The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

12 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Twisters is a reeeeally walkup heavy comp to throw at Wicked imo, maybe It Ends With Us would work better? Otherwise I agree with the other comps, maybe Furiosa also for Gladiator?

Gladiator comping with Furiosa is what makes nervous.

[vafrow]

3 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Twisters is a reeeeally walkup heavy comp to throw at Wicked imo, maybe It Ends With Us would work better? Otherwise I agree with the other comps, maybe Furiosa also for Gladiator?

 

I didn't track IEWU unfortunately. Furiosa was a short window (at least in Canada) at 15 days. 

 

I might throw Bad Boys RoD at Gladiator. 21 days. It might help for initial day sales.

 

For those that have Barbenheimmer data, that'll be a big help. I don't have it, at least for my current radius.

 

I'm tempted to use Joker 2 for Wicked. As much as the film is a disaster, the preview tracking was steady. And when it opened, I think the expectations of being a musical (with a pop star lead) might be enough to work with.

[CompoundTheGains]

Terrifier 3 California presale update.  
  
Thursday Oct 10 showings only.  
74 theaters (not nearly exhaustive and new theaters keep popping up but I’m sticking with these 74 theaters).  
185 showings (+1) since T-8.  
  
T-22 was 1,743 tickets sold.  23.554 tickets per theater or 10.3136 tickets per showing.  
   
T-17 is 2,352 tickets sold (+34.94%).  31.7838 tickets per theater or 13.917 tickets per showing.   
  
T-14 is 2,714 tickets sold (+15.39%).  36.676 tickets per theater or 15.598 tickets per showing.  
 
T-8 is 3,636 tickets sold (+33.97%).  49.14 tickets per theater or 19.76 tickets per showing. 
 
T-5 (11:20pm EST) is 4,974 tickets sold (+36.80%).  67.22 tickets per theater or 26.89 tickets per showing.

 

Nice growth!!

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Smile 2, T-13, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 22

New Sales since T-16: 13

Growth: 144%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Tickets per Showtime: 2.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Early Evening: 22/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 22/10

 

Comps 

1.000x AQP:D1 for $6.8M

0.210x Alien Romulus for $1.4M

0.647x Furiosa for $2.3M

 

Average: $3.5M

 

This has been steady since it's lacklustre start. AQP under indexed here, so it's spitting out a high number, but it's still highly impressive it's staying pace.

 

This is getting zero plf screens at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised if Jokers underperformance benefits Smiles theatre allocation when full sets go up on Tuesday.

 

Smile 2, T-12, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 24

New Sales: 2

Growth: 9%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Tickets per Showtime: 2.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Early Evening: 22/5

Late Evening: 2/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 24/10

 

Comps 

0.960x AQP:D1 for $6.5M

0.220x Alien Romulus for $1.4M

0.533x Furiosa for $1.9M

 

Average: $3.3M

 

Not much exciting here. I probably won't get back to this for posted updates until next weekend.

[vafrow]

On 10/5/2024 at 8:15 AM, vafrow said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-20, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 49

New Sales : 14

Growth: 40%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 2.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/4

Early Evening: 39/8

Late Evening: 10/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 0/1

Dolby 3D: 11/6

IMAX: 13/4

IMAX 3D: 0/2

4DX 3D: 2/3

VIP: 23/3

 

Comps 

0.742x Joker 2 for $4.7M

2.579x GB:FE for $12.1M

0.803x Beetlejuice² for $7.9M

 

Average: $8.2M

 

A few notes 

 

I switchd over to T minus, but realized I was miscounting days to release. That's been corrected.

 

Switching to T minus has thrown comps for the better. But it's a shame as I lose GxK as a comp, which I think would otherwise be the best for this. I'll get it back by next week.

 

But the increase in comps is also due to the 40% jump. I'm not sure if that's fans finding tickets up for sale after a disorganized roll out on ooenjg day, or people disappointed with the Joker word of mouth looking to the next big release. Smile 2 had a good day as well, so I don't think we can rule out the latter.

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-19, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 49

New Sales : 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 2.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/4

Early Evening: 39/8

Late Evening: 10/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 0/1

Dolby 3D: 11/6

IMAX: 13/4

IMAX 3D: 0/2

4DX 3D: 2/3

VIP: 23/3

 

Comps 

0.690x Joker 2 for $4.3M

1.960x GB:FE for $9.2M

0.803x Beetlejuice² for $7.9M

 

Average: $7.1M

 

A zero sales day, after a couple of big days. It's still on healthy ground and likely will be more walk up heavy.

[Grand Cine]

For me , The comp for Gladiator 2 are Twisters , Apes, GxK and Dune 2. For Wicked , the comp will be Wonka, It Ends With Us and Mean Girls.

[filmpalace]

On 10/5/2024 at 6:26 PM, filmpalace said:

Terrifier 3 T-5

 

Tickets sold: 154 (+10)

Growth (over the past 2 days): 7%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 3

 

2,48x Megalopolis (T-5) – 1,17M

 

Low growth, but that’s to be expected when all the showings are nearly sold out. I still have a feeling there’s some fan rush behind this movie’s ticket sales, hence the Megalopolis comp. Either way, theaters should definitely add more showtimes.

Terrifier 3 T-4

 

Tickets sold: 157 (+3)

Growth: 2%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 3

 

2,45x Megalopolis (T-4) – 1,15M

 

Probably won’t have a clear picture of where this is headed until more showtimes are added.

[iEnri]

What are the chances of Venom 3 coming close to 100M opening? Is this being walk ups heavy almost as much as the second one likely?

Edited yesterday at 01:41 PM by iEnri

[leoh]

On 10/1/2024 at 8:53 PM, leoh said:

 

Venom Fan Event for Thursday 5pm. It’s listed separately on Fandango and AMC.

It’s selling, both in LA and New York, really well (around 50% capacity already sold) considering it’s been on sale for only 6h and all of them are IMAX screenings.

 

link for LA Venom fan event (AMC) https://www.amctheatres.com/movies/venom-the-last-dance-opening-night-fan-event-78305/showtimes?rel=joker-folie-a-deux-68585_flm_hp_hero1&date=2024-10-24&theatre=amc-burbank-16

 

New York fan event (AMC) https://www.amctheatres.com/movies/venom-the-last-dance-opening-night-fan-event-78305/showtimes?rel=joker-folie-a-deux-68585_flm_hp_hero1&date=2024-10-24&theatre=amc-lincoln-square-13

 

 

‘Venom: The Last Dance’ Thursday Fan Event showings update.

 

Venom Fan Event showings keep a nice pace and are selling really well both in LA and New York. In LA theaters, these Fan Events are now almost sold out. And in New York most showings occupancy is now around 80%.

 

All of them are IMAX 5pm showings.

LA sample:

https://www.amctheatres.com/movies/venom-the-last-dance-opening-night-fan-event-78305/showtimes?date=2024-10-24

 

NY Fan Event sample: https://www.amctheatres.com/movies/venom-the-last-dance-opening-night-fan-event-78305/showtimes?rel=joker-folie-a-deux-68585_flm_hp_hero1&date=2024-10-24&theatre=amc-34th-street-14

Edited 23 hours ago by leoh

[filmlover]

Don't know if this has been mentioned but Gladiator II showtimes are starting to appear as well (starts at 2:00 that Thursday, no early access it seems) so it seems like everyone is already banking on it and Wicked (GladiWicked?) being the next Barbenheimer sensation if theaters are already locking in their screens/showtimes for that busy weekend.

Edited 22 hours ago by filmlover

[HummingLemon496]

Venom 3 will be very walk up heavy and open to ~80M, like Twisters/GxK

[CompoundTheGains]

Terrifier 3 Colorado presale update. 
Thursday Oct 10 showings only. 
26 theaters. 
58 showings (+3 since T-8)

 

T-21 was 526 tickets sold.  20.23 tickets per theater or 9.74 tickets per showing. 
  
T-17 was 694 tickets sold (+31.94%).  26.69 tickets per theater or 12.85 tickets per showing.  
 
T-13 is 832 tickets sold (+19.85%).  32.00 tickets per theater or 15.13 tickets per showing.

 

T-8 is 1,092 tickets sold (+31.25%).  42.00 tickets per theater or 19.85 tickets per showing.

 

T-4 is 1,464 tickets sold (+34.07%).  56.31 tickets sold per theater or 25.24 tickets per showing.

[lorddemaxus]

32 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Don't know if this has been mentioned but Gladiator II showtimes are starting to appear as well (starts at 2:00 that Thursday, no early access it seems) so it seems like everyone is already banking on it and Wicked (GladiWicked?) being the next Barbenheimer sensation if theaters are already locking in their screens/showtimes for that busy weekend.

I haven’t seen anyone refer to that being the next Barbenheimer except for a couple theater kids on twitter. I don’t think there’s much to look into here

Edited 21 hours ago by lorddemaxus

[leoh]

49 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Don't know if this has been mentioned but Gladiator II showtimes are starting to appear as well (starts at 2:00 that Thursday, no early access it seems) so it seems like everyone is already banking on it and Wicked (GladiWicked?) being the next Barbenheimer sensation if theaters are already locking in their screens/showtimes for that busy weekend.

it’s officially (ish) “glicked”…  😅

[CompoundTheGains]

A couple of the biggest selling locations for Terrifier 3 as of T-4:

 

AMC Empire 25 in New York has 827 tickets sold for Terrifier 3 Thursday-Sunday.  4 showings on Thursday.  Three showings each for Friday-Sunday (13 total showings).  374 of those tickets sold for Thursday.

 

AMC Burbank 16 in California has 795 tickets sold for Terrifier 3 Thursday-Sunday over 19 showings.  431 tickets sold for Thursday over 5 showings.

[Caption Action 3]

Final numbers for open caption sales for Joker 2 Thursday to Sunday After we made the previous post, we came across at least three more incidents of vanishing tickets. Even the superstar locations did poorly. Not even movie-loving New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles could save this excuse for a movie. Compared to the anemic ticket to screentime ratio of 6,54, The Wild Robot the previous weekend had a 25.33 ticket to screentime ratio. Expect this to do even worse next weekend after the few loyal moviegoers and habitual moviegoers have warned people away.

 

 

Joker 2 Nationwide OC
#of tickets/#of screen times	4163	637	6.54
# of Zero solds/# of screen times	60	637	9.42%

[CompoundTheGains]

I did a theater count for Terrifier 3 which is hard because the official website sometimes duplicates a theater when you expand to the next 10 theaters in a state and because for some reason you can not search “New York” as a state like you can every other state... anyways, as a rough number, I have Terrifier 3 currently just shy of about 1,300 theaters.  Obviously some theaters can have multiple screens playing it.  It was said by Erick Opeka-President of Cineverse-on the conference call a couple weeks ago that it was anticipated that this would open on 2,200+ screens.  It will be interesting what more theaters still add the title for this coming weekend and what theaters have multiple screens (and how many showings per screen).  AMC is behind Cinemark and Regal on getting more showings up for opening weekend.  Hopefully the devastation in the southeast and another major hurricane impacting this week doesn’t shut down the theaters there anymore than it already has.  Tough times over there.

Edited 5 hours ago by CompoundTheGains

[Eric Quinn]

Quorum Updates

Saturday Night T-4: 26.57% Awareness, 39.21% Interest

Gladiator II T-46: 43.45% Awareness, 49.12% Interest

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 T-74: 52.21% Awareness, 48.43% Interest

Babygirl T-79: 12.92% Awareness, 33.52% Interest

Dog Man T-116: 15.58% Awareness, 31.75% Interest

 

The Apprentice T-4: 27.39% Awareness, 36.03% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 8% chance of 20M

 

Piece by Piece T-4: 30.53% Awareness, 31.54% Interest

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 25% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 33% chance of 20M

 

Terrifier 3 T-4: 39.76% Awareness, 41.45% Interest

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 44% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 41% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M

 

Smile 2 T-11: 44.37% Awareness, 45.19% Interest

Final Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 47% chance of 20M, 26% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 46% chance of 20M, 23% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 41% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M, 4% chance of 30M

 

Heretic T-32: 13.85% Awareness, 35.51% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 30% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 25% chance of 10M

[Boxofficerules]

 

[Mojoguy]

1 minute ago, Boxofficerules said:

 

Empire is getting a little TOO excited here. 

 

I think $10M OW is more realistic and would be fantasic for Terrifier.