The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[dudalb]

reallly intested in how well Focus's counterprogramming with Conclave works against Venom 3.

What alot of people here will probably not get is that COnclaveis not trying to attract people away from Venom 3, they hope to attract viewers who are simply not interested in Venom 3. Calssic counterprogramming strategy; first real example was in 2006 opening ;Devil Wears Prada against Superman Returns. 

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, dudalb said:

reallly intested in how well Focus's counterprogramming with Conclave works against Venom 3.

What alot of people here will probably not get is that COnclaveis not trying to attract people away from Venom 3, they hope to attract viewers who are simply not interested in Venom 3. Calssic counterprogramming strategy; first real example was in 2006 opening ;Devil Wears Prada against Superman Returns. 

I'm not really expecting much from Conclave tbh. If it makes more than $20M total I'll be impressed.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/15/2024 at 6:26 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

SMILE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
386	2226	79004	2.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

190

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.861x) of Civil War $2.50M

(1.227x) of Trap $2.70M

Comps AVG: $2.60M

 

Pace has been meh. Thinking $2.5M previews as of now for $25M OW

FLORIDA 

SMILE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
393	3516	80834	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

935

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

COMPS

T-0

(0.818x) of Civil War $2.37M

(1.108x) of Trap $2.44M

Comps AVG: $2.41M

 

Yeah, calling it at $2.5M previews. Don't see it going below $20M OW, probably closer to $25M

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Could that be thrown off by the T-Mobile deal? Think it was confirmed it wasn’t eligible for use on Thursday. 

 

No, you can use it Thursday, but so many TMobile folks tend to wait and enjoy the movie on their time...so Friday and Saturday nights tend to do well...not so much Thursdays...

[leoh]

49 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

SMILE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
393	3516	80834	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

935

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

COMPS

T-0

(0.818x) of Civil War $2.37M

(1.108x) of Trap $2.44M

Comps AVG: $2.41M

 

Yeah, calling it at $2.5M previews. Don't see it going below $20M OW, probably closer to $25M

so you think T Mobile promo can make it get closer to 30M?

 

the first one is so good!🥹

Edited 6 hours ago by leoh

[filmpalace]

23 hours ago, filmpalace said:

Smile 2 T-1

 

Tickets sold: 218 (+41)

Growth: 23%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 8

 

2,10x Speak No Evil (T-1) – 2,7M

0,97x Terrifier 3 (T-1) – 2,3M

9,90x Never Let Go (T-1) – 3,6M

7,52x The Substance (T-1) – 2,5M

 

Average: 2,8M

 

Bad growth for T-1. Hoping for a strong final day to get it around 3M, but for now I’d guess this will end up with ~2.5M

Smile 2 T-0

 

Tickets sold: 282 (+64)

Growth: 29%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 8

 

1,74x Speak No Evil (T-0) – 2,3M

0,94x Terrifier 3 (T-0) – 2,3M

7,23x Never Let Go (T-0) – 2,6M

4,78x The Substance (T-0) – 1,6M

 

Average: 2,2M

 

Meh finish. I’m also predicting 2.5M (+/- 0.2M)

[TheFlatLannister]

50 minutes ago, leoh said:

so you think T Mobile promo can make it get closer to 30M?

 

the first one is so good!🥹

$30M might be a tall task. I would say $25M is best case scenario 

[Ryan C]

21 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Smile 2

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 1,789 Seats Sold (21.8% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 9:15 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Again, tomorrow will tell us a better idea of where this is heading, but this still tells me that we're in for at least a $20M opening weekend. That, and anything between $2M-$3M in previews. 

 

Pace has (thankfully) been steady and an extra theater was added, but this needs to have good walk-up business over the weekend if it wants to go any higher than $25M. The good reactions so far should help though. 

 

Smile 2

 

T-0

 

Thursday: 2,665 Seats Sold (48.9% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 6:55 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I was going to originally post this a couple of hours earlier, but I decided to wait until we got closer to the non "Fan Event" showtimes starting point (7:00). Though keep in mind that the final number of seats sold does also include the "Fan Event screenings," which I tracked before any of them started. About 600 of the 2,665 seats sold (22.5%) come from those screenings. 

 

Anyways, this is a pretty good final jump. It's just below Terrifier 3's jump from Wednesday to Thursday (48.9% to 51.1%), but this does bode well for walk-up business over the weekend and for a final Thursday preview number of either $2.5M or $3M. The latter may be a bit tough to reach, but I would be worried if it doesn't come in higher than $2.25M. At the very least, it should be a bit higher than the first Smile's $2M Thursday preview number. 

 

As far as the weekend goes, anything between $20M-$25M seems pretty doable. Hopefully it does a bit better, but this is looking like a horror sequel that won't push far beyond it's own weight. Still a success (especially with a reported $28M budget), but not going to be the breakout that a lot of people assumed.

[vafrow]

Growth today on Smile is still in line with the trends I've seen all week. I didn't do a proper count, but it's somewhere between double or triple where it started the day.

 

I don't know what's happening in this market but there's clearly enthusiasm here that isn't shared elsewhere.

[Shawn Robbins]

5 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

I expect better drops for Terrifier 3 , but the estimations of Smile 2 and TWR are the same as me.

 

Tomorrow first Wicked/Gladiator predictions !!! (for me it will be 80-120M for Wicked OW and 40-60M OW for Gladiator 2).

I was tempted to give more to Terrifier 3's hold as well. Just wondering there has to be a cap to its casual horror fan appeal at some point (especially with Smile 2 cutting into it, although that sword definitely cuts both ways)... but I could be wrong. 

[Eric is Smiling]

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-where-is-captain-america-brave-new-world/

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[wattage]

17 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Deadpool and Wolverine getting an expansion, they don't want to leave anything to chance I see. 

[Cooper Legion]

9 hours ago, M37 said:

RE: Smile 2’s IM, seems like most people are penciling in 10x or more. However, keep in mind that the previews/weekend pattern of the original was impacted to some degree by Hurricane Ian buzzing through Florida and up the SE coast, all of which is typically a good market for horror.
 

Last fall, both Saw X and Exorcist were closer to 9x than 10x, and we shouldn’t be surprised with like $2.3/$22M result here

I don't think this will drag down the IM *too* much but its also a sequel instead of an original. Definitely pencil me for a bit under 10x

[Flip]

On 10/14/2024 at 10:53 PM, Flip said:

Wicked 2 (T-38)

 

15 showtimes/585 tix sold (+35)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-38) [???]
7.22x Gladiator 2 (T-38) [???]

Wicked 2 (T-35) 3 days of sales

 

15 showtimes/613 tix sold (+28)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-35) [???]
7.39x Gladiator 2 (T-35) [???]

 

not only are the raw numbers very strong, but so is the pace which is a little surprising.

[Flip]

On 10/14/2024 at 10:43 PM, Flip said:

Gladiator 2 (T-38) 3 days of sales

 

14 showtimes/81 tix sold (+8)

1.17x AQP Day One (T-28) [7.96m]
1.98x Twisters 2nd Day (T-38) [14.85m]

Gladiator 2 (T-35) 3 days of sales

 

14 showtimes/83 tix sold (+2)

1.20x AQP Day One (T-28) [8.16m]
Missed Twisters (T-35) [???]

 

Looks like this will pace like twisters: really small growth until the final 2 and a half weeks. If so it’s probably heading for 7.5m previews, give or take a million

[emoviefan]

26 minutes ago, Flip said:

Gladiator 2 (T-35) 3 days of sales

 

14 showtimes/83 tix sold (+2)

1.20x AQP Day One (T-28) [8.16m]
Missed Twisters (T-35) [???]

 

Looks like this will pace like twisters: really small growth until the final 2 and a half weeks. If so it’s probably heading for 7.5m previews, give or take a million

7.5 would be pretty good for a movie that will appeal to a older casual audience that will be in no rush to see it as early as possible. 

[Flip]

21 hours ago, Flip said:

Venom 3 (T-8)

 

25 showtimes/208 tix sold (+20)

 

.96x AQP Day One (T-8) [6.53m]
.75x Beetlejuice 2 (T-8) [7.35m]
.118x Deadpool 3 (T-8) [4.54m]

1.65x Bad Boys 4 (T-8) [9.20m]

 

This might be the start of a massive ramp up… but tomorrow needs to sell at least equal with today.

Venom 3 (T-7)

 

25 showtimes/222 tix sold (+14)

 

.96x AQP Day One (T-7) [6.53m]
.76x Beetlejuice 2 (T-7) [7.45m]
1.41x Alien Romulus (T-7) [9.17m]

1.69x Bad Boys 4 (T-7) [9.93m]
 

Pace isn’t bad, in fact it’s good, but there just doesn’t seem to be any explosion happening. Tomorrow was when Beetlejuice started to ramp up (went from 13->29 tickets sold) so I hope Venom can emulate it or maybe it might emulate BB4 which stayed stagnant. Pace is good enough overall that I think barring a massive dearth of sales $7m previews is guaranteed

[Flip]

On 10/15/2024 at 10:43 PM, Flip said:

Venom 3 Friday (T-10)

 

31 showtimes/155 tix sold (+28)

 

.58x Beetlejuice 2 (T-10) [16.72m]

1.46x Alien Romulus (T-10) [16.91m]

 

As of now I think the weekend could go like 8-21-26-18 but we’ll see.

Venom 3 Friday (T-8)

 

31 showtimes/175 tix sold (+20)

 

.51x Beetlejuice 2 (T-8) [14.70m]

Missed Alien Romulus (T-8) [???]

[crazymoviekid]

On 10/16/2024 at 11:14 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Smile 2:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 4 Tickets

Theater 2: 15 Tickets

 

Speak No Evil: $1.65M

Abigail: $1.36M

Thanksgiving: $1.36M

Saw X: $2.00M

The Nun 2: $1.31M 

Smile: $1.18M

 

Some good jumps. Still not breaking out. $1.25M+ is still looking strong.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 16 Tickets
Theater 2: 24 Tickets

 

Speak No Evil: $6.18M
Abigail: $13.48M
Thanksgiving: $11.31M
Saw X: $4.77M
The Nun 2: $7.41M 
Smile: $4.99M

 

Some heavier drops today.  Being safe at $4.5M+

Smile 2:

 

Final Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 9 Tickets
Theater 2: 37 Tickets

 

Speak No Evil: $1.57M
Abigail: $3.07M
Thanksgiving: $1.84M
Saw X: $2.49M
The Nun 2: $2.23M 
Smile: $1.33M

 

Very good final jump. Going for $1.5M+

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 47 Tickets
Theater 2: 40 Tickets

 

Speak No Evil: $7.93M
Abigail: $25.00M
Thanksgiving: $11.71M
Saw X: $7.21M
The Nun 2: $9.57M 
Smile: $5.96M

 

Great day!  Back in a safe $7M start.