The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Jsmitty]

TSTET update for the 3 theatres in my area.

 

14 planned showtimes for Friday. 1692 total seats including 1 Imax showtime.

 

1178 sold for a 69.6% rate right now. May be another couple shows posted this evening as Tuesday evening is usually update time.

[HummingLemon496]

@TheFlatLannister

 

Alright, it's 8pm now

Edited October 11, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[vafrow]

Some quick updates on T Swift amidst the Marvels chaos.

 

Cineplex is in the process of updating their weekend sets. There's a bit of an expansion of screens, but not universal for all theatres. My local 8 screen theatre is keeping it at one screen for example. I'll try and give a better rundown either tonight or tomorrow morning once the updates are done.

 

There's still no matinee shows, and, from what I've seen posted online, no refunds have been given. It's looking like those matinee shows that were originally sold are likely to still go ahead, but no additional sales for them are being allowed. Average tickets per showtime was about 50 for these shows, with some being much lower. It's going to be weird that the first showings in North America will be predominantly empty matinee showings.

 

It's also interesting to see what theatres are using to fill screens next week Monday to Wednesday. I'm seeing Barbie being brought back in some places for weekdays. Films like Expendables and Dumb Money are squeezing a bit more life in their runs because of it. Exorcist is getting weekday expansion as well in some places.

[TwoMisfits]

23 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I always said The Marvels was opening low and going under 400M WW.

 

I also always said Tay Tay was going under 100M OW because it would have no walkups and pre-sales would be limited after the first few days.

 

Glad to be about to be proven right on both.

 

I wouldn't be too confident on Tay Tay - even if Friday is only $35M, Sat is $40M, and Sun is $25M...that's still $100M...

 

 

[Jsmitty]

9 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Some quick updates on T Swift amidst the Marvels chaos.

 

Cineplex is in the process of updating their weekend sets. There's a bit of an expansion of screens, but not universal for all theatres. My local 8 screen theatre is keeping it at one screen for example. I'll try and give a better rundown either tonight or tomorrow morning once the updates are done.

 

There's still no matinee shows, and, from what I've seen posted online, no refunds have been given. It's looking like those matinee shows that were originally sold are likely to still go ahead, but no additional sales for them are being allowed. Average tickets per showtime was about 50 for these shows, with some being much lower. It's going to be weird that the first showings in North America will be predominantly empty matinee showings.

 

It's also interesting to see what theatres are using to fill screens next week Monday to Wednesday. I'm seeing Barbie being brought back in some places for weekdays. Films like Expendables and Dumb Money are squeezing a bit more life in their runs because of it. Exorcist is getting weekday expansion as well in some places.

@vafrow should mention I am Canadian as well maybe we can help each other out from time to time.

[TheFlatLannister]

.Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-30 *First 12ish hours 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
251	1619	50028	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(0.432x) of GOTG3~$7.55M THUR Previews

(1.016x) of Flash~$9.89M THUR Previews

(1.227x) of Indy 5~$8.84M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $8.76M

 

Don't want to be a doomposter, but ummm this is a bad start for an MCU title. Defintely does not feel like a $100M opener so far. 

On 10/7/2023 at 4:10 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

For my tracking, anything over 2.5k seats sold in the first 12ish hours is a really great start. Anything under 2k seats would be bad. Just something to watch for on Tuesday 

[vafrow]

4 minutes ago, Jsmitty said:

@vafrow should mention I am Canadian as well maybe we can help each other out from time to time.

 

Good to have another one of us up here. The app changes makes some it a little tricky, at least for me, so I'm sticking to just high level updates, but, good to have someone else up here with @Tinalera and @DAJK. If there's anything i can help with, just holler.

[keysersoze123]

@TheFlatLannister how much is just Disney Springs. I see sales there very strong as it is for any Disney movie(or most big budget hits).

[HummingLemon496]

6 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

.Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-30 *First 12ish hours 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
251	1619	50028	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(0.432x) of GOTG3~$7.55M THUR Previews

(1.016x) of Flash~$9.89M THUR Previews

(1.227x) of Indy 5~$8.84M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $8.76M

 

Don't want to be a doomposter, but ummm this is a bad start for an MCU title. Defintely does not feel like a $100M opener so far. 

Forget about $100M. With this type of tracking $60M would be lucky.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I always like Disney fan driven blockbuster to comp Disney if there's nothing else...maybe Indy 5 for another movie that fanbase just didn't seem to ever get going?  Not sure how high that started, but I know it wasn't high.

 

Little Mermaid for the same reason - that was a holiday weekend and may have started better?

 

I was sorta kinda thinking Indy 5, but pre-sale windows (plus it had a terribad pre-sale curve thanks to all of the early Cannes reviews).  Maybe TLM, sure.  Though that had that spike in the middle thanks to the aggressive promo strat from Disney before relatively ending softly.   Something I'll keep in mind though.

 

(frightfully busy right now so any other stuff much much much later)

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

@TheFlatLannister how much is just Disney Springs. I see sales there very strong as it is for any Disney movie(or most big budget hits).

There's one "sellout" at Disney springs listed on Fandango but im skeptical.

 

1063 seats sold between 17 showings...So yeah Disney springs is doing some heavy lifting per usual 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

(0.432x) of GOTG3~$7.55M THUR Previews

This wouldn't actually be bad but seems like your area will overindex.

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

This wouldn't actually be bad but seems like your area will overindex.

43% of GotG3 wouldn’t be bad?!? They are both direct MCU sequels, not like this is a new sub-franchise. 

[keysersoze123]

As I posted above one theater which is inside Disney world is skewing sales there. Otherwise it would be even lower. most shocking number so far is Drafthouse which has always been strong for MCU. They are driven by big cities and college towns like Austin. I am surprised by the huge under performance over there. 

 

@Porthos I would add Wakanda as well. After all it released in the same spot year ago and has the same elements in play like Veterans day. Its falling on saturday but I expect Friday to be off for those who normally get this day off. 

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Porthos I would add Wakanda as well. After all it released in the same spot year ago and has the same elements in play like Veterans day. Its falling on saturday but I expect Friday to be off for those who normally get this day off. 

 

Wasn't even considering it and probably won't at first because the relative difference of fan rushes will put too much of a thumb on the scale.    

 

Putting it differently:  Comparing a near 30m preview film with a sub 10m is very much not good.  IMO, at least. 

 

Perhaps something to bring in later in the run though.

[HummingLemon496]

53 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

This wouldn't actually be bad but seems like your area will overindex.

How is $7.55M in previews not bad?

[Madhuvan]

I always said Taylor sales will be heavily frontloaded cause that's how we buy her album for first week. I don't think it's disappointment in any manner.

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-30, ~13 hours after start of sales, count taken 10-10:30 PM CST):

Day: T-30	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	97	459	459	16057	2.86

 

Comps:

2.32x Five Nights at Freddy's Day 1 sales (that was taken at 6 PM, not the best comparison)

0.079x Taylor Swift Eras Tour Day 1 sales (LOL)

 

Was expecting way better from the first MCU movie I am tracking, personally. Not super far off @TheFlatLannister's occupancy rate number (3.2%), and for these bigger releases I am usually not super far off him and katniss, which indicates our markets are behaving somewhat similarly. I will add comps as they make sense (Oppenheimer at T-28; FNAF at T-21; Indiana Jones at T-14; maybe Barbie at around T-21, though that will be especially skewed because of how backloaded it was).

 

Again, not the best comps, but I am just excited to be tracking my first MCU title! Even on these days where it seems I have to take a deep breath every time I see an *interesting* take, I am still grateful to be part of this community. It's something I look forward to checking on, and sometimes contributing to, every day. So thank you for letting me be a part of it! (ok, cheesiness is done, let's go back to our hot takes)

[Relevation]

4 hours ago, datpepper said:

Wish on sale Oct 13

Took a look back on what Encanto and Strange World pulled for their TUE previews to 5-day opening multipliers, aaaaaand

 

Encanto - $1.5M previews to $40.56M 5-day (27.04x IM)

Strange World - $800K previews to $18.86M 5-day (23.58x IM)

 

So with those comps in mind, if Wish sales are exceeding Elemental in comps at all, then it’s in very good shape for a potential $60M+ debut ($2.4M+ with 25x IM goes to $60M)

[DAJK]

4 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Good to have another one of us up here. The app changes makes some it a little tricky, at least for me, so I'm sticking to just high level updates, but, good to have someone else up here with @Tinalera and @DAJK. If there's anything i can help with, just holler.

Yea the new app sucks and makes tracking 1000x harder. Up until Nov 2022 the website made it super easy to track multiple theaters at once, but then it changed. Awful change, and I know a lot of people at the company who hate it too lol.