The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

I thought I'd throw a discussion out there given how much the Barbenheimmer term has been thrown out, and how we'd actually define a Barbenheimmer phenomenon.

 

If we're just talking the existence of two big films opening up the same weekend, it feels like Glicked already gets us there. But it feels like the term means a lot more, but still hard to define.

 

First, the two films feel like the complimentary mix of films that Barbenheimmer achieved. Two adult films, likely heading towards positive reviews, and going after very different demographics, but both having potential for crossover appeal.

 

Box office, we're not tracking towards Barbenheimmer levels yet, but we weren't a month out in 2023. But that's where the box office element of this gets interesting. If Wicked does $110-120M and Gladiator does $60-70M, that is an amazing post pandemic weekend and one that should be celebrated. But still feels like it's not a worthwhile comparison to Barbenheimmer, even if it's not that materially off. It feels like earning that comparison means crescendoing into that upper tier. Both films settling into a total that was identified a few weeks in advance is not going to have that same energy to it.

 

I also don't know if we're going to get the Barbenheimmer marketing, cosplay, and push for the doubleheaders. Can the respective casts lean into the friendly rivalry in a genuine way without it being forced.

 

I'm not sure the full point of the post, other than gwttig some of these thoughts out in full form and see what others are thinking. The comparisons are inevitable, but I think the term means something a bit different to everyone.

 

[lorddemaxus]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I thought I'd throw a discussion out there given how much the Barbenheimmer term has been thrown out, and how we'd actually define a Barbenheimmer phenomenon.

 

If we're just talking the existence of two big films opening up the same weekend, it feels like Glicked already gets us there. But it feels like the term means a lot more, but still hard to define.

 

First, the two films feel like the complimentary mix of films that Barbenheimmer achieved. Two adult films, likely heading towards positive reviews, and going after very different demographics, but both having potential for crossover appeal.

 

Box office, we're not tracking towards Barbenheimmer levels yet, but we weren't a month out in 2023. But that's where the box office element of this gets interesting. If Wicked does $110-120M and Gladiator does $60-70M, that is an amazing post pandemic weekend and one that should be celebrated. But still feels like it's not a worthwhile comparison to Barbenheimmer, even if it's not that materially off. It feels like earning that comparison means crescendoing into that upper tier. Both films settling into a total that was identified a few weeks in advance is not going to have that same energy to it.

 

I also don't know if we're going to get the Barbenheimmer marketing, cosplay, and push for the doubleheaders. Can the respective casts lean into the friendly rivalry in a genuine way without it being forced.

 

I'm not sure the full point of the post, other than gwttig some of these thoughts out in full form and see what others are thinking. The comparisons are inevitable, but I think the term means something a bit different to everyone.

 

What made Barbenheimer so unique (beyond the record breaking numbers themselves) is the synergy between both films. Gladiator 2 and Wicked don’t have that kind of synergy at all. No ones talking about doing double features for both films. No one can even come up with an agreeable term to call this thing (and anything people do come up with sounds like shit). This is just two films about to have pretty good openings on their opening weekend. It’s not remotely special and will not be in the box office/pop culture history books like Barbenheimer.

Edited yesterday at 12:34 AM by lorddemaxus

[joselowe]

22 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I thought I'd throw a discussion out there given how much the Barbenheimmer term has been thrown out, and how we'd actually define a Barbenheimmer phenomenon.

 

If we're just talking the existence of two big films opening up the same weekend, it feels like Glicked already gets us there. But it feels like the term means a lot more, but still hard to define.

 

First, the two films feel like the complimentary mix of films that Barbenheimmer achieved. Two adult films, likely heading towards positive reviews, and going after very different demographics, but both having potential for crossover appeal.

 

Box office, we're not tracking towards Barbenheimmer levels yet, but we weren't a month out in 2023. But that's where the box office element of this gets interesting. If Wicked does $110-120M and Gladiator does $60-70M, that is an amazing post pandemic weekend and one that should be celebrated. But still feels like it's not a worthwhile comparison to Barbenheimmer, even if it's not that materially off. It feels like earning that comparison means crescendoing into that upper tier. Both films settling into a total that was identified a few weeks in advance is not going to have that same energy to it.

 

I also don't know if we're going to get the Barbenheimmer marketing, cosplay, and push for the doubleheaders. Can the respective casts lean into the friendly rivalry in a genuine way without it being forced.

 

I'm not sure the full point of the post, other than gwttig some of these thoughts out in full form and see what others are thinking. The comparisons are inevitable, but I think the term means something a bit different to everyone.

 

Agree but Glicked has been getting a lot of attention

 

Glicked has been talked about all on the web, People, Deadline, Dailymail all have popular articles about Glicked. I think the reason we arent seeing Barbenheimer level press is because people forget those films dropped right during the SAG strike so they were doing press for their films and promoting Barbenheimer way before they were released. Neither side of Glicked has started a press tour yet. They are still a month out.

 

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, joselowe said:

Agree but Glicked has been getting a lot of attention

 

Glicked has been talked about all on the web, People, Deadline, Dailymail all have popular articles about Glicked. I think the reason we arent seeing Barbenheimer level press is because people forget those films dropped right during the SAG strike so they were doing press for their films and promoting Barbenheimer way before they were released. Neither side of Glicked has started a press tour yet. They are still a month out.

 

Glicked is not a thing. One or two articles mentioning it does not make it a thing. Even right now more people are searching from Barbenheimer than they are for Glicked: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 1-m&geo=US&q=Barbenheimer,Glicked&hl=en-US

[filmlover]

54 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I thought I'd throw a discussion out there given how much the Barbenheimmer term has been thrown out, and how we'd actually define a Barbenheimmer phenomenon.

 

If we're just talking the existence of two big films opening up the same weekend, it feels like Glicked already gets us there. But it feels like the term means a lot more, but still hard to define.

 

First, the two films feel like the complimentary mix of films that Barbenheimmer achieved. Two adult films, likely heading towards positive reviews, and going after very different demographics, but both having potential for crossover appeal.

 

Box office, we're not tracking towards Barbenheimmer levels yet, but we weren't a month out in 2023. But that's where the box office element of this gets interesting. If Wicked does $110-120M and Gladiator does $60-70M, that is an amazing post pandemic weekend and one that should be celebrated. But still feels like it's not a worthwhile comparison to Barbenheimmer, even if it's not that materially off. It feels like earning that comparison means crescendoing into that upper tier. Both films settling into a total that was identified a few weeks in advance is not going to have that same energy to it.

 

I also don't know if we're going to get the Barbenheimmer marketing, cosplay, and push for the doubleheaders. Can the respective casts lean into the friendly rivalry in a genuine way without it being forced.

 

I'm not sure the full point of the post, other than gwttig some of these thoughts out in full form and see what others are thinking. The comparisons are inevitable, but I think the term means something a bit different to everyone.

 

I think everyone's only bringing up Barbenheimer because of how recent it was. For me, it actually reminds me of other combos: it's been popular over the decades to position an animated Disney flick and a high-profile PG-13/R-rated title against each other on the same weekend going as far back as the 90s, especially in summer, but since this is pre-Thanksgiving, I'm reminded of another blockbuster duo with some major similarities: Happy Feet and Casino Royale in 2006. On one side is a family-targeted musical, on the other is a franchise pic whose main target audience is adult men, and they both did extremely well on the pre-Thanksgiving slot and lasted through the holidays. But because, like Barbenheimer, one is almost certain to open much bigger to a possible $100M+ debut (and it being the one with more automatic 4 quad appeal), that's where the comparison comes in. Just my two cents on the matter.

[AniNate]

I'll just say no one really expected Barbenheimer would happen on the scale it did until it actually happened. 

[JonathanMB]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

The sales for Conclave actually seem pretty good near me. Helps that they've been promoting it aggressively on TV. Thinking it does $5M+ for the weekend at least, not bad given how dire it's been for adult dramas lately (with a lot of potential for strong staying power too).

 

I was just coming in here to mention this. Just looking at my local Cinemark, which is usually lucky to have any tickets sold for Friday two days out for non-tentpole releases, already has 34 tickets sold for all of Friday - and the busiest showtime is a 1:45pm matinee with 15 tickets sold between five little pairs/groups. I'm guessing that means it's getting the older crowd to come out. I'll be curious to see how audiences react to the movie - it seemed like a crowd-pleaser at the festivals, but I'm not sure what its relationship to the Catholic church is like and if that could alienate some viewers? Regardless, any opening PTA above $2,000 would be a win for this kind of movie post-COVID, IMO. 

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Venom 3 (T-2) 

 

29 showtimes/461 tix sold (+81)

 

1.09x AQP Day One (T-2) [7.41m]
.84x Beetlejuice 2 (T-2) [8.23m]

1.38x Bad Boys 4 (T-2) [8.11m]
 

bad day. Tomorrow I want to see at least 100 tickets sold if $7m is to be over a 50% chance

Venom 3 (T-1) 

 

29 showtimes/562 tix sold (+101)

 

1.10x AQP Day One (T-1) [7.48m]
.83x Beetlejuice 2 (T-1) [8.13m]

1.11x Bad Boys 4 (T-1) [6.52m]

 

Right around where I expected. I think if it sells 195-210 tickets by T-0. Then it should be a bit above $7m. 

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Venom 3 Friday (T-3) 

 

31 showtimes/371 tix sold (+71)

 

.56x Beetlejuice 2 (T-3) [16.14m]

Missed Alien Romulus (T-3) [???]

.39x Inside Out 2 (T-3) [19.71m]
 

Nothing of note going on

Venom 3 Friday (T-2) 

 

31 showtimes/462 tix sold (+91)

 

.55x Beetlejuice 2 (T-2) [15.85m]

1.35x Alien Romulus (T-2) [15.63m]

.37x Inside Out 2 (T-2) [18.70m]

 

Again there was very little movement today

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Gladiator 2 (T-30) 

 

14 showtimes/151 tix sold (+41!)
 

Missed AQP Day One (T-30) [???]

3.28x Twisters (T-30) [24.6m]

1.53x Beetlejuice 2 (T-30) [14.99m]

 

Um, not really sure what happened today. Hopefully other trackers can see if Gladiator 2 is growing a lot in their locations or (more likely) this is something location specific to NYC/NJ. 

Gladiator 2 (T-29) 

 

14 showtimes/180 tix sold (+29!)

Missed AQP Day One (T-29) [???]

4.00x Twisters (T-29) [30.00m]

1.78x Beetlejuice 2 (T-29) [17.44m]

 

So yesterday really wasn’t a fluke. I’m interested to see just how long this can go on for.

[charlie Jatinder]

Thursday sales are okay but Friday are simply awful.

[keysersoze123]

I am also not so negative anymore. It did have a good day. I am thinking 60m+ today after it looked dire until yesterday. At best I could see

7.75m previews

20 TF

24 Sat

17 Sun

 

High 60s OW. But most likely it will be close to 60m than 70m. 

[Kon]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thursday sales are okay but Friday are simply awful.

You mean Venom 3, right?

 

It would be bad for Venom 3 if numbers for Friday are really poor.

Edited yesterday at 04:27 AM by Kon

[Cmasterclay]

Apparently the Venom franchise audience is entirely people who decide to see a movie like ten minutes beforehand.

[Ryan C]

On 10/17/2024 at 2:21 AM, Ryan C said:

 

Wicked

 

T-34 and T-35

 

Wednesday, November 20 - Early Access Screenings: 4,579 Seats Sold (41.5% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday, November 21 - Regular Thursday Previews: 4,911 Seats Sold (19.6% Increase From Last Time)

= 9,490 Seats Sold (29.2% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 2:05 AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: As I expected, more showtimes for the EA screenings were added to keep up with demand. It's why the percentage for Wednesday is substantially high (even more than I expected) within the last week since pre-sales started. On one hand, I am worried that all of this incredibly strong traffic for the EA screenings will take away business from the actual weekend, but this is still really impressive. 

 

Obviously, demand was high as soon as those tickets went on sale, so it has calmed down within the past week. I may have expected a slightly higher increase from last week in terms of the actual Thursday previews (at least 25%), but the real story will be how this continues to pace in the upcoming weeks and on the actual week leading up to the movie coming out. If this ends up being walk-up heavy, then we're gonna be in for quite an opening with this one.

 

Like how it took the first day of pre-sales to guarantee that Deadpool and Wolverine was opening over $100M, it took at least two weeks to confirm that Wicked will be opening above $100M. 

 

Wicked

 

T-27 and T-28

 

Wednesday, November 20 - Early Access Screenings: 5,100 Seats Sold (11.3% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday, November 21 - Regular Thursday Previews: 5,374 Seats Sold (9.4% Increase From Last Time)

= 10,474 Seats Sold (10.3% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 2:05 AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Nothing too crazy to report on this week. It's just been a while that I've seen a movie (based on pre-sales alone) hit more than 10,000 seats sold. 

 

The pace is pretty normal for a movie that burnt off most of it demand during its opening week, but I am looking forward to seeing its pace pick up within the next few weeks. It's just a matter of time before we see this start pacing at a point where this opening to not just $100M, but substantially higher than that is possible. 

Edited yesterday at 06:18 AM by Ryan C

[vale9001]

6 hours ago, Flip said:

This would be true if the budget wasn’t $300m+

 

 

We know why the movie costs so much (pandemic + the strike) 

 

Anyways i didn't mean It doesn't need to make Money i meant he doesn't need huge pre Sales right now to know how big can be. 

Oppenheimer pre Sales didn't have a 350m domestic movie in It or Elvis weak pre Sales didn't have a 150M domestic movie on It.  

 

Until like 20 days before opening Oppenheimer predictions were like 40-50M opening so...

Pro prediction was 50-70M until few days before. 

Edited yesterday at 06:34 AM by vale9001

[vale9001]

7 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Wicked

 

T-27 and T-28

 

Wednesday, November 20 - Early Access Screenings: 5,100 Seats Sold (11.3% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday, November 21 - Regular Thursday Previews: 5,374 Seats Sold (9.4% Increase From Last Time)

= 10,474 Seats Sold (10.3% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 2:05 AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Nothing too crazy to report on this week. It's just been a while that I've seen a movie (based on pre-sales alone) hit more than 10,000 seats sold. 

 

The pace is pretty normal for a movie that burnt off most of it demand during its opening week, but I am looking forward to seeing its pace pick up within the next few weeks. It's just a matter of time before we see this start pacing at a point where this opening to not just $100M, but substantially higher than that is possible. 

 

 

Do you mean is bigger than Deadpool?  

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

Do you mean is bigger than Deadpool?  

 

No. I just mean that this is one of the rare times where I tracked a movie and a number more than 10,000 came up in terms of seats sold. 

 

It happened with Deadpool and Wolverine as it got really close to its release date and I was tracking my two local theaters. I remember getting a number of seats sold that exceeded 10,000. 

 

Wicked is most likely not gonna open as big as Deadpool and Wolverine, but in terms of fan rush and potential for a cross-generational appeal amongst all age groups/demographics, the potential is there for this to go substantially higher than $100M.

 

That's just how I'm seeing it right now. 

[vale9001]

24 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

No. I just mean that this is one of the rare times where I tracked a movie and a number more than 10,000 came up in terms of seats sold. 

 

It happened with Deadpool and Wolverine as it got really close to its release date and I was tracking my two local theaters. I remember getting a number of seats sold that exceeded 10,000. 

 

Wicked is most likely not gonna open as big as Deadpool and Wolverine, but in terms of fan rush and potential for a cross-generational appeal amongst all age groups/demographics, the potential is there for this to go substantially higher than $100M.

 

That's just how I'm seeing it right now. 

 

Oh ok but i don't get your "in a while", sounds kinda generic ☺️

 

For example Deadpool came just 3 months ago. Once joker failed the only big release we got since there was beetlejuice. Did you track that? Is bigger than that? Or for example do you have a same time data for Barbie? 

 

Right now seems something  in the middle of beetlejuice and Barbie openings to you? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 06:57 AM by vale9001

[Ryan C]

6 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

Oh ok but i don't get your "in a while", sounds kinda generic ☺️

 

For example Deadpool came just 3 months ago. Once joker failed the only big release we got since there was beetlejuice. Did you track that? Is bigger than that? Or for example do you have a same time data for Barbie? 

 

Right now seems something  in the middle of beetlejuice and Barbie openings to you? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I did track Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and all I'll say is that Wicked is pacing far ahead of that film. The only major difference is that Beetlejuice doesn't have the kind of fanbase that Wicked does that would buy tickets as soon as they go on sale. 

 

Also, I only started tracking on this thread this past summer (actually with Deadpool and Wolverine), so I have no data for Barbie. Though I can tell you from memory that Barbie's sales were absolutely nuts. I knew it was going to be a $100M+ opener right away (even putting aside the Barbenheimer factor). I can't say for sure that Wicked sold more than Barbie at the same point, but I'm willing to bet that both weren't that far off in terms of demand. 

 

Like you said, I'd put an opening somewhere between Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Barbie for Wicked right now. Something is just telling me that this is gonna open that high.