The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Flip]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Wonka might have some great late growth

i would be shocked if RT is under 75%, Paul King is insanely talented

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, Relevation said:

I mean yeah it’s not gonna make $1B DOM like Shrek 5 but I think the 8 year wait is good to build up nostalgia for the KFP brand. All 3 installments were well received and are looked back fondly upon, the first 3 films all opened to $50M+ adjusted (the first peaked at $86M for an original animated film!) and it has a good release date as the first all access blockbuster of 2024. Maybe $80M is a little much, but $65-70M is in the cards imo.

Yeah, the first was very impressive in its day, hence why I said the franchise never really ignited to the big one it seemed like. The 2nd not outgrossing 1, despite good critical reception, was genuinely shocking at the time. The first is more of a “hit in its day” rather than a lingering pop culture presence.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

Do you have a day one Mario comp? That honestly might work imo given they’re both non Disney family films with a fanbase element 

I dumped the Mario comp a while ago because I used Atom back then. Now I use fandango which has so much more TCs

[Flip]

16 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I still think people are going to sleep on The Fall Guy potential for a big OW. That first trailer seemed to play well and seemed made for that General audience we all talk about.  Universal would not have moved it to that summer kickoff date if they did not believe they had the goods. They could be wrong and be misjudging it. Would not be the first time a studio missed on that. They will go heavy on the marketing from the Super Bowl on I assume.

I think Bullet Train showed that the limit for an action film that's not part of a big franchise OW is around 30m

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

The Hunger Games is now rotten so sales should plunge a bit.

It had a 14% increase today compared to a 22% increase yesterday which is pretty terrible for something in its final couple of hours of presales. 

[Austin]

1 hour ago, tonytr87 said:

Wonka getting to 150 mil will be a win. It's an old IP. 

 

What I don't get is Hunger Games tracking at 50 mil. Maybe Gen Z doesn't read as much as millennials. 

No, no we do not.

[Flip]

42 minutes ago, Giorno said:

any boy and the heron tracking?

Would be hard to extrapolate anything concrete (there's IMAX EA on the 4th, fan event on the 6th, sporadic showings starting next Tuesday), but overall selling strongly, though if I had to guess I'd say it's sold less than Godzilla

[TheFlatLannister]

Getting back to the KFP/Dune 2 debate...I'm way more bullish on Panda than Dune 

 

I could see $80M+ OW for KFP4 as kids who grew up with those films are now adults - should play strong in terms of nostalgia 

 

Dune will surely blow past $50M OW (I think). However, I do think it has a hard ceiling due to the genre and niche audience pool. $70M would be my ceiling. 

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, Flip said:

I think Bullet Train showed that the limit for an action film that's not part of a big franchise OW is around 30m

Well that was R rated compared to Fall Guy's PG-13. Also aren't audiences showing lately they are tired of the old franchises and want to start some new ones.

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Getting back to the KFP/Dune 2 debate...I'm way more bullish on Panda than Dune 

 

I could see $80M+ OW for KFP4 as kids who grew up with those films are now adults - should play strong in terms of nostalgia 

 

Dune will surely blow past $50M OW (I think). However, I do think it has a hard ceiling due to the genre and niche audience pool. $70M would be my ceiling. 

70 would a awesome OW for Dune. I am not even close to being that bullish.

[emoviefan]

26 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

It had a 14% increase today compared to a 22% increase yesterday which is pretty terrible for something in its final couple of hours of presales. 

Yikes it seems the reviews really  killed this movie's potential. 

[TheFlatLannister]

41 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

70 would a awesome OW for Dune. I am not even close to being that bullish.

I don't think $70M is too crazy of a prediction. As @Bob Train stated earlier, Dune 1 did open to $41M with a pandemic and a day to date MAX release. 

[keysersoze123]

On 11/14/2023 at 8:00 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 57009/458541 1048685.19 2573 shows +6220

Friday - 64891/699951 1148092.57 3947 shows +10101

 

That is not good. I guess @TwoMisfits was right about Atom deal bumping up the sales. Let me chew on this and predict its OW tomorrow. 

 

 

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 66594/468906 1210869.52 2632 shows +9585

Friday - 78287/741684 1370572.91 4233 shows +13396

 

Another just Ok day. I hope walkups are good. I could see this make just 5.3-5.5m in previews and low 40s OW. Disappointing. 

 

[Austin]

4 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I don't think $70M is too crazy of a prediction. As @Bob Train stated earlier, Dune 1 did open to $41M with a pandemic and a day to date MAX release. 

And it was well-received

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wonka (T-29, Day 1, Taken around 11 PM CST):

Day: T-29	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	54	47	47	10150	0.46

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		47	47	100
MTC1:		32	32	68.09
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		9	9	19.15
Other chains:		6	6	12.77

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.85x The Color Purple: ??

1x Napoleon: ??

0.24x Hunger Games: $1.39 Million (using comp average from my earlier update, $5.67M)

0.23x FNAF: $2.44 Million

1.24x The Creator: $1.98 Million

 

Missed all the fun talk from earlier it seems! Anyway a mish mash of Day 1 comps that all point to what @TheFlatLannister said earlier: no early rush. I don't think many were expecting that though, so we shall see how it progresses from here.

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I don't think $70M is too crazy of a prediction. As @Bob Train stated earlier, Dune 1 did open to $41M with a pandemic and a day to date MAX release. 

Would be great. It would be so nice to have this movie was out right now. But alas have to wait another 4 months to the day. 

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-2]

1573/17186 (9.15% sold) [+265 tickets] [136 showings]

 

1.04172x GBA at T-2                  [5.30m] [ADJUSTED FOR ATP HIKES]
0.65678x FB3 at T-2                 [3.94m]
0.61230x BA at T-2                   [4.65m]
0.39602x TLM at T-2                [4.08m]
0.29113x AtSV at T-2                [5.05m]
0.62870x RotB at T-2               [5.53m]
0.37275x FNAF at T-2              [3.84m]
0.65899x The Marvels at T-2  [4.35m]

 

====

 

Been having internet troubles; T-7 Wish report will be up sometime tomorrow. I have most of the data, but not in a form ready for posting.

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-1]

1962/17436 (11.25% sold) [+389 tickets] [141 showings]

 

0.94327x GBA at T-1                [4.80m] [Adjusted for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.64710x FB3 at T-1                 [3.88m]
0.62207x BA at T-1                   [4.73m]
0.39445x TLM at T-1               [4.06m]
0.27889x AtSV at T-1               [4.84m]
0.57168x RotB at T-1                [5.03m]
0.38075x FNAF at T-1              [3.92m]
0.68577x The Marvels at T-1  [4.53m]

 

=====

 

Yeaaaah, I dunno.  5m looking really dicey if Sacramento is indicative.

 

Right about now is when I remind everyone that the patented Sacto Dark Magic™ does not (necessarily) apply to Quick and Dirty's, but... Well, trend arrow is in the wrong direction.  Could still clear 5m, especially since nearly every other market looks to be performing better.  On the other hand, when literally only one comp is clearing 5m and that only just...

 

Meh.  Just not doing well here, probably.  Either that or shitty comps.

Find out soon enuf, I suppose.

[Porthos]

Did go ahead and pull D1 Wonka numbers locally, FWIW.  Let's call it a Not-Even-Quick-And-Dirty Spot Check:

 

Spot Check for Wonka - Sacramento Report [T-29]

57/18935 (0.30% sold) [105 showtimes]

 

BELOW EDITED IN AFTER POSTING AND THINKING ABOUT IT::::

 

Probably the best comp D1 I have, now that I sit and think on it:

1.54054x Elemental D1 [T-29]                       [3.7m]

 

Considering the ATP ought to be higher, that's maybe not a bad sign for 4m+ after all.

 

(Wish, due to the mix of EA and Discount Tuesday, I'm not even going to bother with)

 

 

======================

 

Rest of Original Post With Not Very Good Comps At All:

0.14467x Dune on D1 [T-17]                     [738k]

1.00000x Nope on D1 [T-42]                    [6.4m]

0.33529x Nope at T-29                           [2.15m]

0.31844x Oppenheimer on D1 [T-49]    [3.34m]

0.08190x Oppenheimer at T-29               [860k]
 

These are — ummmm — not exactly helpful, I realize. Hence the "Spot Check" moniker. 😛

 

If I want to have films with/near T-29 pre-sale windows we do have:

0.26760x Scream VI on D1 [T-29]         [1.53m]

0.48301x Shazam 2 on D1 [T-28]          [1.64m]

0.12555x TLM on D1 [T-29]                   [1.29m]

0.130734x Barbie D1 ONLY [T-29]       [2.92m] [DOES NOT INCLUDE EA ONLY SALES FROM PRIOR DAY]

0.09019x Barbie ALL SALES [T-29]     [2.01m] [DOES INCLUDE EA ONLY SALES PREVIOUS DAY]

0.31319x Sonic 2 on D1 [T-24]              [1.96m]

 

With the exception of possibly D1 only Barbie, not too helpful either.  And even that is just giving similar info that Oppenheimer D1 gave.

 

Finally, the obligatory "You're Telling Me There's a Chance" comp:

0.83823x Minions 2 on D1 [T-24]        [9.01m]

Yes *DO* let reddit know immediately, thanks.

=====

 

So, no, probably none of these comps are very good right now, mostly due to timing and genre.  Will get much better later in the run, but even with those comments out of the way, fairly soft start locally.

 

No idea when my next check will be, but not for a good long while (unless it shows signs of blowing up/accelerating, of course).  Unless it really starts to follow, say, the Nope pre-sale pattern that is (and even there it has to do much better than Nope considering the difference in pre-sale window length).

 

ETA:::::

 

Should note that I remembered that I did have the D1 for Elemental, which I have edited to the top of the post.  Left everything else in the post, even though it probably has next to nil actual value.

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Porthos
Added in Elemental comp I remembered I had

[CJohn]

Napoleon also dead with that barely fresh score that will likely turn rotten soon. November is a mess.

[M37]

On 11/15/2023 at 7:01 AM, M37 said:

Hunger Games: BoSS Preview Tracking T-2 Update

 

I know others are suggesting higher, but to me continues to looks like $5.5-$6M Thursday

 

 

Friday sales remain strong, at 95% of Marvels at this same T-2 checkpoint for MTC1, which led to a $15M TFri (with a holiday bump), and though there is no data beyond that day, puts an 8x or more IM in play with reasonable Sat/Sun daily changes.  Most likely $40-$50M for OW, could wind up very close to where Marvels landed ($46.1M)

 

Starting to get the sense overall that 40 is the new 60.  Where in summer we had 5 consecutive weeks of $55M+ openers, with Fast X, Transformers and Flash have OWs of $67M, $61M, $55M, now Marvels, HG: BoSS and Wish could give us consecutive $40M OWs. Only there is no $100M OW for Mermaid or ATSV in that run

Hunger Games: BoSS Preview Tracking T-1 Update

 

At the risk of repeating myself: still looking like $5.5-$6M Thursday to me

 

MTC1 should hit (or at least be very close to) 100K at final (+50%), and if we see very good walk-ups (like Fast X/JWD level) then 110K is in play. Sacto is likely to underindex on this title, as it seems to be playing to a more casual audience (see Minny and esp OK comp values), less the traditional fan audience that brings out the Dark Magic

 

Trolls

Rather than write another post ....

Those MTC1 sales are terrible, but looking at regional comps think ~$1.5M, maybe a bit under.  Friday sales are better, but also not really inspiring. Think the pre-Thanksgiving opening means families know they have a 10.5 day window rather than a true OW, and with little fan rush is spreading demand out a bit, and/or the presence of Wish is holding back sales as well. Definitely thinking more mid-$20s opening now (and again I don't understand this release date choice rather than 1-2 weekends earlier)