The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/5/2023 at 11:02 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	60	186	430	11497	3.74

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		307	101	71.4
MTC1:		288	100	66.98
Marcus:		46	22	10.7
Alamo:		45	27	10.47
Other chains:		51	37	11.86

 

Comps:

0.42x The Marvels: ???

0.44x FNAF: $4.54 Million

0.84x TMNT (w/ all EA): $4.64 Million

0.25x Barbie (just Thursday): $5.28 Million

 

Average: $4.82 Million 

 

This just keeps climbing up, too soon for the b-word but I sense it looming. Every update, here and elsewhere, is super encouraging!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	60	290	720	11497	6.26

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		503	196	69.86
MTC1:		456	168	63.33
Marcus:		106	60	14.72
Alamo:		68	23	9.44
Other chains:		90	39	12.5

 

Comps:

0.58x The Marvels: ???

0.58x FNAF: $5.95 Million

1.04x TMNT (w/ all EA): $5.7 Million (Last day I have numbers for this sadly)

0.25x Barbie (just Thursday): $5.27 Million

 

Average: $5.64 Million 

 

Interestingly, that Barbie comp stayed virtually flat. Keeping up pace with that monster is really good news; additionally, in my market, The Marvels was doing just fine until T-7, when it started dropping against comps like crazy, so it should continue to grow really healthily against it. 

[Bob Train]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/9/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
11/17/2023	The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes	$38,000,000 – $50,000,000			$97,000,000 – $157,000,000		Lionsgate
11/17/2023	Next Goal Wins	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000			$12,800,000 – $31,500,000		Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/17/2023	Thanksgiving	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	-15%		$17,600,000 – $34,700,000	-15%	Sony / TriStar Pictures
11/17/2023	Trolls Band Together	$21,000,000 – $31,000,000	-4%		$67,000,000 – $113,000,000	-4%	Universal Pictures
11/22/2023	Napoleon	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000	+3%	$23,000,000 – $32,000,000	$54,000,000 – $74,000,000	+3%	Sony Pictures / Apple
11/22/2023	Saltburn (Expansion; Limited Nov. 17)						Amazon Studios / MGM
11/22/2023	Wish	$40,000,000 – $60,000,000		$57,000,000 – $86,800,000	$165,000,000 – $289,000,000		Walt Disney Pictures
12/1/2023	Godzilla Minus One	$5,000,000 – $9,000,000	NEW		$9,000,000 – $18,000,000	NEW	Toho International
12/1/2023	Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé	$27,000,000 – $36,000,000			$40,000,000 – $80,000,000		AMC Theatres Distribution
12/1/2023	The Shift						Angel Studios
12/1/2023	Silent Night	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000			$13,000,000 – $30,000,000		Lionsgate
12/8/2023	The Boy and the Heron						GKIDS
12/8/2023	Eileen (Expansion; Platform Dec. 1)						NEON
12/8/2023	Poor Things (Limited)						Disney / Searchlight Pictures

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-updates-on-the-hunger-games-prequel-trolls-band-together-godzilla-minus-one-and-more/

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/5/2023 at 10:56 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Trolls: Band Together (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	66	18	50	8086	0.62

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		16	5	32
Marcus:		12	8	24
Alamo:		2	0	4
Other chains:		20	5	40

 

Comps:

0.31x TMNT (Just Tuesday): $1.2 Million

0,45x Haunted Mansion (Just Thursday*): $1.35 Million

 

*Ballparking the EA at $100k, it was limited and never reported, so the preview number used here is $3 Million

 

Thanksgiving (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	19	9	48	1899	2.53

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		26	7	54.17
Marcus:		1	1	2.08
Alamo:		19	1	39.58
Other chains:		2	0	4.17

 

Comps:

0.44x The Exorcist: Believer: $1.27 Million

 

Insidious comp next, and then a bunch of horror comps in a week. Tough to judge this one too far out since it's a non-IP horror, it's all about the final week.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Trolls: Band Together (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	67	42	92	8282	1.11

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		10	10	10.87
MTC1:		22	6	23.91
Marcus:		26	14	28.26
Alamo:		2	0	2.17
Other chains:		42	22	45.65

 

Comps:

0.43x TMNT (Just Tuesday): $1.64 Million

0.61x Haunted Mansion (Just Thursday*): $1.81 Million

0.19x Paw Patrol 2: $1.27 Million

*Ballparking the EA at $100k, it was limited and never reported, so the preview number used here is $3 Million

 

Average: $1.57 Million

 

As I thought (and hoped), it is starting to pick up now that the EA is done. I think with the increased pace it'll keep rising into the 2.x value at least.

 

Thanksgiving (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	19	13	61	1899	3.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		30	4	49.18
Marcus:		1	0	1.64
Alamo:		24	5	39.34
Other chains:		6	4	9.84

 

Comps:

0.41x The Exorcist: Believer: $1.17 Million

0.78x Insidious Red Door: $3.91 Million*

 

*Perennial reminder that Insidious was an absolute monster and unique case of walk-ups, so I always struggle with using it as a comp. Leaving it here since it's a data point, but take it a grain (a mountain really) of salt.

 

Anyways, this moving losing steam to the Exorcist, which was on sale for over twice as long as that point, is bad, and this really needs to start picking it up. Again, not too worried, since it's original horror, and I'm adding a buttload of comps in my next update that should provide a clearer picture, but it needs to pick up from now on.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:35am - 12:25pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	280	32143	35411	3268	9.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

407

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal[12:00-12:30]	61.50		642	5314		0/136	13154/18468	28.77%		6409	50.99%		6.60m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	34.80		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	31.20%		6.09m
GOTG3[11:30-12:20]	35.53		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	30.40%		6.22m
TLM [11:40-12:15]	58.33		629	5603		0/225	23553/29156	19.22%		6561	49.81%		6.01m
AtSV [11:40-12:15]	40.51		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	33.54%		7.03m
Flash [11:45-12:15]	76.88		634	4251		0/205	22721/26972	15.76%		5327	61.35%		7.46m
Indy 5 [11:45-12:15]	82.05		478	3983		0/183	20730/24713	16.12%		4767	68.55%		5.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     628/11569  [5.43% sold]
Matinee:    169/3326  [5.08% | 5.17% of all tickets sold]
3D:            270/5133  [5.26% | 8.26% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

You know, this is honestly Not That Bad™.  I mean, still nothing to write home about, but all in all fairly decent beginning of walkups.  Wanted to see around 400 seats sold at mid-day check and it just pipped past that.  Gonna estimate a range of about 6.2 to 6.6 more or less, but if this is top heavy at some of the larger chains, could drag the comp up a bit.

 

Still... Could Be Worse!   Be interesting to see just where Sacto lands at the end of the day.

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:45pm - 4:30pm]

NOTE: All showtimes that started before 3:45pm were sampled at the start of that screening.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	286	32134	36060	3926	10.89%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	6
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	649
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	658

 

T-0 Comps:

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal [4:50-5:20]	61.26		1095	6409		0/147	12843/19252	33.29%		6409	61.26%		6.58m
AM3 [3:45-4:30]	37.48		1083	10475		0/307	26899/37374	28.03%		10475	37.48%		6.56m
GOTG3[3:45-4:30]	36.52		1551	10750		0/347	31169/41919	25.64%		10750	36.52%		6.39m
TLM [3:50-4:15]	59.84		958	6561		0/235	23202/29763	22.04%		6561	59.84%		6.16m
AtSV [3:50-4:20]	40.29		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	40.29%		6.99m
Flash [3:55-4:20]	73.70		1076	5327		0/205	21645/26972	19.75%		5327	73.70%		7.15m
Indy 5 [3:50-4:20]	82.36		784	4767		0/183	20009/24776	19.24%		4767	82.36%		5.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       842/12034  [7.00% sold]
Matinee:    272/3326  [8.18% | 6.93% of all tickets sold]
3D:             337/5317  [6.34% | 8.58% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Set an internal benchmark of approx 625 tickets since the mid-day check and wouldn't you know?  It just cleared that bar, with a bit to spare.  The three MCU comps here, when averaged, spit out 6.51m, and who am I to argue with that?  So let's say 6.5m +/- .5m.

 

"Deadline Early Sources project 5m+ in previews" in three... two...

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/5/2023 at 11:13 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-25, "new seats" includes the last seven days):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	44	15	972	7836	12.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		822	11	84.57
MTC1:		845	13	86.93
Marcus:		54	1	5.56
Alamo:		8	-6	0.82
Other chains:		65	7	6.69

 

*Alamo's update includes seats I found to be blocked off and not actually sold

 

Comp:

0.0827x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $2.87 Million

 

Godzilla Minus One (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-24	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 13 theaters	27	18	58	2977	1.95
Wednesday Nov 29 EA: 9 theaters	10	62	176	1976	8.91
TOTALS:	37	80	234	4953	4.72

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		175	61	74.79
MTC1:		198	63	84.62
Marcus:		23	12	9.83
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		13	5	5.56

 

Comp:

0.28x Oppenheimer: $2.95 Million

 

The Creator comp next update, it's hard to peg this one down because it feels like it will be very EA heavy, at least until way closer to release.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	43	39	1011	7733	13.07

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		856	34	84.67
MTC1:		878	33	86.84
Marcus:		54	0	5.34
Alamo:		12	4	1.19
Other chains:		67	2	6.63

 

Comp:

0.0840x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $2.92 Million

 

First update in a long time that it didn't drop against TET. I feel a bit ridiculous comparing something in the hundreths of decimals and so it's prone to extreme variation but it's the best I can do. Not too far off @Porthos who is using Taylor's Thursday numbers, so I don't feel horrible doing it, but still.

 

Godzilla Minus One (T-21):

Day: T-21, T-20	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 13 theaters	27	34	92	2977	3.09
Wednesday Nov 29 EA: 10 theaters	13	58	234	2642	8.86
TOTALS:	40	92	326	5619	5.8

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:**		221	46	67.79
MTC1:		247	49	75.77
Marcus:		41	18	12.58
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		38	25	11.66

 

**Of these PLF numbers, 4/221 come from Thursday, and everything else comes from EA. Mentioning this to keep in mind ATP for Thursday will be wayyyyyy lower than Wednesday's.

 

Comps (Thursday only) :

0.35x KOFM: $920k

0.1x Oppenheimer: $1.01 Million

 

Early Access Comps:

0.31 Barbie EA: $340k

1.12x MI7 Monday EA: $1.4 Million***

 

***Making a huge, mostly unfounded ballpark that Monday EA was about $1.25 Million out of the total $2 Million (there were more shows on Monday than on Sunday, and Monday EA had PLFs which Sunday did not).

 

Decided to separate Thursday and EA comps after I caused some commotion on Reddit that I did not intend to. EA numbers will hopefully start to converge a bit since Barbie started out super strong and tapered off because of near-sellouts. Thursday numbers are meh.

Edited November 10, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Yes, in the upper half IMO

 

Stop looking into the future off my sheets. 😛

 

FWIW, Sacramento is probably 'actually' pointing at 6.6m or so, but Disney likes to go for .25/.5 increments, even at this level and I don't feel comfy with 6.75m.  That and the weakness we're seeing in some of the smaller metros does make me want to be a tad conservative.

 

As for this?

 

1 hour ago, M37 said:

 Pace, walk-ups, and Friday sales are all decent (relatively speaking), reviews aren't on AMWQ level, and sales pattern by day is nowhere near say Flash to suggest a 6x IM.  Can't say for sure sub-$40M isn't happening, but I have a difficult time reasonably working the math based on data in hand to project it there, barring some kinda of terrible TFri or WOM crash

 

I think all of this is telling us that Disney def miscalculated on its pre-sale strategy.  Not "Historic Own Goal" level.  But maybe Committing a Penalty in the Box level.  Probably would have cleared 7m in previews somewhat/fairly easily if they followed a mix of the GOTG3 and Thor 4 playbook(s) where they had social embargo around T-8/T-9, fan screenings somewhere in the middle, and then review drop around T-3 (one day earlier than it was — but more or less what Thor 4 was, IIRC).

 

Get the fan word out that "No, not as bad as AM3 and not nearly as bad as Morbius". I say that as there does seem to be a clear, if slight, uptick in sales the last couple of days.  Still early on WOM of course (haven't even peeked at any of the threads discussing this and I don't care to — just looking at sales patterns here) so plenty of time for a more Worse Case Scenario for the actual OW.  But early returns are suggesting a misstep on their part.

 

As for why Disney did this?  Maybe they really were waiting on a last minute SAG deal. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯   Shoulda went back to the bargaining table earlier, if that's the case.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Porthos

[tonytr87]

Probably a mistake to have a majority of the marketing centered around two characters general audiences haven't seen before. Most of the folks who flocked to phase 3 do not watch the Disney Plus series. 

[Zakiyyah6]

19 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

Probably a mistake to have a majority of the marketing centered around two characters general audiences haven't seen before. Most of the folks who flocked to phase 3 do not watch the Disney Plus series. 

Probably a bigger mistake to even have television characters co-staring in the sequel to your billion dollar hit. Making the sequel to your billion dollar hit look like a Disney Plus series will never be smart. I honestly think this is the biggest blunder that Disney has made in a long time. 

[vafrow]

On 11/8/2023 at 6:33 PM, vafrow said:

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-8, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 193

New sales: 14

Growth: 7.8%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 21

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.476x of Marvels for ??

 

Single theatre comps

0.300x T:ROTB for $2.6M

1.200x IJ:DoD for $8.6M

Avg: $6.7M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis 

Avg: 9.2

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 1.8

Early Evening: 17.3

Late Evening: 3.8

 

By format:

Regular: 4.0

Dolby: 10.4

VIP: 11.8

IMAX: 9.3

4DX: 6.0

 

Not really a great day. It only got two showtimes added with the new schedules. Growth was under 10% for the first time, and actually caused tickets per showtime to go down.

 

It needs to average 22% growth to catch Marvels as of my last update. Even with good reviews and positive word of mouth, I'm not sure if it can do it. But, it probably can count on better walk ups and IM to get it past tje line. Still, I'd like to see it doing better.

 

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-7, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 210

New sales: 17

Growth: 8.8%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 21

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.481x of Marvels for ??

 

Single theatre comps

0.300x T:ROTB for $2.6M

0.857x IJ:DoD for $6.2M

Avg: $4.4M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis 

Avg: 10.0

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 2.8

Early Evening: 17.7

Late Evening: 5.0

 

By format:

Regular: 4.3

Dolby: 11.9

VIP: 11.8

IMAX: 9.8

4DX: 8.0

 

Not a tremendous day again. I wonder if it's going to settle into this 5-10% range until early next week, which won't leave it a lot of time to catch up.

[tonytr87]

2 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Probably a bigger mistake to even have television characters co-staring in the sequel to your billion dollar hit. Making the sequel to your billion dollar hit look like a Disney Plus series will never be smart. I honestly think this is the biggest blunder that Disney has made in a long time. 

 

That Spotlight thing they're doing, where the shows under that banner aren't connected to the rest of the MCU, that should apply to all of the series. Disney Plus series should operate like the Netflix series did. They connect to one another and maybe occasionally reference what's going on in the big screen MCU, but otherwise they're their own thing. 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 92900/783347 1778477.62 4256 shows +11737

Friday - 81204/1266783 1465765.32 6914 shows +12894

 

 

Really meh increase as we had reactions/reviews over past 24 hours. I guess them being really meh did not help at all. I think @M37 has to be on the point on this. 

The Marvels MTC1

Previews Final - 132941/788754 2450558.49 4295 shows +40041 

Friday - 103929/1276061 1835583.75 6971 shows +22725

 

Really meh walkups after meh presales yesterday. I guess meh reviews just made it a damp squib. This has been the strongest TC looking at how bad other big TC's have been. I am thinking ~6.6m previews based on how overall things are looking. 

[grim22]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Get the fan word out that "No, not as bad as AM3 and not nearly as bad as Morbius". 

 

No offense, but this is the funniest sentence ever written to describe a movie.

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

No offense, but this is the funniest sentence ever written to describe a movie.

 

I mean, the way some folks were (and in fact are currently) losing their heads over this movie... 

 

More to the point, and to keep it on topic, I'm absolutely convinced it would have helped with pre-sales.  Not turned it into a major success.  And maybe not even changed the trajectory of the OW all that much.  But the pre-sales were absolutely lifeless and anemic before WOM, mixed as it might be, started to get out.  And lo and behold only started to change once folks actually saw it. Funny, that.

 

So, gotta call it like I see it: Disney fumbled the ball when it came to the pre-sale rollout/marketing of that film.  

Hardly the first time they've dropped the ball when it comes to marketing, it must be said (*cough* not that I'm gonna name names here or anything *cough*).  But is one of the first times they've dropped the ball when it comes to marketing an MCU flick.

 

In the end, I'm just saying that Disney whiffed by allowing a perception (Morbius or Quantumania level disaster incoming) to form/linger when they could have done something to quell that by simply following one of their standard pre-sale playbooks.

Either way, any further commentary I have is almost certainly outside of the scope of this thread, so consider all of the above a critique/commentary of their pre-sale marketing strategy and not much else.  

[HummingLemon496]

Probably over/under $45M OW

[keysersoze123]

Trolls Band Together MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 4308/312489 61796.26 2066 shows 

Friday - 7227/415591 103188.75 2632 shows

 

Dont Forget it did around 1m in early shows. Presales for next week is still meh. Let us see how it goes close to release.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

I mean, the way some folks were (and in fact are currently) losing their heads over this movie... 

 

More to the point, and to keep it on topic, I'm absolutely convinced it would have helped with pre-sales.  Not turned it into a major success.  And maybe not even changed the trajectory of the OW all that much.  But the pre-sales were absolutely lifeless and anemic before WOM, mixed as it might be, started to get out.  And lo and behold only started to change once folks actually saw it. Funny, that.

 

So, gotta call it like I see it: Disney fumbled the ball when it came to the pre-sale rollout/marketing of that film.  

Hardly the first time they've dropped the ball when it comes to marketing, it must be said (*cough* not that I'm gonna name names here or anything *cough*).  But is one of the first times they've dropped the ball when it comes to marketing an MCU flick.

 

In the end, I'm just saying that Disney whiffed by allowing a perception (Morbius or Quantumania level disaster incoming) to form/linger when they could have done something to quell that by simply following one of their standard pre-sale playbooks.

Either way, any further commentary I have is almost certainly outside of the scope of this thread, so consider all of the above a critique/commentary of their pre-sale marketing strategy and not much else.  

 

True though overall the biggest thing that hurt them in marketing is not being able to employ their cast in the rollout. 

[Porthos]

On 11/3/2023 at 1:18 AM, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	71	10153	10801	648	6.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday

33

 

Percentage of sales versus TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.63717x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.14m] [1.2x adj]

 

Next update Next Thursday night.

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	67	9555	10271	716	6.97%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Thursday	2
Total Seats Removed Since Thursday	340
Total Seats Sold Since Thursday	18

 

Percentage of sales versus TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.70403x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.37m] [1.2x adj]

 

Next update Thursday night.

Edited November 13, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 11/5/2023 at 11:52 PM, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-11]

500/12539 (3.99% sold) [+69 tickets] [82 showings]

 

1.16009x GBA at T-11                [5.22m] [UNADJ FOR ATP HIKES SINCE 2021]
0.60386x FB3 at T-11                [3.62m]
0.46555x BA at T-11                  [3.54m]
0.71023x Scream VI at T-11      [4.05m] [UNADJ FOR ATP DIFF]
0.26838x TLM at T-11               [2.76m]
0.22252x AtSV at T-11              [3.86m]
0.51125x RotB at T-11               [4.50m]
0.23277x FNAF at T-11             [2.40m]
0.39968x The Marvels at T-11 [??m]

 

===

 

All comps rising is a very good sign, obvs.  Perhaps the best sign is Ghostbusters: Afterlife also rising as that had a similar pre-sale window length (T-17 vs T-15). Might sit down and do a rudimentary 2021->2023 ATP hike for it.

 

Either way, headed in the right direction.   Not sure when I'll do my next check.  No later than T-7.  Might do it earlier if the local conditions warrant.

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-7]

823/12989 (6.34% sold) [+113 tickets] [85 showings]

 

1.11821x GBA at T-7                   [5.69m] [ADJ FOR ATP HIKES SINCE 2021]
0.62538x FB3 at T-7                  [3.75m]
0.58912x BA at T-7                    [4.48m]
0.33980x TLM at T-7                 [3.50m]
0.27171x AtSV at T-7                  [4.71m]
0.65369x RotB at T-7                [5.75m]
0.30268x FNAF at T-7               [3.12m]
0.53721x The Marvels at T-7    [??m]

 

=====

 

Removed the Scream VI comp but went ahead and used my ad-hoc Eternals ATP adj of 1.13047x for GBA as I don't want to think of a better one at the moment.

 

Rise of the Beasts and Ghostbusters: Afterlife are the standout comps here, and perhaps the best ones.  Though given the reviews weren't aren't as glowing as initially thought they might be for BoSS, perhaps not.  Not sure if this will clear 6m when all is said and done as it's gonna need to keep the helium rising which might be tough with the RT score.

 

FWIW, since @M37 mentioned it, Barbs spits out a 4.47m comp which is in line with a few of the other GA comps and in fact has been more or less stable the last few days [T-10: 4.46m | T-9: 4.34m | T-8: 4.32m ] with only minor fluctuation. 

 

Still, will probably want to see how it does over the next couple of days before penciling in a range.  Might end up doing another Q&D report tomorrow night, otherwise I'll make one at T-4, Sunday Night.

[Eric is Anxious]

Quorum Updates

The Holdovers T-1: 22.04% Awareness

The Boy and the Heron T-29: 18.42%

Migration T-43: 24.67%

 

Journey to Bethlehem T-1: 27.88% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

 

The Marvels T-1: 62.8% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 94% chance of 50M, 81% chance of 60M, 62% chance of 70M, 44% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 75% chance of 100M

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-8: 54.92% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 69% chance of 30M, 30% chance of 40M, 26% chance of 50M, 17% chance of 60M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M

 

Thanksgiving T-8: 41.97% Awareness

Final Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 56% chance of 20M, 32% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 29% chance of 40M

 

Trolls Band Together T-8: 53.79% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 69% chance of 30M, 30% chance of 40M, 26% chance of 50M, 17% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

 

Next Goal Wins T-8: 18.41% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

 

Mean Girls T-64: 29.54% Awareness

Final Awareness: 58% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 31% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

[M37]

On 11/8/2023 at 9:32 AM, M37 said:

The Marvels Preview Tracking T-2 Update

 

Big Picture update: despite the soft weekend numbers, where the average dipped from $7.13M at T-7 to $6.5 at T-3, sales have been pretty good over the last two days, and - pending poor reviews - should have a decent finish, at least against the GOTG3 and Eternals comps

Chart updated with Rehpyc's update to T-2 numbers

 

With that said, getting into the weeds a bit ...

 

  Reveal hidden contents

The data here has me scratching my head a bit.  Flash comps remain high, as that title had very good walk-ups for a CBM, and the expectation is that those come down on the final day as the presale heavier MCU can't keep up.  However, even excluding those, of the 18 non-Flash comps, only four are within $0.5M of the average:

• Orlando GOTG3 (as mentioned before)
• Drafthouse GOTG3
• Sacto Eternals
• Minn/St Paul MI7 (Tue opening)

If one were looking at just MTC1 and a handful of other comps, $7M+ would seem very likely. But on the opposite end, many comps - including MTC2 & MTC3 - would point to like $5M for previews. That's a fairly large discrepancy, and not among smaller markets prone to variance, but the big boys, and growing. Those lower comp values cannot be glossed over, and maybe that changes and corrects over the next couple of days, and samples mostly converge, but if they don't, that gap suggests to me a weakness in GA that will manifest in some way: poor walk-ups, lower IM, or something similar

 

The Marvels Preview Tracking Final Update

 

With the final day Flash comps dropping as expected, average settled at $6.61M officially

,

 

The answer will be mid to high $6M range, maybe just enough for $7, depends on how much of an over & under index we see among the various markets and MTCs, so $6.8 +/- $0.2M for me. Kinda thinking Disney reports $7.0 flat (which is exactly where Spider-Verse PSMs would put it, actually), certainly rather than a very nice $6.9M. Basically no different than where it was a week ago; Marvels tracking was more of an exercise in precision than volume, unfortunately.

 

On that note

On 11/8/2023 at 9:49 PM, M37 said:

Looking at today's numbers and pace overall, projections for final sales

• MTC1 = 130-135K (92K/133K officially)
• Orlando ~4500
• Sacto ~3800

15 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

The Marvels

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
323	4508	66017	6.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 3:00PM EST}

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:45pm - 4:30pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	286	32134	36060	3926	10.89%

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews Final - 132,941/788754 2450558.49 4295 shows +40041