The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Cmasterclay]

Really disappointing, predicting this as the September record has been my big swing of the year all year and it looked like it was going to get there, 100m is still alright for it but probably caps it at about 230m domestic or so based on M37's analysis of September legs.

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Really disappointing, predicting this as the September record has been my big swing of the year all year and it looked like it was going to get there, 100m is still alright for it but probably caps it at about 230m domestic or so based on M37's analysis of September legs.

 

$230M from a $100M opening? 

 

I'm sorry but the film is most likely not gonna be that frontloaded. Even if it will have competition with Transformers One and The Wild Robot later in the month, it will still be a very popular option for families to go see (especially during spooky season). 

 

I's say $250M domestic at worst and between $300M-$325M at best. 

[AnthonyJPHer]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Really disappointing, predicting this as the September record has been my big swing of the year all year and it looked like it was going to get there, 100m is still alright for it but probably caps it at about 230m domestic or so based on M37's analysis of September legs.

We don’t even have Thursday preview numbers yet. This feels eerily similar to Inside Out 2 where people saw a disappointing final week but walk up’s were so good it didn’t matter. 

[AniNate]

I suppose mood whiplash is an inevitability in a human community but man I wish people would learn from the past better.

[Cmasterclay]

7 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

We don’t even have Thursday preview numbers yet. This feels eerily similar to Inside Out 2 where people saw a disappointing final week but walk up’s were so good it didn’t matter. 

Let's hope so! That has indeed been the pattern this year, and with the family friendly nature and the NFL conflict tonight, it's certainly possible!

[AniNate]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Let's hope so! That has indeed been the pattern this year, and with the family friendly nature and the NFL conflict tonight, it's certainly possible!

 

Maybe in the future consider factors like this first before dooming?

[filmlover]

The sales for the overall weekend look very strong near me. Definitely reinforcing that this will play like a family film on some level, especially with all the marketing tie-ins the movie has had.

[Cmasterclay]

9 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Maybe in the future consider factors like this first before dooming?

Yeah I mean I've said 100 times I just listen to what keyser says on pre-release projections and M37 says on legs. Same with predictions on politics or sports - sure, unexpected things happen all the time, underdogs win, upsets happen, but if you were a betting person, you should trust the data, expert, and polls. I hope he is wrong, and like I said, I can see variables for him being wrong or underestimating. But in predictions and expectations setting, you will be right more than wrong if you go with what the numbers say.

 

I'm allowed to be slightly disappointed in the numbers that the prediction guru is projecting without being attacked for dooming again.

Edited September 5 by Cmasterclay

[AnthonyJPHer]

 

Widest release of the year, beating Inside Out 2. The biggest since Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 

[AniNate]

Surprisingly my local theater got rid of both Inside out and Despicable Me. Only PG showtime left is a 10AM Coraline and The Forge. Guess they're banking on families filling up Beetlejuice

 

 

Edited September 5 by AniNate

[Shawn Robbins]

 

[vafrow]

8 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-1, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Previews

Total Sales: 270

New Sales: 52

Growth: 24%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Tickets per Showtime: 7.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 25/11

Early Evening: 165/13

Late Evening: 80/14

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 19/9

Dolby: 96/9

VIP: 132/11

IMAX: 11/6

4DX: 12/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

3.418x TFG for $8.0M

1.179x Twisters for $9.4M

1.824x GB:FE for $8.6M

0.408x GxK for $4.1M

 

Average: $7.5M

 

Growth rates remain unimpressive, with some comps fully imploding here at the end.

 

There's so many unique factors going on here that it's going to be the larger chain wide samples that provides the best outlook.

 

Friday sales look strong, so I'm guessing that it still performs well over the weekend, but if just looking through my local lens, Thursday previews will struggle to hit double digits on true Thursday.

 

 

Walk ups have resulted in a 30% increase today as of 3:00 pm, which is on the low side of expectations.

 

[Flip]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

It feels like pretty much every big movie this year followed this same pattern: strong presales cycle pointing to big OW, followed by a disappointing final week bringing expectations down, and a late surge in walkups that bring it up again.

 

Let’s see if it happens here. But i’m more than fine with 105M or so if it didn’t.

The only movie that really followed this was Dune 2: IO2, KFP4, Godzilla, Twisters, DM4 (to a lesser extent) had very good last few days. Deadpool didn’t have an insanely strong ending, but it wasn’t weak and IIRC everyone was thinking low 30s before release week but even before walkups most had switched to projecting ~35m

[jeffthehat]

21 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
4028	47614	277

True Thursday Comps

2.23x Ghostbusters FE = $10.5m

1.61x It Ends With Us = $11.2m

1.32x Dune 2 = $13.2m

1.92x Twisters = $15.7m

 

AVG = $12.67m

 

Average dropped again, but I'm using overperformers as comps so still kinda bullish on the final number. Fall Guy and Alien Romulus show around $15m. IO2 had 4516 sales at T-0, guessing this will hit 5200+. We'll see 

Indiana

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
5094	48826	291

True Thursday Comps

1.58x It Ends With Us = $11.1m 

0.31x Deadpool & Wolverine = $11.8m

1.62x Twisters = $13.3m

1.42x Dune 2 = $14.2m

 

AVG = $12.58m

 

Fell shy of my target. Def didn't pace well down the home stretch. But the average is high and comps are overperformers so I'd guess it hits $11m+ 

[Ryan C]

On 9/3/2024 at 2:07 AM, Ryan C said:

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

 

T-2

 

Wednesday - Early Access Showings: 2,268 Seats Sold (5.6% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday: 3,761 Seats Sold (11.3% Increase From Last Time)

= 6,029 Seats Sold (9% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 1:55AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Didn't think I would be tracking this one again until Wednesday, but I just had the urge to do it again. Everything I said last time pretty much still stands, but I'm seeing some encouraging signs for both walk-up business and further acceleration for pre-sales these next couple of days. 

 

Also, if @charlie Jatinder's $3.5M EA projection is true and we're all expecting at the very least $10M in actual Thursday previews, I cannot see how this misses $100M over the weekend. It would have to be stupidly frontloaded to not reach that and since we're in September, there's like almost no chance of that happening.

 

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

 

T-0

 

Thursday: 5,244 Seats Sold (39.4% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 3:15PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: At one of the local theaters that I tracked, every single showing (which there was quite a lot) were sold out. Obviously, that couldn't be right, so I have to assume that something happened at that specific theater to the point where they can't show the film. The number of seats sold would've been significantly higher had I been able to track pre-sales at that theater. 

 

Nevertheless, I'm starting to take that maybe Thursday won't be that big of a day. Not to sound incredibly pessimistic when I sounded pretty optimistic yesterday, but we're still talking about a movie that's releasing at the beginning of September (when everyone is going back to school or work), doesn't have an immediate fan-rush to see it, and has appeal to families. It's why I think Saturday and Sunday are going to be more crucial days to see how high this movie goes compared to Thursday or even Friday. 

 

If these next couple of days bring in strong walk-up business, then we could see 2017's It surrender the crown for the biggest September opening to the Ghost with the Most. If not, then we're probably looking at an opening between $100M-$110M (right on que with tracking). 

 

For now though, if Thursday previews (without Wednesday's numbers rolled in) come in at $10M or above, then $100M is definitely gonna happen. It's just a mystery as to how much higher it can get beyond that. 

[Flip]

15 hours ago, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-1)

 

32 showtimes/675 tix sold (+129)

 

1.33x AQP Day One (T-1) [9.04m]
1.79x Alien: Romulus (T-2) [11.64m]
1.00x Inside Out 2 (T-1) [13.0m]

 

better day pace wise than yesterday (I probably overestimated the EA effect: none of the theaters I track have PLF but they are in the vicinity of ones that do). Not sure how tomorrow will go. Minimum tickets sold that would be acceptable (i.e. basically guaranteeing 10m + Thurs) is 250 tickets, but I’m expecting anywhere between 265-280.

 

for comparison, the final day of IO2 sold 304, AQP did 196. If it sells IO2 levels then 12m+ would be more likely than not.

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-0)

 

32 showtimes/866 tix sold (+191)

 

 

1.23x AQP Day One (T-0) [8.36m]
Missed Alien: Romulus (T-0) 
.88x Inside Out 2 (T-0) [11.44m]

 

Pretty bad final day: managed to sell less than AQP, it somehow sold worse than Twisters even when it had >2x the sales at T-1. AQP was a slow finisher (it went from having 53% more sales than BB4 at T-3 to being behind it by T-0, so for Beetlejuice to lag behind AQP is especially bad. Anyways, it’s not all doom and gloom since OW will still be big + Friday is looking better, but relative to expectations this has been disappointing.

 

Prediction: 9.8-10.4m (For Pure Thursday)

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

BEETLEJUICE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
893	13666	187104	7.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2035

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.191x) of Dune 2 $11.07M

(0.274x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $10.55M

Comps AVG: $10.81M

 

Pretty good jump today. Good sign for walkups tomorrow

FLORIDA 

BEETLEJUICE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
893	15870	187104	8.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2204

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(1.163x) of Dune 2 $10.82M

(0.268x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $10.32M

Comps AVG: $10.57M

 

Meh finish. Was pointing to $10.8M true Thursday yesterday. More like $10.5M today. Probably gets reported as $13M previews with EA.

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

 

Widest release of the year, beating Inside Out 2. The biggest since Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 

Widest release of all time for September movie , 7th biggest of all time , equal to Toy Story 4. Widest release of all time for a WB Movie, 2nd Widest for a non summer movie , after Endgame.

Edited September 5 by Grand Cine

[CheeseWizard]

3 hours ago, Ryan C said:

, it will still be a very popular option for families to go see

Really? I’d have thought the macabre setting would turn away families with younger kids tbh.

[ThomasNicole]

2 hours ago, Flip said:

The only movie that really followed this was Dune 2: IO2, KFP4, Godzilla, Twisters, DM4 (to a lesser extent) had very good last few days. Deadpool didn’t have an insanely strong ending, but it wasn’t weak and IIRC everyone was thinking low 30s before release week but even before walkups most had switched to projecting ~35m

IO2 was coming down until the very late surge. The OW was a surprise after the final week of presales suggesting some frontloadness.
 

Twisters are pointing big but it did stronger than final days suggest too. Same for DM4. Dune 2 was only more extreme than those.

 

I’m not saying Beetlejuice will explode and do 150M. I’m just saying it can back up to 115-120M if this happens again instead of 105-110M that the final days are suggesting. 

Edited September 5 by ThomasNicole