The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I would be less than enthralled if comps got too high. Don't want to give people an excuse to still call it a bomb if it does end up only opening to that $85 mil it was tracking at before.

Nobody is calling it a bomb. It would be a bad opening weekend, but not a bomb

[dallas]

A Quiet Place: Day One

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-21

Tickets Sold: 41

Growth: n/a

% PLF: 48.8%

5 theaters/23 showtimes

 

Comps:

(0.456x) of Dune 2 - $4.24M

 

Pretty solid so far. Should open to 30M, possibly 40M if things go well. 

[AniNate]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Nobody is calling it a bomb. It would be a bad opening weekend, but not a bomb

 

I don't want people to have a good excuse to say that either.

[dallas]

2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Nobody is calling it a bomb. It would be a bad opening weekend, but not a bomb

I wouldn't even call it a bad OW, tbh. It'd be slightly below the first's opening, and given that released in a far healthier climate, 85M for this isn't bad at all. 

[TheFlatLannister]

What IM are we expecting for IO2?

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, dallas said:

I wouldn't even call it a bad OW, tbh. It'd be slightly below the first's opening, and given that released in a far healthier climate, 85M for this isn't bad at all. 

Yeah it would be the biggest opening of the year so far and the second biggest behind ERA"s since Barbie. Maybe that's the better comparison than what the first movie did 9 years ago in a much stronger theatrical marketplace. That opened to 90 the week after Jurassic World opened to 207. Insane times.

[AnthonyJPHer]

22 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Nobody is calling it a bomb. It would be a bad opening weekend, but not a bomb

pleaaase don’t start this again man. It’s tiring

[excel1]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

TWISTERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-47

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
520	1344	102453	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

(0.694x) of Ghostbusters $3.26M 

(1.047x) of Quiet place day one $???

(0.664x) of Dune 2 $6.18M

(0.876x) of Apes $4.38M
Comps AVG: $4.61M 

 

With a long presales window, this is actually pretty good? Nothing crazy, but still much better than even I anticipated. 

 

😎

[Flip]

33 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

What IM are we expecting for IO2?

Probably around 11-11.5x, higher than Lightyear (bad reception) but lower than Elemental (original movie)

[Flip]

On 6/5/2024 at 10:54 PM, Flip said:

Inside Out 2 (T-8)

12 showtimes/219 tix sold (+20)

 

1.738x Bad Boys 4 T-8 (only comp)

 

A Quiet Place (T-22)

 

12 showtimes/114 tix sold (+6)

 

Despicable Me (T-28)

 

22 showtimes/44 tix sold

.678x Inside Out T-24 (had been on sale for a while)

.580x AQP Day One First day

Inside Out 2 (T-7)

12 showtimes/248 tix sold (+29)

 

1.893x Bad Boys 4 T-7 (only comp)

 

A Quiet Place (T-21)

 

12 showtimes/123 tix sold (+9)

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-27) (D2)

 

22 showtimes/50 tix sold (+6)

 

Twisters (T-42) (D1)

 

14 showtimes/36 tix sold 

 

.522x AQP Day One First Day

 

I’m going to track DM4 and Twisters daily for a few days then switch to sporadically since I don’t expect decent sized jumps this far out.

[Flip]

I also expect AQP Day One to overindex for me since it’s set in NYC where some of my theaters are

[abracadabra1998]

Pulled the numbers today for all major releases but only posting them tomorrow morning, need my beauty sleep after a loooooong day and don't have it in me rn to give a report for each one of them. I have to say that this Inside Out 2 update is making me think good things are in store for this movie 👀

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bad Boys 4 MTC1

Early Shows final - 7505/10125 163492.89 47 shows +3056

Previews(T-1) - 50805/621703 909842.50 3279 shows +12877

Friday - 53176/1036976 936019.02 5571 shows +12340

 

Previews pace went up in high teens and Friday pace actually was down from yesterday. That is expected as yesterday was heavily boosted by Tmo/Atom deal. Still this is a very walkup friendly franchise. Last one was at 42333 T-1 and finished at 115040. This may not go that crazy but 110K finish is still possible (~5x T-1 sales). Friday presales are considerably up from last movie. I am expecting bigger OD than last movie but finish lower due to different release months. 

 

MTC2 Early Shows Final - 2142/2949 35315.35 23 shows

 

Early shows should be around ~300K

 

 

 

Bad Boys 4 MTC1

Previews Final - 106950/624555 1836400.06 3308 shows +56145

Friday - 77079/1038664 1334970.29 5590 shows  +23903

 

Good final day walkups. Did not go crazy like last time around. Seeing 6m previews with the early shows (300k ish). OW around low to mid 50s. 

[Relevation]

54 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

What IM are we expecting for IO2?

I was thinking about like 10x in between Lightyear and Elemental, but the FUNKO event that appears to be selling well might push it to 11-11.5xish

 

Which, call me an optimist, makes me think $100M+ is not just easily within play but quite likely imo. Its pacing well pretty much everywhere, fellow kids movie comps like Minions 2, Garfield, and KFP4 are pointing to $11M+ and rising, it has the review bump still ahead so I think T-2 and beyond is gonna move really strongly, most of the comps dragging it down average wise are movies with pretty shit walkups like Wish and TLM (which ok yeah IO2 could have shit walkups but it consistently growing against comps, having fewer reasons to completely fumble at the end like Wish getting panned hard and TLM front loading marketing so much that it had nothing else to pull out near the finish line, and overall just playing well with teens and younger kids makes me think it’ll probably have great walkups, or at least enough to keep even with other kids movie comps), and the entire year has been so barren that this being the first truly big four quadrant movie of the year (and also being the first movie with the potential to do serious business among women since like, Barbie) could just convince a lot of casual moviegoers who haven’t gone to the movies since last summer to splurge on it. 
 

And even just some simple maths makes the $100M+ barrier for IO2 a relatively easy prospect. Assuming an 11x IM, it’s already there if it hits $9.1M THU, let alone the $10-11M+ that the kids movie comps are pointing to. It has the room to fall off a fair bit and still clear $100M when the trendline is pointing way up. Obviously I could be hopedicting and the averages fall back under $9M or it has a weak IM, but I really don’t think that’ll happen and I feel comfortable calling out like $10-11M previews and an 11x IM to a $110-120M opening at this point. If all goes well then next week Pixar back babyyyy

[Relevation]

1 minute ago, Relevation said:

I was thinking about like 10x in between Lightyear and Elemental, but the FUNKO event that appears to be selling well might push it to 11-11.5xish

 

Which, call me an optimist, makes me think $100M+ is not just easily within play but quite likely imo. Its pacing well pretty much everywhere, fellow kids movie comps like Minions 2, Garfield, and KFP4 are pointing to $11M+ and rising, it has the review bump still ahead so I think T-2 and beyond is gonna move really strongly, most of the comps dragging it down average wise are movies with pretty shit walkups like Wish and TLM (which ok yeah IO2 could have shit walkups but it consistently growing against comps, having fewer reasons to completely fumble at the end like Wish getting panned hard and TLM front loading marketing so much that it had nothing else to pull out near the finish line, and overall just playing well with teens and younger kids makes me think it’ll probably have great walkups, or at least enough to keep even with other kids movie comps), and the entire year has been so barren that this being the first truly big four quadrant movie of the year (and also being the first movie with the potential to do serious business among women since like, Barbie) could just convince a lot of casual moviegoers who haven’t gone to the movies since last summer to splurge on it. 
 

And even just some simple maths makes the $100M+ barrier for IO2 a relatively easy prospect. Assuming an 11x IM, it’s already there if it hits $9.1M THU, let alone the $10-11M+ that the kids movie comps are pointing to. It has the room to fall off a fair bit and still clear $100M when the trendline is pointing way up. Obviously I could be hopedicting and the averages fall back under $9M or it has a weak IM, but I really don’t think that’ll happen and I feel comfortable calling out like $10-11M previews and an 11x IM to a $110-120M opening at this point. If all goes well then next week Pixar back babyyyy

Also even if it fell down to like $85M then that still isn’t even bad, as long as it has good WoM then I’d still take the over on $300M DOM and $750M WW

[dallas]

I'm no expert on IM, but if IO2 is able to nab a 10x then 100M should be easily within reach. Should be the first 100M opener of the year, with Despicable Me 4, Deadpool 3, and Joker 2 as the other obvious candidates. 

[Flopped]

Does anyone know how wide The Lion King will go on July 12th for its 30th anniversary? 

 

https://www.ign.com/articles/the-lion-king-will-be-the-latest-classic-to-return-to-theaters-for-30th-anniversary-this-summer

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bad Boys 4 MTC1

Previews Final - 106950/624555 1836400.06 3308 shows +56145

Friday - 77079/1038664 1334970.29 5590 shows  +23903

 

Good final day walkups. Did not go crazy like last time around. Seeing 6m previews with the early shows (300k ish). OW around low to mid 50s. 

T Mobile pushed pre-sales and penultimate day, that made walkups look lower relative to previous film.

[dallas]

 

[AnthonyJPHer]

25 minutes ago, Relevation said:

I was thinking about like 10x in between Lightyear and Elemental, but the FUNKO event that appears to be selling well might push it to 11-11.5xish

 

Which, call me an optimist, makes me think $100M+ is not just easily within play but quite likely imo. Its pacing well pretty much everywhere, fellow kids movie comps like Minions 2, Garfield, and KFP4 are pointing to $11M+ and rising, it has the review bump still ahead so I think T-2 and beyond is gonna move really strongly, most of the comps dragging it down average wise are movies with pretty shit walkups like Wish and TLM (which ok yeah IO2 could have shit walkups but it consistently growing against comps, having fewer reasons to completely fumble at the end like Wish getting panned hard and TLM front loading marketing so much that it had nothing else to pull out near the finish line, and overall just playing well with teens and younger kids makes me think it’ll probably have great walkups, or at least enough to keep even with other kids movie comps), and the entire year has been so barren that this being the first truly big four quadrant movie of the year (and also being the first movie with the potential to do serious business among women since like, Barbie) could just convince a lot of casual moviegoers who haven’t gone to the movies since last summer to splurge on it. 
 

And even just some simple maths makes the $100M+ barrier for IO2 a relatively easy prospect. Assuming an 11x IM, it’s already there if it hits $9.1M THU, let alone the $10-11M+ that the kids movie comps are pointing to. It has the room to fall off a fair bit and still clear $100M when the trendline is pointing way up. Obviously I could be hopedicting and the averages fall back under $9M or it has a weak IM, but I really don’t think that’ll happen and I feel comfortable calling out like $10-11M previews and an 11x IM to a $110-120M opening at this point. If all goes well then next week Pixar back babyyyy

that’s my prediction right now. 110m and if it has the same legs as the first movie (3.94) that gets the movie to about 433m, which would lock 800m WW and put 1b in discussion