The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[lorddemaxus]

8 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I would caution about getting too ahead of ourselves with Wicked. It will have a fanrush type start because the Ariana Grande fanbase is akin to the Taylor Swift fanbase. The key will be how well it can sustain growth at the bottom of its U curve. 

Yeah, I was actually thinking trackers should add Eras Tour as a comp (although I’m not sure if many of the current trackers tracked Eras Tour)

[Mojoguy]

 

 

[Lory88]

The new The Color Purple?

[vale9001]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I would caution about getting too ahead of ourselves with Wicked. It will have a fanrush type start because the Ariana Grande fanbase is akin to the Taylor Swift fanbase. The key will be how well it can sustain growth at the bottom of its U curve. 

 

Those eras tour >>> end game OW predictions were a moment 🤩

[vale9001]

6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Yeah, I was actually thinking trackers should add Eras Tour as a comp (although I’m not sure if many of the current trackers tracked Eras Tour)

 

No eras tour was a concert. Of course the "impact" of people fan of Just that One person was waaaay more bigger. This is a full movie from a very loved musical brand. The ariana grande fans are impacting these sales for now for sure but of course there are tens of appeal factors about the movie. Not only that One person of a concert.

 

Indeed this is gonna have a better pre sales curve than eras tour. 

Edited 5 hours ago by vale9001

[Ryan C]

9 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I would caution about getting too ahead of ourselves with Wicked. It will have a fanrush type start because the Ariana Grande fanbase is akin to the Taylor Swift fanbase. The key will be how well it can sustain growth at the bottom of its U curve. 

 

With Wicked functioning as an all-audience tentpole during the holiday season, I'd be way more inclined to believe that it won't play exactly like Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour. 

 

I still have to remind myself that Wicked has a massive fanbase that would be the kind to buy tickets really early (as they would for the actual musical), but even then, it seems like the film will get by just fine based off its fanbase alone. 

 

Plus, Wicked is the first of two parts, so even if Part One doesn't break any records or has a massive opening weekend, it can build up a lot more hype/anticipation for Part Two if reviews are good and audiences like it. Basically the musical equivalent of Dune, but with an IP that's a lot more female-skewing. 

[filmlover]

This should have much broader appeal than Eras Tour or The Color Purple did, being an IP-driven tentpole with lots of CGI. Unlike most Broadway adaptations, this is sellable beyond its core demos, which is why the sky is the limit if it gets good reviews (solid possibility there).

[lorddemaxus]

24 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

No eras tour was a concert. Of course the "impact" of people fan of Just that One person was waaaay more bigger. This is a full movie from a very loved musical brand. The ariana grande fans are impacting these sales for now for sure but of course there are tens of appeal factors about the movie. Not only that One person of a concert.

 

Indeed this is gonna have a better pre sales curve than eras tour. 

Im not saying this will follow the Eras trajectory (yeah, it will likely have a better curve). Just that it’d be a good comp to gauge how much of an impact the fanbase rush is impacting sales here

[Grand Cine]

Sorry guys , i take T-10 but Venom 3 is at T-16 , so my estimations are up , previews are around 10% more than venom 2 at this point and friday is around the same but with a less final week than the last movie , i think more about mid 70's maybe high 70's at this point.

Edited 4 hours ago by Grand Cine

[Grand Cine]

42 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

 

 

Nice for the movie , 10M is really a possibility now

[leoh]

30 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Sorry guys , i take T-10 but Venom 3 is at T-16 , so my estimations are up , previews are around 10% more than venom 2 at this point and friday is around the same but with a less final week than the last movie , i think more about mid 70's maybe high 70's at this point.

Both Venom movies had a 8x multiplier, which is particularly impressive for comic book movies.

 

but if it’s currently 10% ahead of LTBC and keep this 10% advantage, we could actually have a 100M opening weekend for Venom. LTBC made 92 million opening weekend. 

Edited 4 hours ago by leoh

[Grand Cine]

17 minutes ago, leoh said:

Both Venom movies had a 8x multiplier, which is particularly impressive for comic book movies.

 

but if it’s currently 10% ahead of LTBC and keep this 10% advantage, we could actually have a 100M opening weekend for Venom. LTBC made 92 million opening weekend. 

But Venom 2 had great final week and i don't expecting as much for this one , i think marketing is little low ( as Smile 2) , i think all the eyes are on Gladiator/Wicked/Moana 2 trio.

[Cmasterclay]

I think Wicked will be a bit frontloaded and all but some people as of this week still seemed to be predicting 60-75m domestic total and it seems crystal clear it is going to blow past that. Also no indication of special group purchases or anything like Color Purple or Eras tour. Been high on it for months, heard it's pretty good too, think it does 250m domestic.

 

Gladiator is more tricky but I don't buy it only doing 40m+ - I think it can at least do the high 50s of Apes and Bad Boys, with potential for John Wick 4 type run if reviews are great.

[keysersoze123]

Wicked sales look even stronger than Gladiator 2. its going to be a very good weekend for BO. Then we have Moana 2 during thanksgiving. It has to make up for disastrous Joker 2(in fact everything post Beetlejuice have been just ok minus Joker 2). 

Edited 3 hours ago by keysersoze123

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think Wicked will be a bit frontloaded and all but some people as of this week still seemed to be predicting 60-75m domestic total and it seems crystal clear it is going to blow past that. Also no indication of special group purchases or anything like Color Purple or Eras tour. Been high on it for months, heard it's pretty good too, think it does 250m domestic.

 

Gladiator is more tricky but I don't buy it only doing 40m+ - I think it can at least do the high 50s of Apes and Bad Boys, with potential for John Wick 4 type run if reviews are great.

I hope for the same on Gladiator 2. Even if it only does 40+ OW it will have the holiday season to stretch its legs as the only real  older male appeal action movie coming out. Assuming it’s good and that audience gets out and goes 

[Ryan C]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wicked sales look even stronger than Gladiator 2. its going to be a very good weekend for BO. Then we have Moana 2 during thanksgiving. It has to make up for disastrous Joker 2(in fact everything post Beetlejuice have been just ok minus Joker 2). 

 

This November will definitely be better than last year's, but I don't think it will be enough to make up for how poorly Joker: Folie à Deux did. 

 

That would require Wicked and Gladiator II to be a Barbenheimer 2.0 and for Moana 2 to open about as high as Inside Out 2. Maybe, but Joker 2 really killed any chances of this year matching or exceeding last year's $9B global domestic total. 

[AnthonyJPHer]

14 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think Wicked will be a bit frontloaded and all but some people as of this week still seemed to be predicting 60-75m domestic total and it seems crystal clear it is going to blow past that. Also no indication of special group purchases or anything like Color Purple or Eras tour. Been high on it for months, heard it's pretty good too, think it does 250m domestic.

 

Gladiator is more tricky but I don't buy it only doing 40m+ - I think it can at least do the high 50s of Apes and Bad Boys, with potential for John Wick 4 type run if reviews are great.

Gladiator might thrive between Moana 2 and Wicked simply because it’s R-rated. November and December are dominated by family films, so it’s possible it can counter program Moana, Wicked, Sonic and Mufasa. And what’s even more crazy is that the only PG-13 film for the entire holiday season is Venom 3. And Joker is dead on arrival so it could just survive because of counter programming. 55m opening weekend and legging out to 175-220m at best. 

[Eric the Clown]

Quorum Updates

Saturday Night T-2: 29.39% Awareness, 39.63% Interest

Venom: The Last Dance T-16: 52.22% Awareness, 53.6% Interest

Here T-23: 19.74% Awareness, 41.79% Interest

Companion T-93: 9.42% Awareness, 33.34% Interest

Last Breath T-142: 16.67% Awareness, 38% Interest

A Minecraft Movie T-177: 32.91% Awareness, 36.67% Interest

 

The Apprentice T-2: 31.37% Awareness, 36.28% Interest

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 27% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 8% chance of 20M

 

Piece by Piece T-2: 32.68% Awareness, 32.02% Interest

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 25% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 33% chance of 20M

 

Terrifier 3 T-2: 40.07% Awareness, 42.37% Interest

Final Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 47% chance of 20M, 26% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 46% chance of 20M, 23% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 41% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M

 

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever T-30: 15.39% Awareness, 34.36% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 30% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 50% chance of 10M

[CompoundTheGains]

Terrifier 3 Massachusetts presale update.   
Thursday Oct 10 showings only.   
21 theaters.   
55 showings (+8 since T-3).   
   
T-21 was 476 tickets sold.  22.667 tickets per theater or 11.333 tickets per showing.   
    
T-17 is 664 tickets sold (+39.5%).  31.62 tickets per theater or 15.81 tickets per showing.   
   
T-13 (12pm EST) is 749 tickets sold (+12.8%).  35.67 tickets per theater or 17.83 tickets per showing.   
  
T-8 (1:30pm EST) is 993 tickets sold (+32.58%).  47.29 tickets per theater or 23.64 tickets per showing. 
 
T-6 (1:00pm EST) is 1,169 tickets sold (+17.72% in 2 days).  55.67 tickets per theater or 26.57 tickets per showing. 
 
T-3 (8:20pm EST) is 1,531 tickets sold (+30.97%).  72.90 tickets per theater or 32.57 tickets per showing.

 

T-1 (3:30pm EST) is 1,850 tickets sold (+20.84%).  88.10 tickets per theater or 33.64 tickets per showing.

 

Still growing!

[AnthonyJPHer]

25 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

This November will definitely be better than last year's, but I don't think it will be enough to make up for how poorly Joker: Folie à Deux did. 

 

That would require Wicked and Gladiator II to be a Barbenheimer 2.0 and for Moana 2 to open about as high as Inside Out 2. Maybe, but Joker 2 really killed any chances of this year matching or exceeding last year's $9B global domestic total. 

Joker bombing was unfortunate but not the death blow to 9B. The year isn’t over yet. If Venom, Smile, Wicked, Red One and Gladiator all bomb or underperform before Moana 2, then yeah, 9B is basically dead and so is beating 2023