The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

BTW there is no comp between Ghostbusters and Zilla. Zilla in 2-3 days will overtake the then current Ghostbusters tickets sold. That movie is tracking 4-5m range while Zilla should be targeting 8m+ previews. I think movies listed above by @M37 and @Porthos make sense. To me raw data itself will tell the tale. 

 

You're just saying that to get a full track outta me. 

(I was already planning on doing a full track, especially after seeing partial 1:30pm numbers)

Edited March 13 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

You're just saying that to get a full track outta me. 

(I was already planning on doing a full track, especially after seeing partial 1:30pm numbers)

Definitely. 

 

Anyway its OD sales wont be that far off thursday specific number for Dune anyway. 

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

On the GxK & TROtB comp 

 

I tend to agree it will be useful, but more as a top end target. The Transformers franchise has eroded its fan base far more than Godzilla (just reignited by G-1), and was selling during the Mermaid, ATSV and Flash period, which all took up a lot of attention (and A-list limits), plus had PLF / EA which to pull some sales away from Thursday 

 

Personally, I like Black Adam more (for those that have it), maybe Fast X (but way long sales period), or something along those lines, with a bigger level of early/fan sales, but still mostly a walk-up title 

Maybe John Wick 4  Indiana Jones 5 or Dune 2 for another comp

Edited March 13 by Grand Cine

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire 

 

736 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-15

(0.596x) of RoTB $5.25M  

(0.873x) of Hunger games: ballad of something $5.02M  

Comps average: $5.14M 

 

Note: there are 16 showings that are marked as "sold out" so the amount sold could be wayyyy higher 

Edited March 14 by TheFlatLannister
edited ratio

[leoh]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire 

 

736 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-15

(0.596x) of RoTB $5.25M  

(0.596x) of Hunger games: ballad of something $5.02M  

Comps average: $5.14M 

 

Note: there are 16 showings that are marked as "sold out" so the amount sold could be wayyyy higher 

 

cool, but those sold out screenings at Altamonte Mall are def not sold showings, so you’re right for not including them. I mean at Altamonte Mall all IMAX and Dolby Cinema Thursday shows are marked as “sold out”, but in these kind of situations the special needs seats stay available for a while even when the rest is sold out. So It’s probably something else.

Edited March 14 by leoh

[M37]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

You're just saying that to get a full track outta me. 

(I was already planning on doing a full track, especially after seeing partial 1:30pm numbers)

7x8= 56 🤷‍♂️

 

 

Edited March 14 by M37

[M37]

34 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire 

 

736 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-15

(0.596x) of RoTB $5.25M  

(0.596x) of Hunger games: ballad of something $5.02M  

Comps average: $5.14M 

 

Note: there are 16 showings that are marked as "sold out" so the amount sold could be wayyyy higher 

I think something is off with your ratios (both listed as 0.596x) and the corresponding comp values

[vafrow]

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario), D1 (hour 8), T-15, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 51

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 2/3

Early Evening: 27/7

Late Evening: 22/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 2/1

Dolby 3D: 22/6
VIP: 11/4

4DX: 14/3

IMAX: 2/3

 

Comps (against full D1)

1.085x HG: BoSS for $6.2M

2.833x  Madame Web for $17.1M

2.318x Aquaman 2 for $10.4M

3.188x GB:FE for ???

Average: $11.3M

 

I thought I'd do a partial day pull, largely just to set up the template to make things easier tomorrow.

 

Comps are against a full D1, so they'll all improve by early morning pull.

 

I know Aquaman isn't going to be an effective comp for others, but it had a short cycle here, so I think it's going to be a good one for me.

 

Ghostbusters isn't too relevant, other than I thought these two would be closer a month ago. With GxK flying out of the gate, I think it's going to further dampen enthusiasm for Ghostbusters.

[leoh]

59 minutes ago, M37 said:

I think something is off with your ratios (both listed as 0.596x) and the corresponding comp values

a typo probably 

[HummingLemon496]

For Godzilla X Kong I am setting the over/under point as Black Adam Thursday ($7.6M)

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

I think something is off with your ratios (both listed as 0.596x) and the corresponding comp values

I need to get more sleep...

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Love Lies Bleeding T-2: 19.36%

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-16: 52.93%

Monkey Man T-23: 28.2%

The Crow T-86: 24.61%

A Quiet Place: Day One T-107: 33.09%

Deadpool & Wolverine T-135: 48.77%

 

Arthur the King T-2: 43.04% Awareness

Final Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 47% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

 

Civil War T-30: 28.01% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

 

Abigail T-37: 22.52% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 27% chance of 20M

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 T-65: 27.68% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 40% chance of 20M

[filmlover]

I can't be the only one who has to do a double take as to whether the movie being tracked is Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire or Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire right? 

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (T-15, Day 1):

Day: T-15	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	82	289	289	14652	1.97

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		239	239	82.7
MTC1:		201	201	69.55
Marcus:		33	33	11.42
Alamo:		24	24	8.3
Other chains:		31	31	10.73

 

Day 1 Comp:

1.67x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: ??

 

T-15 Comp (also a Day 1 comp):

1.51x Hunger Games BoSS: $8.65 Million

 

Really the only appropriate comps I have right now, but really great start here. Also really healthy non-MTC1 % right off the gate. We'll see how we go from here but very promising numbers!

Edited March 14 by abracadabra1998

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews(T-9) - 23260/533778 408624.76 2744 shows

Friday - 15065/608046 257823.67 3207 shows

 

Daily pace is around 908/774 for thursday/Friday. I did not track afterlife at this point but close to T-4 i had the data. Unless we see some big acceleration this week I think its going to be below afterlife for both previews/Friday. One thing going for this movie is it will have $5 deal for Tmobile/Atom next week. Let us see if that will help it catch up to afterlife. For now I am thinking 4ish previews and low/mid 30s OW.  

 

Edit: Afterlife also had Tmobile/atom deal. 

 

 

It appears Afterlife had some early shows on wednesday as well. 

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews(T-8) - 24336/534706 426650.46 2749 shows +1076

Friday - 16240/609267 277437.48 3212 shows +1175

 

it increased in pace but not enough to hit afterlife number by T-4.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

7x8= 56 🤷‍♂️

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Previews - 18303/550844 363567.31 2875 shows

 

I guessed it almost on point earlier today 🙂 Its quite good. 80% of Dune. But that wont be a good comp as this will be more backloaded than Dune. I am expecting 9ish previews and 60-65m OW. I will update Friday later. 

 

[M37]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

 

On 2/28/2024 at 3:54 PM, M37 said:

personally I think GvK is a sleeping giant (pun intended) and am eyeing a $60M+ OW

Was mostly referencing our Musketeer’s unofficial cut line of $7M preview rather than making a prediction there 

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I will update Friday later.

MiniTC2 FRI > THU.

[charlie Jatinder]

Godzilla * Kong MiniTC2 T-15 Days

Previews - 425/46795 (179 showings)

 

Comps

1.04x John Wick 4 first day - $9.3M

1.06x Black Adam first day - $8M (inf. adj. $8.5M+)

 

Using it only because it also started T-15 Days

1.32x Hunger Games: BOSS first day - $7.6M

 

3.13x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire first day

1.08x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire at same time (7 days of sales)

Edited March 14 by charlie Jatinder