The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[babz06]

28 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Reactions are out. The reviews come Tomorrow I think.

Reviews come out on November 9

[Mojoguy]

Just now, babz06 said:

Reviews come out on November 9

On the same day as the Marvels Thurs previews. I'm sure that was intentional by LG.

[Sckathian]

They will be looking for the film to run strongly into December and dominate the holiday season. Which it should do easily.

[babz06]

19 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

On the same day as the Marvels Thurs previews. I'm sure that was intentional by LG.

In addition THG world red carpet premiere in London is also November 9. 

Edited November 7, 2023 by babz06

[PrinceRico]

Any update on The Color Purple 

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/3/2023 at 12:40 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

The Color Purple (T-53):

Day: T-53	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	42	55	55	4403	1.25

 

Type of tix:		Total:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0
MTC1:		38	69.09
Marcus:		7	12.73
Alamo:		0	0
Other chains		10	18.18

 

This astounds me, who the hell is buying tickets for this so early.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Color Purple (T-49):

Day: T-49	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	53	65	120	5345	2.25

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		54	16	45
Marcus:		33	26	27.5
Alamo:		2	2	1.67
Other chains:		31	21	25.83

 

I have nothing this far out, except for Beyonce's Renaissance, which would be a silly comp. Still, over 100 seats sold 7 weeks (!) before release is pretty awesome, so that Fandango deal must be really working out nicely. I am very interested to see if anyone else is seeing the same in their markets. Anyways, I'll update this again in a week.

 

Some Day 4 comps just for reference:

0.46x Killers of the Flower Moon: $1.2 Million

0.2x Oppenheimer: $2.13 Million 

 

( @PrinceRico all I can help with)

[Boxofficerules]

The review embargo for Thanksgiving lifts on the 14th.

[Porthos]

On 11/5/2023 at 11:53 PM, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	27585	29389	1804	6.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

133

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	59.34		191	3040		0/101	12928/15968	19.04%		6409	28.15%		6.37m
GOTG3	31.54		506	5719		0/227	26231/31950	17.90%		10750	16.78%		5.52m
TLM	59.05		358	3055		0/177	22304/25359	12.05%		6561	27.50%		6.08m
AtSV	45.75		370	3943		0/142	18531/22474	17.54%		9744	18.51%		7.94m
Flash	82.15		173	2196		0/178	22946/25142	8.73%		5327	33.87%		7.97m
Indy 5	79.58		230	2267		0/134	18442/20709	10.95%		4767	37.84%		5.73m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     305/9184  [3.32% sold]
Matinee:    73/2719  [2.68% | 4.05% of all tickets sold]
3D:            138/4957  [2.78% | 7.65% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

That Indy 5 comp continuing to drop isn't the greatest of omens, it must be said.  Eternals holding flat, more or less, is interesting, it should be noted.  But that's about the best thing that can be said for The Marvels, probably.

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	30285	32318	2033	6.29%

 

Total Showings Added Today	37
Total Seats Added Today	2929
Total Seats Sold Today	229

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	59.15		397	3437		0/118	13711/17148	20.04%		6409	31.72%		6.35m
GOTG3	32.24		587	6306		0/273	29558/35864	17.58%		10750	18.91%		5.64m
TLM	57.48		482	3537		0/201	24221/27758	12.74%		6561	30.99%		5.92m
AtSV	45.59		516	4459		0/142	18015/22474	19.84%		9744	20.86%		7.91m
Flash	84.25		217	2413		0/193	23824/26237	9.20%		5327	38.16%		8.17m
Indy 5	80.51		258	2525		0/158	21009/23534	10.73%		4767	42.65%		5.80m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     352/9710  [3.63% sold]
Matinee:    84/2946  [2.85% | 4.13% of all tickets sold]
3D:            158/5133  [3.08% | 7.77% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Insert LARRY_DAVID_EHH_IT_COULD_BE_WORSE.GIF HERE

 

I mean, it could be worse.  It's still hanging tough with that Eternals comp, even with Halloween now in the rear view mirror for Eternals (this was Nov 1 for Eternals).  Maybe still a bit of a Halloween hangover, I suppose.  But, I dunno... Maybe, maybe the floor has been reached.  Still perhaps looking at 5.5 - 6.5 as something of a (current) range but I don't think the bottom is still falling out, which isn't nothing.  Maybe not all that much, but not nothing.

[TwoMisfits]

Okay, Disney's desperation is getting serious.

 

Fandango has a $15 off IMAX only ticket code for The Marvels.  This NEVER happens.  The code is MARVELMONDAYS and it works once per account.  IMAX only.  

[M37]

19 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ok. That would be really soft finish. It will see huge surge on the day of reactions/reviews. Eternals already had that catalyst. But you can never say for sure. 

 

That said I was wondering more on Friday. But if thursday finishes at 120K, friday presales finish would be even worse and it could finish with just low 200kish which would probably make 13m friday big struggle. Then even 45m OW will not happen. Let us see how things go. 

It would be a soft finish because the pace is weak! Growth of only 14% over T-7 to T-4 weekend is poor, especially for a film of this size with far fewer prebuys and tons of capacity remaining. For comparison, Thor was 11.2% (July 4th depression), DrS:MoM was 12.2%, BPWF was 15.5%, Batman (Thur only) was 16.8% and GOTG3 was 19.9%. [I don't have numbers for Shang-Chi nor Eternals]

 

For Friday, do you have BPWF numbers from T-4/T-3 and final? Because that's the most analogous pace trajectory to Marvels, and also had the Vet Day Friday holiday bump. For an optimistic scenario, could look at Batman, if reviews are good - or at least good enough - to get some of wait for reviews crowd off the fence

 

Fwiw, following BPWF growth from here would be (approx)

T-3 = ~70K

T-2 = ~77K

T-1 = ~86K

T-F = 120-125K

[M37]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Okay, Disney's desperation is getting serious.

 

Fandango has a $15 off IMAX only ticket code for The Marvels.  This NEVER happens.  The code is MARVELMONDAYS and it works once per account.  IMAX only.  

Which is ironic, because the PLF shows aren't having any problem selling (besides 3D), its getting the GA to even pay standard admission that is running into a wall ... so how much will this help?

 

Disney's flailing attempts at boosting Marvels is reminding me of the scene in Miracle when the Soviets don't pull their goalie because they so are accustomed to leading, they don't know how to play from behind.

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by M37

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, M37 said:

Which is ironic, because the PLF shows aren't having any problem selling (besides 3D), its getting the GA to even pay standard admission that is running into a wall ... so how much will this help?

 

Disney's flailing attempts at boosting Marvels is reminding me of the scene in Miracle when the Soviet's don't pull their goalie because they so are accustomed to leading, they don't know how to play from behind.

 

 

It will probably sky cheap Tuesday, b/c from my deals' board, folks are buying those b/c they can see the movie free (while the movie will get the $15 "credit" for revenue)...and free is their right price range (I admit, I'd have bought a free ticket, if I had an IMAX around me)...

[vafrow]

On 11/6/2023 at 6:33 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-4, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 1000

New sales: 63

Growth: 6.7%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 56

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.790x of FNAF for $8.1M

 

Single theatre comp:

0.234x of ATSV for $4.1M

0.894x of The Flash for $8.7M

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 4.2 (3.2)

Early evening: 76.7 (77.4)

Late Evening: 19.1 (19.4)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 3.5

Early Evening: 33.3

Late Evening: 9.1

Avg: 17.9

 

Growth staying firmly below double digits at this point is the biggest concern. This is just limping to the finish line.

 

The Marvels, T-3, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 1089

New sales: 89

Growth: 8.9%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 56

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.705x of FNAF for $7.3M

 

Single theatre comp:

0.232x of ATSV for $4.0M

0.934x of The Flash for $8.7M

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 4.9 (4.2)

Early evening:  75.5 (76.7)

Late Evening: 19.5 (19.1)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 4.4

Early Evening: 35.7

Late Evening: 10.2

Avg: 19.4

 

Growth is increasing, but not at a rate that's going to make much of a difference.

[el sid]

The Marvels, counted yesterday for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 377 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 225 (18 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 20 (15 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 20 (11 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 34 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 472 (16 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 400 (23 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.548.

Up modest 39% since last Tuesday (in 6 days).
Comps (all four films counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): TSS (8M true Friday) had 940 sold tickets = 13.2M.
Blue Beetle (6.7M) had 507 sold tickets = 20.4M.
Thor 4 (40.5M) had 5.214 sold tickets = 11.95M.
And Morbius (11.6M) had 1.163 sold tickets = 15.4M.
GotG 3 (30.7M) finally = on Thursday for Friday had 4.484 sold tickets.

Average (without GotG III): 15.2M true Friday for The Marvels.

Let's see if this film recovers a little bit till Friday but I'm not very optimistic with all the other reports here which also aren't encouraging.

 

[jeffthehat]

On 11/6/2023 at 8:36 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

The Marvels T-3

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 31

Seats sold - 616

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 10.2%

New sales - 32 (+5.5%)

 

Growth

 

T-14 to T-9: 48 tickets sold (+10.4%)

T-9 to T-7: 6 tickets sold (+1.1%)

T-7 to T-3: 101 tickets sold (+19.6%)

 

 

 

The Marvels T-2

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Shwo count - 31

Seats sold - 701

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 11.6%

New sales - 85 (+13.7%)

 

Friday T-3 (2 days of sales)

 

Show count - 64 (-1)

Seats sold - 585 

New sales - 134 (+30%)

 

.82x Thu

---

 

Decent day, but it's late. Might avoid a morbillion, but struggling to see how it gets $55m+. 

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by jeffthehat

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Which is ironic, because the PLF shows aren't having any problem selling (besides 3D), its getting the GA to even pay standard admission that is running into a wall ... so how much will this help?

 

Disney's flailing attempts at boosting Marvels is reminding me of the scene in Miracle when the Soviets don't pull their goalie because they so are accustomed to leading, they don't know how to play from behind.

 

 

One thing it does do - it spikes OW as much as possible on the highest priced tickets - it is the biggest "bang for buck" promotion if you are trying to avoid catastrophic headlines.  If they can sell out IMAX screens, it gets a certain level of return, more than regular 2d screens.

[keysersoze123]

On 11/6/2023 at 6:56 AM, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 64465/708181 1266710.99 3630 shows +3717

Friday - 47657/1053420 893211.29 5361 shows +4938

 

 

 

 

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 70619/736948 1379110.53 3864 shows +6154

Friday - 56514/1121557 1047460.06 5830 shows +8857

 

Eternals - 8373/96944 // it was Monday after Halloween weekend. 

Flash ~ 8800 // not sure why it boosted that much. But it was having mediocre boost until then. 

 

Friday - Flash was at 61K while eternals was at 86111. I think at this point 50m OW looks safe to me unless reviews absolutely stink. But even that may not have that much impact on OW. that will impact legs more than OW I think.  

Edited November 7, 2023 by keysersoze123

[jeffthehat]

On 11/6/2023 at 8:51 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-10

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 20

Seats sold - 191

Total seats - 2680

% sold - 7.12%

New sales - 37 (+24%)

 

Comp 

 

.586x Marvels T-10 = ??

---

 

Excellent day. Sold more tickets than Marvels did today lol 

 

 

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-9

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 20

Seats sold - 229

Total seats - 2680

% sold - 8.5%

New sales - 38 (+19.9%)

 

Comp 

 

.55x Malvels T-9 = ??

---

 

Swapped one of the theaters I track, so Marvels comp is from 9/10 theaters. Also have to make some adjustments for blocked seats. Growth looks really good at this stage. 

 

[Grand Cine]

38 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 70619/736948 1379110.53 3864 shows +6154

Friday - 56514/1121557 1047460.06 5830 shows +8857

 

no new commentary but its in line with my expectations. 

Friday continue to stay at around 3/4 of Eternals so the prediction continue to stay the previews is a little down for low 80's to 3/4 of Eternals if i take just yesterday but i think the prediction of 6,5-7M for previews is good also

[keysersoze123]

Marvels MTC2 Previews(T-3) - 28664/533083 418433.90 3959 shows

 

it sold just under 3K tickets over previous day. Pace and absolute number is terrible. Around half of Eternals. Its well below Flash as well. Its non MTC1 numbers are similar to what @rehpyc posted. So its going to over index over there.