The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

58 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

Alamo Drafthouse Chicago (Gladiator II VS. Wicked: Part 1)

 

Gladiator II	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	56	195	28.7%
Friday	55	260	21.2%
Saturday	40	260	15.4%
Sunday	21	260	8.1%
Wicked	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	234	309	75.7%
Friday	212	412	51.5%
Saturday	276	412	67.0%
Sunday	194	412	47.1%

 

I assume that is still pretty good for Gladiator II  it just that Wicked is such a monster it throws it off and makes it look much worse?

[vale9001]

8 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I assume that is still pretty good for Gladiator II  it just that Wicked is such a monster it throws it off and makes it look much worse?

 

 

If you look to alamo theaters and his percentage of tickets sold 40 days before for these movies Wicked should open with 270M and gladiator with 110M.

 

Like I explained this chain always over index in very early Sales.

Edited yesterday at 02:29 PM by vale9001

[Spidey Freak]

13 hours ago, AniNate said:

I said it in the Gladiator thread but I do actually feel like that movie could've worked as a post-election catharsis. Whoever wins, the other side will want to be indulging some bloodlust afterwards and that would be a way to fantasize about it without hurting anyone.

 

By this logic, Wicked should be monstrous in case of a Trump win (though I'm pretty sure that factor did play into live action BatB and Wonder Woman breaking out the way they did back in the first 6 months of his presidency)

[AniNate]

I wasn't really thinking in that kind of long-term frame. November 2016 did end up being a pretty solid box office month, though not so much bigger that it couldn't simply be attributed to more interesting products on offer. 

[jeffthehat]

Indiana 

Smile 2 T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
372	10171	60

Comps

0.83x Trap = $1.8m

0.67x Longlegs = $2.0m

2.73x Imaginary = $2.0m

0.95x Terrifier 3 = $2.3m

 

AVG = $2.03m

 

2 theaters are having issues so comps could be undershooting 5-10% 

 

 

[Eric is Smiling]

I guess this is the best place to put it? My Regal just updated their showtimes for this weekend, and Smile 2 has 4DX and RPX, while IMAX is shared with Wild Robot in the afternoon and Beetlejuice in the evening (oh and Deadpool has ScreenX, but nobody likes ScreenX, so who cares?).

 

Will say I was half-convinced Joker was going to be like Birds of Prey where it would still have IMAX for three weeks, even though it absolutely did not deserve it. But on the other hand, the fact that Smile 2 isn't getting the most popular PLF format of them all really says a lot about Paramount/exhibitors' confidence on it. Which is uh...yeah.

[DAJK]

Unless the movie completely sucks (which, based on reactions, I don't think is the case) I have no idea what Paramount is thinking fumbling Smile 2 like this. The first wasn't just a hit, but a WOM monster. Horror movies grossing 5x their wide opening weekend is unheard of. It's an easily recognizable premise, with a marketable sequel hook. This movie should AT LEAST be outgrossing the first on opening weekend by a healthy margin. 

[AniNate]

I wonder if Terrifier and to some extent even The Substance have just stolen its thunder. Smile just might be "so 2022".

[filmpalace]

23 hours ago, filmpalace said:

Smile 2 T-3

 

Tickets sold: 155 (+10)

Growth: 7%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 7

 

3,03x Speak No Evil (T-3) – 4,0M

0,91x Terrifier 3 (T-3) – 2,2M

 

Average: 3,1M

Smile 2 T-2

 

Tickets sold: 177 (+22)

Growth: 14%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 7

 

2,46x Speak No Evil (T-2) – 3,2M

0,91x Terrifier 3 (T-2) – 2,2M

14,75x Never Let Go (T-2) – 5,3M

8,43x The Substance (T-2) – 2,8M

 

Average: 3,4M

 

Though not uncommon for horror, growth hasn’t been that high these past few days. I’m not too worried yet, but It should definitely be accelerating now. Especially with the T-Mobile deal starting today.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/30/2024 at 6:26 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

SMILE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
341	816	69504	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-17

(0.431x) of Quiet Place: Day One $2.93M

(0.991x) of Civil War $2.88M

Comps AVG: $2.91

 

Pretty good start to presales. If it stays at this level, could be around $30M OW

FLORIDA 

SMILE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
386	2226	79004	2.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

190

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.861x) of Civil War $2.50M

(1.227x) of Trap $2.70M

Comps AVG: $2.60M

 

Pace has been meh. Thinking $2.5M previews as of now for $25M OW

[leoh]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

SMILE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
386	2226	79004	2.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

190

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.861x) of Civil War $2.50M

(1.227x) of Trap $2.70M

Comps AVG: $2.60M

 

Pace has been meh. Thinking $2.5M previews as of now for $25M OW

oh I wasn’t expecting Smile 2 to slump like that… Terrifier breakout may have damaged Smile sales I guess…

Edited 17 hours ago by leoh

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/2/2024 at 6:54 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
618	2474	126946	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

337

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-22

(0.515x) of Beetlejuice $5.05M

(0.616x) of Dune 2 $5.73M

(0.118x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $4.53M

Comps AVG: $5.10M

 

Strong day 2. Increased nicely against all comps 

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
674	4819	141395	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-9

(1.049x) of Joker Folie a Deux $6.61M

(0.807x) of Dune 2 $7.50M

(0.180x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.93M

Comps AVG: $7.01M

 

Looks like $7M previews to me. Like i said a few weeks ago, not bad but also not great. 

 

 

[leoh]

42 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
674	4819	141395	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-9

(1.049x) of Joker Folie a Deux $6.61M

(0.807x) of Dune 2 $7.50M

(0.180x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.93M

Comps AVG: $7.01M

 

Looks like $7M previews to me. Like i said a few weeks ago, not bad but also not great. 

 

 

Is this including the Fan Event showings  that are also happening on Thursday?
 

The good news is that it’s  improving significantly against the comps, particularly well against DW comp, which is a good sign. Let’s see how it paces from now on. Friday it has a primetime panel in NY Comic Con, which should help to increase the marketing buzz.

Edited 17 hours ago by leoh

[misterpepp]

Godzilla Minus One back in theaters for at least a full week on November 1, I'll look around for the sale date.

[Ryan C]

23 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Smile 2

 

T-3

 

Thursday: 1,217 Seats Sold (180.4% Increase From Last Time)

From 15 Theaters

 

Taken as of 9:30 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: About 36% of the seats sold right now are for the "Fan Event" screenings, but it doesn't really matter as these start on the same day as the actual Thursday previews (which begin at 7:00 PM). 

 

Anyways, I'm slightly less confident about this than I was a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, nothing's really pointing towards this becoming a breakout horror sequel (ala Terrifier 3), but I'd still expect an opening on par with the first movie ($22.6M). At best, maybe it can hit $30M, but that'll depend on strong walk-up business (which the first Smile had) and hopefully good reception. Though Paramount holding the reviews until this weekend isn't very encouraging. 

 

We'll see how this does in the next few days (and when more showtimes are added), but I wouldn't expect some kind of crazy jump or anything like that. 

 

Smile 2

 

T-2

 

Thursday: 1,468 Seats Sold (20.6% Increase From Last Time)

From 15 Theaters

 

Taken as of 9:25 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: A decent increase from yesterday (more showtimes were added), but this still isn't really pointing towards this becoming a breakout. 

 

The hope really lies in this having a good final day (like Terrifier 3) to keep this one within the range of a $25M-$30M opening weekend, but if not, then an opening in the low $20M range is probably gonna happen. 

Edited 17 hours ago by Ryan C

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, DAJK said:

Unless the movie completely sucks (which, based on reactions, I don't think is the case) I have no idea what Paramount is thinking fumbling Smile 2 like this. The first wasn't just a hit, but a WOM monster. Horror movies grossing 5x their wide opening weekend is unheard of. It's an easily recognizable premise, with a marketable sequel hook. This movie should AT LEAST be outgrossing the first on opening weekend by a healthy margin. 

I wonder if it was a mistake to call this "Smile 2" instead of going with a new title + "A Smile (Story/Tale/fill in the blank)" cause the movie appears closer to a spin-off than a direct continuation of its predecessor for the most part (only one major character from the first is returning for this and - no spoilers, it's in the trailers - said character appears to bite the dust).

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Smile 2: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 0 Tickets
Theater 2: 5 Tickets

 

Speak No Evil: $.65M
Abigail: $1.25M
Thanksgiving: $.63M
Saw X: $1.00M
The Nun 2: $.82M 

Smile: $.83M

 

Really not great for a sequel. Can be anywhere from $.6M-$1.25M for now

Smile 2:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 1 Ticket

Theater 2: 9 Tickets

 

Speak No Evil: $1.00M

Abigail: $1.43M

Thanksgiving: $.91M

Saw X: $2.00M

The Nun 2: $.97M 

Smile: $1.25M

 

Good pick up in pace, even though sale jumps were rather low. Feeling safe at $1.25M+ for now

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 10 Tickets

Theater 2: 21 Tickets

 

Speak No Evil: $8.47M

Abigail: $15.68M

Thanksgiving: $12.52M

Saw X: $5.97M

The Nun 2: $8.38M 

Smile: $9.20M

 

A bit varied, but I can see this averaging out anywhere from $6M-$8M

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Smile 2 (T-3)

 

4 showtimes/73 tix sold (+32)

 

.89x Speak No Evil (T-3) [1.16m]

1.00x The Watchers (T-3) [1.00m]
 

until yesterday this only had two showtimes allocated… not sure who wants this to fail. It doesn’t make much sense either since there’s not any big openers or holdovers this weekend. Hopefully it can get more showtimes allocated before Thursday

Smile 2 (T-2)

 

9 showtimes/98 tix sold (+25)

 

.89x Speak No Evil (T-2) [1.16m]

1.11x The Watchers (T-2) [1.11m]

 

Nice to see more showings but pace dropped which isn’t what you want to see. Tomorrow should be at least 50 tix sold hopefully

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Venom 3 (T-10)

 

25 showtimes/174 tix sold (+5)

 

Missed AQP Day One (T-10) [???]
.70x Beetlejuice 2 (T-10) [6.86m]
Missed Deadpool 3 (T-10) [???]

1.47x Bad Boys 4 (T-10) [8.20m]

 

Doesn’t look like it’s going to have a crazy acceleration like Venom 2 as of right now.

Venom 3 (T-9)

 

25 showtimes/188 tix sold (+14)

 

.93x AQP Day One (T-9) [6.32m]
.70x Beetlejuice 2 (T-9) [6.86m]
.111x Deadpool 3 (T-9) [4.27m]

1.57x Bad Boys 4 (T-9) [8.75m]
 

Better than before but still not anything crazy.

[Flip]

On 10/12/2024 at 10:53 PM, Flip said:

Venom 3 Friday (T-13)

 

31 showtimes/127 tix sold

 

Missed Beetlejuice 2 (T-13) [???]

1.69x Alien Romulus (T-13) [19.57m]
 

a little bit underwhelming, really has been the story of most of Venom 3’s presale run so far

Venom 3 Friday (T-10)

 

31 showtimes/155 tix sold (+28)

 

.58x Beetlejuice 2 (T-10) [16.72m]

1.46x Alien Romulus (T-10) [16.91m]

 

As of now I think the weekend could go like 8-21-26-18 but we’ll see.