The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Dragoncaine]

14m for Oppy would be a 39-40% drop, god damn!

 

And no words for Barbie's Monday if anywhere near 30m pans out.

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I thunk that is too high. But 25m looks probable at this point. 

lets meet in middle.

[martin]

30M Barbie Monday is crazy good...

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, martin said:

30M Barbie Monday is crazy good...

[Fanboy]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

27M is still better than pretty much anyone hoped. 

[Porthos]

On 7/21/2023 at 12:19 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Haunted Mansion Sacto Report [T-7]

543/7723 (7.03% sold) [+44 tickets]

 

0.73777x GBA at T-7             [3.32m]

0.59409x Sonic 2 at T-7       [3.71m]

0.65580x Minions 2at T-7    [7.05m]

1.08600x Shazam 2 at T-7   [3.69m]

0.22419x TLM at T-7             [2.31m]

1.77451x Elemental at T-7    [4.26m]

 

Didn't increase much here locally, except against Shazam 2.  But, as I like to say, Sacto Dark Magic does not necessarily apply to low openers.

Mostly coz I don't have a large database of small comps.

 

The Elemental comp might be the most promising of the bunch (outside of M2, obvs), given it was a low opener itself.  Could mean 5m+ is still on the menu, though if I were a bettin' man (and I'm not), I'd still be in the 4m-5m range right now.

 

Next update will probably be T-3, and then the rest of the way through Thr night (if I feel like it).

 

Quick and Dirty Haunted Mansion Sacto Report [T-3]

919/9852 (9.33% sold) [+120 tickets]

 

0.78080x GBA at T-3             [3.51m]

0.56380x Sonic 2 at T-3       [3.52m]

0.48241x Minions 2at T-3     [5.19m]

1.31662x Shazam 2 at T-3    [4.48m]

0.25982x TLM at T-3            [2.68m]

1.72744x Elemental at T-3    [4.15m]

 

===

 

Shazam 2 comp rose quite a bit, but the Elemental comp dipped a tad.  Again, I never make promises out of Sacramento concerning Quick and Dirty reports, but kinda looking like 4m to 4.5m to me.  Maybe 3.5m to 5m if we want to open up the range.  But no real sign of a breakout locally, mini- or otherwise.

 

(theater screen expansion is also hella held back for a T-3 Monday, with only a couple of theaters expanding by one or two screens — undoubtedly thanks to Barbenheimer)

 

[vafrow]

On 7/23/2023 at 7:09 AM, vafrow said:

 

Haunted Mansion, southern Ontario, T-5 

 

I lied about not doing further updates. I need to put the Barbieheimer energy somewhere.

 

Sales up to 107 for southern Ontario. Almost one for the 123 showtimes.

 

As a general rule, I usually look at the major chain here, that has about 80% of the market, but being so low I took a peak at the secondary chain. It actually has a decent sales pace, better than what I'm seeing out of the primary chain. Not huge, but better.

 

It makes the low sales out of the primary chain puzzling.

 

Haunted Mansion Thursday preview, southern Ontario, T-3

 

Continued growth to get sales up to 170, up 59% from two days ago. Again, this is across the primary theatre chain in southern Ontario covering 41 theatres that serves about 20-25% of Canadian population.

 

Growth rate is fine, but absolute sales still so anemic across such a large area.

 

To put it in perspective, Thursday at my local theatre has already sold more Barbie tickets than Haunted Mansion over the entire region.

 

That said, I could see it benefit from spillover that it will probably do okay on walk ups.

[divesyn]

so is 30m locked for haunted mansion? or barbieheimer is gonna prevent it?

(sorry for asking, i still don't know how to predict a movie's IM)

[Human]

1 hour ago, divesyn said:

so is 30m locked for haunted mansion? or barbieheimer is gonna prevent it?

(sorry for asking, i still don't know how to predict a movie's IM)

Box Office Pro said it opens between 22-32M.  

[TwoMisfits]

For predicting this weekend - at my locals, Barbie is getting more screen protection than Oppy, so I guess theaters are just planning the long haul there...here's the sets...

 

PLF 14

NEW

Haunted Mansion - 1.75 screens (SMALL set) - 3 PLF showings (shared with Oppy)/6 regular

Talk to Me - 1.25 screens - 6 reg showings (extra 9am)

First Slam Dunk - 1 screen - 5 showings

Foreign films (2) - 1 screen

 

Returning

Barbie - 4 screens - 1 PLF/3 Reg (20 showings) - lost 1 screen

Oppy - 1.75 screens - 7 showings - 1 PLF/6 Reg - lost 1 screen

MI7 - 1 screen

Indy - 1 screen (Disney protected this over Elemental)

SoF - 1 screen

 

Drops - Insidious, Elemental - there's just no room left for either

 

Non-PLF 12

NEW

Haunted Manion - 2 screens - 12 showings

Talk to Me - 1 screen - 6 showings

Foreign Films - 1 screen

 

Returning

Barbie - 4ish screens - 21 showings - no change

Oppy - 2 screens - 8 showings - lost 1 screen

MI7 - 1 screen

SoF - 1 screen

 

Drops - Insidious, Indy - there's just no room left for either

 

So, at the 12, there are no movies from before July.  At the 14, only Indy survives from June.  And this is with Haunted Mansion getting a small to medium set.  It's brutal in summer, especially when you have unexpected breakouts,

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/24/2023 at 9:23 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-3	Jax	5	31	41	205	3,813	5.38%
		Phx	6	27	11	155	4,543	3.41%
		Ral	8	30	27	137	3,672	3.73%
	Total		19	88	79	497	12,028	4.13%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-2	Jax	2	2	26	145	395	36.71%
		Phx	1	1	8	118	208	56.73%
	Total		4	4	34	263	603	43.62%
Talk to Me	T-3	Jax	5	15	6	36	1,311	2.75%
		Phx	5	11	7	45	1,258	3.58%
		Ral	6	16	2	21	1,567	1.34%
	Total		16	42	15	102	4,136	2.47%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-3 comps

 - Shazam 2 - 1.184x (4.02m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .124x (2.76m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4.5x (6.52m)

 - Nope - .93x (5.95m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .639x (3.99m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .405x (2.43m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.18x (8.59m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.62m

 

Talk to Me T-3 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - missed

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Escape Room 2 - 1.378x (1.65m)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 3.4x (3.28m)

 - Candyman - .646x (1.23m)

 - Smile (Total) - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 1.51m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-2	Jax	5	34	44	249	3,951	6.30%
		Phx	6	28	33	188	4,613	4.08%
		Ral	8	30	46	183	3,672	4.98%
	Total		19	92	123	620	12,236	5.07%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-1	Jax	2	2	14	159	395	40.25%
		Phx	1	1	20	138	208	66.35%
	Total		4	4	34	297	603	49.25%
Talk to Me	T-2	Jax	5	15	8	44	1,311	3.36%
		Phx	6	17	9	54	1,599	3.38%
		Ral	6	16	19	40	1,567	2.55%
	Total		17	48	36	138	4,477	3.08%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-2 comps

 - Shazam 2 - 1.283x (4.36m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .126x (2.8m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4.517x (6.55m)

 - Nope - .889x (5.69m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .632x (3.95m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .427x (2.56m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.8x (7.55m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - .814x (3.66m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.59m

 

Haunted Mansion pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Haunted Mansion Total	57.83%	30.12%	20.44%	20.66%
Shazam 2	30.47%	11.13%	8.01%	11.37%
Barbie Total	52.32%	31.34%	31.00%	18.68%
Knock at the Cabin	46.04%	25.18%		20.12%
Nope	64.33%	21.18%	19.60%	26.32%
Sonic 2 (Total)	62.05%	24.55%	22.04%	22.02%
Fantastic Beasts 3			27.47%	14.33%
Jungle Cruise	83.24%	26.26%	31.82%	37.24%
Ghostbusters Total			20.07%	20.82%

 

This is where Jungle Cruise really took off.   Similar day to Ghostbusters/Sonic/Barbie.  Based on those three, maybe heading for around 3.6m?  Still time for it to make up ground on the others.  

 

Talk to Me T-2 comps

 - Black Phone - .431x (1.12m)

 - M3GAN - .63x (1.73m)

 - Smile - missed

 - Renfield - .868x (738k)

 - X - 1.551x (682k)

 - Men - 1.468x (621k)

 - Antlers - 2.3x (851k)

 

Size adjusted average - 908k

 

Switched to some non-sequel R horror movies that hopefully are more predictive.  Unfortunately I didn't consistently track most of these so the pace chart is mostly blank.  Currently thinking it gets around 1m with the EA (only one show in my tracked theaters with 5 tickets sold).

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/23/2023 at 8:52 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-9	Jax	5	40	6	63	5,828	1.08%
		Phx	6	59	7	109	8,926	1.22%
		Ral	8	46	11	90	6,080	1.48%
	Total		19	145	24	262	20,834	1.26%
Turtles (EA)	T-6	Jax	4	6	-1	60	384	15.63%
		Phx	1	1	2	25	169	14.79%
		Ral	3	3	6	91	433	21.02%
	Total		8	10	7	176	986	17.85%
	T-8	Jax	5	7	4	119	961	12.38%
		Phx	1	1	8	84	208	40.38%
	Total		7	9	12	203	1,169	17.37%

 

Turtles (Total) T-9 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .22x (4.88m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.02x (6.39m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.71x (8.27m w/ today's average)

 - Indiana Jones - .75x (5.43m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .709x (4.25m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - missed

 - Dune - .936x (4.77m)

 

Size adjusted average - 5.87m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-7	Jax	5	40	7	78	5,828	1.34%
		Phx	6	63	1	113	9,350	1.21%
		Ral	8	46	6	117	6,080	1.92%
	Total		19	149	14	308	21,258	1.45%
Turtles (EA)	T-4	Jax	4	6	37	101	384	26.30%
		Phx	1	1	1	28	169	16.57%
		Ral	3	3	11	113	433	26.10%
	Total		8	10	49	242	986	24.54%
	T-6	Jax	5	7	26	151	961	15.71%
		Phx	1	1	9	99	208	47.60%
	Total		7	9	35	250	1,169	21.39%

 

Turtles (Total) T-8 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .212x (4.72m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.1x (6.89m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.83x (8.22m w/ today's average)

 - Indiana Jones - .884x (6.36m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .673x (4.04m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - 1.35x (6.09m)

 - Dune - .973x (4.96m)

 

Size adjusted average - 5.97m

 

Turtles pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Turtles Total	33.78%	14.21%	20.66%	13.96%
Barbie Total	51.87%	24.47%	18.78%	14.89%
Sonic 2 (Total)	29.41%	16.22%	16.38%	7.40%
Haunted Mansion Total	31.14%	15.57%	15.96%	7.88%
Indiana Jones	10.37%	12.68%	11.73%	4.38%
Fantastic Beasts 3	41.43%	29.64%		14.12%
Ghostbusters Total	23.90%			7.85%
Dune	27.24%			10.63%

 

Sales are very EA driven, so we'll see how that affects things once those days pass.  That plus the mid-week release and discount Tuesday previews are going to make this very difficult to predict.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/24/2023 at 9:27 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-17	Jax	5	30	0	13	4,872	0.27%
		Phx	5	23	3	38	5,736	0.66%
		Ral	7	25	-1	9	4,074	0.22%
	Total		17	78	2	60	14,682	0.41%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-15	Jax	2	2	0	9	841	1.07%
	T-16	Jax	4	7	8	24	960	2.50%
		Phx	1	1	0	14	208	6.73%
		Ral	1	1	0	9	261	3.45%
	Total		6	9	8	47	1,429	3.29%
	T-9	Jax	1	1	0	2	51	3.92%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	123	0.00%
	Total		3	3	0	2	174	1.15%

 

Gran Turismo (Total) T-17 comps

 - F9 - .268x (1.9m)

 - John Wick 4 - .202x (1.8m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .188x (1.66m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .536x (2.48m w/ today's average)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-16	Jax	5	30	0	13	4,872	0.27%
		Phx	5	23	0	38	5,736	0.66%
		Ral	7	25	0	9	4,074	0.22%
	Total		17	78	0	60	14,682	0.41%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-14	Jax	2	2	0	9	841	1.07%
	T-15	Jax	4	7	10	34	960	3.54%
		Phx	1	1	2	16	208	7.69%
		Ral	1	1	0	9	261	3.45%
	Total		6	9	12	59	1,429	4.13%
	T-8	Jax	1	1	0	2	51	3.92%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	123	0.00%
	Total		3	3	0	2	174	1.15%

 

Gran Turismo (Total) T-16 comps

 - F9 - .258x (1.83m)

 - John Wick 4 - .215x (1.92m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .204x (1.8m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .549x (2.47m w/ today's average)

[M37]

Sure looks like ~$4M preview for Haunted Mansion for me, maybe a bit below, but even with a moderate 8x+ IM its clearing $30M for OW

Edited July 25, 2023 by M37

[Brainbug]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

Sure looks like ~$4M preview for Haunted Mansion for me, maybe a bit below, but even with a moderate 8x+ IM its clearing $30M for OW

 

30M OW would be good in a vacuum, but that 157M budget really is baggage for it.

[Porthos]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Haunted Mansion Sacto Report [T-3]

919/9852 (9.33% sold) [+120 tickets]

 

0.78080x GBA at T-3             [3.51m]

0.56380x Sonic 2 at T-3       [3.52m]

0.48241x Minions 2at T-3     [5.19m]

1.31662x Shazam 2 at T-3    [4.48m]

0.25982x TLM at T-3            [2.68m]

1.72744x Elemental at T-3    [4.15m]

 

===

 

Shazam 2 comp rose quite a bit, but the Elemental comp dipped a tad.  Again, I never make promises out of Sacramento concerning Quick and Dirty reports, but kinda looking like 4m to 4.5m to me.  Maybe 3.5m to 5m if we want to open up the range.  But no real sign of a breakout locally, mini- or otherwise.

 

(theater screen expansion is also hella held back for a T-3 Monday, with only a couple of theaters expanding by one or two screens — undoubtedly thanks to Barbenheimer)

 

 

One thing to add to this.   Haven't been paying close enough attention or just forgot about it, but there aren't any Early Access showings for Haunted Mansion locally (at least that I can tell — is it an AMC exclusive by any chance?).  So that might be mucking the comp a bit.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Porthos

[abracadabra1998]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

One thing to add to this.   Haven't been paying close enough attention or just forgot about it, but there aren't any Early Access showings for Haunted Mansion locally (at least that I can tell — is it an AMC exclusive by any chance?).  So that might be mucking the comp a bit.

 

In MSP, just the two AMCs with a Dolby screen have it

[katnisscinnaplex]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

One thing to add to this.   Haven't been paying close enough attention or just forgot about it, but there aren't any Early Access showings for Haunted Mansion locally (at least that I can tell — is it an AMC exclusive by any chance?).  So that might be mucking the comp a bit.

Yep, it's AMC only (114 in my sample on Friday)

[Hilts]

Just thinking aloud here but would MI7 be a reasonable recent comp for TMNT?

 

Appreciate volumes may not be especially comparable but in terms of pace given the mid-week opening and EA shows the prior weekend/Monday

 

🤷‍♂️

[Flip]

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

30M OW would be good in a vacuum, but that 157M budget really is baggage for it.

157m? Disney budgets are crazy