The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[DisposedData]

Barbie is looking bigger and bigger with each update. This is going to be a second Mario isn't it. 

[LegionWrex]

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR

 

THURSDAY Previews 

T-0 *4:00PM Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
109	1491	17953	8.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

364

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(3.324x) of BOOGEYMAN

~$3.6M THUR Previews

 

(4.841x) of THE BLACKENING 

~$3.6M THUR Previews

 

COMP AVG: $3.6M

 

Excellent final day. This is a great sign for walkups throughout the weekend. I'll go with $3M-$3.5M and high $20Ms with a chance at $30M+ OW

In series tradition, it will open like $10M above initial projections. Never doubt the Insidious movies.

[Austin]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
221	1702	45215	3.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

101

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	675	2148	31.4%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

34

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 61 sold / 291 seats  (+6)

MTC2 = 48 sold / 114 seats  (+9)

 

COMPS

T-5

*Excludes any EA

 

(0.856x) of RoTB

~$7.5M TUES

 

(0.885x) of FAST X

~$6.6M TUES

 

COMP AVG: $7.1M TUES

*NOT ADJUSTED DOWN FOR TUESDAY DISCOUNT 

 

Not really ramping up like I anticipated. Walmart+ special is definitely doing better now @Porthos

This is still Tuesday is it not? Which would still be before the review bump on Wednesday?

[joselowe]

Are the Barbie numbers mainly previews? The preview here at my local theater in Miami is sold out but all the following showing have hardly sold any seats past the Wednesday night previews. Spider-Man Across The Spiderverse by comparison was sold out for its entire first weekend including previews.

[TheFlatLannister]

39 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Barbie is looking bigger and bigger with each update. This is going to be a second Mario isn't it. 

The $90M projection I gave weeks ago might be the floor now👀

[TheFlatLannister]

14 minutes ago, Austin said:

This is still Tuesday is it not? Which would still be before the review bump on Wednesday?

These numbers are from today's run at 6PM. I usually see a review bump 12-24 hours after 

[ThomasNicole]

23 minutes ago, Austin said:

This is still Tuesday is it not? Which would still be before the review bump on Wednesday?

Seems like it should have some bump already, so it just didn’t happen 

 

But the bump seems to be real in many other places so i don’t think is something to worry about

[Austin]

17 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

These numbers are from today's run at 6PM. I usually see a review bump 12-24 hours after 

Oh gotcha, I see the T-5 and T-4 now. I was just being dumb. I suppose I was just confused as to why there was a Tuesday in the post.

[emoviefan]

9 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Seems like it should have some bump already, so it just didn’t happen 

 

But the bump seems to be real in many other places so i don’t think is something to worry about

I really hope so.Still gotta figure the Tuesday opening plus EA is really throwing off the Comps. I bet a lot of the target audience is not even aware it is opening 2 days early then normal like it is. 

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, joselowe said:

Are the Barbie numbers mainly previews? The preview here at my local theater in Miami is sold out but all the following showing have hardly sold any seats past the Wednesday night previews. Spider-Man Across The Spiderverse by comparison was sold out for its entire first weekend including previews.

 

 

My local NYC Regal has no Wed screenings but

 

Barbie

 

Thur : 211 (6 shows)

Friday:  321 (8 shows)

Sat:  188 (8 shows)

Sun: 39 (8 shows)

 

Oppenheimer

 

Thur:  44 (4 shows including RPX)

Fri:  32 (5 shows)

Sat: 34 (5 shows)

Sun : 9 (5 shows))

[DAJK]

Holy shit, Insidious walk-ups are excellent. I’m looking at recent horror comps in my area, and the best I can find is genuinely Scream 6.

 

Now, I’m not saying this is coming for a 40M+ opening, but this is doing WELL.

[emoviefan]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Holy shit, Insidious walk-ups are excellent. I’m looking at recent horror comps in my area, and the best I can find is genuinely Scream 6.

 

Now, I’m not saying this is coming for a 40M+ opening, but this is doing WELL.

Well i guess that answers the question whether Indy can hang on to the number one spot this weekend.  Hopefully Mission can explode with the walkups next week. 

[joselowe]

28 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 

My local NYC Regal has no Wed screenings but

 

Barbie

 

Thur : 211 (6 shows)

Friday:  321 (8 shows)

Sat:  188 (8 shows)

Sun: 39 (8 shows)

 

Oppenheimer

 

Thur:  44 (4 shows including RPX)

Fri:  32 (5 shows)

Sat: 34 (5 shows)

Sun : 9 (5 shows))

That's good. Not sure why mines isn't doing well outside of the preview, https://www.amctheatres.com/movie-theatres/miami-ft-lauderdale/amc-aventura-24/showtimes/all/2023-07-22/amc-aventura-24/all

 

They have discounts for earlier showings and it's a huge family area. I wonder if this is tracking more for women than families? Or maybe Barbie isnt that popular in the Latin community.

[TalismanRing]

16 minutes ago, joselowe said:

That's good. Not sure why mines isn't doing well outside of the preview, https://www.amctheatres.com/movie-theatres/miami-ft-lauderdale/amc-aventura-24/showtimes/all/2023-07-22/amc-aventura-24/all

 

They have discounts for earlier showings and it's a huge family area. I wonder if this is tracking more for women than families? Or maybe Barbie isnt that popular in the Latin community.

 

The biggest selling shows by far are in the 7-9pm range on Thur/Friday and after 4pm on Sat .  So far it's skewing more adult here than family but then families tend to buy tickets later

[charlie Jatinder]

Insidious 5 MiniTC2

Previews -  10279/24415 (115 showings) $117,985

Absolutely ridiculous final day. They started the day with less than 100 shows and ended up adding nearly 20 shows during the day. MiniTC2 had better sales than other regions (suggesting $3.5M ish previews), so I was expecting that others will end up converging with me in the end but MiniTC2 went even higher. Beaten Scream 6 & Halloween Ends here. It is over-indexing but not sure how much.

Normally would be $5.5-6M previews with these numbers, some horror titles over-indexes, if it does to that degree, should still be around $4.75-5M!!!!

Mostly $4M+ previews, probably around $4.5M.

[LegionWrex]

4 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

Insidious 5 MiniTC2

Previews -  10279/24415 (115 showings) $117,985

Absolutely ridiculous final day. They started the day with less than 100 shows and ended up adding nearly 20 shows during the day. MiniTC2 had better sales than other regions (suggesting $3.5M ish previews), so I was expecting that others will end up converging with me in the end but MiniTC2 went even higher. Beaten Scream 6 & Halloween Ends here. It is over-indexing but not sure how much.

Normally would be $5.5-6M previews with these numbers, some horror titles over-indexes, if it does to that degree, should still be around $4.75-5M!!!!

Mostly $4M+ previews, probably around $4.5M.

Insane number. If it does play like Scream 6 we could be looking at $35-40M opening. Great number.

[WorkingonaName]

Horror killing it this year, hoping for a massive FNAF preview number. 

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	53	7164	8248	1084	13.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

67

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	44.70		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		10966	9.89%		8.05m
BP2	15.87		126	6830		2/294	30194/37024	18.45%		16800	6.45%		4.44m
FX	114.35		42	948		0/178	26762/27710	3.42%		4122	26.30%		8.58m
Indy 5	92.73		53	1169		0/128	19072/20241	5.78%		4767	22.74%		6.68m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       223/2968  [7.51% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 1.20% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 485/776 [+36 tickets] [44.74% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:     419/4100 [+24 tickets] [38.65% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           180/3372 [+7 tickets] [16.61% of all tickets sold]

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	55	7524	8656	1132	13.08%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	408
Total Seats Sold Today	48

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	43.62		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	10.32%		7.85m
BP2	16.03		230	7060		2/294	29934/37024	19.07%		16800	6.74%		4.49m
FX	108.12		99	1047		0/178	26663/27710	3.78%		4122	27.46%		8.11m
Indy 5	89.98		89	1258		0/128	18983/20241	6.22%		4767	23.75%		6.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:     2 31/2968  [7.78% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 1.15% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 496/776 [+11 tickets] [43.82% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    444/4508 [+25 tickets] [39.22% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           192/3372 [+12 tickets] [16.96% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	96	10799	12612	1813	14.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

160

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	47.76		189	3796		0/259	32137/35933	10.56%		11474	15.80%		9.20m
JWD	74.76		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		10966	16.53%		13.46m
BA	212.54		65	853		0/146	21214/22067	3.87%		4494	40.34%		15.94m
Ava 2	67.27		89	2695		0/142	18643/21338	12.63%		8986	20.18%		11.44m
Scream 6	292.42		91	620		0/68	7268/7888	7.86%		3134	57.85%		16.67m
Wick 4	166.79		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	33.28%		14.84m
FX	191.24		42	948		0/178	26762/27710	3.42%		4122	43.98%		14.34m
TLM	125.90		96	1440		0/154	21277/22717	6.34%		6561	27.63%		12.97m
AtSV	95.82		71	1892		0/123	18027/19919	9.50%		9744	18.61%		16.63m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

EA PRE-SALE NOTE: Wed Early Access tickets went on sale one day before regular preview tickets went on sale and accounted for 196 tickets sold for Barbie.

 

Regal:       372/4252  [8.75% sold]
Matinee:    102/1757  [5.81% | 5.63% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:       353/423 [83.45% sold] [+-2 tickets sold]
Thr:    1460/12189 [11.98% sold] [+162 tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yes this is the correct number of seats sold today.  One of the reasons this is so late tonight is I was double checking (and in a couple of cases triple checking) my numbers to make sure there were no obvious errors.

 

(there weren't — at least none I could spot immediately, just strong sales up and down the region)

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	97	10623	12612	1989	15.77%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	n/a
Total Seats Sold Today	176

*The one added showing was from the local drive-in theater which has non-reserved seating

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	49.05		259	4055		0/259	31878/35933	11.28%		11474	17.33%		9.45m
JWD	76.65		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	18.14%		13.80m
BA	218.09		59	912		0/146	21155/22067	4.13%		4494	44.26%		16.36m
Ava 2	71.06		104	2799		0/142	18539/21338	13.12%		8986	22.13%		12.08m
Scream 6	303.20		36	656		0/70	7662/8318	7.89%		3134	63.47%		17.28m
Wick 4	172.81		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	36.51%		15.38m
FX	189.97		99	1047		0/178	26663/27710	3.78%		4122	48.25%		14.25m
TLM	130.26		87	1527		0/154	21187/22714	6.72%		6561	30.32%		13.42m
AtSV	100.15		94	1986		0/129	18803/20789	9.55%		9744	20.41%		17.38m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

EA PRE-SALE NOTE: Wed Early Access tickets went on sale one day before regular preview tickets went on sale and accounted for 196 tickets sold for Barbie.

 

Regal:       407/4252  [9.57% sold]
Matinee:    118/1757  [6.72% | 5.93% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:        360/423 [85.11% sold] [+7 tickets sold]
Thr:    1629/12189 [13.36% sold] [+169 tickets sold]

 

=========

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	159	22812	24565	1753	7.14%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	2
Total Seats Removed Today	456
Total Seats Sold Today	137

 

T-6 Comps:

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	122.85		125	1427		0/145	21026/22453	6.36%		3737	46.91%		7.62m
JWD	42.04		285	4170		0/223	23587/27757	15.02%		10966	15.99%		7.57m
Ava 2	39.93		236	4390		0/184	21739/26129	16.80%		8986	19.51%		6.79m
Wick 4	92.36		154	1898		0/113	13673/15571	12.19%		5448	32.18%		8.22m
FX	112.30		81	1561		0/179	26583/28144	5.55%		4122	42.53%		8.42m
Indy 5	93.49		73	1875		0/134	18832/20707	9.05%		4767	36.77%		6.73m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:     303/7753  [3.91% sold]
Matinee:    60/1805  [3.32% | 3.42% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    351/5740  [6.11% | 20.02% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]    
---------    
Sun:          90/456 [19.74% sold] [+6 tickets]
Mon:    624/2289 [27.26% sold] [+33 tickets]
Tue:    1039/21757 [4.78% sold] [+98 tickets]

 

===

 

One of the other reasons this is super late tonight is I was double checking these numbers to make sure there were no obvious errors in the other direction.

 

Of course, yesterday (Tuesday) saw an abnormally high spike locally so this all in all isn't that bad of a jump when looked at from Sun/Mon -> Wed.  But still, I wanted to make sure these were also correct, and they look to be.

 

(FWIW, Oppenheimer saw a big spike at the 70mm showings and precious little else elsewhere in the market so it was just an odd day all the way around, perhaps in no small part due to the Cat 3 storm that is Barbie that looks to be forming)

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	161	23004	25015	2011	8.04%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	450
Total Seats Sold Today	258

 

T-5 Comps:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	130.08		119	1546		0/145	20907/22453	6.89%		3737	53.81%		8.06m
JWD	43.54		449	4619		0/224	23313/27932	16.54%		10966	18.34%		7.84m
Ava 2	42.92		296	4686		0/198	22541/27227	17.21%		8986	22.38%		7.30m
Wick 4	97.43		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	36.91%		8.67m
FX	123.00		74	1635		0/179	26509/28144	5.81%		4122	48.79%		9.22m
Indy 5	98.72		162	2037		0/134	18676/20713	9.83%		4767	42.19%		7.11m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:         356/8206  [4.34% sold]
Matinee:        71/1805  [3.93% | 3.53% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    413/6193  [6.67% | 20.54% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]    
---------    
Sun:           121/456 [26.54% sold] [+31 tickets]
Mon:       668/2289 [29.18% sold] [+44 tickets]
Tue:       1219/22207 [5.49% sold] [+180 tickets]

 

===

 

Better.

 

Much much better.

 

I have no idea what happened yesterday.  Maybe the review bounce took an extra day to filter out?  Sun/Mon/Tue release vs Thr release throwing off the pattern? Just one of those things of Random Variation Is Random? I don't even fucking know.  Do know this was a much better day.

 

Sunday shows are starting to pick up as well.  The two main wrinkles here are:

 

1] Comparing a T-5 Sat with a T-5 Thr.

and

2] The Sunday tickets are starting their ramp-up, meaning the early EA bounce is starting to be felt.

 

Still, even with those cautionary notes, I'd say this is a good sign for the final days of pre-sales.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Porthos