The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

A Quiet Place (T-9)

 

12 showtimes/203 tix sold (+29)

1.02x Inside Out 2 (T-9) [13.26m*]
1.69x Bad Boys 4 (T-9) [9.43m]
5.97x Watchers (T-9) [5.97m]

* take this with a grain of salt, due to both genre differences and AQP over indexing since I’m tracking NYC where the movie takes place.

 

for now Watchers comp is probably the best to follow

A Quiet Place (T-8)

 

12 showtimes/217 tix sold (+14)

.99x Inside Out 2 (T-8) [12.88m*]
1.72x Bad Boys 4 (T-8) [9.59m]
4.72x Watchers (T-8) [4.72m]

* take this with a grain of salt, due to both genre differences and AQP over indexing since I’m tracking NYC where the movie takes place.

 

for now Watchers comp is probably the best to follow

[Flip]

Trying to predict Thursday for IO2:

 

39 showtimes/822 tickets sold

 

1.22x Inside Out 2 previews (T-1) [15.86m]

.43x Inside Out 2 1st Friday (T-1) [21.74m]
 

Walkups should be better than previews, so I’m thinking something between 18-19m

[crazymoviekid]

On 6/18/2024 at 1:48 PM, crazymoviekid said:

The Bikeriders:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 7 Tickets

 

Back to Black: $.38M

Challengers: $.79M

KotFM: $.75M

Asteroid City: $.40M

Elvis: $.77M 

 

Most comps are going to $.75M so I'll stick with that for now.

The Bikeriders:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 6 Tickets

Theater 2: 16 Tickets

 

Back to Black: $.34M

Challengers: $.99M

KotFM: $1.02M

Asteroid City: $.43M

Elvis: $.83M 

 

We're back!! $1M is back on the menu.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 8 Tickets

Theater 2: 17 Tickets

 

Back to Black: $.80M

Challengers: $1.30M

KotFM: $2.10M

Asteroid City: $1.51M

Elvis: $1.34M 

 

Another good jump, but still not stellar numbers overall. Will go for $1.25M-$1.5M.

[Pinacolada]

24 minutes ago, crazymoviekid said:

The Bikeriders:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 6 Tickets

Theater 2: 16 Tickets

 

Back to Black: $.34M

Challengers: $.99M

KotFM: $1.02M

Asteroid City: $.43M

Elvis: $.83M 

 

We're back!! $1M is back on the menu.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 8 Tickets

Theater 2: 17 Tickets

 

Back to Black: $.80M

Challengers: $1.30M

KotFM: $2.10M

Asteroid City: $1.51M

Elvis: $1.34M 

 

Another good jump, but still not stellar numbers overall. Will go for $1.25M-$1.5M.

Please god

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/18/2024 at 9:21 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Bikeriders (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	86	28	160	7469	2.14

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		113	12	70.63
Other chains:		47	16	29.38

 

Comps (no adjustment):

0.26x Civil War: $745k

1.63x Ferrari: $705k

0.98x Iron Claw: $655k

 

Average: $700k

 

Comps (removing Alamo from comps):

0.3x Civil War: $875k

1.8x Ferrari: $775k

1.34x Iron Claw: $895k

 

Average: $850k

 

Not really seeing a million previews from my numbers, but who knows. I welcome other comp ideas but this is mostly what I have for male, cinephile-oriented flicks

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Bikeriders (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	88	71	231	7624	3.03

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		147	34	63.64
Other chains:		84	37	36.36

 

Comps (no adjustment):

0.28x Civil War: $805k

1.25x Ferrari: $540k

1.12x Iron Claw: $750k

 

Average: $700k

 

Comps (removing Alamo from comps):

0.32x Civil War: $930k

1.51x Ferrari: $650k

1.49x Iron Claw: $995k

 

Average: $860k

 

T-1 Hour update tomorrow, still thinking right under or around a million

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/8/2024 at 1:14 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	298	62	62	48842	0.13

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		34	34	54.84
MTC1:		43	43	69.35
Other chains:		19	19	30.65

 

Comps:

0.73x Inside Out 2: ???

1.06x Kung Fu Panda 4: $4.04 Million (17 theaters)

 

Holy number of showings/seats! Pretty good start. I will be updating this on Wednesdays and Saturdays, but I'll be out of town later in the week, so my next update will be at T-14. 

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	298	119	181	48842	0.37

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		111	77	61.33
MTC1:		79	36	43.65
Other chains:		102	83	56.35

 

Comps:

0.83x Inside Out 2: $10.79 Million

1.34x Kung Fu Panda 4: $5.08 Million (17 theaters)

Not bad at this point of its run, all about the final week and walk-ups though obviously

 

[keysersoze123]

Comping previews to full day of box office is not optimal. Walkups on a full day BO would be much better especially on July 3rd. That said there would not good comps for this movie except Mario and DM4 wont be anywhere near Mario.  

[Rorschach]

On 6/18/2024 at 11:09 PM, Rorschach said:

The Bikeriders (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

4 2D showings: 16/268 (6% sold)

 

Friday:

5 2D showings: 35/335 (10.4% sold)

Thurs + Fri: 51/603 (8.5% sold) [+21]

 

Not much change for Thursday, but Friday got a nice doubled boost. Tomorrow, I'll check my old Wednesday-only list to find if there are any films worth comping.

The Bikeriders (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

4 2D showings: 30/268 (11.2% sold)

 

Comps: 

The Northman: $1.76 mil

Elvis: $709k

Furiosa: $1.18 mil

Average: $1.22 mil

 

Friday:

5 2D showings: 41/335 (12.2% sold)

 

Comps:

The Northman: $2.72 mil

Elvis: $1.45 mil

Furiosa: $2.81 mil

Average: $2.33 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 71/603 (11.8% sold) [+20]

 

Comps: 

The Northman: $4.55 mil

Elvis: $2.49 mil

Furiosa: $3.89 mil

Average: $3.64 mil

 

Kinda just throwing comps out there based on what films I've seen others use. I do feel very confident about this finishing around or just barely over $1M previews; guessing full OD will be around $3.5-4M.

Edited June 20 by Rorschach

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Juneteenth - 157131/1248739 2375927.38 7128 shows

 

Can it hit high 20s tomorrow? 

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Juneteenth - 487410/1264673 7486221.13 7366 shows +330279

 

Another insane day of walkups. By my comps this should be close to 32m for the day !!! But its likely that MTC1 over indexed on Juneteenth. 

[abracadabra1998]

31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Comping previews to full day of box office is not optimal. Walkups on a full day BO would be much better especially on July 3rd. That said there would not good comps for this movie except Mario and DM4 wont be anywhere near Mario.  

Yeah  kinda have made peace with the imperfect comps for this, don’t have anything good really. Probably will add a note to future posts

[Cooper Legion]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Juneteenth - 487410/1264673 7486221.13 7366 shows +330279

 

Another insane day of walkups. By my comps this should be close to 32m for the day !!! But its likely that MTC1 over indexed on Juneteenth. 

Nice, I had it penciled for 500k from the ps

[Porthos]

On 6/19/2024 at 1:30 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-37 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28379	33625	5246	15.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

78

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	24.84%		8.94m
L&T		16962	30.93%		8.97m
BP2		16800	31.23%		8.74m
AM3		10475	50.08%		8.76m
GOTG3		10750	48.80%		8.54m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1137/12925  [8.80% sold]
Matinee:    288/4469  [6.44% | 5.49% of all tickets sold]
3D:             534/6801  [7.85% | 10.18% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2748/11535  [23.82% | 52.38% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        69 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    70 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-36 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28333	33623	5290	15.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

44

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

			Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM			21117	25.05%		9.02m
L&T			16962	31.19%		9.04m
BP2			16800	31.49%		8.82m
AM3			10475	50.50%		8.84m
GOTG3			10750	49.21%		8.61m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1143/12925  [8.84% sold]
Matinee:      292/4469  [6.53% | 5.52% of all tickets sold]
3D:              558/6800  [8.21% | 10.55% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         2770/11535  [24.01% | 52.36% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        39 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    38 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

====

 

Slightly against my better judgement,  BP2 comp coming back online tomorrow (T-35).

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, T-15 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 79

New Sales: 7

Growth: 10%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 7/8

Early Afternoon: 29/8

Late Afternoon: 15/8

Early Evening: 28/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 7/7

Regular 3D: 0/5

Dolby: 57/14

Dolby 3D: 4/2

IMAX: 11/10

 

Comps

2.469x Inside Out 2 for $32.1M

1.975 Kung Fu Panda 4 for $9.5M

2.257x GB:FE for $8.4M

4.647x Wonka for $16.3M

19.750x Garfield for $37.5M

26.333x IF for $46.1M

Average: $25.0M

 

Slightly slower dat today, but still doing really well 2 weeks out.

 

Despicable Me 4, T-14 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 91

New Sales: 12

Growth: 15%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.4

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 7/8

Early Afternoon: 29/8

Late Afternoon: 15/8

Early Evening: 40/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 7/7

Regular 3D: 2/5

Dolby: 57/14

Dolby 3D: 4/2

IMAX: 21/10

 

Comps

2.600x Inside Out 2 for $33.8M

1.896x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $9.1M

2.395x GB:FE for $8.9M

3.957x Wonka for $13.8M

22.750x Garfield for $43.2M

30.333x IF for $53.1M

Average: $27.0M

 

Continues to go up. It's staying above 10% daily growth all week, which is pretty amazing this far out. I have to think it's got room to accelerate as well once we're in the final stretch of school.

 

Ticket bookings are primarily in small groups, ranging from 5-10. People booking this far out are likely doing outings with friends and family.

[vafrow]

On 6/15/2024 at 7:17 AM, vafrow said:

 

Quiet Place Day One, T-13, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 22

New Sales since T-20: 4

Growth: 22%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 3/1

Early Evening: 15/5

Late Evening: 4/5

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 6/5

IMAX: 10/4

4DX: 4/2

 

Comps

0.500x KOTPOTA for $2.5M

 0.647x Furiosa for $2.3M

0.407x KFP4 for $1.5M

 

Average: $2.0M

 

Not much happening on this one. I'm hoping it sees a late surge.

 

 

Quiet Place Day One, T-8, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 36

New Sales since T-8: 14

Growth: 64%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 3/2

Early Evening: 26/6

Late Evening: 7/6

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 15/7

IMAX: 13/5

4DX: 8/2

 

Comps

0.514x KOTPOTA for $2.6M

 0.486x Furiosa for $1.7M

0.396x KFP4 for $1.5M

 

Average: $2.0M

 

I've been meaning to do an update here, but honestly, it's been so uninteresting, I've kept putting off posting it. It's staying steady with comps foe the most part with no signs of a breakout. I'm hoping we see movement soon.

[vafrow]

I did a quick count on Bikeriders for my area for previews. It's comping at $0.6M against Challengers and $0.9M against Civil War.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/18/2024 at 4:21 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-16 Days

 

Wednesday - 602/104891 (408 showings)

 

Comps

Inside Out 2 (THU+FRI) - $22.75M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (THU+FRI) - $32M

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-14 Days

 

Wednesday - 735/104885 (408 showings)

 

Comps

Inside Out - $22.15M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $32M

Minions 2 ~ $37M

Minions 2 I don't have exact data, rough comp.

[justnumbers]

Oh damn so we could be looking at a +50M for AQ:DO. I would think this does not have a lower than 10 IM but due to its likely more early demand nature, it could come a bit under that. Even then, I think 9.5 is the lowest it probably goes.

 

With 9.5, it gets to 50 with 5.3M P. Either way, I think we're looking at a +47M at least. Unless previews come under 5.

Edited June 20 by justnumbers

[TomThomas]

Horizon update Horizon update Horizon update

[Blaze Heatnix]

So, is the new Russell Crowe's Exorcism movie selling well? 

[VanillaSkies]

This may give the film a nice push. 
Considering the rave reviews thus far, I wonder if NEON will give this a nice push and larger theatre count. They did well with Immaculate, they might be able to do quite well with this too.