The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

On 1/30/2024 at 3:51 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
705	33	1353	52.11%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

308

1794

17.17%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

226

1388

16.28%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1154	53	18464	6.25%	13	89

 

1.421

Oppenheimer T-30

14.92M

 

Getting some errors with Alamo Drafthouse, so no numbers for it today.

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
722	17	1353	53.36%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

315

1794

17.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

242

1388

17.44%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1192	38	18464	6.46%	13	89

 

1.416

Oppenheimer T-29

14.86M

[Inceptionzq]

On 1/29/2024 at 4:05 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-31 Thursday

155 Showings

4627

+540

23827

ATP:

19.17

2.005

Oppenheimer T-31

21.05M

 

T-32 Friday

243 Showings

5216

+787

36756

ATP:

18.40

2.648

Oppenheimer T-32

59.62M

 

T-33 Saturday

257 Showings

6006

+955

38824

ATP:

17.78

2.466

Oppenheimer T-33

65.45M

 

T-34 Sunday

234 Showings

2783

+513

35115

ATP:

18.50

2.252

Oppenheimer T-34

52.22M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2 [+2 days of sales]

T-29 Thursday

159 Showings

5102

+475

24359

ATP:

19.00

2.006

Oppenheimer T-29

21.07M

 

T-30 Friday

243 Showings

5732

+516

36761

ATP:

18.32

2.582

Oppenheimer T-30

58.14M

 

T-31 Saturday

257 Showings

6717

+711

38820

ATP:

17.73

2.412

Oppenheimer T-31

64.03M

 

T-32 Sunday

234 Showings

3282

+499

35111

ATP:

18.22

2.257

Oppenheimer T-32

52.34M

[Inceptionzq]

On 1/30/2024 at 3:53 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-30 Thursday

104 Showings

537

+45

16555

1.229

Oppenheimer T-30

12.90M

 

T-31 Friday

163 Showings

520

+22

26801

2.088

Oppenheimer T-31

47.03M

 

T-32 Saturday

168 Showings

453

+26

28076

2.589

Oppenheimer T-32

67.95M

 

T-33 Sunday

162 Showings

114

+9

26868

1.390

Oppenheimer T-33

32.24M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-29 Thursday

104 Showings

594

+57

17509

1.305

Oppenheimer T-29

13.71M

 

T-30 Friday

163 Showings

562

+42

27763

1.965

Oppenheimer T-30

44.25M

 

T-31 Saturday

168 Showings

498

+45

28739

2.465

Oppenheimer T-31

64.72M

 

T-32 Sunday

162 Showings

136

+22

27840

1.511

Oppenheimer T-32

35.04M

[Driver]

4 hours ago, Pinacolada said:

I agree. Hence, why I think Apple's gonna be waiting a little bit longer to have their first true theatrical hit. I think both of those 2 upcoming films have legit potential, but they're spending way too much on these package deals. 

 

They both should be substantially lower than KotFM, Napoleon, and Argylle though

 

They're originals. If they make 100 mil domestic I'd consider that a success. 

[leoh]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

I'm seeing 2.0 tickets per showtime for my zone, and the quick count last night had <1 per showtime for my Friday pull, so numbers look pretty consistent just off first blush for the Canadian markets.

 

I've been wondering what multiplier effect we may get here. Things really look to be leaning towards a front load. The problem is, there aren't a lot of Valentine's Day debuts on a Wednesday. The most recent one i can find is 2007 Music and Lyrics. Madame Web isn't going to perform exactly like a Valentine's Day RomCom, but, if it does, M&L did $19.1M off of a $4.2M opening day. Seeing the drop off from Wednesday so far is making me wonder how close to that type of performance we might see, and how big a Wednesday we need to keep $30M for the five day in play. If $4M couldn't land $20M, it's hard to see how it could land $30M for MW. 

 

Valentine's Day is such a unique holiday though. I'm not sure of the more analytical types like @M37 have thoughts.

In NY it’s selling way better than I could have predicted. Considering only AMC NY theaters, Madame Web is selling better than Aquaman, Morbius and Blue Beetle. Considering this and pre sales other trackers posted here from other locations, I’d say that it seems to be making on VDay between 4M and 5M.

 

So how much could it make in the 5 days OW? It’ll depend heavily on WoM. If it’s a good WoM, the 40M+ 5 day OW is achievable. For example, Uncharted made $3,700,000 on Thursday (Feb 17) and landed 44M OW. Fifty Shades Darker made 5.7M on Thursday and landed 46M OW.

 

That’s why I am shocked for seeing it making 4M to 5M on VDay. It’s not a massive number, but the fact that this makes possible a 40M+ OW is really surprising for me (I was kind of trashing it before the pre sales open lol)

 

Edited February 1 by leoh

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-30

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3295	104695	3.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

181

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1389

*59 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-30

 

(1.494x) of Oppenheimer $15.68M 

(0.916x) of Indy 5 $6.59M 

(0.370x) of GOTG vol 3 $6.48M 

(2.611x) of Aquaman 2 $11.75M 

Comps AVG: $10.13M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3412	104695	3.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

117

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1424

*35 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-29

 

(1.465x) of Oppenheimer $15.38M 

(0.930x) of Indy 5 $6.69M 

(2.865x) of Wonka $10.03M 

(2.278x) of Aquaman 2 $10.25M 

Comps AVG: $10.59M

 

Just echoing what others have said...Kind of at the bottom of the U curve here

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	2080	93918	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

402

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

562

*38 seats sold 

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(1.100x) of Blue Beetle $3.64M 

(0.614x) of AquaMan 2 $2.76M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.2M

*NOT A GREAT COMP DUE TO PREVEIWS VS FULL DAY OF B.O.

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	2203	93918	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

123

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

612

*50 seats sold 

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(1.159x) of Blue Beetle $3.83M 

(0.656x) of AquaMan 2 $2.95M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.39M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 1/30/2024 at 9:05 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

ARGYLLE

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
438	2385	82493	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

114

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.701x) of Mean Girls $2.31M 

 

Looks like ~$2M+

FLORIDA 

 

ARGYLLE

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
438	2746	82493	3.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

361

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.606x) of Mean Girls $1.99M 

(2.104x) of Night Swim $3.16M 

 

AVG: $2.58M

 

It's in a complete free fall...Kind of expected 

Edited February 1 by TheFlatLannister

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

ARGYLLE

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
438	2746	82493	3.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

361

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.606x) of Mean Girls $1.99M 

(2.104x) of Night Swim $3.16M 

 

AVG: $2.58M

 

It's in a complete free fall...Kind of expected 

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/29/2024 at 10:02 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Madame Web (T-16, Day 1, 9:30 PM):

Day: T-16	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	93	75	75	17143	0.44

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		60	60	80
MTC1:		60	60	80
Marcus:		3	3	4
Alamo:		2	2	2.67
Other chains:		10	10	13.33

 

Day 1 Comps:

1.01x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.56 Million

1.6x Wonka: $5.59 Million

0.39x BoSS: $2.25 Million

0.38x FNAF: $3.9 Million

 

Average: $4.07 Million

 

Not bad at all for Day 1, but like others have brought up, it is Valentine's Day and not previews. We shall see where it goes from here, I think this and One Love combo could bring a decent boost to February's box office

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Madame Web (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	99	35	110	18024	0.61

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		85	60	77.27
MTC1:		73	60	66.36
Marcus:		11	3	10
Alamo:		8	2	7.27
Other chains:		18	10	16.36

 

Comps:

0.43x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $1.93 Million

0.57x Wonka: $2 Million

0.45x BoSS: $2.59 Million

0.58x Mean Girls: $1.87 Million

 

Average: $2.1 Million

 

All of these comps bar BoSS had much longer windows, so the comp values aren't super helpful at this point and should not be taken as representative of where sales actually are. Not a great two days since Day 1 though

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/27/2024 at 9:17 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Bob Marley: One Love (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	62	62	119	9196	1.29

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		48	18	40.34
MTC1:		12	12	10.08
Marcus:		33	4	27.73
Alamo:		15	15	12.61
Other chains:		59	31	49.58

 

Comps:

0.18x The Color Purple: $2.7 Million

0.75x Wonka: $2.64 Million

0.4x KoFM: $1.04 Million

1.75x The Creator (THU): $2.36 Million

 

Average: $2.19 Million

 

MTC1 and Alamo finally put this on sale, so the comps are now full comps (hence the drops). I wonder when MTC1 put this on sale, because I think it must have been really recently. I also think that will catch up and the comps will go up, since this is showing some real strength in other chains. Still thinking this does better than some folks are thinking.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Bob Marley: One Love (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	63	211	330	9240	3.57

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		107	59	32.42
MTC1:		100	88	30.3
Marcus:		64	31	19.39
Alamo:		53	38	16.06
Other chains:		113	54	34.24

 

Comps:

0.3x The Color Purple: $4.63 Million

0.98x KoFM: $2.55 Million

2.89x The Creator (THU): $3.91 Million

 

Average: $3.7 Million

 

Ummm what the fuck? I knew MTC1 would bounce back a bit since it came into sale late compared to other chains (pretty shocked at Key's bad updates, really thought it would show that too), but was not expecting this at all. Maybe a sign of good things to come, or maybe just one of those random MSP overperformances a la Boys on the Boat

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/30/2024 at 9:08 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	67	65	302	11375	2.65

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		225	39	74.5
MTC1:		218	46	72.19
Marcus:		10	3	3.31
Alamo:		34	4	11.26
Other chains:		40	12	13.25

 

Comps:

0.5x Napoleon: $1.5 Million

0.34x KOFM: $890k

0.83x The Creator: $1.12 Million

1.34x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $1.6 Million

2x Iron Claw: $1.34 Million

0.51x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $2.31 Million

0.84x Blue Beetle: $2.78 Million

 

Average: $1.65 Million

 

Rose against all comps, good stuff.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	71	53	355	11587	3.06

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		259	34	72.96
MTC1:		256	38	72.11
Marcus:		14	4	3.94
Alamo:		38	4	10.7
Other chains:		47	7	13.24

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	17.55
3-Day:	74.88

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.39x Napoleon: $1.17 Million (50%, 124%)

0.32x KOFM: $840k (23%, 64%)

1.48x Haunting in Venice: $1.63 Million (18%, 90%)

1.97x Iron Claw: $1.32 Million (19%, 71%)

0.48x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $2.31 Million (26%, 73%)

0.77x Blue Beetle: $2.54 Million (28%, 95%)

 

Average: $1.64 Million

 

Bleh final day and final week. I will likely do a final update tomorrow but from here and with the bad reviews I have a hard time seeing it even reach 2 million

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Bob Marley: One Love (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	63	211	330	9240	3.57

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		107	59	32.42
MTC1:		100	88	30.3
Marcus:		64	31	19.39
Alamo:		53	38	16.06
Other chains:		113	54	34.24

 

Comps:

0.3x The Color Purple: $4.63 Million

0.98x KoFM: $2.55 Million

2.89x The Creator (THU): $3.91 Million

 

Average: $3.7 Million

 

Ummm what the fuck? I knew MTC1 would bounce back a bit since it came into sale late compared to other chains (pretty shocked at Key's bad updates, really thought it would show that too), but was not expecting this at all. Maybe a sign of good things to come, or maybe just one of those random MSP overperformances a la Boys on the Boat

So MTC 1 started late? My data is way way way higher. Color Purple comp for me is 45% though TCP underindexed for me and this may be overindexing. 

[dallas]

Argylle

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-1

73 tickets sold (+21)

 

(1.377x) of The Beekeeper - $3.3 Million

(0.271x) of Aquaman 2 - $1.22 Million

COMPS AVG - $2.26 Million

 

Well, this is just sad. I don't know if this even hits $2.5M at this point. What a pathetic final day. Will try to post a T-0 update tomorrow around noon, but if there's no change then I won't even bother. 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Valentine's Day:

 

Bob Marley: One Love (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	63	211	330	9240	3.57

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		107	59	32.42
MTC1:		100	88	30.3
Marcus:		64	31	19.39
Alamo:		53	38	16.06
Other chains:		113	54	34.24

 

Comps:

0.3x The Color Purple: $4.63 Million

0.98x KoFM: $2.55 Million

2.89x The Creator (THU): $3.91 Million

 

Average: $3.7 Million

 

Ummm what the fuck? I knew MTC1 would bounce back a bit since it came into sale late compared to other chains (pretty shocked at Key's bad updates, really thought it would show that too), but was not expecting this at all. Maybe a sign of good things to come, or maybe just one of those random MSP overperformances a la Boys on the Boat

Answering your question, I think the main issue here is that you’re making a comparison to a movie that opened on December 25 (the best day of the entire year to release any movie). Moreover, the comparison may also damage your track because, beyond the DEC 25 factor, The Color Purple open with almost 20M. It’s reasonable to say that till the summer there’s no movie that we can compare with The Color Purple OD without damaging our tracks.

 

So I’d say that it could work better for your track if you compare it to other biopics. For example, Elvis was released just 1 and half year ago, I think it would fit way more than a movie that debuted with almost 20M on DEC 25. 
 

We can see OL is closer to a KOTFM OD* (2.6M) rather than to a TCP (19M) or The Creator (1.6M). Therefore movies with around 3M OD would work better to your track. Then Elvis biopic would be a great comparison.
 

*I’m using Opening Day as synonym for “first day of release” of course.

Edited February 1 by leoh

[dallas]

Bob Marley: One Love

 

Wednesday Opening Day

 

T-14

62 tickets sold (+21)

 

Comps:

(0.092x) of The Color Purple - $1.66 Million

 

Wish I had more comps but TCP is my only one. Overall, better than I was expecting. It's selling at an excellent pace thus far so I expect it to rise against the TCP comp as we approach release. 

[dallas]

Lisa Frankenstein

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-8

8 tickets sold (+0)

 

Comps:

(0.222x) of Mean Girls - $0.72 Million

 

Like previously, I don't have many good comps for this, so I'm only going off Mean Girls here. Overall, not great but should hit $1M previews and a double digit OW. 

[HummingLemon496]

It's Argyllover

[keysersoze123]

On 1/30/2024 at 9:50 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 21435/333467 407152.97 1675 shows +3217

Friday - 20571/651292 367211.93 3248 shows +4038

 

Meh acceleration. I hope reviews are out tomorrow and it sees some boost. Otherwise the finish will be ugly and its previews drop down close to low 2s and mid teens OW. 

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 25151/334028 472561.73 1676 shows +3716

Friday - 25759/652957 455110.81 3267 shows +5188

 

Its DOA at this point. I would be happy with 15m OW at this point. Could miss 2m previews as well. 

[dallas]

19 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

It's Argyllover

Yep, hopefully The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare does better because Henry Cavill desperately needs a win.