The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D4, T-18, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 29

New Sales: 4

Growth: 16%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.2

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/3

Early Evening: 23/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 20/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 6/2

 

D4 Comps

0.246x HG:BoSS for $1.4M

0.644x Madame Web for $3.9M 

0.592x Aquaman 2 for $2.7M

 

Doing okay. Still tough to read this one due to various factors like the screen allocation decisions and being farther out than the comps.

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D5, T-17, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 33

New Sales: 4

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 25/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 24/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 6/2

 

D4 Comps

0.250x HG:BoSS for $1.4M

0.559x Madame Web for $3.4M 

0.478x Aquaman 2 for $2.2M

 

T-17 Comps

0.094x Dune 2 for $0.9M

0.109x The Marvels for $0.7M

3.667x Wonka for $12.8M

 

I really don't have good comps. I can only switch the D5 comps to T minus by the weekend or so, so I threw the only other options I had that don't help matters much.

[Minnale101]

@Grand Cine @Porthos @vafrow ran out of reacts for today but wanted to say thank you for the kung fu panda 4 updates, 

 

glad there’s some positivity heading into previews on Thursday 

 

review embargo for rotten tomatoes is Wednesday 12pm est, so if there any extra bump because of reviews it will happen tomorrow 

 

also yeah looking at Friday and Saturday, there’s also way more sales in my city of Brampton. This is definitely catering towards families that haven’t had movie since wonka and migration 

[Brainbug]

IIRC, Godzilla x Kong presales begin today right?

[YM!]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 18580/378162 279825.48 2543 shows +3758

Friday - 27674/569560 413519.36 3676 shows +7848

 

Amazing day for Panda. I dont know if @M37 is extrapolating where this is ending up. I want to see another day of growth. But looking at something similar to what most are seeing. Somewhere around 70K finish which should be ~3.75m previews. 

Any ideas for True Friday based on 3.75M previews? Ik it’s not Summer and will skew older but doubling Elemental’s true Friday presales at MTC1 is great.

[Grand Cine]

29 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

IIRC, Godzilla x Kong presales begin today right?

Yes probably 9AM or 12PM

[vafrow]

23 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

@Grand Cine @Porthos @vafrow ran out of reacts for today but wanted to say thank you for the kung fu panda 4 updates, 

 

glad there’s some positivity heading into previews on Thursday 

 

review embargo for rotten tomatoes is Wednesday 12pm est, so if there any extra bump because of reviews it will happen tomorrow 

 

also yeah looking at Friday and Saturday, there’s also way more sales in my city of Brampton. This is definitely catering towards families that haven’t had movie since wonka and migration 

 

Weekend and mid week on KFP4 is going to do great in the region due to schools being off next week.

 

Last year, due to lack of content from the major studios, Cineplex was airing the low budget Mummies during March break and it was doing really well despite no marketing behind it, and no names attached. People just wanted something to take their kids to.

 

Actual IP animated film is going to be filling up theatres all week. 

 

New showtimes will get loaded up this weekend, and I wouldn't be surprised if KFP4 gets a lot more screens added starting this Friday.

[Grand Cine]

14 minutes ago, YM! said:

Any ideas for True Friday based on 3.75M previews? Ik it’s not Summer and will skew older but doubling Elemental’s true Friday presales at MTC1 is great.

I say 11-12M True friday for me ( at this point to compare with Elemental and Trolls 3 , it's at almost 17M but surely it will be down) , so depending of WOM between 40-45M

[Minnale101]

15 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Weekend and mid week on KFP4 is going to do great in the region due to schools being off next week.

 

Last year, due to lack of content from the major studios, Cineplex was airing the low budget Mummies during March break and it was doing really well despite no marketing behind it, and no names attached. People just wanted something to take their kids to.

 

Actual IP animated film is going to be filling up theatres all week. 

 

New showtimes will get loaded up this weekend, and I wouldn't be surprised if KFP4 gets a lot more screens added starting this Friday.

Yeahh I agree and idk if it’s same in Milton and Sauga but most of shows here are 3D for it and regular shows are morning and afternoon, which will be good for Saturday and Sunday but yeah most of sales are 3D here 

 

cineplex Canada 3D is 18 dollars compared 15 dollars regular for adult 

 

will have 20% higher atp as well 

[vafrow]

14 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Yeahh I agree and idk if it’s same in Milton and Sauga but most of shows here are 3D for it and regular shows are morning and afternoon, which will be good for Saturday and Sunday but yeah most of sales are 3D here 

 

cineplex Canada 3D is 18 dollars compared 15 dollars regular for adult 

 

will have 20% higher atp as well 

 

I have distribution by ticket type in my track. Regular showings are actually leading the way, but it's the Erin Mills theatre driving the way, and that's premium priced even for their regular showings.

 

A lot of the Dolby and even 3D sales are likely driven by lack of options. Many theatres only have a 3D or Dolby option available right now.  Families are price sensitive, and will gravitate to the cheapest showings. That's why I'm guessing the regular showings will only show up today. Families planning ahead are forced to book premium seats.

Edited March 5 by vafrow

[TwoMisfits]

Posting this week's sets to show Dune and KFP2 possible strength and holdover wipeouts...

 

NEW

KFP2 - 2.5 screens (+1 screen - 4 PLF showings - both 10ams and then on a single screen for next 2 early shows, so .6 on PLF)

Cabrini - 1 screen (no change)

Imaginary - 1 screen (no change)

Shaitaan - 1 screen (new)

Oscar Returns (4 movies) - 1 screen

Oscar Shorts - .5 screen

 

RETURNING

Dune 2 - 4.5 screens (18 showings - 5 PLF, 13 reg) - lost 2 PLF equivalent showings, that's it.  Gonna be a nice weekend possible.

Bob Marley - 1 screen

Madame Web - 1 showing

Chosen - 1 showing

Foreign film - 1 showing

 

This is 13.25 of 14 screens - .75 is being held - probably for either an extra Oscar nom movie or foreign film

 

GONE Bloodbath

Demon Slayer (easy come, easy go), Migration (finally dropped), Argylle, The Beekeeper (finally dropped), Drive Away Dolls, Ordinary Angels, multiple foreign films, multiple different Oscar one show films for Oscar week

 

Edited March 5 by TwoMisfits

[TwoMisfits]

2nd non-Plf went all in on Panda

 

NEW

KFP4 - 3.5 screens - 19 showings (loses a few late nights - it's 4 screens by day)

Cabrini - 1 screen

Imaginary - 1 screen

4 foreign films split - 1.5 screens

 

Returning

Dune - 3 screens (more late shows than early)

Bob Marley - 1 screen

The Chosen - .5 screen

Madame Web - 1 showing

 

Gone

Demon Slayer, Wonka (finally gone), Drive Away Dolls, Ordinary Angels, some foreign films

[M37]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 18580/378162 279825.48 2543 shows +3758

Friday - 27674/569560 413519.36 3676 shows +7848

 

Amazing day for Panda. I dont know if @M37 is extrapolating where this is ending up. I want to see another day of growth. But looking at something similar to what most are seeing. Somewhere around 70K finish which should be ~3.75m previews. 

I wasn't, because frankly the data on kids movies is lacking, with MTC1 updates posted sporadically and often expected values too low for Porthos to do a full (only Q&D) track, and a lot of Tue/Wed openings; fewer data points means higher uncertainty and limits ability to extrapolate. But since you asked, went thread diving for some quick data...

 

70K final seems a bit high from this point; sales should double (+100%+) from T-1 to T-F, but probably not double over the next two days to put that total sales number in play.  More like (roughly) 25-30K by T-1, and 50-60K+ final. But with that said, family films have a higher PSM (underindex) for MTC1, so if lands in ~$66K/tix range of Trolls and Migration, would project to ~$3.3-$4.0M for previews (the midpoint being almost exactly the $3.75M value you suggested). However, Elemental was much lower at only $53/tix, and while that's almost certainly too low here given Pixar adults and Disney family, uh, struggles, something in $60/tix range wouldn't shock me

 

Certainly higher than I though before diving into it, but also not a great comp data set, plus the Xfinity deal impact and Spring Break, so take all of this with some grains of salt. Would say $3M+ looks more likely than not (but keep in mind Trolls as the last non-holiday/summer animated opening also finished pretty weak), while if everything breaks right could see $4M in play

[Scubasteve716]

4 hours ago, leoh said:

It seems WB 25% co-finance is related to the expensive distribution costs (which includes marketing). WB does seem to get around 20% from net box office. 
 

What few people seem to member is that Legendary is now a Sony partner, they broke their relationship with Warner in 2022 and signed a deal with Sony.

 

So yeah Duna and monster-verse sequels will be distributed by Sony in the upcoming years, all of them Legendary properties.

(I don’t remember who, but I think it was either @dallas, @Shawn Robbins or @charlie Jatinder who explained some time ago the WB mistakes that led Legendary cut ties with them to sign with Sony)
 

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/legendary-entertainment-sony-deal-warner-bros-1235443325/amp/

This isn’t true WB can choose to continue existing projects - can’t see why they wouldn’t keep Dune I would imagine they’d keep monsterverse and Meg too. If they financed 25% of the film and are distributing they are probably getting close to 1/3 the box office not 20%. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cabrini	T-3	Jax	4	9	102	102	866	11.78%
		Phx	6	11	54	54	1,025	5.27%
		Ral	7	12	48	48	1,340	3.58%
	Total		17	32	204	204	3,231	6.31%
Imaginary	T-3	Jax	5	12	28	28	1,197	2.34%
		Phx	5	9	27	27	978	2.76%
		Ral	7	13	22	22	1,109	1.98%
	Total		17	34	77	77	3,284	2.34%
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-3	Jax	5	39	31	126	4,580	2.75%
		Phx	6	32	25	180	5,003	3.60%
		Ral	8	44	29	185	5,047	3.67%
	Total		19	115	85	491	14,630	3.36%

 

Kung Fu Panda T-3 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .646x (2m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .413x (2.58m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .328x (1.84m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .592x (3.26m)

 - Elemental - 1.69x (4.05m)

 - Super Pets - 2.82x (6.21m)

 - Minions 2 - .603x (6.48m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 4.91x (6.43m)

 

Growth model forecast - 3.72m

 

Imaginary T-3 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .238x (1.19m)

 - Escape Room 2 - 1.04x (1.25m)

 - Invitation - 1.88x (1.46m)

 - Old - .77x (1.16m)

 

Growth model forecast - 1.28m

 

Cabrini T-3 comps

 - Sound of Freedom - .097x (504k)

 - Left Behind - .779x (475k)

 - I Heard the Bells - .492x (380k)

 - Jesus Revolution - .137x (452k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cabrini	T-2	Jax	5	9	2	104	866	12.01%
		Phx	6	13	3	57	1,171	4.87%
		Ral	7	12	3	51	1,340	3.81%
	Total		18	34	8	212	3,377	6.28%
Imaginary	T-2	Jax	5	15	1	29	1,371	2.12%
		Phx	5	10	2	29	1,317	2.20%
		Ral	7	13	11	33	1,109	2.98%
	Total		17	38	14	91	3,797	2.40%
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-2	Jax	5	48	21	147	5,315	2.77%
		Phx	6	46	51	231	6,226	3.71%
		Ral	8	45	29	214	5,095	4.20%
	Total		19	139	101	592	16,636	3.56%

 

Kung Fu Panda T-2 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .646x (2m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .408x (2.55m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .379x (2.12m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .564x (3.1m)

 - Elemental - 1.62x (3.88m)

 - Super Pets - 2.79x (6.14m)

 - Minions 2 - .509x (5.48m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 4.08x (5.35m)

 - Spider-verse 2 - .147x (2.55m)

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Kung Fu Panda 4	65.36%	25.14%	-	20.57%
Haunted Mansion	57.83%	30.12%	20.44%	20.66%
Sonic 2 (Total)	62.05%	24.55%	22.04%	22.02%
Turtles Total	51.95%	31.71%	20.80%	4.41%
Lightyear Total	73.55%	44.63%	-	26.66%
Elemental	55.08%	-	-	25.77%
Super Pets	76.67%	40.83%	43.66%	21.84%
Minions 2	-	-	-	42.75%
Boss Baby 2	202.08%	45.83%	84.62%	45.00%

 

Growth rates over three day periods.  Tracking pretty closely with Sonic 2 so far, we'll see if that keeps up.  Hoping for a good increase over the next few days, but to me it's looking like it's headed for <3m at this pace...

 

Growth model forecast - 3.61m (not believing in this for now)

 

Imaginary T-2 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .224x (1.12m)

 - Escape Room 2 - .892x (1.07m)

 - Invitation - 1.358x (1.05m)

 - Old - .689x (1.03m)

 - Boogeyman - .82x (820k)

 

I'm only looking at PG-13 comps as they tend to perform differently than R, especially for horror.  Yesterday was worse than every comp though, so not a great sign.

 

Growth model forecast - 991k

 

Cabrini T-2 comps

 - Sound of Freedom - .087x (452k)

 - Left Behind - .671x (410k)

 - I Heard the Bells - .474x (366k)

 - Jesus Revolution - .136x (450k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-17	Jax	5	56	4	80	8,681	0.92%
		Phx	6	50	7	93	8,790	1.06%
		Ral	8	36	7	99	5,244	1.89%
	Total		19	142	18	272	22,715	1.20%

 

T-17 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.236x (3.83m)

 - Shazam 2 - .786x (2.67m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.253x (5.14m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .784x (4.94m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .739x (4.14m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .435x (3.82m)

 

Forecast - 4.13m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-16	Jax	5	56	3	83	8,681	0.96%
		Phx	6	50	1	94	8,790	1.07%
		Ral	8	37	7	106	5,354	1.98%
	Total		19	143	11	283	22,825	1.24%

 

T-16 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.194x (3.7m)

 - Shazam 2 - .767x (2.61m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.215x (4.98m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .708x (4.46m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .695x (3.89m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .445x (3.92m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - 1.215 (5.47m) (First day of sales)

 

Forecast - 4.22m

[leoh]

4 hours ago, Minnale101 said:

@Grand Cine @Porthos @vafrow ran out of reacts for today but wanted to say thank you for the kung fu panda 4 updates, 

 

glad there’s some positivity heading into previews on Thursday 

 

review embargo for rotten tomatoes is Wednesday 12pm est, so if there any extra bump because of reviews it will happen tomorrow 

 

also yeah looking at Friday and Saturday, there’s also way more sales in my city of Brampton. This is definitely catering towards families that haven’t had movie since wonka and migration 

social media embargo was already lifted, didn't you see the first reactions?

 

but yeah full reviews only tomorrow.

[leoh]

2 hours ago, Scubasteve716 said:

This isn’t true WB can choose to continue existing projects - can’t see why they wouldn’t keep Dune I would imagine they’d keep monsterverse and Meg too. If they financed 25% of the film and are distributing they are probably getting close to 1/3 the box office not 20%. 

 

WB can’t choose anything, the solo owner is Legendary and they do whatever they want with their property. 

 

You could try to read variety article that I mentioned. They explain the how process that made Legendary leave WB and sign with Sony.  

[Minnale101]

3 minutes ago, leoh said:

social media embargo was already lifted, didn't you see the first reactions?

 

but yeah full reviews only tomorrow.

Yeahh but that was one they flew people out too watch, i rarely seen the early reviews of people get flown out being bad 

 

so tomorrow will give better indication 

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, YM! said:

Any ideas for True Friday based on 3.75M previews? Ik it’s not Summer and will skew older but doubling Elemental’s true Friday presales at MTC1 is great.

Let us confirm with another day of how the pace goes. Only wrinkle is the Xfinity free tickets deal. Unlike other deals, this impacts not just MTC1 but any chain on Fandango. That will boost its OW. 

 

I am thinking 10K, 15K, 30K, 80K (its outside summer) low 160Kish finish for around 10m true friday. 

[Maggie]

Guys, how is Godzilla VS Kong doing? Any updates?