The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

What if it’s under $70M?

 

69.420 would be ideal.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

So @charlie Jatinder thinks Smile 2 will do just 2m in previews. I thought it will do high 2s. It had some imax shows as well unlike most horror flicks and did well with walkups. So its ATP was higher than most movies. 

2M - 2.5M

potato tomato

[Shawn Robbins]

 

[justnumbers]

Oh damn. Venom to 47M-72M, pinpoint at 61M now 

[lorddemaxus]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

69.420 would be ideal.

 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Here feels DOA tbh. At least it's not being totally dumped with zero fanfare like Juror #2 is.

Hopefully at least 10M ow.

[TheFlatLannister]

Venom is doing okay in Florida. It's now starting to slightly outpace Joker 2, but that's a low bar. Thursday fan events are making up 13% of total sales here. 

 

I'm not even sure about $60M right now, let alone $70M

[leoh]

6 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Venom is doing okay in Florida. It's now starting to slightly outpace Joker 2, but that's a low bar. Thursday fan events are making up 13% of total sales here. 

 

I'm not even sure about $60M right now, let alone $70M

Florida update tonight?

 

I remember it jumped from 4.5M to 6.8M against D&W comp in your last update. So hopefully it can keep increasing the pace.

 

Edited 11 hours ago by leoh

[Grand Cine]

19 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

 

Damn , good projections for Gladiator and Incredible for Wicked .

[leoh]

3 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Damn , good projections for Gladiator and Incredible for Wicked .

 Glicked or Wickiator?

 

It’d be great both making together 200M opening before the thanksgiving weekend.

Edited 11 hours ago by leoh

[keysersoze123]

I dont have any visibility into friday or later BO and we dont have the same data as when the last movie opened. But Venom 3 missing 50m sounds incredible based on preview data I am seeing. 

 

Gladiator has sold < 1/3 of wicked and this is without wednesday shows for wicked which has sold like uber blockbuster. So for Gladiator to hit high end, it has to do better than what Oppenheimer did last year. Wont be easy. I am thinking 40-50m OW for it at this point. Wicked should open > 100m. 

 

Also release schedule is incredibly weak between Venom 3 and Glicked. Holdovers that are doing well like Wild Robot and Beetlejuice could benefit from it. 

Edited 11 hours ago by keysersoze123

[M37]

Wicked

$96,000,000

$150,000,000

$135,000,000

 

 

Spoiler

I suppose I'm going to have to actually dive into numbers (rather than just skim) and see why the $100M+ train for Wicked is apparently getting so packed

 

[TheFlatLannister]

28 minutes ago, leoh said:

Florida update tonight?

 

I remember it jumped from 4.5M to 6.8M against D&W comp in your last update. So hopefully it can keep increasing the pace.

 

yeah, i'll probably update tonight 

[keysersoze123]

Wicked early shows on wednesday have to be widest I have seen for any movie so far. It has Imax/PLF and even 3D shows listed. Big theaters are playing half a dozen shows. I am expecting 5m+ or even more depending on show count close to release. Thursday should hit low double digits or even low teens. OW should not have an issue hitting 100m+. Hitting high end of Shawn's prediction would need buzz to hit a crescendo near release. Possible but I dont want to make that call now. 

[TomThomas]

So people suddenty like musicals now? Especially as questionable as Wicked.

[Rageofthegods]

22 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

So people suddenty like musicals now? Especially as questionable as Wicked.

I think Wicked is just its own beast. The current highest-grossing Broadway adaptation domestic is Chicago, which made 170m. Wicked could beat that in its first week.

Edited 10 hours ago by Rageofthegods

[AniNate]

The reality is every movie is its own beast. General audiences aren't innately repelled by any whole genre, it's always about what the individual project has to offer.

[AniNate]

Speaking of beasts....

 

'Moana 2' Eyeing $100M+ Thanksgiving Opening: Box Office (deadline.com)

[WebSurfer]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

Speaking of beasts....

 

'Moana 2' Eyeing $100M+ Thanksgiving Opening: Box Office (deadline.com)

Wish films like Wild Robot and Tone could see this kind of success…

[Grand Cine]

100M OW for Universal movies :

 

1) : Jurassic World (2015) : 208,8M

2) : Jurassic World Dominion (2018) : 148M

3) : Furious 7 (2015) : 147,2M

4) : Super Mario Bros (2023) : 146,4M

5) : Jurassic World Dominion (2022) : 145,1M

6) : Minions (2015) : 115,7M

7) : Minions 2 (2022) : 107M

8 : Secret Life of Pets (2016) : 104,3M

 

Wicked has a good shot to be the 9th movie in this list

Edited 10 hours ago by Grand Cine