The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

WB also has Red One OS and that is gonna tank spectacularly.

The theatrical release for that one got cancelled entirely a few weeks ago here in Turkey. That just goes to show how little faith our distributor had for it, to the point where they'd rather use our theatrical window loophole here in the event Amazon decides to drop it on Prime in Christmas or something so that we can get it alongside everyone else instead of having to wait 4-5 months.

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

Bagman T-23: 18.33% Awareness, 42.61% Interest

Transformers One T-23: 41.45% Awareness, 48.89% Interest

Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim T-107: 20.22% Awareness, 43.94% Interest

A Complete Unknown T-119: 17.33% Awareness, 37.33% Interest

The Fire Inside T-119: 10.4% Awareness, 34.04% Interest

 

1992 T-2: 26.11% Awareness, 44.78% Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

Afraid T-2: 24.78% Awareness, 46.44% Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M

 

The Wild Robot T-30: 27.34% Awareness, 40.54% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Animation/Family Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 58% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Interest: 87% chance of 10M, 75% chance of 20M, 37% chance of 30M

 

Joker: Folie a Deux T-37: 64.11% Awareness, 64.22% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 86% chance of 90M, 71% chance of 100M, 14% chance of 200M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 86% chance of 70M, 71% chance of 100M, 14% chance of 200M 

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

Smile 2 T-51: 38.19% Awareness, 47.08% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 46% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 43% chance of 30M

T-60 Interest: 61% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M, 19% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 69% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M, 14% chance of 30M

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

Maybe a new September record ? The record is in 2017 with 698M . Last year , it was 474M . Great scores for Beetlejuice but other hits ? Maybe Transformers One or The Wild Robot?

September

2017 - 709,809,250
2019 - 688,409,959
2018 - 675,659,504

[filmlover]

 

[el sid]

On 8/26/2024 at 4:26 PM, dallas said:

Will anyone here be tracking the Christopher Reeve doc? 

I heard in Germany that the doc is very good...

 

Yesterday it had 58 sold tickets for September  21. So far it has shows in only four of my seven theaters. Best presales in the two AMCs in California. 

I think that's a decent number with over three weeks left but without comps, not very helpful. Will keep an eye on it in the the next few weeks.

[Mojoguy]

Any news about how big the IO2 expansion will be for this upcoming Labor Day WE?

 

I imagine TC for D&W will be the same or barely drop this WE. It will easily be 1st again. 

[filmlover]

Doesn't seem like AfrAId is being screened for critics. 

 

On that note, what's everyone feeling for Speak No Evil? Universal's been pushing it quite heavily + "creepy neighbor" type of thrillers tend to be appealing when they're well-done, and McAvoy's presence gives it a classier feel than most movies from the Blumhouse factory. Obviously destined to open in the shadow of Beetlejuice, but seems like it has the potential to become the closest thing to a breakout for the Blumhouse brand after their other efforts this year (Night Swim, Imaginary, and now AfrAId) were all dumped without fanfare.

[VanillaSkies]

20 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Any news about how big the IO2 expansion will be for this upcoming Labor Day WE?

 

I imagine TC for D&W will be the same or barely drop this WE. It will easily be 1st again. 

D&W is getting back a lot of PLF, including some IMAX showtimes this weekend, so I definitely think it has the edge for #1.

Edited August 28 by VanillaSkies

[Mojoguy]

30 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

D&W is getting back a lot of PLF, including some IMAX showtimes this weekend, so I definitely think it has the edge for #1.

Just checking my 2 nearby Regals and they both are bringing IO2 but it is very limited. One showing per day at the 1st and 2 showings per day at the 2nd bigger Regal. IO2 will increase but I'm not expecting anything crazy this WE.

 

Looks like both are pushing D&W hard this WE though. They must be expecting many people to rewatch the film.

[filmlover]

It's definitely a "last weekend of summer/calm before the storm" weekend. Luckily the commencement of awards season with the festivals has assured that things aren't quiet in Tinseltown.

[todos]

53 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Just checking my 2 nearby Regals and they both are bringing IO2 but it is very limited. One showing per day at the 1st and 2 showings per day at the 2nd bigger Regal. IO2 will increase but I'm not expecting anything crazy this WE.

 

Elemental for some reason increased  366% same weekend of expansion. If Inside Out 2 did that kind of jump, $7.3M+ weekend. Unlikely with the big digital sales already.

Edited August 28 by todos

[AniNate]

Yeah 366% is not going to happen. It's still in 1500+ theaters, very modest increase most likely. Elemental was only in 235 theaters before its re-expansion so of course it was gonna have a dramatic increase in total. Its PTA still dropped by about half.

 

TS4 increased 94% in total while its PTA dropped about 40%, that seems more realistic.

[Shawn Robbins]

 

[Selma]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Yeah 366% is not going to happen. It's still in 1500+ theaters, very modest increase most likely. Elemental was only in 235 theaters before its re-expansion so of course it was gonna have a dramatic increase in total. Its PTA still dropped by about half.

 

TS4 increased 94% in total while its PTA dropped about 40%, that seems more realistic.

So jurassic World IS being passed before Beetlejuice comes ?

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-9)

 

21 showtimes/268 tix sold (+20)

 

1.32x AQP Day One (T-9) [8.98m]
2.28x Alien: Romulus (T-9) [14.69m]

2.18x IEWU (T-9) [14.72m]
2.23x Bad Boys 4 (T-9) [12.43m]

 

I think it’s heading for ~13m pure Thursday 
 

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-8)

 

21 showtimes/279 tix sold (+11)

 

1.29x AQP Day One (T-8) [8.77m]
2.04x Alien: Romulus (T-8) [13.26m]

2.2x IEWU (T-8) [14.85m]
2.21x Bad Boys 4 (T-8) [12.32m]
 

Bad day after the last two were decent. IEWU exploded starting at T-7, so that comp will drop below 1.75x, but there’s the PLF advantage for Beetlejuice (extra 15-20%). A Quiet Place is the only thing that worries me (but it didn’t have a strong finish).

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Transformers One Day 2 (T-23)

 

11 showtimes/43 tix sold (+17)

 

.38x A Quiet Place Day One (T-22) [2.58m]

.43x Beetlejuice 2 Day Two [????]

 

I removed Alien as a comp since it’s likely overshooting

Transformers One Day 2 (T-21)

 

11 showtimes/44 tix sold (+1)

 

.36x A Quiet Place Day One (T-21) [2.45m]

.44x Beetlejuice 2 Day Three [????]

 

don’t expect to see much growth for the next 10 days

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Friday (T-10)

 

31 showtimes/266 tix sold

 

2.16x It Ends With Us (T-10) [32.83m]

2.51x Alien: Romulus (T-10) [29.07m]

 

45m Thurs + Fri would be my guess

Beetlejuice 2 Friday (T-9)

 

31 showtimes/314 tix sold (+48)

 

2.0x It Ends With Us (T-9) [30.4m]

Missed Alien: Romulus (T-9) 

1. Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-9) [???]

 

very strong, especially compared to the subpar Thurs sales today. Unfortunately I didn’t track IEWU or Romulus for basically up till T-3, so I’ll have to use a litany of other comps that are likely ill-suited until then.

[excel1]

I think the Superman doc could actually make some money.

[Pinacolada]

8 hours ago, filmlover said:

Doesn't seem like AfrAId is being screened for critics. 

 

On that note, what's everyone feeling for Speak No Evil? Universal's been pushing it quite heavily + "creepy neighbor" type of thrillers tend to be appealing when they're well-done, and McAvoy's presence gives it a classier feel than most movies from the Blumhouse factory. Obviously destined to open in the shadow of Beetlejuice, but seems like it has the potential to become the closest thing to a breakout for the Blumhouse brand after their other efforts this year (Night Swim, Imaginary, and now AfrAId) were all dumped without fanfare.

I'm hoping for $20m OW for Speak No Evil, but not sure what to expect

[Relevation]

New releases at my two theaters are all extremely pathetic (combined sold worse than Blink Twice and Horizon!) and not deserving of a full post again (will bring back the full write-up for Beetlejuice)

City of Dreams - 10 tickets sold ($139K comp against Cabrini)
Reagan - 9 tickets sold ($267K comp against Horizon: An American Saga)
AfrAId - NEW WORST SELLING MOVIE EVER with 7 tickets sold ($417K comp against Tarot)

Should be the last super boring week before Beetlejuice Beetlejuice brings the house down with $15M+ previews