The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

$360 million opening weekend.

 

A barbenheimer all by itself

[charlie Jatinder]

On 5/18/2024 at 5:10 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-27 Days

 

Previews - 304/52272 (203 showings)

 

Comps

4.61x Kung Fu Panda 4 first 4 day - $17.5M

 

2.14x Haunted Mansion - $6.6M

2.84x Wonka first 4 day - $10M

 

Just playing
0.14x Barbie - $3.2M

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-24 Days

 

Previews - 440/52272 (203 showings)

 

Comps

5.05x Kung Fu Panda 4 first 7 days - $19M

 

2.57x Haunted Mansion first 7 days - $8M

2.84x Wonka first 7 days - $10M

 

Moving along nicely. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-66 Days

 

Previews - 5442/79922 (304 showings) $83K

 

Comps

1.84x GoTG3 first day - $32M

1.18x Black Panther 2 first day - $33.6M

0.88x Thor 4 first day - $25.5M

 

3.90x Black Widow first day - $55M (adj for ATP & Canada)

5.32x Eternals first day - $55M (adj for ATP)

 

Edited May 21 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23690	24051	361	1.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

20

 

T-25 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Shaz 2	164.09		14	220		0/93	15323/15543	1.42%		1663	21.71%		5.58m
TLM	49.38		60	731		0/154	21263/21994	3.32%		6561	5.50%		5.09m
Barbie	38.28		70	943		0/96	11684/12627	7.47%		12077	2.99%		8.65m
Wonka	319.47		2	113		0/112	19174/19287	0.59%		1975	18.28%		11.18m
Aqua 2	155.60		16	232		0/78	13725/13957	1.66%		2629	13.73%		7.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       95/10075  [0.94% sold]
Matinee:     35/2674  [1.31% | 9.70% of all tickets sold]
3D:              19/3852  [0.49% | 5.26% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          155/9686  [1.60% | 42.94% of all tickets sold]

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23663	24051	388	1.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

27

 

T-24 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	213.19		182	182		0/73	11083/11265	1.62%		3951	9.82%		13.32m
Shaz 2	152.16		35	255		0/93	15288/15543	1.64%		1663	23.33%		5.17m
TLM	49.11		59	790		0/154	21201/21991	3.59%		6561	5.91%		5.06m
Barbie	38.80		57	1000		0/96	11626/12626	7.92%		12077	3.21%		8.77m
Wonka	334.48		3	116		0/112	19171/19287	0.60%		1975	19.65%		11.71m
Aqua 2	153.97		20	252		0/78	13708/13960	1.81%		2629	14.76%		6.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     98/10075  [0.97% sold]
Matinee:    41/2674  [1.53% | 10.57% of all tickets sold]
3D:            25/3852  [0.65% | 6.44% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        169/9686  [1.74% | 43.56% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Obviously had a bump from that strong shared Pixar/Deadpool fandoms! 

[Porthos]

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-66 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	218	28624	31469	2845	9.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

2845

 

Day 1 Comps

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	42.15		6749	6749		0/329	34167/40916	16.49%		21117	13.47%		15.18m
L&T	68.37		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	16.77%		19.83m
BP2	87.43		3254	3254		0/279	31690/34980	9.30%		16800	16.93%		24.48m
AM3	140.91		2019	2019		0/231	30346/32365	6.40%		10475	27.16%		24.66m
GOTG3	150.37		1892	1892		0/205	27676/29568	6.40%		10750	26.47%		26.31m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         584/12927  [4.52% sold]
Matinee:     NOT YET COMPILED DUE TO FANDANGO ORNERINESS
3D:               240/6684  [3.59% | 8.44% of all tickets sold]
PLF:            1663/11001  [15.12% | 58.45% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Pretty good, all things considered.  BP2 and onward tell a pretty consistent picture, I think.  Do think the extra month of pre-sales is gonna mess with these comps at least a little, but I know that's a sore spot with some, so just consider that a comment as read by Yours Truly.

 

Wasn't able to pull updated data from one theater, so the numbers might be slightly under (like by about a total of 10 to 20 tickets), but at this level of tickets, eh.  Not even a rounding error.

 

Next up: See how the post-Day 1 pace is before the loooooooong marathon stretch begins.  Probably save any other thoughts I have until I start seeing said pace.

Edited May 21 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Quick and Dirty Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Sacramento Report [T-3]

760/18457 (4.12% sold) 136 showings.

 

0.38423x RotB at T-3         [3.38m]
0.49934x KoPotA at T-3     [3.30m]
0.58104x BOSS at T-3        [3.34m]
0.87963x Wonka at T-3      [3.08m]
1.39963x Fall Guy at T-3    [4.41m]
0.41015x GxK at T-3           [4.10m]
0.77551x GBFE at T-3        [3.64m]

 

====

 

Yeaaaah, that wasn't fun.  Had to dig deeeeeeeeeep into my Bag o' Tricks tonight to get all three of these beasties done.  But, yeah.  After tusslin' and wrassin and in general getting into a pissing match with Fandango...

 

 

...

 

What's that?  You want thoughts on Furiosa?  Ask me again tomorrow when I have a sense of pace. 😉 

 

Though, obvs, not exactly blasting down the doors here.  Could be late arriving crowd (see The Fall Guy comp), could be shitty comps (put this together at literally the last moment and thus didn't think too hard about what to choose as comps), could be under-performing here.  WHO KNOWS!

 

Find out in a couple of days, I suppose.

 

Edited May 21 by Porthos

[vafrow]

On 5/19/2024 at 6:27 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Garfield Movie, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-5, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.3

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 3/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 1/4

3D Regular: 3/6

Dolby: 0/2

3D Dolby: 0/2

 

EA - Sunday May 19

Sales: 50

Showtimes: 2

Theatres: 2

 

Comps

0.026x KFP4 for $0.1M

0.071x Wonka for $0.3M

 

Average: $0.3M

 

EA sales aren't bad, but previews are still extremely slow. This is clearly going to be a family weekend type film, but I'm surprised we're not seeing anything for previews yet.

 

The Garfield Movie, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-3, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 11

New Sales: 7

Growth: 175%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.8

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 2/1

Late Afternoon: 4/3

Early Evening: 5/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 6/4

3D Regular: 3/6

Dolby: 2/2

3D Dolby: 0/2

 

Comps

0.039x KFP4 for $0.1M

0.122x Wonka for $0.4M

0.579x IF for $1.0M

 

Average: $0.5M

 

Even with a slight jump, this is miles behind a decent total. 

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

Furiosa, T-4 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 124

New Sales: 13

Growth: 12%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.6

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 10/4

Early Evening: 74/9

Late Evening: 40/9

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 33/6

IMAX: 77/6

VIP: 11/5

4DX: 3/2

Regular: 0/3

 

Comps

0.153x Dune 2 for $1.5M

1.107x KOTPOTA for $5.5M

0.423x HG:BoSS for $2.4M

 

Average: $3.2M

 

Slipped slightly. Nothing too eventful. But we're still in holiday weekend more in Canada right now. Tomorrow might see a better bump.

 

Furiosa, T-3 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 154

New Sales: 30

Growth: 24%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 10/4

Early Evening: 100/9

Late Evening: 44/9

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 43/6

IMAX: 93/6

VIP: 13/5

4DX: 5/2

Regular: 0/3

 

Comps

0.165x Dune 2 for $1.7M

1.149x KOTPOTA for $5.7M

0.477x HG:BoSS for $2.7M

 

Average: $3.4M

 

Decent growth, and slight bump up. Hopefully that continues.

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Inceptionzq]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why this like of like caveat. Do we have more theaters showing Wolverine now or is it other way around(theaters that existed previously are no longer around).

Fandango hasn’t been working for me, so I’m using Atom. Haven’t decided what I’m gonna do for Regal.

[Eric Prime]

23 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I mean I'd be very concerned if that wasn't the case, but good for it I guess.

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews OD sales - 116273/1243211 2207789.99 7590 shows

 

It was at just under 101K at around 215PM and so excellent growth even post that. It did finish ahead of Wakanda and around 20K below Thor 4. Of course it has the longer cycle. Let us see how things go. FYI this includes fan shows which was not there in my initial update. That alone sold 18K+ just in initial check around noon PST. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Friday - 45511/1472850 896365.71 8186 shows

 

Obvious skew on previews as its 9 weeks plus away from release. This was overnight run. 

[emoviefan]

Said a few days ago this weekend should be the first to go over 100 m total since easter weekend but if Furiosa does not break out much past the fan base and Garfield does not explode in walkups from families it might need the holiday Monday to do it. Will be interesting.

[vafrow]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Friday - 45511/1472850 896365.71 8186 shows

 

Obvious skew on previews as its 9 weeks plus away from release. This was overnight run. 

 

I was trying to dig through the old thread to see what the ATP was for Thor L&T. The only post I could find from early days was your first mtc2 pull, which had an ATP of $14.40.

 

It's looking like the pulls for D&W is hovering around $19.00.

 

Are you able to validate what type of ATP you were seeing on L&T? Especially for the early sales. I imagine mtc1 is probably the higher chain, but I don't have enough familiarity with American chains.

 

I wasn't tracking in 2022, and even if I did, I don't price adjust (even though I now track format data that I probably should, but we'll leave that for another day). But, I know MTC4 has really jacked up plf prices in the last year or so, and D&W is skewed heavily towards premium formats in my track.

 

I'm not sure how many trackers are doing price adjustments, but lack of good MCU comps in the last year could see a big price impact. I am watching the L&T comps in particular because being a rare adult skewing July MCU film seems to be the most ideal.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, vafrow said:

 

I was trying to dig through the old thread to see what the ATP was for Thor L&T. The only post I could find from early days was your first mtc2 pull, which had an ATP of $14.40.

 

It's looking like the pulls for D&W is hovering around $19.00.

 

Are you able to validate what type of ATP you were seeing on L&T? Especially for the early sales. I imagine mtc1 is probably the higher chain, but I don't have enough familiarity with American chains.

 

I wasn't tracking in 2022, and even if I did, I don't price adjust (even though I now track format data that I probably should, but we'll leave that for another day). But, I know MTC4 has really jacked up plf prices in the last year or so, and D&W is skewed heavily towards premium formats in my track.

 

I'm not sure how many trackers are doing price adjustments, but lack of good MCU comps in the last year could see a big price impact. I am watching the L&T comps in particular because being a rare adult skewing July MCU film seems to be the most ideal.

MTC2 has lower ATP generally.

[Wotad]

Not really surprised people love Wolverine and deadpoll has always been its own thing , If it open around 150m would be great numbers. 

[charlie Jatinder]

.

Edited May 21 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

43 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

MTC2 has lower ATP generally.

screens are smaller. Though they have their own PLF plus DBOX, most of those screens have smaller capacity. Plus tiny number of Imax screens across the chain. 

[charlie Jatinder]

MTC2 is also more family friendly chain and does much better PTA than MTC1.

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, Eric Furiosa said:

I mean I'd be very concerned if that wasn't the case, but good for it I guess.

Think DP&W was poised to be the biggest opening  weekend. Even with 150-155M my lowest range. No other movie  2024 was  getting to that number.

 

IO2, DM4, JOKER 2, Moana 2 were and are still in that "95-130m" ow  spot.

 

Yeah they are suprise hits but if that happens think it will in terms of long legs .