The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[eman92]

9 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

The better than expected reviews for Saw X might improve its domestic performance, I assume.

It could help improve its legs, but I only really see it impacting its OW performance in a meaningful way if it somehow goes viral and builds up hype somehow

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-16

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 105

Seats sold - 5983

Total seats - 17595

% sold - 34%

New sales - 152 (+2.6%)

5-day average of new sales - 86.2 tickets/day

 

Should capture the rest of the Tweet bump. For reference these are the two biggest days of sales in my sample since I started tracking at T-37. Apart from the random Deadline/Variety article, there have only been three big promo pushes since this went on sale (two posts from Taylor and the VMA's). Remains to be seen how much more it will get, but I suspect the growth its seeing vs. Marvel movies is more a function of lack of awareness than demand. I think it still has good growth potential in the final week as promo and word-of-mouth should pick up. 

 

Also realized I have a T-2 hour Barbie comp at... one theater lol. It's worthless but for fun

 

1.15x Barbie T-2 hours - $25.6m / $37.2m ATP adjusted (+45%)

 

 

 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-15

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 106 (+1)

Seats sold - 6069

Total seats - 17681 

% sold - 34.3%

New sales - 86 (+1.4%)

6-day average of new sales - 86.2 tickets/day

 

Social media bump could be lingering. Could also be the start of the upward trend. 

 

Comp at my local theater

 

Barbie T-2 Hours (1.17x) - $26.12m / $37.9m ATP adjusted

Edited September 28, 2023 by jeffthehat

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Saw X barely outdoing Jigsaw and Spiral despite all of the studio's efforts to bring back the good old days would be pretty embarrassing.

[Blaze Heatnix]

7 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Saw X barely outdoing Jigsaw and Spiral despite all of the studio's efforts to bring back the good old days would be pretty embarrassing.

 

Nah, Saw X has a reasonable budget ( 13 million, according to Variety ). Legs will matter on this one and a possible fresh review will also help in the long haul.

[eman92]

20 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Saw X barely outdoing Jigsaw and Spiral despite all of the studio's efforts to bring back the good old days would be pretty embarrassing.

If it makes over 20M then I think Lionsgate would be happy with that. Anything over 25M+ OW would be a huge win for them. I do agree though, if this film only opens to 15-19M OW that would be a huge blow. I don't think Lionsgate wants to spend so much money to get 35-40M domestically as a return for Saw. They used to barely put any advertising into the earlier ones and they'd do huge numbers. Still with the budget as low as it is, this will be an easy win no matter what for lionsgate.

 

If this doesn't do great numbers, just goes to show you that Jigsaw and Spiral really did a hit on the Saw franchise.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Saw X barely outdoing Jigsaw and Spiral despite all of the studio's efforts to bring back the good old days would be pretty embarrassing.

This could however be the first Saw movie in a really long time to not have absolutely terrible legs

[PrinceRico]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Saw X barely outdoing Jigsaw and Spiral despite all of the studio's efforts to bring back the good old days would be pretty embarrassing.

At this point people know what they’re going to get with this franchise so it’s either you’re on board or you just lost Interest. This is the 10th installment, so franchise fatigue probably has sat in. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by PrinceRico

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Saw X barely outdoing Jigsaw and Spiral despite all of the studio's efforts to bring back the good old days would be pretty embarrassing.

 a chapter number 10 doing less than the one before doesn't sound that strange o embarassing to me, especially wen of course we're in a very different situation from 2017. 

 

anyways I don't know about the content of the movie but calling it X is not a great idea, all the new generation could think they can't watch it if they didn't watch the ones before. They should have made like the first new Scream movie, or the first new Halloween. So calling it just Saw. 

[Firepower]

What on Earth is going on here, we don't even have preview numbers yet and it's doom and gloom here somehow. Saw will do 25+ mln OW, will have better internal multi and better legs, it's gonna be alright, maybe better than that.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Firepower

[Shawn Robbins]

FNaF long range incoming. 33+

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

FNaF long range incoming. 33+

 

@Shawn right now to a... passionate segment of this forum user base:

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Porthos

[filmlover]

 

This is a pretty good tracking start, especially given the runtime and this being exactly the type of movie that tends to be more about legs (Oscar bumps, etc.) than a blockbuster opening.

[Bob Train]

Why would it open at only $24m when Leo's last 5 movies all opened $30m-$40m?

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

Why would it open at only $24m when Leo's last 5 movies all opened $30m-$40m?

Nearly 3.5 hour runtime + 20 minutes of previews = only 3 shows a day in each auditorium unless theaters open early/stay late enough to squeeze in a fourth one. $24M first projection for such a long adult-targeted drama (and one from a streaming service, Paramount doesn't seem to have much involvement in the movie beyond distribution) is a great start with plenty of room to grow over the next three weeks.

[Maggie]

Killers should be leggy

[Bob Train]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Nearly 3.5 hour runtime + 20 minutes of previews = only 3 shows a day in each auditorium unless theaters open early/stay late enough to squeeze in a fourth one. $24M first projection for such a long adult-targeted drama (and one from a streaming service, Paramount doesn't seem to have much involvement in the movie beyond distribution) is a great start with plenty of room to grow over the next three weeks.

It's the same runtime as Return of the King, which pulled a $74m OW in 2003 dollars. And it's not like this will be selling out shows apart from a few IMAX screens on the coasts, as it won't open high enough for that. IMO there is not really a reason to project a significantly lower opening than Leo's previous movies given he is a very consistent box office draw.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Killers should be leggy

Exactly. Keep in mind it's also still going to be fighting for auditorium space with Taylor Swift on the weekends and will still be grabbing a lot of screens.

[M37]

23 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Why would it open at only $24m when Leo's last 5 movies all opened $30m-$40m?

The pandemic forever reducing the size of the theatrical drama market?

[vale9001]

flowers will make not less than 35M OW. 45M as the maximus. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by vale9001

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

The pandemic forever reducing the size of the theatrical drama market?

Oppenheimer battle with Barbie PR was the best thing to happen to that movie. Killers could start some drama with Taylor Swift lol