The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Squire]

51 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I mean, fair enough.  More talking about "matter of degree here".  I used "slightly" as an adjective very much on purpose, as I did indeed mean slightly.  Sliver.  Shade.  Teeny bit less. That sort of thing.

 

I do think Furiosa was in a position where any little thing could have sent it wobbling.  That precariousness speaks partially to the film itself, but I will agree that its also a commentary on the overall theater going landscape right now.

 

That being said, as I just alluded to, I still think we should see how the GA takes to the film and how it does in the legs department before coming to any sweeping conclusions about said film.

While I don’t think it’s the most reliable metric, Quorum tracking has been pretty bad for Furiosa up to this point. 
 

As many in here have speculated, Fury Road doesn’t have much appeal to more casual movies goers. It is quite weird, after all. 

Edited May 22 by Squire

[Cmasterclay]

Furiosa sales are slowing down because it was always going to be a product of cinephile fan rush, a Mad Max prequel without Mad Max is probably topping out around 40m OW these days. Garfield numbers much more shocking and shitty. Thought that was a legit 150m grosser.

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Furiosa (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	144	179	1121	23723	4.73

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		955	139	85.19
MTC1:		649	78	57.89
Alamo:		165	20	14.72
Other chains:		307	81	27.39

 

Comps:

1.05x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $6.92 Million

1.79x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $5.65 Million

0.84x BoSS: $4.85 Million (17 theaters)

0.75x MI7 (TUE): $5.25 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.67 Million

 

Still kickin it

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Furiosa (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	165	153	1274	25407	5.01

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1075	120	84.38
MTC1:		731	82	57.38
Alamo:		181	16	14.21
Other chains:		362	55	28.41

 

Comps:

0.97x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $6.38 Million

1.74x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $5.49 Million

0.82x BoSS: $4.7 Million (17 theaters)

0.72x MI7 (TUE): $5.07 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.41 Million

 

About that good pace @Porthos...

 

Not a great update, down against every comp. This is also a movie that is highly overindexing in MTC1 and Alamo (only 28% sold in other chains is pretty low). That is most comparable to... BoSS, which is (not) coincidentally the lowest comp value I have. Right now with this pace and thinking about those variables I think $4.5-5 Million is a good target, but I will be looking closest at that comp moving forward.

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

first time trying this

(2 AMC theaters NY/NJ):
 

Deadpool 3 Previews first 14 hours :

 

36 showtimes/442 tix sold

 

Furiosa Previews (T-3) 

 

8 showtimes/159 tix sold

 

Inside Out 2 Previews (T-24)

8 showtimes/59 tix sold

 

Garfield previews (T-3)

 

7 showtimes/51 tix sold

 

*non-PLF

Furiosa Previews (T-2)

 

9 showtimes/187 tix sold (+28)

 

Garfield Previews (T-2)

 

10 showings/69 tix sold (+18)

[charlie Jatinder]

Amazing day two at MiniTC2. Well ahead of BP2, GOTG3 and AM3. Not too far off from Thor 4.

This is more impressive considering they all were ~25-35 days out while this is 65 days out.

Edited May 22 by charlie Jatinder

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Furiosa sales are slowing down because it was always going to be a product of cinephile fan rush, a Mad Max prequel without Mad Max is probably topping out around 40m OW these days. Garfield numbers much more shocking and shitty. Thought that was a legit 150m grosser.

Honestly I felt the same way about Garfield you felt about the Fall Guy. There never seemed to be any real excitement for it or reason for it to break out. Family audiences are being choosy and holding on to their money until IO2 and DM4. As for Furiosa not shocking either just would have liked it to break out a little bit this weekend and shock a little life into the coma of a BO. June should be better. Bad Boys, IO2 and QP: Day One should all do well.  and all 3 have the potential to make more than the top movie this month which is going to be Apes it seems.

[Spidey Freak]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah but even that is proving the thin line with moviegoers anymore. 85% on RT is not even close to being bad but because it is not Fury Road great it's like people go eh I can wait to streaming. It's really frustrating.

 

Without Charlize, ppl didn't really want this if it wasn't going to be Fury Road great at the least. All things considered, the numbers are fine

 

As Cmaster said, the real shocker is Garfield. Did IF hurt it that bad? Considering IF itself has a mid performance instead of breaking out, looks like families checked out until IO2

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Furiosa (T-2):

 

Average: $5.41 Million

 

About that good pace @Porthos...

 

Man, I'm just full of jinxes today, ain't I? 😂

 

(referencing something off board on another 'site, don't mind me)

((laughing tears is mostly at myself here, ftr))

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Garfield Movie (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	125	23	129	15620	0.83

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		8	2	6.2
MTC1:		70	16	54.26
Alamo:		15	5	11.63
Other chains:		44	2	34.11

 

Thursday comps:

0.81x IF: $1.42 Million

0.29x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.09 Million

0.72x Migration: $1.07 Million

0.28x Wonka: $980k

0.83x Trolls 3: $1.08 Million

 

Average: $1.13 Million

 

I think people that are expecting this to break out like it seems like it is doing so overseas are in for a rude awakening come this weekend  

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Garfield Movie (T-2):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	140	25	154	16948	0.91

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		8	0	5.19
MTC1:		77	7	50
Alamo:		17	2	11.04
Other chains:		60	16	38.96

 

Thursday comps:

0.77x IF: $1.34 Million

0.28x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.06 Million

0.6x Migration: $905k

0.28x Wonka: $965k

0.74x Trolls 3: $965k

 

Average: $1.05 Million

 

Gonna keep sounding the alarm bells. HORRIBLE update for this so close to release.

[filmlover]

Re: Garfield looking increasingly like an underperformer

 

Maybe the Garfield brand just has a limit in appeal? FWIW the 2004 live-action movie, while a decently solid performer, didn't exactly set the box office on fire. Its grosses really paled in comparison to what the live-action Scooby-Doo and The Flintstones movies did with similarly lousy reviews. What is the hook for this movie supposed to be anyway? If you loved Chris Pratt as Mario and in his other animated movies, you'll love him as the voice of everyone's favorite lasagna loving cat? Can't say it's difficult to see why there's no apparent enthusiasm for it from any demos.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Without Charlize, ppl didn't really want this if it wasn't going to be Fury Road great at the least. All things considered, the numbers are fine

 

As Cmaster said, the real shocker is Garfield. Did IF hurt it that bad? Considering IF itself has a mid performance instead of breaking out, looks like families checked out until IO2

 

Agree with the first (lack of Theron is a likely a big minus, FWIW!), but not so much the second.  Just think Garfield was one of those projects that had a huge "WHY?!?" stigma attached to it.  So it petering out is one of the least surprising box office stories of the year for me.

 

But as I said I've long been very skeptical of its chances, so I won't repeat my thoughts on the matter (for once).

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Without Charlize, ppl didn't really want this if it wasn't going to be Fury Road great at the least. All things considered, the numbers are fine

 

As Cmaster said, the real shocker is Garfield. Did IF hurt it that bad? Considering IF itself has a mid performance instead of breaking out, looks like families checked out until IO2

Like I said I do not think Garfield is the shocker some think it is. Universal and Illumanation might have been able to generate some excitement for it but Sony nope.

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-66, Day 1):

Day: T-66	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	298	2398	2398	44821	5.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1739	1739	72.52
MTC1:		1057	1057	44.08
Alamo:		198	198	8.26
Other chains:		1143	1143	47.66

 

Day 1 Comps (not serious ones, they're just the ones I got):

4.17x The Marvels: $27.49 Million

2.14x Dune Part 2*: $24.14 Million

 

*combing day 1 of EA sales and day 1 of previews sales, which I know is cheating a little bit, but it doesn't make much sense to do it any other way either

 

Probably will just update once a week on Thursdays for the next 30 or so days, this is a truly annoying pre-sales window they're giving us here

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-65, Day 2):

Day: T-65	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	298	392	2790	44821	6.22

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1993	254	71.43
MTC1:		1249	192	44.77
Alamo:		223	25	7.99
Other chains:		1318	175	47.24

 

Day 2 Comps (not serious ones, they're just the ones I got):

4.6x The Marvels: $30.37 Million

2.29x Dune Part 2: $25.9 Million

 

Ok, NOW I will update it once a week on Thursdays. Couldn't help but see what the fuss about day 2 was all about and... yeah, pretty damn great!

 

[emoviefan]

I think the disappointment with Furiosa is that 50 for the 4 day weekend is looking unlikely even though Keyser earlier said he thought it would. But unless it just fall off a cliff in these last few days it should still do 45 or so for the 4 days. Which for a prequel without Max and Charlize in the title role is not bad. Once again the budget is the problem. But they greenlit it knowing that Fury Road was not a monster performer either. It's their money. 

[Squire]

11 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Like I said I do not think Garfield is the shocker some think it is. Universal and Illumanation might have been able to generate some excitement for it but Sony nope.

Yeah, Garfield isn’t really a hot IP these days. Hasn’t had the staying power Lego or Mario has. 
 

On a side note, I thought Pratt was fine as Mario. Those people who have it out for him just find any reason to dunk on him. 

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Re: Garfield looking increasingly like an underperformer

 

Maybe the Garfield brand just has a limit in appeal? FWIW the 2004 live-action movie, while a decently solid performer, didn't exactly set the box office on fire. Its grosses really paled in comparison to what the live-action Scooby-Doo and The Flintstones movies did with similarly lousy reviews. What is the hook for this movie supposed to be anyway? If you loved Chris Pratt as Mario and in his other animated movies, you'll love him as the voice of everyone's favorite lasagna loving cat? Can't say it's difficult to see why there's no apparent enthusiasm for it from any demos.

 

Y'all are really tempting me to dissect Garfield, ain't cha?

 

...

 

Okay, I don't really want to repeat myself here, but a few things.

 

The live-action Garfield movies I think are in that genre of film that can be put in the box "aged badly".  Might have done well enough at the time, but I'm not personally aware of many folks who think that fondly of them.  Maybe not as bad as the live-action Alvin and the Chipmunks films, but... kinda close?  At least in popular memory?  Sorta a Guilt-by-association (along with live-action Grinch).

 

Then we have the various TV cartoons.  Never watched them, but I gather they did rather well.  But... the transition from TV to Silver Screen isn't always smooth, if only because folks have already had plenty of "free" entertainment from the property in the audio/visual medium*.

* Remember this comment, folks, when I start to discuss the box office prospects of another incoming TV-->film project on the not too distant horizon

 

Then there's the elephant in the room: Demo Appeal.

 

Garfield first debuted in 1978.  Was a massive hit and cultural presence in the 80s and still going fairly strong well into the 90s.  But I do think it is safe to say that was the crest of its popularity, at least in its original format in comics.  Since then it's... Well I don't really have a good feel on the pulse of what is and isn't all that popular, but I think it is very safe to say it is nowhere close to the popularity it once had.

 

So appeal to Gen Xers (and Early Millennials) with kids, is probably the target demo here.  Not an unreasonable demo to target.  But speaking as a Gen Xer, we can be... fickle.  And, I dunno.   Maybe the memory of live-action Garfield is too strong.  I know I've harped on it far too much.  But I look at CGI animated Garfield as the sort of thing that if it came out anywhere from, oh say, 2011 to 2018, it would have done much better than it looks to be doing now.

(eta: especially since many Gen Xers' kids have likely aged-out of a Garfield range by now leaving the field to Early Millennials with kids).

 

But 2024?  'bout a decade "too late" I think.  Or maybe even five years too late.

 

Anyway, that's the slightly longer version of my thoughts:  Limited demo appeal, probably a few years "too late".

Edited May 22 by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/20/2024 at 9:21 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL X WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-66

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
998	11346	198024	5.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First 12 hours

*Don't take these seriously 

(5.606x) of Dune 2 $52.13M
(7.396x) of Planet Apes $36.98M

(5.250x) of Godzill and Kong $49.88M

 

Rollout is pretty insane as well. It has almost 200 more showings than Inside out 2. Crazy, but true. It's sold more tickets than Dune 2 did as of T-1 (Dune 2 finished with 13.6k on T-0). It has also surpassed Godzilla tickets sold as of T-0

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-65

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1028	12854	202319	6.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1508

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

COMPS

2nd day

*Don't take these seriously 

(4.770x) of Dune 2 $44.36M

 

Pretty ridiculously strong day 2. It sold more tickets on T-65 than Dune 2 did in its final day of presales. No further updates til T-30

Edited May 22 by TheFlatLannister

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-65

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1028	12854	202319	6.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1508

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

COMPS

2nd day

*Don't take these seriously 

(4.770x) of Dune 2 $44.36M

 

Pretty ridiculously strong day 2. It sold more tickets on T-65 than Dune 2 did in its final day of presales. No further updates til T-30

So what OW are we forecasting based on this? Assuming it's GOTG 3 reception

[ringedmortality]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Y'all are really tempting me to dissect Garfield, ain't cha?

 

...

 

Okay, I don't really want to repeat myself here, but a few things.

 

The live-action Garfield movies I think are in that genre of film that can be put in the box "aged badly".  Might have done well enough at the time, but I'm not personally aware of many folks who think that fondly of them.  Maybe not as bad as the live-action Alvin and the Chipmunks films, but... kinda close?  At least in popular memory?  Sorta a Guilt-by-association (along with live-action Grinch).

 

Then we have the various TV cartoons.  Never watched them, but I gather they did rather well.  But... the transition from TV to Silver Screen isn't always smooth, if only because folks have already had plenty of "free" entertainment from the property in the audio/visual medium*.

* Remember this comment, folks, when I start to discuss the box office prospects of another incoming TV-->film project on the not too distant horizon

 

Then there's the elephant in the room: Demo Appeal.

 

Garfield first debuted in 1978.  Was a massive hit and cultural presence in the 80s and still going fairly strong well into the 90s.  But I do think it is safe to say that was the crest of its popularity, at least in its original format in comics.  Since then it's... Well I don't really have a good feel on the pulse of what is and isn't all that popular, but I think it is very safe to say it is nowhere close to the popularity it once had.

 

So appeal to Gen Xers (and Early Millennials) with kids, is probably the target demo here.  Not an unreasonable demo to target.  But speaking as a Gen Xer, we can be... fickle.  And, I dunno.   Maybe the memory of live-action Garfield is too strong.  I know I've harped on it far too much.  But I look at CGI animated Garfield as the sort of thing that if it came out anywhere from, oh say, 2011 to 2018, it would have done much better than it looks to be doing now.

(eta: especially since many Gen Xers' kids have likely aged-out of a Garfield range by now leaving the field to Early Millennials with kids).

 

But 2024?  'bout a decade "too late" I think.  Or maybe even five years too late.

 

Anyway, that's the slightly longer version of my thoughts:  Limited demo appeal, probably a few years "too late".

 

Part of the reason I thought it would be a break out is because Garfield has been widely memed on Twitter, Reddit, and TikTok. There was also a fairly popular TV show in the late 00s (I watched it growing up) and I was thinking there could be some nostalgia for the Murray movies (there isn't especially when you compare it to how fondly remember the Scooby Doo and The Cat in the Hat live action films are).

 

But clearly that didn't translate to this film.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Y'all are really tempting me to dissect Garfield, ain't cha?

 

...

 

Okay, I don't really want to repeat myself here, but a few things.

 

The live-action Garfield movies I think are in that genre of film that can be put in the box "aged badly".  Might have done well enough at the time, but I'm not personally aware of many folks who think that fondly of them.  Maybe not as bad as the live-action Alvin and the Chipmunks films, but... kinda close?  At least in popular memory?  Sorta a Guilt-by-association (along with live-action Grinch).

 

Then we have the various TV cartoons.  Never watched them, but I gather they did rather well.  But... the transition from TV to Silver Screen isn't always smooth, if only because folks have already had plenty of "free" entertainment from the property in the audio/visual medium*.

* Remember this comment, folks, when I start to discuss the box office prospects of another incoming TV-->film project on the not too distant horizon

 

Then there's the elephant in the room: Demo Appeal.

 

Garfield first debuted in 1978.  Was a massive hit and cultural presence in the 80s and still going fairly strong well into the 90s.  But I do think it is safe to say that was the crest of its popularity, at least in its original format in comics.  Since then it's... Well I don't really have a good feel on the pulse of what is and isn't all that popular, but I think it is very safe to say it is nowhere close to the popularity it once had.

 

So appeal to Gen Xers (and Early Millennials) with kids, is probably the target demo here.  Not an unreasonable demo to target.  But speaking as a Gen Xer, we can be... fickle.  And, I dunno.   Maybe the memory of live-action Garfield is too strong.  I know I've harped on it far too much.  But I look at CGI animated Garfield as the sort of thing that if it came out anywhere from, oh say, 2011 to 2018, it would have done much better than it looks to be doing now.

 

But 2024?  'bout a decade "too late" I think.  Or maybe even five years too late.

 

Anyway, that's the slightly longer version of my thoughts:  Limited demo appeal, probably a few years "too late".

I get the sense the Garfield movies from the aughts aren't remembered at all tbh (even with them being used as punchlines via Bill Murray's cameos in the Zombieland movies). Not even the Razzies could be bothered to nominate them for anything and lord knows they've always enjoyed going after easy targets.

 

Anyway, if Furiosa opens similarly to Fury Road that would be a win IMO. I don't know why anyone would've expected more, especially being a prequel with an entirely new cast (I also don't think bringing Charlize back would've moved the needle much higher either). Mad Max is probably too weird of a franchise to ever rival the biggest ones.