Jump to content

Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

482

3144

97492

3.2%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

180

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-11

(0.554x) of Dune 2 $5.13M  

 

Comps average: $5.13M

 

Another big increase. Now over $5M

Something off here. Either Dune was very poor in Florida or Ghostbuster has some boost. Dune comp shouldn’t be $5M+ for GB, more so if you including IMAX EA.

 

In MiniTC2, it will be $1.8M and here Dune was an under-performer. 
 

MTC1 comp be $3.2M for THU alone & $2.6M including EA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



14 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (T-11):

Day: T-11 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 19 theaters 106 29 354 19591 1.81

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 6 0 4.38
MTC1: 86 17 62.77
Marcus: 11 2 8.03
Alamo: 7 2 5.11
Other chains: 33 12 24.09

 

Comps:

1.25x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.63 Million

1.46x Wonka: $5.12 Million

0.82x BoSS: $4.73 Million

0.69x TMNT (w/ EA): $3.78 Million

2.07x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $6.42 Million

0.4x Indy 5: $2.9 Million

 

Average: $4.76 Million

 

Numbers pulled earlier than usual because of an Oscars watch party, and this should be the bottom of the U curve, but it's a bad update nonetheless. Rolling with these comps from now on, a bit all over the place but I'm really not sure how this is going to behave from here.


really good increase and matches perfectly @TheFlatLannister tracking in Florida as well.

 

it seems we’re going to have a third hit in March!!!! Really good news for theaters!!!!! 
 

 

 

Edited by leoh
Link to comment
Share on other sites



22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-12, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 48

New Sales: 3

Growth: 7%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 40/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 38/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 7/2

 

T-13 Comps

0.407x HG:BoSS for $2.3M

0.814x Madame Web for $4.9M 

1.655x Aquaman 2 for $7.4M

0.101x Dune 2 for $1.0M

0.134x The Marvels for $0.9M

1.846x Wonka for $6.5M

 

Nothing too interesting. 

 

I did do a pull on last night for Friday sales, which was 166, or 3.45x it's current Thursday. That's encouraging i figure. 

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-11, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 55

New Sales: 7

Growth: 15%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 47/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 42/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 10/2

 

T-13 Comps

0.417x HG:BoSS for $2.4M

0.859x Madame Web for $5.2M 

1.477x Aquaman 2 for $6.5M

0.112x Dune 2 for $1.1M

0.152x The Marvels for $1.0M

2.115x Wonka for $7.4M

Average: 3.9

 

Steady growth continues.

 

I'm waiting on the full showtime sets to hit on Tuesday night. I think that'll help this along. At the same time, there's a few other movies going up for sale this week, and I do wonder if that's going to hurt or help sales here.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Something off here. Either Dune was very poor in Florida or Ghostbuster has some boost. Dune comp shouldn’t be $5M+ for GB, more so if you including IMAX EA.

 

In MiniTC2, it will be $1.8M and here Dune was an under-performer. 
 

MTC1 comp be $3.2M for THU alone & $2.6M including EA.

Dune pace wasn’t great here 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Monkey Man up for sale on MTC4 in Canada.

 

All three films I intended to track over the next couple of months are all starting this week.

 

This will be a slow burn, so won't be too onerous. Like Fall Guy, I'll likely try to not update daily though.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites





On 3/10/2024 at 9:33 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Arthur the King T-4 Jax 5 14 0 10 1,173 0.85%
    Phx 6 15 3 16 1,955 0.82%
    Ral 7 20 3 14 1,779 0.79%
  Total   18 49 6 40 4,907 0.82%

 

T-4 comps

 - Peter Rabbit - .588x (529k)

 - Dog - missed

 - Jungle Cruise - .197x (529k)

 - Stillwater - 1.9x (533k)

 - Otto (expansion) - .698x (431k)

 - King Richard (OD) - .494x (957k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 558k

 

(Pretty interesting that three comps are right at 530k)

 

Let me know if anyone has any other comp suggestions.  I'm also eying a couple other Wahlberg movies Uncharted and Father Stu.

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
American Society T-3 Jax 4 9 8 8 770 1.04%
    Phx 4 9 9 9 993 0.91%
    Ral 5 14 6 6 1,348 0.45%
  Total   13 32 23 23 3,111 0.74%
Arthur the King T-3 Jax 5 14 0 10 1,173 0.85%
    Phx 6 15 4 20 1,955 1.02%
    Ral 7 20 2 16 1,779 0.90%
  Total   18 49 6 46 4,907 0.94%
Love Lies Bleeding T-3 Jax 3 8 4 4 608 0.66%
    Phx 6 14 27 27 1,096 2.46%
    Ral 7 19 23 23 1,794 1.28%
  Total   16 41 54 54 3,498 1.54%
One Life T-3 Jax 4 10 5 5 662 0.76%
    Phx 2 5 4 4 448 0.89%
    Ral 1 3 0 0 174 0.00%
  Total   7 18 9 9 1,284 0.70%

 

Arthur T-3 comps

 - Peter Rabbit - .529x (476k)

 - Dog - .613x (773k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .12x (520k)

 - Stillwater - 1.77x (495k)

 - Otto (expansion) - .648x (411k)

 - King Richard (OD) - .315x (611k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 521k

 

Love Lies T-3 comps

 - Last Night in Soho - .75x (563k)

 - Ambulance - .9x (630k)

 - Bones & All - 1.35x (466k)

 - Men - .818x (346k)

 - X - .844x (371k)

Size adjusted comps - 465k (I would lean more on the last two comps as A24 tends to have a higher presale rate)

 

American Society T-3 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .359x (180k)

 - Joy Ride - .418x (376k)

 - House Party - .821x

 - Vengeance - .852x

 - Family Camp - .742x

 

One Life T-3 comps

 - Joe Bell - 1.5x

 - She Said - .474x (76k)

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites



On 3/10/2024 at 9:35 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Ghostbusters: FE T-11 Jax 5 56 0 111 8,681 1.28%
    Phx 6 53 -2 122 9,018 1.35%
    Ral 8 39 2 131 5,604 2.34%
  Total   19 148 0 364 23,303 1.56%

 

T-11 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.127x (3.49m)

 - Shazam 2 - .813x (2.76m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.24x (5.08m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .631x (3.97m

 - TMNT (Total) - .655x (3.67m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .426x (3.75m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .831x (3.74m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.84m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .915x (5.85m)

 - Morbius - .634x (3.61m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Ghostbusters: FE T-10 Jax 5 56 6 117 8,681 1.35%
    Phx 6 53 0 122 9,018 1.35%
    Ral 8 39 5 136 5,604 2.43%
  Total   19 148 11 375 23,303 1.61%

 

T-10 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.123x (3.48m)

 - Shazam 2 - .821x (2.79m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.24x (5.09m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .614x (3.87m

 - TMNT (Total) - .627x (3.51m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .415x (3.65m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .786x (3.54m)

 - Uncharted - .972x (3.59m)

 - Indiana Jones - .457x (3.29m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.76m

 

Pretty steady here over the last week.  Been dropping a little but overall staying in the same range.

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .884x (5.66m)

 - Morbius - .612x (3.49m)

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/7/2024 at 2:17 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews - 18963/529081 335243.77 2701 shows

Friday - 11111/600988 191662.51 3165 shows

 

2 weeks to go. Still does not look like its going to outopen afterlife. 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews - 21725/529908 383404.47 2709 shows

Friday - 13724/602897 235653.12 3175 shows

 

This is as of now and so Dune 2 comps are under $3m if you assume thursday at 9.35m(Isn't that what @charlie Jatinder said). Anyway I wont compare this with Dune anyway. Let us see how it finishes.  

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews - 21725/529908 383404.47 2709 shows

Friday - 13724/602897 235653.12 3175 shows

 

This is as of now and so Dune 2 comps are under $3m if you assume thursday at 9.35m(Isn't that what @charlie Jatinder said). Anyway I wont compare this with Dune anyway. Let us see how it finishes.  

Some THU comps

HG:BOSS - $5M
Indy - $4.2M
Trans 6 - $4.9M

Wonka - $4.5M

 

Dune - $3.2M THU only / $2.7M including EA (shave 10% from both for atp)
 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Quorum Updates

Love Lies Bleeding T-4: 18.08%

The First Omen T-25: 32.4%

Despicable Me 4 T-114: 54.95%

Longlegs T-123: 15.26%

Borderlands T-151: 29.2%

Terrifer 3 T-228: 25.03%

 

Arthur the King T-4: 41.78% Awareness

Final Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 47% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-11: 60.44% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 91% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 77% chance of 50M, 64% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 36% chance of 80M, 36% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 25% chance of 100M

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare T-39: 16.12% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

  • Like 5
  • Heart 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites





Mind the Gap

I know this really isn’t quite the place to post this analysis, but wanted it in an active/ongoing forum to be able to refer back to it; but hiding most under spoiler boxes to not clog up the thread

So you know that whole $225-$325M domestic total Dead Zone I keep going on about? After further review, turns out it's both very real (and spectacular?), and is not a direct result of a shrinking post-pandemic theatrical audience, but rather started even a few years before COVID

iLPBJTu.png

The Data

Spoiler

Pulled all $100M+ grossing films since 2015. (Why 2015? Hold that thought). Counted the number of films finishing with 10% of a given final domestic gross (shout to @Legion Again for that suggestion), to account for outside factors like competition, holiday effects, etc, that can either boost or hold down the final total. Given that the $100M+ level is only the last 15-25% of the distribution curve for all major/wide releases, if the sample were random (normal), we would expect to see a continually declining line as values go up, like this

CPzjl52.jpeg

But instead we get clear peaks and valleys, clustering and then voids, and while some of that fluctuation could be noise in a smaller data set, the disparity between those highs and lows is significant enough that to me indicates that there is some additional force/factors at play. Here's how it looks if the X-axis values are continually increased by 10% rather than a flat value (ie so no overalp in the ranges)

We get another small mini-peak around $625M, and what looks like what could be another peak around $100/$110M (but data doesn't go that low ... for now)

FESo6Pt.png

Note: final totals for 2023 films still in release, as well as those cut off by the pandemic in 2020, have been estimated

There are better odds of a film picked at random of grossing $600-$650M than $250-$300M!

Since 2015 only one PG13 or R release has finished with final domestic gross between $235M and $315M. Can you name it?

Spoiler

Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2, with a $281.7M final gross all the way back in 2015

 

The Theory

Spoiler

When I first began pointing out this void, the underlying hypothesis was that there was some unseen bar that had to be cleared, for a film to break out from the more limited audience pool to a broader one. They either had some kind of “it factor” or did not, with nothing in between (until Little Mermaid became one the one post pandemic exception).

Looking at the longer term data set, that’s not quite true: family films quite often slide into The Dead Zone. Stepping back, I suppose that makes sense: the primary audience are kids, and the parents buying the tickets probably have a lower threshold for what family films are acceptable to watch in theaters as opposed to all adults selecting films on their own. But setting those PG family films aside, there is a clear gap between the haves and have nots

 

The Catch

Spoiler

So why does this natural resistance to middle tier grossing films seemingly kick off in 2015? Likely because we saw the domestic market become more top heavy. From 2010-14, the top 5 films released in a calendar year averaged just under $350M each, which accounted for 16.5% of the roughly $10.5B annual total. But from 2015-2019, those same 5 films per year jumped to over $516M on average, now collecting 22.5% of the $11.5B total. To put it another way, the top 5 ballooned by nearly 50% on average, while the overall market only saw 10% growth. Attendance was largely being shifted upwards to the top, at the expense of the titles below.

Perhaps this string of giant “event films” – MCU, Star Wars, Jurassic, etc – began to take up so much attention, not just during their runs but even in the weeks/months leading up to them, that it became more difficult for films a step or two below, that previously been able to grind their way into the Dead Zone, to gain enough traction to do so anymore. They didn’t have the “it factor” of the big brands, and instead topped out at a soft ceiling of ~$230M, most even below $200M. The rise of streaming likely also plays a role in this effect, as with larger new content libraries readily available, it becomes more difficult to pick up those tail end stragglers to add another $20/$30/$50M to the total.

 

The But

Spoiler

After all this verbosity, will we ever see another $250M non-animated film? Almost certainly we will, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there were several this year in particular. Why? The release calendar is largely absent of those top heavy tentpoles, typically with their Spring/Early summer, mid to late Summer and Xmas flags already planted, and probably gives films that were destined to run up again the invisible wall more space to flourish.

The adults who typically see a handful (3-6) movies a year, who in 2022 could have had dates circled for Strange MoM, JWD, BPWF and Avatar 2 (maybe TGM too) probably have only late July’s Deadpool 3 as a must see, followed by (I suppose) Joker, and then … surely IO2 and DM4 will pick up some adults, but after that I guess Beetlejuice 2? And, uh ...? And none of these (at least to me) scream $500M potential (though to be fair, neither did Mario or Barbie)

Looking back at 2014, the last non-pandemic affected year without a true major event film and the top release under $340M (note: Sniper is really a 2015 release), and you instead find FIVE films settling into the void that would open up the following year. So in a year lacking the big draws at the top, should not be at all surprised to see the mid-tier films return, find their way into the Dead Zone, perhaps starting off with Dune II

 

  • Like 18
  • Heart 1
  • Thanks 3
  • Astonished 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



57 minutes ago, M37 said:

Mind the Gap

 

I know this really isn’t quite the place to post this analysis, but wanted it in an active/ongoing forum to be able to refer back to it; but hiding most under spoiler boxes to not clog up the thread

 

 

So you know that whole $225-$325M domestic total Dead Zone I keep going on about? After further review, turns out it's both very real (and spectacular?), and is not a direct result of a shrinking post-pandemic theatrical audience, but rather started even a few years before COVID

iLPBJTu.png

The Data

  Reveal hidden contents

 

The Theory

  Reveal hidden contents

 

The Catch

  Reveal hidden contents

 

The But

  Hide contents

After all this verbosity, will we ever see another $250M non-animated film? Almost certainly we will, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there were several this year in particular. Why? The release calendar is largely absent of those top heavy tentpoles, typically with their Spring/Early summer, mid to late Summer and Xmas flags already planted, and probably gives films that were destined to run up again the invisible wall more space to flourish.

 

The adults who typically see a handful (3-6) movies a year, who in 2022 could have had dates circled for Strange MoM, JWD, BPWF and Avatar 2 (maybe TGM too) probably have only late July’s Deadpool 3 as a must see, followed by (I suppose) Joker, and then … surely IO2 and DM4 will pick up some adults, but after that I guess Beetlejuice 2? And, uh ...? And none of these (at least to me) scream $500M potential (though to be fair, neither did Mario or Barbie)

 

Looking back at 2014, the last non-pandemic affected year without a true major event film and the top release under $340M (note: Sniper is really a 2015 release), and you instead find FIVE films settling into the void that would open up the following year. So in a year lacking the big draws at the top, should not be at all surprised to see the mid-tier films return, find their way into the Dead Zone, perhaps starting off with Dune II

 

 

 

re: The But

 

ATP hikes are also gonna play a part sooner or later.  Yes, as ticket prices rise, some folks will either get priced out or decide tickets are too costly.  At the same time as purchasing power rises and memories fade about how much ticket used to cost, then it starts to ebb back.

 

Or to put a different way, might just see the gap shift a bit as time moves on.  Be interesting to look for at the macro level over the next three, four, five years.

  • Like 2
  • Heart 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



On 3/8/2024 at 5:06 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Did a quick check of Ghostbusters Frozen Empire in Denver and Alamo Drafthouse.

 

Denver Thursday

525/19404

1.535x GB Afterlife T-13 (6.91M)

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 116 2091 5.55%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 110 2005 5.49%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 3 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
598 73 19395 3.08% 13 95

 

0.963 Black Adam T-10 7.32M
0.630 Transformers T-10 5.55M
1.410 GB Afterlife T-10 6.35M
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites



On 3/8/2024 at 5:06 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Did a quick check of Ghostbusters Frozen Empire in Denver and Alamo Drafthouse.

 

Drafthouse Thursday

2409/20889

1.406x GB Afterlife T-13 (6.33M)

 

Friday

2360/26657

1.653x GB Afterlife T-14 (20.08M)

 

Saturday

2665/28172

2.04x GB Afterlife T-15 (33.52M)

 

Sunday

1426/25015

2.52x GB Afterlife T-16 (27.56M)

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Alamo Drafthouse

T-10 Thursday 130 Showings 2620 +211 21171 ATP: 17.01
1.273 GB Afterlife T-10 5.73M

 

T-11 Friday 164 Showings 2624 +264 26739 ATP: 16.90
1.468 GB Afterlife T-11 17.83M

 

T-12 Saturday 173 Showings 3044 +339 28168 ATP: 15.57
1.697 GB Afterlife T-12 27.89M

 

T-13 Sunday 157 Showings 1619 +193 25011 ATP: 14.79
1.965 GB Afterlife T-13 21.46M
  • Like 4
  • Heart 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.