or Chalamet as Prince Eric is enough to drive a stronger OS performance.

[Shawn Robbins]

So, the $40m figure for IF in the trades is coming from studio sources and, I think, NRG. I wouldn't discount it, as others have mentioned, especially with some recent examples of pre-sales not being indicative of eventual results until the weekend actually hit.

 

That said, the pre-sales I'm seeing in multiple markets are little better than I think some expect here. I wouldn't be shocked with a number between 2 and 2.5 for Thursday, as well as big jumps on Friday and Saturday. The flip side of that coin is the reviews... although kids won't care.

 

Could see 40 happening if this plays super strong in family markets and outside coastal cities like I suspect it could, but I'm surprised the studio didn't low ball it a little more to be safe... especially since we had been very publicly keeping our range in the high 20s/low 30s from the bottom end.

 

Anyway, here's the BOT weekend forecast:

 

https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/weekend-forecast-if-pacing-for-family

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/weekend-forecast-if-pacing-for-family-driven-33-38m-bow-strangers-and-back-to-black-also-debut-as-apes-hopes-for-healthy-hold/

[Porthos]

re: The Little Mermaid pre-sales.

 

I mentioned it at the time, but in many ways Disney learned their lesson from their abysmal marketing for Aladdin and went all out in promoting TLM, especially very early in pre-sales.  Debates about "garbage trailers" aside, they really ramped up the marketing with a marked focus on the songs of the film, which was a stark departure with Aladdin.

 

And while it didn't affect D1 sales, they also had a very early social media lift and world premiere, which goosed sales in the more typical "u curve" portion of the pre-sale period.

 

All of this led to a slightly more frontloaded film than might be typical for the genre.

 

Just something to keep in mind regarding TLM.

[jeffthehat]

On 5/14/2024 at 10:53 AM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

IF T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
425	15255	94

Comps 

0.27x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $1.3m

0.22x Godzilla x Kong NE T-2 = $2.2m

0.72x Kung Fu Panda 4 T-2 = $2.7m

 

AVG = $2.07m

Indiana

IF T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
497	17666	114

Comps 

0.28x Ghostbusters FE T-1 = $1.3m

0.21x Godzilla x Kong NE T-1 = $2.1m

0.61x Kung Fu Panda 4 T-1 = $2.3m

 

AVG = $1.90m

---

Slipped a little vs. comps. Sub-20% growth seems bad at this stage and opening size for a family film. But maybe walkups are better than presales suggest. Thinking $1.8m +/- $0.2m tomorrow. 

Edited May 15 by jeffthehat

[el sid]

Back to Black, counted today for Thursday, had 64 sold tickets (in 5 theaters, no shows in my AMCs in NY and Texas ).

 

Comps: Respect (650k from previews) had (also without the AMC in NY) 97 sold tickets (but a very good jump till Thursday) = 450k. Very probably BtB won't have the same jump and the comp will go down till tomorrow.

And I Wanna Dance with Somebody (730k) finally had (also without the AMC in NY) 147 sold tickets = 300k + 1 day left for Back to Black. 

 

Average tomorrow will probably be around 400k. 

[el sid]

Accidentally I deleted my almost completed The Strangers: Chapter 1 report so again the shorter version: It had today counted for Thursday 360 sold tickets (in 7 theaters). Best sales in LA and NY.

Up very nice 67.5% since Monday.

 

Average from 9 comps (Knock at the Cabin, The Forever Purge, The Invitation, Barbarian, Smile, M3gan, Abigail, Tarot and Prey for the Devil): 1.9M (up 0.3M since Monday). A nice surprise.

Edited May 15 by el sid

[Cmasterclay]

My desire for original films breaking out is colliding headlong with the fact that I like IF looks like the biggest piece of shit of all time. But ultimately, I'm rooting for it!

[keysersoze123]

Furiosa MTC1

Previews - 23906/411462 502793.16 2070 shows

Friday - 16423/645959 344298.91 3240 shows 

 

Definitely chugging along. I am feeling good about 5m+ previews.  

[Cmasterclay]

Could definitely see a world where people get super optimistic again because of overperformances on May 17th, 24th, and June 7th and then get heartbroken by an IO2 disappointment. Way, way too early to tell on that, though.

[Pinacolada]

46 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Furiosa MTC1

Previews - 23906/411462 502793.16 2070 shows

Friday - 16423/645959 344298.91 3240 shows 

 

Definitely chugging along. I am feeling good about 5m+ previews.  

Hallelujah. Hopefully we see a bump after these reviews

[Joyous Legion]

14 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

@Legion Again wouldn't high double digit previews (if by "high double digit" you mean high teens) mean a $160-180M OW? Seems a little high. . .

By high double digit I meant OW