The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[VanillaSkies]

Twisters RT audience score starts at 91% with over 100 reviews. Hope this is a good omen for overall general audience satisfaction over the weekend and can maybe help bring in more crowds Saturday/Sunday.

[el sid]

36 minutes ago, Kon said:

Were Furiosa initial sales pretty impressive? That would make me wary too.

At least in my theaters, they were. But its final jumps were anemic (only 21% from Monday to Thursday). Twisters is doing way better.

 

I will report soon, I'm just still too busy. 

[TalismanRing]

NYC REGAL LOCAL (7pm)

TWISTERS: 100 (3pm)/ 106 (4pm) /117 (5pm)/ of 4564

 

17 showing today for previews and all totaled still behind the one early preview yesterday. 

 

THUR COMPS

Lost some comps since didn't have some Thursdays

KPOA: $2.41m
APQ3: $3.64m
Bad Boys: $7.77m
Furiosa: $2.69m
Dune II: $4.21m
Indy 5: $4.96m
Trans Beasts: $5.24m

 

AVG: $4.42m but less cohesion in the middle than yesterday. 

Including a possible $2.5m in early previews which would hit $6.92m  

 

• Added in BB4 which had huge late walk ups - only sold 75 tickets as 4pm
• Furiosa in comparison had low late walk-ups and had sold 138 by 3pm
• KPOA which was running a bit behind Twisters on Wed in terms of Early Previews & Thur - sprinted ahead today with 220 seats sold by 4pm - more than doubling Twisters at 4pm which up until 5pm seems to be plodding along at this location.

 

 

 

 

 

[Grand Cine]

5 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Twisters RT audience score starts at 91% with over 100 reviews. Hope this is a good omen for overall general audience satisfaction over the weekend and can maybe help bring in more crowds Saturday/Sunday.

If it stays , it's A-/A cinemascore

[John Marston]

6 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

NYC REGAL LOCAL (7pm)

TWISTERS: 100 (3pm)/ 106 (4pm) /117 (5pm)/ of 4564

 

17 showing today for previews and all totaled still behind the one early preview yesterday. 

 

THUR COMPS

Lost some comps since didn't have some Thursdays

KPOA: $2.41m
APQ3: $3.64m
Bad Boys: $7.77m
Furiosa: $2.69m
Dune II: $4.21m
Indy 5: $4.96m
Trans Beasts: $5.24m

 

AVG: $4.42m but less cohesion in the middle than yesterday. 

Including a possible $2.5m in early previews which would hit $6.92m  

 

• Added in BB4 which had huge late walk ups - only sold 75 tickets as 4pm
• Furiosa in comparison had low late walk-ups and had sold 138 by 3pm
• KPOA which was running a bit behind Twisters on Wed in terms of Early Previews & Thur - sprinted ahead today with 220 seats sold by 4pm - more than doubling Twisters at 4pm which up until 5pm seems to be plodding along at this location.

 

 

 

 

 

so I assume it must be doing better elsewhere for these 50m hopes 

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

so I assume it must be doing better elsewhere for these 50m hopes 

 

Even here It could still point toward $7m total if it grows late legs like Trans Beasts or Indy which should be enough for $50m+

[keysersoze123]

22 minutes ago, John Marston said:

so I assume it must be doing better elsewhere for these 50m hopes 

You dont have to assume. There is enough data in last few pages where its uber strong. I dont think its  doing under 6m at this point. Closer to 6.5m and that is without early shows. its doing so well in heartland that walkups are really strong. MTC1 is looking more like 120K at this point. That is more than double from where it ended yesterday. Just crushed even Apes overall. Friday sales are also well higher than Apes and so 60m+ OW is happening. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

So, is 50M OW for Twisters a sure bet?

Like $6M Thur, 8x IM, plus EA would be $50M, seems fairly solid (but would not go so far as to say L word)

 

Probably mid to high-$50Ms OW, $60M+ in play if Thur and esp IM is strong 

 

Spoiler

Fwiw, if I were playing the Derby, $57.37M would be my guess (barring new info)

 

[Eric Deetz]

20 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Trans Beasts

This needs to be a movie yesterday holy shit

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters	T-0	Jax	5	102	204	605	15,007	4.03%
		Phx	7	73	150	504	12,402	4.06%
		Ral	8	81	255	668	9,841	6.79%
	Total		20	256	609	1,777	37,250	4.77%

 

Twisters (Thu) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 3.71x (8.72m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .655x (5.91m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Thu) - 1.496x (7.48m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - .79x (4.27m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.164x (5.12m)

 - M:I 7 (Thu) - .785x (5.02m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - .263x (3.96m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Bad Boys (Thu) - missed

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 1.702x (5.84m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.58m

Growth model forecast - 5.75m

 

I was hoping for 50% and ended up with +52%.  I think 6m is likely for true previews and there's plenty of room to grow today.  

 

Pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Twisters	157.54%	33.91%	22.15%	52.14%
Fall Guy	122.79%	32.09%	22.60%	48.30%
Godzilla x Kong	112.13%	31.14%	25.23%	37.40%
Kingdom of Apes	117.18%	37.84%	22.65%	38.62%
Ghostbusters: FE	107.19%	32.70%	19.96%	36.22%
M:I 7	103.41%	34.50%	23.32%	48.85%
Top Gun 2	70.31%	28.66%	17.93%	19.44%
Bullet Train	140.55%	26.50%	24.45%	40.89%

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters	1-Hr	Jax	5	102	460	1,065	15,007	7.10%
		Phx	7	74	154	658	12,507	5.26%
		Ral	8	81	383	1,051	9,841	10.68%
	Total		20	257	997	2,774	37,355	7.43%

 

Twisters (Thu) T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 3.43x (8.07m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .716x (6.46m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Thu) - 1.54x (7.7m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - 1.02x (5.49m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.405x (6.18m)

 - M:I 7 (Thu) - .879x (5.62m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - .344x (5.17m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 1.866x (6.4m)

 - Transformers 6 (Thu) - .782x (5.59m)

All action - 6.3m

All PG-13 - 6.39m

All 2pm previews - 6.54m

All movies - 6.77m

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.16m

Growth model forecast - 6.82m

 

All signs pointing to great walkups as expected.  I'll put my final prediction at 6.3m not including EA.

[excel1]

$12.5m preview plz and ty

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/7/2024 at 1:20 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	282	237	5145	40441	12.72

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3205	114	62.29
MTC1:		2373	129	46.12
Other chains:		2772	108	53.88

 

Comps:

2.54x Dune Part 2 (THU): $25.39 Million (17 theaters)

4.56x Marvels: $30.1 Million (17 theaters)

2.06x Barbenheimer: $65.35 Million (lol)

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	370	2297	7442	52739	14.11

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4185	980	56.23
MTC1:		3030	657	40.71
Other chains:		4412	1640	59.29

 

Comps:

2.2x Dune Part 2 (THU): $21.99 Million (17 theaters)

4.7x Marvels: $31.05 Million (17 theaters)

1.18x Barbenheimer: $37.29 Million (17 theaters)

 

That Dune comp is not very good, I think, because it overindexed in my market, and also that was before I expanded my sample to include more theaters outside of the metro. The Marvels comp gives me a good feeling because that had a terrible final week, so it could easily go up

[keysersoze123]

17 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	370	2297	7442	52739	14.11

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4185	980	56.23
MTC1:		3030	657	40.71
Other chains:		4412	1640	59.29

 

Comps:

2.2x Dune Part 2 (THU): $21.99 Million (17 theaters)

4.7x Marvels: $31.05 Million (17 theaters)

1.18x Barbenheimer: $37.29 Million (17 theaters)

 

That Dune comp is not very good, I think, because it overindexed in my market, and also that was before I expanded my sample to include more theaters outside of the metro. The Marvels comp gives me a good feeling because that had a terrible final week, so it could easily go up

Barbenheimer should be good as that did very well all the way(plus combo previews should be close to Deadpool). Dune did not finish that strong and so the comps will go up big time. Marvels I am not a big fan. Its too small a movie to make good comps. 

[el sid]

Twisters, counted today for today, had 1.948 sold tickets. 

Up 22.5% since yesterday which is a decent jump. E.g. BB4 jumped 24% and The Fall Guy also 24% but both at a way lower level where higher jumps are easier. Furiosa jumped only 21% from Monday to Thursday and Planet of the Apes jumped 20% from Wednesday to Thursday. 

 

My average preview number compared to 7 films (GxK, Planet of the Apes, The Fall Guy, Uncharted, Civil War, BT and Bad Boys 4 - always also counted on Thursday for Thursday) is 6.1M (true Thursday). 

 

Very nice. I just hope that its walk-ups stay solid as reported so far. Living in Germany, this twister hype/phenomenon is hard to estimate for us. But presales-wise, I'm optimistic. 

[DAJK]

The thing I’m noticing for Twisters is its strong final surge, which makes me think the weekend multi will be very strong (I’ve already talked about this). For the afternoon shows today that have already started, over 60-70% of the tickets were bought in the last hour before show start, which is unheard of in this day and age.

[jeffthehat]

2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Yeah… you’re probably right.
 

Honestly, the more I track, the more I think an average is mostly useless because it’s so dependent on what the comps that are chosen are… been pondering just removing averages altogether. I feel like individual comps, with the appropriate target audiences and ratios of pre-sales to walk-ups (this is guesswork of course, but most of the times we can make educated guesses) are much more useful 

 

I def agree with the sentiment. But in defense of the average, what I like about it is that it controls for the unknowable variables. We don't know market skew, ATP, and walkup rate for sure until final results come in, so averaging a bunch of comps together helps give a baseline for what to expect if the movie behaves like "normal" within a sample. 

 

That said, we do get a good idea of the unknowables from everyone's numbers and analysis, so the average from an individual sample is a poor signal when compared to a more thorough analysis of the comps and how they fit into the big picture. 

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

You dont have to assume. There is enough data in last few pages where its uber strong. I dont think its  doing under 6m at this point. Closer to 6.5m and that is without early shows. its doing so well in heartland that walkups are really strong. MTC1 is looking more like 120K at this point. That is more than double from where it ended yesterday. Just crushed even Apes overall. Friday sales are also well higher than Apes and so 60m+ OW is happening. 

 

12 minutes ago, DAJK said:

The thing I’m noticing for Twisters is its strong final surge, which makes me think the weekend multi will be very strong (I’ve already talked about this). For the afternoon shows today that have already started, over 60-70% of the tickets were bought in the last hour before show start, which is unheard of in this day and age.

Agreed with you both. This has been an important part of projecting this movie, especially when EA was so strong and those shows can naturally enhance the True Thu-to-True Fri multiple versus a straight-up Thu preview release.

 

We still went fairly bullish with final forecasts last night (didn't publish until this morning), but admittedly needed to bring down the temperature a little bit just in case. I still wouldn't rule out some crazy multipliers, though.

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/weekend-forecast-twisters-eyes-the-disaster-epics-box-office-rebirth-with-potential-57-77-million-domestic-debut/

[Porthos]

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Twisters Sacramento Report [T-1]

2661/33369 (7.97% sold) [+875 tickets] 252 showtimes

[EA: 1396/3553 (39.29% sold) [+446] - 17 showtimes | Stan:  1265/29816 (4.24% sold) [+429] 225 showtimes]

 

0.77535x  RotB at T-1           [6.82m]
2.54155x  Fall Guy at T-1      [8.01m]
0.81005x  GxK at T-1             [8.10m]
2.29793x  Furiosa at T-1       [8.04m]
----

1.35627    BOSS  at T-1        [7.80m]
2.10190    Wonka  at T-1       [7.36m]
1.58961    Aquabro 2 at T-1  [7.15m]
1.75876    GBFE at T-1           [8.27m]

------

0.77370x  KPotA [THURSDAY ONLY] [5.11m]
 

========

 

That's more like it.  Now looking somewhere in the 7s combined, locally; perhaps even 8.  The one open question then is: Just how much demand was burnt off today and how much will that impact Thur sales. 

 

No clue.  Find out soon enough.

 

Quick and Dirty Twisters Sacramento Report [T-0] [FINAL] [3:50pm - 4:25pm]

*NOTE: All showtimes that started before 3:50pm were sampled at the beginning of the screening.

3987/33369 (11.95% sold) [+1326 tickets] 252 showtimes

[EA: 1396/3553 (39.29% sold) - 17 showtimes | Stan:  2591/29816 (8.69% sold) [+1326] 225 showtimes]

 

0.80173x   RotB at T-0         [7.06m]
2.64040x  Fall Guy at T-0    [8.32m]
0.78100x   GxK at T-0          [7.81m]
2.30063x  Furiosa at T-0     [8.05m]
1.47612x   BOSS at T-0        [8.49m]
2.01873x  Wonka at T-0      [7.07m]
1.51655x  Aqua at T-0          [6.82m]
1.81475x  GBFE at T-0         [8.53m]
0.83638x Indy 5 at T-0       [6.02m]

 

===========

 

Yeah, just did a'ight here, at least compared to the explosion of some markets.  Not loving the Indy 5 comp (which was added when I saw some discussion about it).  Nor, frankly, the RotB comp.  Most of the 8m+ comps were from smaller movies as well.

 

Sacramento is probably just under-performing a tad, or at the very least not blowing up like the Midwest.  Perfectly cromulent might be the word of the day. 

 

Knowing that it's playing stronger in some parts of the country than others, and noting how variable EA sales truly can be, gonna say a combined 7.5m +/-.5m and a call it a night.

 

(should I have tracked this all the way through?  Apparently)

((was I in any mental shape to do it after the monster tracks of IO2 and [the ongoing] DP3?  Not remotely))

(((ah well, will have to be a hole in my comps, I suppose)))

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]