The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Joyous Legion]

Sacto T-46: 4743

T-39: 5133 (+390/8.2%)

 

Projecting from the bottom of the U can be tricky, but I would guess that it might come into T-14 with around 7400, which would give the following t-14 comps:

MOM 25.6M

TLT 32.8M

BP2 29.2M

 

Those would all likely continue to rise, especially if reception is medium-good, but frankly this had a weak start in Sacto and continues to be weak in Sacto (Relative to DPW in most other samples, not to like gotg or atsv or whatever in Sacto )

Edited June 17 by Legion Again

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, T-18 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 38

New Sales since T-25: 29

Growth: 322%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.0

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 3/8

Early Afternoon: 5/8

Late Afternoon: 13/8

Early Evening: 17/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 0/7

Regular 3D: 0/5

Dolby: 25/14

Dolby 3D: 4/2

IMAX: 9/10

 

Comps

1.652x Inside Out 2 for $21.5

1.520x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $7.3M

1.310x GB:FE for $4.8M

4.222x Wonka for $14.8M

12.667x Garfield for $24.1M

 

Average: $14.5M

 

I probably should have updated earlier. I've been tracking through the week though and it's been steadily adding sales. Having the IO2 opening also helps, however, for this market, it's comparing a school day versus summer holiday (and a premiere versus previews).

 

Still, it's doing well, especially for a walk up based franchise.

 

Despicable Me 4, T-17 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 56

New Sales: 18

Growth: 47%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.0

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 3/8

Early Afternoon: 19/8

Late Afternoon: 13/8

Early Evening: 21/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 3/7

Regular 3D: 0/5

Dolby: 40/14

Dolby 3D: 4/2

IMAX: 9/10

 

Comps (T minus)

2.435x Inside Out 2 for $31.7

2.000x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $9.6M

1.697x GB:FE for $6.3M

6.222x Wonka for $21.8M

18.667x Garfield for $35.5M

 

Average: $21.0M

 

This jumped up big yesterday. I wonder if all the traffic in theatres yesterday helped put this on the radar of families to watch. If this also does the expected massive walk up business the franchise is known for, it's going to end up doing really well.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/16/2024 at 5:59 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-18 Days

 

Wednesday - 506/104887 (408 showings)

 

Comps

Inside Out 2 (THU+FRI) - $23M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (THU+FRI) - $39M

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-17 Days

 

Wednesday - 550/104887 (408 showings) 

 

Comps

Inside Out 2 (THU+FRI) - $23M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (THU+FRI) - $35M

[Bob-omb]

Can it be that DM4 ends up having a higher OW than IO2? 

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Bob-omb said:

Can it be that DM4 ends up having a higher OW than IO2? 

Don't see any reason for why that would happen

[Bob-omb]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Don't see any reason for why that would happen

Sorry my bad. My brain is not working properly and got wrong conclusions from the numbers above. Also it is close to impossible due to the WED opening.

Edited June 17 by Bob-omb

[jeffthehat]

Indiana 

The Bikeriders T-3 

Sales	Seats	Shows
190	7780	68

TC = 22, pulled 11 AM EST

Comps

0.25x Furiosa T-3 = $880k

0.63x Challengers T-3 = $1.0m*

0.41x Civil War T-3 = $1.2m*

*pulled 10ish hrs earlier

 

AVG = $1.03m

[justnumbers]

I guess Bikeriders is heading to 7M-8M Opening?

[Pinacolada]

If it can get Thursday previews to 1m, I would hope it'd have a shot as double digits? I know we're getting more and more frontloaded, but I can't imagine this film being that frontloaded. 

 

In terms of other Focus films, Northman previewed to 1.35m and opened to 12.2m. 9.03x IM. Northman being more frontloaded than Bikeriders would make sense to me

 

I think Justnumbers prediction is probably more likely tho. Hoping for the best

Edited June 17 by Pinacolada

[justnumbers]

I would be surprised.

 

I think the ceiling here is 9M but I honestly think ~7M is more likely. And being from Focus and what seems to be barely advertised, I could see it fall to a 6 or 5M.

 

I don't find Northman to be a good comp. I think there was more going for that. Could be wrong.

Edited June 17 by justnumbers

[Pinacolada]

14 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

I would be surprised.

 

I think the ceiling here is 9M but I honestly think ~7M is more likely. And being from Focus and what seems to be barely advertised, I could see it fall to a 6 or 5M.

 

I don't find Northman to be a good comp. I think there was more going for that. Could be wrong.

100%, I'm just comparing that movie's Thursday preview and what The Bikeriders could be headed to on Thursday

[keysersoze123]

On 6/10/2024 at 6:58 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 OD - 8429/1046495 139724.28 5517 shows

 

+4 days later. 

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 OD - 12016/1049671 201872.01 5540 shows +3587

 

few hours under a week of updates. Pace is really meh. I will see how the pace goes up this week but its slipping against IO2 Friday. IO2 had probably the best finish any movie has ever had and so the comps will be worse. If I have to guess its looking at 25m ish for wednesday and 5 day in 110m ish levels. 

[todos]

46 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 OD - 12016/1049671 201872.01 5540 shows +3587

 

few hours under a week of updates. Pace is really meh. I will see how the pace goes up this week but its slipping against IO2 Friday. IO2 had probably the best finish any movie has ever had and so the comps will be worse. If I have to guess its looking at 25m ish for wednesday and 5 day in 110m ish levels. 

That implies likely below $70M weekend. 

Edited June 17 by todos

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/14/2024 at 5:50 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
484	2128	95178	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

87

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-13

(1.179x) of Furosia $4.13M

(1.108x) of Apes $5.54M 

(1.803x) of Civil War $5.23M 
Comps AVG: $4.97M 

 

Could do $5M previews. Let's see how the final two weeks go

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
485	2425	95249	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

214

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

COMPS

T-10

(1.104x) of Furosia $3.86M

(1.186x) of Apes $5.93M 

(1.836x) of Civil War $5.32M 
Comps AVG: $5.04M 

 

No change in prediction 

[Unfitclock]

So regal is doing a summer movie express where they’re putting older movies in theaters for a $1 at 11am throughout the summer every week I took a look just out of curiosity and every single movies throughout the summer is completely full

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 OD - 12016/1049671 201872.01 5540 shows +3587

 

few hours under a week of updates. Pace is really meh. I will see how the pace goes up this week but its slipping against IO2 Friday. IO2 had probably the best finish any movie has ever had and so the comps will be worse. If I have to guess its looking at 25m ish for wednesday and 5 day in 110m ish levels. 

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Friday - 5491/1068097 86945.53 5612 shows

 

I thought its possible that it could be backloaded. Nah. let us see where things stand Monday after next. As of now it has sold < 1 ticket per show 🙂

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Fly Me to the Moon T-25: 32.67% Awareness, 42.54% Interest

Longlegs T-25: 16.7% Awareness, 45.09% Interest

They Listen T-74: 8.28% Awareness, 34.72% Interest

White Bird: A Wonder Story T-109: 10.38% Awareness, 37.76% Interest

Paddington in Peru T-214: 27.83% Awareness, 34.83% Interest

 

The Bikeriders T-4: 28.48% Awareness, 40.03% Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 34% chance of 10M

 

A Quiet Place: Day One T-11: 43.28% Awareness, 50.78% Interest

Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 48% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 18% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 80% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 47% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 69% chance of 20M, 38% chance of 30M, 15% chance of 40M

 

Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 T-11: 27.63% Awareness, 38.05% Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

Deadpool & Wolverine T-39: 65.33% Awareness, 66.5% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 83% chance of 90M, 67% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 83% chance of 70M, 67% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

Blink Twice T-67: 15.44% Awareness, 38% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 21% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M

T-60 Interest: 33% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 20% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M

[Eric is Quiet]

13 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

So regal is doing a summer movie express where they’re putting older movies in theaters for a $1 at 11am throughout the summer every week I took a look just out of curiosity and every single movies throughout the summer is completely full

They do this every year. I'll never forget getting off work to see a movie last year (don't forget what), and the theater's parking lot had like three school buses full of screaming children from some summer camp, all seeing Sonic 2. I was thankfully not seeing Sonic 2.

[Mojoguy]

26 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

So regal is doing a summer movie express where they’re putting older movies in theaters for a $1 at 11am throughout the summer every week I took a look just out of curiosity and every single movies throughout the summer is completely full

Thanks for the news. I might check that out that if an older movie interests me.

 

Looks like this week is Angry Birds 2 and TMNT Mutant Mayhem.

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

Is anyone tracking the new Russell Crowe opus *The Exorcism*? It seems to be getting a semi-wide release in my area (currently slightly more than Late Night with the Devil in terms of locations). I assume it could add some more theaters tomorrow, though unsure how wide it will go with Vertical as distributor. There are surprisingly some pre-sales in my area. Perhaps some people mistakenly think it's a sequel/prequel to "The Pope's Sister's Exorcist's Traveling Blanket Society" or whatever that other April 2023 Russell Crowe abomination extermination epic that earned $9 M OW was called. 

Edited June 17 by Jerri Blank-Diggler